Written by Ryan Humphries - @NitroDFS | LineStar Chat @N1TRO

We have arrived at one of the absolute best football weeks of the year! As if the NFL Divisional Round shouldn’t be entertaining enough, we’ll have the CFB National Championship kicking off on Monday night! Load up on your favorites snacks and beverages and dig in for a thrilling three day stretch of gridiron action. Oh, and let’s try to make a little coin while we’re at it, shall we?

Quarterbacks to Target

Patrick Mahomes | DK: $7.5k, FD: $8.6k | vs. HOU

There really is an embarrassment of riches at the quarterback position this week. I mean, you don’t make it to the Divisional Round by having a slouch under center after all. Among all eight quarterbacks this week, none have a better match-up on paper than Patrick Mahomes. The Texans defense allowed the 2nd most FPPG to QBs this season. Also, defensively, they had the 7th worst DVOA, which is easily the lowest ranking among all eight remaining teams. People may be slightly down on Mahomes due to the discrepancy in fantasy numbers from this season and last season but at the end of the day, you know what this man is capable of. He should absolutely torch this Texans' secondary, especially after having two weeks to rest up and prepare for this game.

Russell Wilson | DK: $6.6k, FD: $7.9k | @ GB

If Seattle wants to pull off the slight upset on the road at Lambeau, they’re likely going to need a monster game from Wilson. Even though Chris Carson and the Seahawks had the 4th ranked rush offense in the NFL and ran the ball on 46% of plays (6th highest rate), this postseason backfield just isn’t the same with a 33-year-old Marshawn Lynch and sixth-round rookie Travis Homer atop the depth chart. Despite never trailing the Eagles last week, Seattle managed just 64 yards rushing on 26 attempts (2.5 YPC). The Seahawks could easily be forced into a pass-happy attack early on this week and Wilson has two very strong receiving threats at his disposal in DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett. It’s been a while since we got a fantasy ceiling game out of Russ, but the game script could very well lead to one this Sunday.

Running Backs to Target

Aaron Jones | DK: $7.4k, FD: $8.2k | vs. SEA

 As incredible as Derrick Henry and Dalvin Cook are, it wouldn’t be much of a surprise if Aaron Jones ends the weekend as the highest scoring fantasy RB. Jones has exhibited an insane ceiling multiple times this season and across Green Bay’s final two games he received 25+ touches both weeks. Jamaal Williams should be expected to see his fair share of touches, but all indications point towards that being in more a complimentary role as opposed to an even sort of split like as it was earlier in the season. The Seahawks also don’t possess a very stingy run defense. Their 4.9 YPC allowed ranked as the 5th highest average in the league this season and they’ve allowed 31.2 DraftKings FPPG over their last four games. There’s a very strong opportunity for 20+ touches and a crack at multiple touchdowns for Jones this week.

Damien Williams | DK: $6k, FD: $6.9k | vs. HOU

Williams really earned his right to be the RB1 in this offense down the stretch. He was forced to miss three games in between, but over his last five games played he ran for 398 yards on 63 carries (6.3 YPC) and accounted for four touchdowns. Most of that damage was done over the course of four games considering he got hurt in week 11 after running just four times for seven yards. As mentioned with Mahomes, this Houston defense is probably the worst overall unit among these eight teams still left alive, and in the regular season they allowed the 6th most FPPG to the RB position. Williams may not have 20+ touch potential, but for these salaries that isn’t really a must. He has played on 70% of redzone snaps across his last four games and, assuming that trend continues, he’ll have a great shot at finding pay dirt considering Kansas City has a slate-leading 30.3 implied point total.

Raheem Mostert | DK: $5.8k, FD: $6.7k | vs. MIN

Speaking of guys who emerged down the stretch, how can you not like Mostert’s potential this weekend? Mostert scored eight touchdowns over his previous six games and he leads the NFL with a 5.6 YPC average. He also leads all running backs in the league with 1.89 yards created per attempt -- a testament to his elusiveness and ability to produce yardage even when the space isn’t really there. Despite having to cede some backfield opportunities to Tevin Coleman and Matt Breida, he has played on at least 53% of snaps in every game since week 13. San Francisco runs the ball at the 3rd highest rate in the NFL (49.2% of plays) so that 50+% snap rate is actually pretty solid. Minnesota has also had some issues containing RBs as of late, allowing 31.6 DraftKings FPPG over their last four. Mostert stands out as a very strong mid-range RB target.

Gus Edwards | DK: $4.9k, FD: $5.4k | vs. TEN

There is a fair amount of risk with this play considering Mark Ingram is slated to suit up after dealing with a calf injury the last few weeks. I obviously never want to actively root for any player to get hurt, but there is always a chance that Ingram would happen to re-injure his calf during this game. Or perhaps Baltimore opts to make this more of an even split backfield, at least for this week, and not force Ingram into carrying the ball 15+ times. Gus Edwards has proven to be a very reliable backup, as his 5.3 YPC average ranks second in the NFL behind the aforementioned Raheem Mostert. Assuming Ingram does in fact play, Edwards would perhaps be a GPP-only option. But it’s never a bad idea to get exposure to any remotely viable piece to this elite Ravens offense.

Wide Receivers to Target

DeAndre Hopkins | DK: $7.4k, FD: $8.1k | @ KC

You have to imagine that, among the top priced WRs on the slate, guys like Davante Adams, Tyreek Hill, and DK Metcalf are all going to draw more DFS attention and ownership than Nuk Hopkins. I have zero hesitation about playing any of those other guys, but I do expect Hopkins to go overlooked, so I view him as a strong leverage play. Kansas City has actually been very tough on WRs this year, allowing the 2nd fewest FPPG to the position. Still, Hopkins is a top five wide receiver talent and can beat just about any coverage one on one. You also have to imagine that the game script could quickly turn into one that favors the passing game if Houston happens to fall behind early.

