By: @Ryan_Humphries

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It’s time to lock it in for the NFL Divisional Round! This week in the season always provides a great deal of excitement and brings four elite match-ups to the table. For the purposes of this newsletter, we’re going to put our focus towards the full Saturday to Sunday four-game slate. It happens to be the featured slate (aka it provides the best DFS contests) over on DraftKings, though FanDuel’s biggest GPPs are still going to reside on Saturday and Sunday separately. Regardless, players competing on both days are going to be discussed below. Remember to use your FLEX on a Sunday player if you’re playing the Sat-Sun slate just in case some later adjustments need to be made! Let’s get it!

Weather Note: We have another bone-chilling game on deck this weekend with temperatures expected to be in the single digits up in Green Bay. However, in similar conditions in Buffalo last week, while the Patriots had their issues, the Bills had no problem hanging up a ton of points in a 47-17 blowout victory. I wouldn’t let the cold weather impact my decision making this week, particularly when it comes to Packers players who should be more accustomed to those frigid conditions.

Quarterbacks to Consider

Josh Allen, BUF | DK: $7.6k, FD: $8.8k | @ KC

Revenge could be on the mind of all the Bills players who were on the roster a season ago when they fell to the Chiefs in the AFC Championship Game by a score of 24-38. Buffalo did get a small bit of redemption when they knocked off the Chiefs in the regular season this year with a 38-20 dub. Allen went OFF for 315 yards and three TDs through the air with 59 yards and an additional touchdown on the ground. There is obviously no shortage of shootout potential in this game which could easily see 60+ combined points scored. Given Allen’s dual-threat upside, he makes for an easy guy to spend up for in this weekend’s slate. Among remaining playoff teams, the Chiefs have also allowed the most FPPG to opposing QBs.

Aaron Rodgers, GB | DK: $7.1k, FD: $8.4k | vs. SF

Rodgers and the Packers have had an additional week to rest up and many of their starters didn’t play a full allotment of snaps in a meaningless Week 18 game against Detroit. The nagging toe injury seems to be behind Rodgers and he’s been lights out at home this season where he has averaged 23.7 FPTS/gm with a sharp 20:1 TD:INT ratio. The Niners defense won’t be pushovers but it’s Aaron Rodgers and it’s the playoffs, so the match-up matters very little. In 21 career playoff games, Rodgers has averaged 270 YPG, 7.6 YPA, and has thrown 45 touchdowns against 13 INTs.

Ryan Tannehill, TEN | DK: $5.8k, FD: $7.3k | vs. CIN

For the first time in quite some time, the Titans are anticipating having their top three offensive weapons on the field all at the same time with Derrick Henry, AJ Brown, and Julio Jones all heading into Saturday’s game without an injury designation. Tannehill, who comes in as the second-cheapest QB on the slate, will get a notable boost to his upside as a result of having his full complement of weapons at his disposal. The Bengals defense will find itself in many dilemmas as they must decide whether to sell out and stop Henry by loading up the box or if they will play a more balanced defensive scheme. Either way, the Titans are a candidate to put up 30+ real points in this game and the Bengals are certainly capable of keeping the pressure on with a high-level offense of their own.

Running Backs to Consider

Derrick Henry, TEN | DK: $7.5k, FD: $9k | vs. CIN

Having some hesitancy to roster Henry in DFS is completely understandable. He hasn’t played in a game since week 8 and the fact that his injury was to the lower body makes concerns even more prevalent. But, as we all know, Henry was a nearly unstoppable force prior to missing all that time with his foot injury. Even after he was on IR for multiple weeks, Henry continued to lead the NFL in rushing due to how dominant he was across his first eight games (937 yards, 117.1 YPG). It’s possible, perhaps even likely, that the Titans won’t give him his full workload but considering Henry has 28+ carries in 6-of-8 games, even a 75% workload limit could equal 20+ carries. You also have to consider that Henry has been pinned with depressed DFS salaries due to his extended absence. Among remaining playoff teams, the Bengals allow the most FPPG to RBs and they recently lost one of their starting DT Larry Ogunjobi in last week’s Wild Card game, thus leaving the interior of their D-Line a bit more vulnerable.

