49ers at Eagles, Bengals at Chiefs. Four premiere NFL teams meet in their respective conference championship games to decide who moves on to compete for Super Bowl LVII! Let’s get set for a thrilling Sunday of NFL action with some top DFS plays and props to consider across this two-game slate!

By: @Ryan_Humphries

Conference Championship PreSnap Podcast 🎙️

Catch Tyler Wiemann and Shannon Sommerville's run down on this weekend's NFL action!

Also, for anyone looking to roll out some NFL props this week, be sure to check out the info and videos at the end of this article featuring usage of LineStar's new Prop Edge+ for NFL tool. This tool can help make prop bettors some extra cash -- especially on sites like PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!

A free three-pick PrizePicks "Power Play" is posted at the end of this article as well!

Conference Championship DFS Main Slate Rundown 📝

We have nearly made it to Conference Championship Sunday and it won’t be long before we finally find out which two teams will be punching their tickets to Super Bowl LVII. You probably couldn’t script better storylines and match-ups than the ones we have ahead of us this Sunday and it’s sure to be a fantastic day of football! Let's make it a profitable day as well!

The focus of this newsletter will be geared toward the two-game slate (as opposed to single-game/showdown slates) since that is where DFS sites are posting their big money contests (along with several free rolls!). On a short slate like this, it’s going to be difficult to be unique so, for large-field GPP purposes, don’t hesitate to leave a bit of salary on the table in some of your tournament lineups. Even leaving $300-$400 or so on the table will drastically boost your chances of having a unique non-duplicated lineup. Aside from some frigid temps in Kansas City and winds hovering around ~10 mph in both games, there are no significant weather impacts to hit on for these games so let’s get right into some DFS plays to consider!

Sunday match-ups with implied point totals and spreads:

Quarterbacks to Consider

The safe QB plays are…

Jalen Hurts, PHI | DK: $7.2k, FD: $9.2k | vs. SF

Teams don’t make it this far to their respective Conference Championships without some stellar QB play and Jalen Hurts has certainly provided that this season. He has played at a true MVP level all season and, on top of racking up 50.7 YPG with his legs, Hurts ranked 3rd in the NFL in yards per attempt, yards per completion, and 4th in QB Rating while throwing just six picks all season. The 49ers boast one of the top defenses in football but their pass defense did falter down the stretch, allowing 258.3 YPG, 1.8 TDs/Gm, and a 68.4% comp% over their final four games. Hurts receives home-field advantage in Philly this week and he has secured at least 22.8 DKFP in five of his last six games at Lincoln Financial Field.

Joe Burrow, CIN | DK: $6.8k, FD: $8.3k | @ KC

Many would argue that this AFC Championship game pits the top two QBs on the planet against each other. Joe Burrow has certainly held the upper hand in this budding rivalry. In three career games against the Chiefs, which includes the 2021 AFC Championship, Burrow owns a 3-0 record and has racked up 982 yards (327.3 YPG) with eight passing TDs along with an additional 81 yards on the ground and a rushing score. Those numbers are good for a 29.8 FPPG average in his three meetings against Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs. Kansas City owned a below-average pass defense this season (20th in pass DVOA) and Burrow brings massive levels of confidence and a stellar WR tandem with him to Arrowhead Stadium this Sunday.

The risky, low-owned QB plays are…

Patrick Mahomes, KC | DK: $7.6k, FD: $8.5k | vs. CIN

Perhaps the biggest storyline heading into this week’s games is centered around Patrick Mahomes’ right ankle. Mahomes suffered a high ankle sprain in last weekend’s divisional playoff victory over the Jaguars, though he heads into this game without an injury designation -- his availability on Sunday was never really in doubt. A high ankle sprain is not typically an injury that players can get past quickly, but even if Mahomes is limited to strictly being a pocket passer, he’s still a top-three QB in the NFL. However, the Bengals will be fully aware that Mahomes may not be his usual nimble self and choose to bring heavy amounts of pressure up the middle to force him out of the pocket. There’s also a reasonable chance that Mahomes’ ankle injury is overplayed and will impact his play minimally, if at all. So, all of this is to say that if the public is going to shy away from rostering Mahomes in DFS this week, then it’s probably a good time to slide him into DFS lineups at lower-than-usual ownership.