Adam Thielen | DK: $6.2k, FD: $6.9k | @ SF

Thielen makes for another leverage play at this position, mostly due to the “questionable” designation he’s carrying into the weekend. He sustained an ankle injury earlier in at practice on Wednesday but it was later reported to be from a cut which required stitches, as opposed to a sprain. While a laceration is probably the better outcome to deal with, we do still have to wait and find out what sort of mobility he’ll have. The Vikings game on Saturday will come just three days after Thielen sustained the injury, which isn’t typically going to be enough time for a stitched wound to heal completely. But this is the first game of the slate, so we’ll have a pretty good idea of Thielen’s status before kickoff. If he can play, we could see Kirk Cousins lean on him as a safety net, much like last week when Thielen caught 7-of-9 targets for 129 yards and really looked more like his 2018 self. The 49ers have also been getting burned in the secondary recently, as their 51.5 DraftKings FPPG allowed to WRs over their last four games ranks dead last on the slate. He’s a risky option but is yet another guy you could gain leverage with.

Deebo Samuel | DK: $5.2k, FD: $6.1k | vs. MIN

In this price range, you really have to love the level of consistency that Deebo exhibited in the second half of the season. Over the 49ers final eight games, Samuel had either a touchdown or 75+ yards in seven of those. In that same eight game span, Samuel’s 49 targets ranked second on the team -- just one fewer than George Kittle’s 50 targets. The Vikings also gave up the 2nd most FPPG to perimeter WRs this season, which is where Samuel runs 74% of his routes. The 49ers are very much a ‘run first’ team but Samuel still stands out as a strong option to deploy this week.

Allen Lazard | DK: $4.5k, FD: $5.4k | vs. SEA

Aaron Rodgers slung 17 targets Lazard’s way across Green Bay’s final two regular season games. Lazard seems to have solidified himself as a primary receiving option behind Davante Adams and he played on 75% of snaps in each of those final two games. Rodgers hasn’t really looked like the quarterback we’re used to seeing lately but if there is a decent chance he looks Lazard’s way 7-10 times, then there is still some really solid upside -- especially with Adams likely to draw much of the Seahawks’ defensive attention.

Marquise Brown | DK: $4.4k, FD: $5.3k | vs. TEN

Hollywood Brown is a bit boom/bust-ish but for his salaries, you have to love the potential. Tennessee’s defense is considerably easier to pass against rather than run against and they gave up the 5th most FPPG to WRs over the second half of the season. In this potent Lamar Jackson-led offense, Brown won’t need a ton of targets to put up a solid fantasy day.

Tight Ends to Target

Travis Kelce | DK: $6.4k, FD: $7.5k | vs. HOU

Between Kelce, Kittle, and Andrews, there are some solid tight ends to spend up on this weekend. If I had to choose just one of those three to rely on, Kelce is probably going to be my guy. He is only practicing on a limited basis due to a knee injury but no one is expecting the superstar tight end to miss this game. After a rather pedestrian first half of the season by his standards, Kelce has come on strong down the stretch, averaging 80.4 YPG over the Chiefs final seven games. Assuming his knee injury isn’t more than a minor issue, I have a hard time seeing him struggle this week. Houston has given up the 10th most FPPG to TEs this season and with Patrick Mahomes at the helm, Kelce should keep on rolling.

Jimmy Graham | DK: $3.3k, FD: $5k | vs. SEA

 Long gone are the days of Jimmy Graham being an elite tight end but this is more of a DvP play than anything. Seattle has been pretty atrocious defending tight ends this season, allowing the 2nd most FPPG to the position. Tight ends are averaging 71.5 YPG on 6.2 receptions/game against them this year. Even though there is no guarantee that he will get an abundance of targets, looks could certainly be funneled in his direction simply due to the Seahawks overall inability to cover the area of the field that Graham will operate.

Defensive Breakdown

Kansas City Chiefs | DK: $3.2k, FD: $4.2k | vs. HOU

The KC defense averaged 12.5 FPPG over their final six games while racking up 11 turnovers and 15 sacks. Deshaun Watson is no Jameis Winston turnover machine or anything but he has thrown five picks in his previous four games while fumbling three times (zero lost). He is also the most sacked quarterback in the league after being taken down 51 times this season, so that should help maintain the Chiefs DST as one of the better floor options this weekend.

San Francisco 49ers | DK: $3k, FD: $4.6k | vs. MIN 

The 49ers defensive prowess took a hit over the course of their final few regular season games but it wouldn’t be a shock to see them dominate this week. San Francisco has had time to rest and get up to full strength and they’ll be taking the field at home where they’ve averaged 12.3 FPPG this season. The Vikings are also dealing with a couple vital playmakers possibly not being 100% this week, with Adam Thielen rocking a stitched up ankle and Stefon Diggs having to miss multiple practices earlier in the week due to an illness (though he practiced fully Thursday). Minnesota also has just an 18.8 implied point total this week which is right on par with the average number of PPG San Francisco allowed at home this season.

Weekly NFL Freeroll + LineStar Avatar

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Once again, you can find me on Twitter @NitroDFS or in the LineStar NFL chat by tagging me @N1TRO. Good luck this week!

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🔥 SuperDraft Multiplier Must-Play 🔥

The SuperDraft Multiplier Must-Play honors for this week fall to Damien Williams (1.7x multiplier). Williams appears to have a pretty firm grasp on the lead RB duties in the Kansas City backfield. Given the match-up with a poor Texans defense and with how quickly Kansas City’s offense can move the ball into the redzone, this 1.7x multiplier just feels too generous to ignore. 

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