Joe Mixon, CIN | DK: $6.6k, FD: $7.8k | @ TEN

If you want to gain leverage on this slate, rolling with Derrick Henry’s counterpart in Joe Mixon may be one way to do just that. On paper, this may look like a super difficult match-up as the Titans have allowed THE fewest FPPG to RBs this season. However, only the Buccaneers (270) defense faced fewer RB rush attempts than the Titans (287) this season. In terms of run DVOA, the Titans rank more middle-of-the-pack at 14th. While Henry would have 100% been above him on the list had he not gotten hurt, only Jonathan Taylor and Najee Harris had more carries in the regular season than Joe Mixon. The Bengals will also likely continue to send Mixon a few targets as well. He’s averaging 6.3 targets/gm over his last three starts.

Devin Singletary, BUF | DK: $5.9k, FD: $7.2k | @ KC

The consistency from Singletary is hard to ignore. He came along in a huge way down the final stretch of the season and has secured at least 14.9 DKFP in six straight games, including multiple TDs and at least 24.4 DKFP in the last three. He’s playing around 75-80% of snaps in these recent games and has been able to compliment Josh Allen well. Singletary could also be active as a receiver as he goes up against a Chiefs defense which allowed 6.3 receptions/gm to RBs this season (4th most). 

Cam Akers, LAR | DK: $5.5k, FD: $5.7k | @ TB

So the flowchart all season pretty much said “don’t play RBs against the Bucs.” It was certainly reasonable considering how stout the Bucs are up front which led the 3rd fewest rushing YPG allowed. However, as briefly mentioned above in Joe Mixon’s spotlight, the Bucs had the fewest rushing attempts (270) from RBs ran against them this season. The also allowed 7.1 receptions/gm to the position (2nd most). In their previous four games, they’ve surrendered the 8th most FPPG to RBs, including 7.5 receptions/gm. Cam Akers edged out Sony Michel 32 to 25 last week (53% to 40% snap rate) and also out-touched him 18-to-13. Considering Akers was expected to be the primary Rams running back prior to his Achilles injury in the preseason, his increased involvement doesn’t come as a major surprise especially since last week was his second game played since returning from the injury. It’s unbelievable how fast Akers has returned from a torn Achilles and I certainly wouldn’t expect the Rams to overwork him with 25+ carries. At the same time, despite an inefficient 3.2 YPC average against the Cardinals, he looked like a decisive and explosive runner at times and touched the ball on 56.3% of his snaps. Akers is also more likely to be used as a receiver than Michel would be. That bodes well, given how many receptions the Bucs tend to give up to RBs.

Wide Receivers to Consider

Davante Adams, GB | DK: $8.5k, FD: $8.7k | vs. SF

It’s not exactly surprising, but this slate is overflowing with elite wide receivers. In my mind, this is the most important position to get right this week -- so we start with Davante Adams. Only Cooper Kupp (33.2%) had a higher target share than Adams (32.8%) this season. Adams has also found a great deal of success against the 49ers. He’s hauled in at least nine catches and at least 132 yards against them in four of the last five games he’s played against them -- most recently a 12-132-1 stat line on 18 targets (!) back in week three. Even when he gets double covered, Adams finds ways to get open and there’s little competition to the type of QB/WR chemistry he and Aaron Rodgers share on the field.