Brock Purdy, SF | DK: $5.3k, FD: $6.9k | @ PHI

Purdy should check in as the lowest-owned QB on this two-game slate. He’s coming off of his worst fantasy game as a starter and will be stepping into an absolute madhouse road environment in Philadelphia. Purdy has provided an awesome storyline but he is still a rookie QB who will be making just his eighth NFL start. With that said, before last week, he had put up at least 16.48 DKFP and threw for multiple touchdowns in his other six starts. He has elite weapons around him and plays behind one of the best offensive lines in the NFL. The Eagles possess a talented and aggressive defense that ranks 1st in pass DVOA but rolling out Purdy at QB will open up a ton of roster flexibility on a tricky two-game slate.

Running Backs to Consider

The safe RB plays are…

Christian McCaffrey, SF | DK: $8k, FD: $9k | @ PHI

CMC was held out of practice on Wednesday and Thursday as he nursed a calf bruise but it was almost certainly for precautionary reasons. McCaffrey logged a full practice on Friday and will be a full go this Sunday. We can expect CMC to handle his usual workload (19.5 touches/gm L12Gms) against the Eagles, who somewhat surprisingly are not all too formidable on the ground. The Eagles ranked 21st in rush DVOA this season and also allowed nearly five receptions per game to RBs. The status of 49ers backup RB Elijah Mitchell (groin) is more up in the air for Sunday. Mitchell is officially listed as questionable. While CMC’s touch volume is secure whether or not Mitchell suits up, those opportunities could rise closer to 25+ total touches should Mitchell be forced to sit.

Joe Mixon, CIN | DK: $6.5k, FD: $8.1k | @ KC

On paper, Joe Mixon draws the most favorable RB match-up on the slate. The Chiefs gave up the 13th most FPPG to RBs this season and THE most RB receptions (112). Mixon was rather quiet in the Wild Card Round against the Ravens but he came through with 123 yards and a touchdown on 22 total touches in a snowy showdown with the Bills last week. Mixon has handled 49.4% of redzone rush attempts for the Bengals this season and, if he lucks out with another touchdown, he has a great chance to land in the optimal lineup based on his excellent all-around volume (15.0 rush/gm, 5.3 TGT/gm).

The risky, low-owned RBs are…

Jerick McKinnon, KC | DK: $5.4k, FD: $6.5k | vs. CIN

McKinnon teeters on the edge of “safe” and “risky” this week. That’s due to how much of his DFS value is attached to his role as a receiver out of the backfield. He handled 11 touches last week, but they all came on the ground and he mustered just 25 yards rushing with zero targets. We can probably expect that to be an outlier performance given how pivotal of a role he had down the second half of the regular season. McKinnon averaged 5.2 TGT/gm over the final six regular season games and reeled in a whopping nine touchdowns in that stretch. If Mahomes is indeed a bit limited with that ankle injury, McKinnon may fill in as a key target on short dump-offs and outlet passes.

Miles Sanders, PHI | DK: $5.2k, FD: $6.2k | vs. SF

Sanders is very hard to trust now that this Eagles rushing attack has evolved into a four-headed committee between Sanders, Kenneth Gainwell, Boston Scott, and dual-threat QB Jalen Hurts. Despite playing just 39% of snaps in the 38-7 blowout over the Giants last week, Sanders still managed to touch the ball 17 times on his 28 snaps. He churned out 90 yards (5.3 YPC) on those 17 rushes. Now the Eagles take on the 49ers’ No. 1 ranked run defense but, when push comes to shove, Sanders should be the heavy favorite to lead this Eagles ground attack in rush attempts. He has averaged +19.3% more FPPG at home this season and, if he lucks out with a touchdown, Sanders could sneak his way into the optimal lineup. He’s a gamble, for sure, but worth a shot in GPPs on a short slate.

Samaje Perine, CIN | DK: $4.5k, FD: $5.3k | @ KC

Perine has produced when given the opportunities this season and he had strong involvement last week against the Bills when he earned a 44% snap%, took seven carries for 33 yards, and caught all five of his targets for 31 yards. Without some sort of injury to Joe Mixon, it’ll be an uphill battle for Perine to match that same sort of snap share and touch volume, but crazier things have happened in playoff football. Also, it’s important to note, per PFF.com, Perine graded out with a 72.4 pass-blocking grade this season -- 8th among all NFL RBs. Mixon held a grim 30.1 pass-blocking grade, 50th among all RBs. If the Chiefs routinely begin to apply pressure on Joe Burrow, Perine could see his offensive snaps rise… though it may not lead to increased touches if he is out there primarily as a blocker.

