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Divisional Round (Sat-Sun) Slate Rundown 📝

We’re down to just seven games left in this year’s NFL postseason, so don’t take this weekend for granted! The eight teams taking the field in the Divisional Round are only two wins away from a trip to Super Bowl LX, and the margin for error is razor thin. For this newsletter, the focus will be on the full Saturday-through-Sunday four-game slate, which serves as the featured slate on DraftKings and includes the largest prize pools of the weekend. FanDuel, meanwhile, will be splitting its biggest GPPs across the individual Saturday and Sunday two-game slates, but players from both days will be covered here. If you’re playing the Sat–Sun slate, remember to leave your FLEX open for a Sunday player whenever possible to preserve late-swap flexibility. Let’s keep the momentum rolling and look to finish the season strong. Best of luck!

Notable Skill Position Injuries 🚑

Note: Players who have been on the IR for a while will be excluded.

Saturday Games

• Bills: RB Ty Johnson – Questionable, WR Curtis Samuel – Questionable, WR Tyrell Shavers – OUT/IR, WR Joshua Palmer – OUT/IR, WR Gabe Davis – OUT/IR

• Broncos: None

• 49ers: TE George Kittle – OUT/IR, WR Ricky Pearsall – Questionable

• Seahawks: QB Sam Darnold – Questionable (expected to play)

Sunday Games

• Texans: WR Nico Collins – OUT, WR Justin Watson – OUT

• Patriots: WR Mack Hollins – OUT/IR

• Rams: None

• Bears: WR Rome Odunze – Questionable

Divisional Round Matchups w/ Implied Totals & Spreads

Weather Report 🌨️🥶

• BUF @ DEN (SAT 4:30 ET, 45.5 O/U): Winds sit around 10mph with mid-30s temps and no precipitation. No real weather impact to account for here.

• SF @ SEA (SAT 8:00 ET, 45.5 O/U): Upper-40s temperatures, calm winds, and no precipitation. Clean conditions with no weather concerns.

• HOU @ NE (SUN 3:00 ET, 40.5 O/U: Snow looks increasingly likely, with a chance for 1–2 inches falling before and during the game. Temperatures will be cold, but winds remain light, which keeps this from escalating further.

• LAR @ CHI (SUN 6:30 ET, 48.5 O/U): The headline here is extreme cold, with temps in the teens and wind chills dipping into the single digits. Cold alone can subtly suppress scoring, especially at this level. Winds look manageable for now at 10–15mph with gusts up to 20–25mph. A few snow flurries are possible but nothing heavy is expected. Individually, none of these are major issues, but combined they create a modest downgrade to offense and long-range kicking.

Divisional Round Core Plays 🎯

QB Caleb Williams, CHI | DK: $6.1k, FD: $7.8k | vs. LAR

Even with frigid temps, some windy/gusty conditions, and even some possible snow in the forecast here, this game still carries the highest total on the weekend at 48.5 points. The weather often gets overblown for football games as well, and we shouldn’t allow it to shy us away from the top players in this matchup. The Bears head into this one with some momentum following a wild comeback against Green Bay in the Wild Card round. While he wasn’t efficient last week, Caleb Williams was effective enough, completing 24-of-44 passes for 361 yards, two TDs, two INTs, and he tacked on 20 yards rushing. I wouldn’t be shocked if a somewhat similar game script plays out here with the Rams. The Bears are 4.5-point home underdogs, and Williams could very well chuck it 40+ times again. This Rams defense has been a major liability down the stretch and has allowed an average of 30 PPG over their last five. They’ve also given up +36% more FPPG to QBs when playing on the road (L9Games). It might look ugly at times, but Williams should have another strong fantasy performance this Sunday, so he’ll slot in as a core play.

RB Christian McCaffrey, SF | DK: $8.8k, FD: $9.7k | at SEA

It’s a tough matchup against a Seahawks defense that ranks 1st in rush DVOA and has allowed the 3rd-fewest FPPG to RBs this season, but CMC is about as “game script independent” as it gets. No matter the score, he’s going to be on the field getting touches and targets. He finished the regular season as the clear RB1 in FPPG (24.5 PPR FPPG), and the absence of TE George Kittle condenses offensive opportunities even further in this 49ers offense. The Seahawks have had two weeks to prepare for this game, and they’ve held the 49ers to 20 combined points in two meetings in the regular season. But CMC could realistically handle 30+ touches in this game, and that sort of volume cannot be ignored.