Tyreek Hill, KC | DK: $6.6k, FD: $8.2k | vs. BUF

This feels like another potential leverage spot with Tyreek who hasn’t had many stellar games down the stretch this season. However, as most are aware, this man can break the slate at any given moment. Hill went for nine catches for 172 yards against Buffalo in the AFCCG last season. When these teams played each other earlier this year, while it wasn’t a big game from Hill (7-63-1 plus 15 yards run), he did see 13 targets come his way from Patrick Mahomes. The shootout potential in this game has already been discussed (as if it wasn’t blatantly apparent) and, given all of the other WR talent around him who have been more productive recently, it’s possible you could see Tyreek Hill around 15% owned, which is low for a player of his caliber on a four-game slate.

Stefon Diggs, BUF | DK: $6.5k, FD: $7.8k | @ KC

No surprise to see another notable name in this Chiefs/Bills game get highlighted. Due to the rout, Diggs didn’t need to do much last week against the Patriots where he came away with just three catches (on four targets) for 60 yards. His services will likely be required more this go ‘round as the Chiefs will certainly keep the pressure on the Bills. The Chiefs secondary has been on the decline recently as they’ve allowed the 2nd most FPPG to WRs over the last four weeks, including the most FPPG to perimeter receivers (Diggs: 80% perimeter). Diggs has also seen a high number of endzone targets in the last several games and will be a strong bet to bring in a touchdown on Sunday evening.

Brandon Aiyuk, SF | DK: $5.2k, FD: $5.9k | @ GB

With Deebo and Kittle drawing so much attention from opposing defenses, Aiyuk has oftentimes been sort of the forgotten man. In his last four games, Aiyuk has averaged 6.0 targets/gm, 4.8 rec/gm, and 76.8 YPG. Aiyuk has also aligned on the left perimeter for the majority of routes, so he’ll see most of his coverage come from Rasul Douglas (71% left perimeter). The Packers have allowed the 3rd most FPPG to left perimeter WRs over the last two months so it’s a match-up that Aiyuk could succeed in as long as Jimmy G is on target. Among all wide receivers playing this weekend, only Cooper Kupp (99%) has a higher snap percentage than Aiyuk (90%) over the last four weeks.

Randall Cobb, GB | DK: $3.1k, FD: $5.3k | vs. SF

Cobb has not played since week 12 due to a groin injury but he has been activated off of IR and will suit up on Saturday night. With Marquez Valdes-Scantling listed as doubtful to play due to a back injury, Cobb should be on the field for most, if not all, three receiver sets. He may be a nice source of salary relief, especially on DraftKings where he is only $100 above minimum salary. For a bit of a higher price but still very affordable, Allen Lazard (DK: $4.4k, FD: $6k) would seem to be a strong option as well in this game.

Tight Ends to Consider

Rob Gronkowski, TB | DK: $5.8k, FD: $7.1k | vs. LAR

Following some missed time from a mid-season injury, Gronkowski returned in week 11, and in the nine games since, he has racked up 9+ targets in seven of those games. No team has passed the ball at a higher rate than the Bucs this season (65.7% pass play%) and Gronk is going to get looks all throughout this game considering how depleted Tampa Bay’s receiving corps has become with the losses of Godwin and Antonio Brown. Brady and Gronk also have a “little” experience playing in postseason games together.

CJ Uzomah, CIN | DK: $3.4k, FD: $5.5k | @ TEN

It’s not an easy match-up against a Titans defense that has held tight ends in check all season, but Uzomah is the best bet among the cheaper TE options to see 5-8 targets and possibly find his way into the endzone. He stepped up big in last week’s Wild Card game when he caught 6-of-6 targets for 64 yards and a TD. That kind of production is close to his ceiling for this game but, given the low-end salaries, you’d take that all day if he was able to post a similar stat line.

Defenses to Consider

Safe: Green Bay Packers | DK: $3.2k, FD: $4.5k | vs. SF

Pivot: San Francisco 49ers | DK: $2.5k, FD: $3.7k | @GB

Touchdown Call 🏈

Stefon Diggs, BUF | DK: $6.5k, FD: $7.8k | @ KC

Once again, if you have any questions DM me on Twitter or hit me up in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck this week!

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