Wide Receivers to Consider

The safe WR plays are…

Ja’Marr Chase, CIN | DK: $7.6k, FD: $8.6k | @ KC

It’s difficult to match the high floor/high ceiling combination that Ja’Marr Chase brings to DFS lineups. He’s locked into a massive target share following a 2022-23 season where he averaged 11.2 TGT/Gm with a 27.6% redzone TGT%. And it’s hard to forget the Herculean performance he had against this Chiefs’ defense in week 17 of last season when he erupted for 11 receptions, 266 yards, and three touchdowns. Chase plays alongside Tee Higgins, who would be a WR1 on the vast majority of teams. But when it comes to who Joe Burrow looks at on his first read of most dropbacks, Chase holds the clear advantage over all other Bengals receivers. The Chiefs gave up the 8th most FPPG to WRs this season and they’ll have their hands full trying to contain Chase and the rest of the Bengals receiving weapons.

DeVonta Smith, PHI | DK: $6.8k, FD: $7.7k | vs. SF

The Eagles also boast a dynamic WR duo that features AJ Brown and DeVonta Smith. I would never talk anyone off of AJ Brown, but Smith has ultimately stood out as the more reliable Eagles receiver over the last couple of months. Smith has garnered at least eight targets in 10 consecutive games, had at least five receptions in nine of those 10 games, and has caught 70% of his targets on the season. His redzone role isn’t as robust as AJ Brown’s (34.0% RZ TGT%) but Smith’s 25.5% RZ TGT% is nothing to sneeze at either. Finally, we arrive at the match-up discussion. Despite all of the talent that the 49ers' defense boasts, they have struggled to contain opposing WRs all year. San Fran has allowed the 6th most FPPG and the most FPOE (fantasy points allowed over expected) to WRs this season. You can’t help but feel good about Smith’s chances to produce a strong fantasy score this week.

Brandon Aiyuk, SF | DK: $4.4k, FD: $6k | @ PHI

It’s a tough match-up (PHI: 5th fewest FPPG to WRs) with a rookie QB at the helm, but Aiyuk has not been this cheap all season on DraftKings and his $6,000 salary on FanDuel is as low as he’s been priced since week six. Simply put, he’s too cheap to ignore on a small slate. Aiyuk has big-play upside, he averages 6.7 TGT/Gm, and he has caught 68.4% of his targets this season. At the WR position on this slate, only AJ Brown (11 TDs) and Ja’Marr Chase (9 TDs) have caught more touchdown passes than Aiyuk (8 TDs). The 49ers are slight road underdogs in this NFC Championship match which could lead to increased pass volume and further opportunities for Aiyuk to pay off his modest DFS salaries.

The risky, low-owned WR plays are…

Deebo Samuel, SF | DK: $5.7k, FD: $7k | @ PHI

Deebo was able to shed his injury designation on Friday and will not be in danger of missing Sunday’s game. He draws the same difficult match-up mentioned above with Aiyuk, but he won’t come quite as cheap. However, no other wide receiver in the NFL has been better than Deebo when it comes to yards after the catch. The dynamic 49ers weapon led all WRs with 8.8 YAC per reception this season so QB Brock Purdy just needs to get the ball in Samuel’s hands and let him do the rest. On top of his involvement as a receiver, Deebo will mix in with some backfield work as well. Perhaps even more so if RB Elijah Mitchell (groin/questionable) is ruled out. But, really, we’ll take a shot on Deebo this week for what he can do as a receiver.

Kadarius Toney, KC | DK: $3.7k, FD: $5.6k | vs. CIN

From Deebo to “Deebo Lite?” Both Kadarius Toney and Deebo Samuel share a lot of the same qualities when it comes to how their respective teams utilize them. Toney doesn’t have as defined of a role in the Chiefs offense as Samuel has with the 49ers, but he commanded a season-high seven targets last week (caught five for 36 yards) and tacked on 14 yards on his lone rush attempt. Toney played just 20 snaps (27% snap%) against the Jaguars in the Divisional Round but it does say quite a bit about how eager the Chiefs are about getting him the ball with eight target/touch opportunities on those 20 snaps. Toney’s role could grow even more depending on the availability of All-Pro TE Travis Kelce, who tweaked his back in practice on Friday and is now questionable to play on Sunday.