WR Puka Nacua, LAR | DK: $9k, FD: $9.8k | at CHI

Even with Davante Adams returning from a three-game injury absence last week, Puka Nacua dominated the targets and airyards. His 18 targets against Carolina equated to a 42.9% Target%, and he commanded 46.6% of the total airyards. Ultimately, he finished with an outstanding 10/111/2 receiving line, which honestly could have been considerably better (remember he dropped a would-be 46-yard TD at the end of the first half). In a potential shootout, Nacua will once again be a top play to target this weekend, and the matchup elevates the appeal even further. Over their last four games, the Bears have allowed 225.0 YPG, 15.5 receptions/gm, and 1.5 TDs/gm to opposing WRs.

WR Khalil Shakir, BUF | DK: $5.1k, FD: $6.5k | at DEN

Speaking of guys who easily stood out as their QB’s go-to target in the Wild Card round, Khalil Shakir set a new single-game career-high in receptions with 12 catches, on 12 targets, against the Jags. That worked out to a 34.3% Target% – the next-closest Bills receivers in Target% were Dalton Kincaid and Brandin Cooks – both had 5 targets, which equated to a 14.3% Target%. The caveat was that, despite the dozen receptions, Shakir only racked up 82 yards (6.8 YPR) and had an aDOT (average depth of target) that was just 1.8 yards past the line of scrimmage. But this Bills team is thin on WRs in general, but especially ones who have significant rapport with QB Josh Allen. Denver’s top-notch secondary is stout on the perimeter but can be exploited out of the slot. They’ve allowed the 8th-most FPPG to slot WRs over their last four games and Shakir has run 68% of his routes out of the slot. He could very well command double-digit targets once again this Saturday and, with that level of volume, it’s only a matter of time before he locates the endzone.

TE Colston Loveland, CHI | DK: $5.5k, FD: $6k | vs. LAR

Loveland seems to be emerging as Caleb Williams’ top receiving weapon so, naturally, he’s going to work out well as a stack piece with our core QB. Over the Bears’ last three games, Loveland has averaged 12.7 Targets/gm, resulting in a 33.3% Target%, 39.1% AirYard%, 8.0 receptions/gm, 110.3 YPG, and he’s found the endzone twice. Seven of his 38 targets in that three-game stretch were also redzone looks and he rarely came off the field, logging snap rates of 82%, 91%, and 81%. The Rams have given up ample production to TEs down the stretch and, thanks to his athletic profile, Loveland has run plenty of routes lined up as a wide receiver as well. You can pretty much guarantee that the Bears’ offensive guru head coach, Ben Johnson, is going to scheme pass plays designed to get the ball into Loveland’s hands.

Saturday - Sunday NFL DFS Cheat Sheet 📝

Alternative Cheat Sheet Direct Image Link

Stacks & Bring Backs 🥞

Below are a few team/game stack ideas to consider for this slate. In some examples, I will include a “bring back” option which will feature a normal "QB + Receiver" stack along with a player from the opposing team in the same game that could also benefit should the primary "QB + Receiver" stack go off.

QB + WR/TE + Opp Receiver (Game Stack)

Josh Allen, Khalil Shakir, Courtland Sutton

QB + Two Pass Catchers (Double Stack)

Matthew Stafford, Puka Nacua, Davante Adams

QB + Two Pass Catchers (Double Stack)

Caleb Williams, DJ Moore, Colston Loveland

Full Team Stack - QB/WR/RB

Sam Darnold, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Zach Charbonnet

Full Team Stack - QB/WR/RB

Matthew Stafford, Puka Nacua, Kyren Williams

Value QB/WR/WR Double Stack

Brock Purdy, Demarcus Robinson, Jake Tonges

Contrarian Game Stack | QB + Low-Owned WR + Low-Owned Opp WR

Drake Maye, Kayshon Boutte, Xavier Hutchinson

Once again, if you have any questions DM me on Twitter/X or hit me up in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck this week!