Quez Watkins, PHI | DK: $3.1k, FD: $4.8k | vs. SF

If you’re gunning for a complete lotto ticket, Quez Watkins has some low-owned GPP appeal. His floor is absolute zero but Watkins can be expected to play on 30-40% of snaps and he has been given some occasional deep targets. Watkins has run 75% of his routes out of the slot this season which bodes well against the 49ers, who have allowed the 3rd most FPPG to slot WRs.

Tight Ends to Consider

The safe TE plays are…

Dallas Goedert, PHI | DK: $4.1k, FD: $6.4k | vs. SF

Goedert has his work cut out for him against a 49ers defense that gave up the 8th fewest FPPG to TEs but, down the stretch, both Darren Waller and Noah Fant hauled in TDs against San Francisco. Goedert will also rarely come off of the field and logged a combined 96% snap% over his previous four games while catching at least three passes for 45 yards on all four of those games. Goedert boasts a 79.7% catch% and is a strong bet command 5-to-8 targets on Sunday.

Hayden Hurst, CIN | DK: $3k, FD: $5.4k | @ KC

Hurst is another player who has been limited in practice this week due to a calf injury but he’s all systems go as of Friday night and will head into the AFC Championship without an injury tag. He came up big against Buffalo last week, catching five of his six targets for 59 yards and a pivotal touchdown that put the Bengals up 14-0 in the first quarter. His largest impact can be felt in the redzone where he has seen five targets over the last three games. The Chiefs surrendered nine TDs to tight ends this season, which tied them for 5th most TE TDs allowed. Hurst sets up as a strong value option, particularly on DraftKings at just $3,000.

The risky, low-owned TE plays are…

George Kittle, SF | DK: $5.2k, FD: $6.8k | @ PHI

The Eagles have only allowed three touchdowns to TEs this season but they’re still allowing decent yardage to the position. Over their last four games, TEs are averaging 65.3 YPG and Philadelphia has given up +38% more FPPG to TEs when playing at home (last nine games). George Kittle has developed a strong rapport with rookie QB Brock Purdy. Since week 15, Kittle has been on the receiving end on seven of Purdy’s 12 passing touchdowns.

Noah Gray, KC | DK; $2.5k, FD: $4.4k | vs. CIN

You’ll notice that Travis Kelce (DK: $7.8k, FD: $8.5k) has not been mentioned in this tight end section. The news was touched on above in the Kadarius Toney spotlight, but Kelce sustained a back injury on one of the final plays of Friday’s practice. Picking up a new injury during the week is never a good sign, particularly when it occurs just two days out from kick-off. Now, there is not much news regarding Kelce’s injury at this point but he now heads into the biggest game of the year with a questionable designation. If he is either limited or unable to suit up entirely, someone like Noah Gray becomes a very, very interesting DFS option. Gray plays quite a bit, to begin with (52% snap% L4Wks) but he is obviously nowhere near the offensive weapon that Kelce is. Still, Gray is someone who often receives a target or two per game and his role could skyrocket pending Kelce’s status. Tight end is also one position that the Bengals' defense has struggled against -- they have allowed 7.0 rec/gm, 85.8 YPG, and the 8th most FPPG to TEs over their last four games.

Defenses to Consider

D/ST is a very volatile “position” and shouldn’t take up too much time in your DFS research. However, here are some D/STs I’m on board with this week.

Safe: Philadelphia Eagles | DK: $2.8k, FD: $4.6k | vs. SF

Pivot: Cincinnati Bengals | DK: $2.3k, FD: $4k | @ KC

Touchdown Call 🏈

Christian McCaffrey, SF | DK: $8k, FD: $9k | @ PHI

Reminder: Follow @LineStarApp on Twitter and retweet the weekly Touchdown Calls tweet! Three retweeters are randomly selected and assigned a player from the TD calls between myself, @FlatTyler83, and @ShannonOnSports. If your player scores a touchdown, you’ll win your choice of cash (via PayPal) or a one-month subscription to LineStar!

PrizePicks NFL Power Play ⚡

This is a three-pick NFL "Power Play" I have over on PrizePicks. Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but these props did stand out so I'll be rolling it out with confidence! If it hits, it will return a 5x payout!

DeVonta Smith MORE than 5.0 Receptions

Noah Gray MORE than 12.5 Receiving Yards

Joe Burrow MORE than 0.5 Pass Yards (Free Square)

Joe Burrow Free Square Note: A maximum of $25 can be placed on the Burrow "free square" promo.

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Once again, if you have any questions DM me on Twitter or hit me up in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck this week!

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