Eight teams remain alive in the hunt for Super Bowl LVII glory. This weekend will decide who moves on to fight for their respective conference championship next week and who packs up and heads home. Let’s get set for a stellar weekend of NFL action with some top DFS plays and props to consider across this four-game slate!

By: @Ryan_Humphries

Divisional Round NFL PreSnap Podcast 🎙️

Catch Tyler Wiemann and Shannon Sommerville's run down on this weekend's NFL action!

Also, for anyone looking to roll out some NFL props this week, be sure to check out the info and videos at the end of this article featuring usage of LineStar's new Prop Edge+ for NFL tool. This tool can help make prop bettors some extra cash -- especially on sites like PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!

A free two-pick PrizePicks "Power Play" is posted at the end of this article as well!

Divisional Round DFS Main Slate Rundown 📝

It’s time to lock it in for the NFL Divisional Round! This NFL weekend always provides a great deal of excitement and brings four elite match-ups to the table. For the purposes of this newsletter, we’re going to put our focus on the full Saturday to Sunday four-game slate. It happens to be the featured slate (aka it provides the largest DFS contests and prize pools) over on DraftKings; though, FanDuel’s biggest GPPs are still going to reside on the separated Saturday and Sunday two-game slates. Regardless, players competing on both days are going to be discussed throughout this newsletter. Remember to use your FLEX on a Sunday player if you’re playing the Sat-Sun slate just in case some later adjustments need to be made! Let’s get it!

Main slate match-ups with implied point totals and spreads:

Quarterbacks to Consider

The safe QB plays are…

Patrick Mahomes, KC | DK: $8k, FD: $9.2k | vs. JAX

Color zero people shocked by this suggestion. You cannot book a safer ticket at QB than Mahomes this weekend. The Chiefs have had two weeks to rest and game plan and, let’s be honest, the Jags' pass defense isn’t scaring anyone. They ranked 30th in pass DVOA on the season and gave up the 5th most passing yards. Mahomes was able to carve them up in week 10 to the tune of 331 yards through the air with four touchdowns and even tacked on 39 yards rushing on seven attempts. The Chiefs comfortably lead the slate with a 30.3 implied point total and if the Jaguars’ offense can keep this game competitive, Mahomes may mess around and drop another massive fantasy score.

Daniel Jones, NYG | DK: $5.8k, FD: $7.4k | @ PHI

Everyone make way for playoff Danny Dimes. Over his last three starts, Jones is averaging 270.7 passing YPG (70 YPG above his season average) with five passing scores while completing over 70% of his throws. And, more notably, he has rushed for 203 yards (67.7 YPG) and two additional scores in those three games. This has all led to an eye-popping 30.6 FPPG average in that stretch. The Eagles have boasted a stout defense this season, ranking 6th in overall DVOA. However, they were a bit more vulnerable toward the end of the season and allowed 20.8 FPPG to opposing QBs over their last four games. They’ve been particularly susceptible to mobile QBs, and Daniel Jones has certainly qualified as a capable running QB. The Giants carry a slate-low 20.3 implied point total into this divisional round match-up but they are a trendy pick to exceed expectations in this game.

The risky, low-owned QB plays are…

Joe Burrow, CIN | DK: $6.5k, FD: $8k | @ BUF

Burrow lands on a mid-range island on this slate with the vast majority of DFS players looking to roll with one of the top three QB options (Mahomes, Allen, Hurts) or opt to save some salary with Jones or Purdy. Burrow of course carries comparable upside to the pricier QBs but he draws a tough road match-up against Buffalo (5th fewest FPPG allowed to QBs). One constant plus with Burrow is centered around his elite group of pass-catchers that he has at his disposal. All-in-all, there is some merit in rolling Burrow out in GPPs where he’ll likely be one of the bottom three-owned QBs on the slate.

Brock Purdy, SF | DK: $5.4k, FD: $7k | vs. DAL

Purdy already did plenty to impress during his run as the 49ers starter down the regular season stretch. Then the playoffs came around and Purdy put up four total TDs, 332 passing yards, and 37.88 DKFP against Seattle. He has averaged 12.1 yards per completion in his nine games plays, which happens to be the exact same average as Patrick Mahomes and Jalen Hurts. With players like Christian McCaffrey, George Kittle, Deebo Samuel, and Brandon Aiyuk at his disposal, Purdy has a great chance to exceed DFS salary expectations once again, though he is far from the safest investment on this slate. The Cowboys' defense has some players capable of ruining Purdy’s day but, on paper, it’s not a horrible match-up.

Running Backs to Consider

The safe RB plays are…

Christian McCaffrey, SF | DK: $8k, FD: $9.2k | vs. DAL

CMC has gelled in Kyle Shanahan’s system perfectly and brings a high fantasy floor and exceptional touchdown equity each week, regardless of match-up. The Cowboys will not be pushovers -- they’ve given up the 2nd fewest FPPG and 4th fewest receptions per game to RBs this season. However, this game features the closest spread of the week (SF -4) and, in a tightly contested match-up, the game script could feasibly unlock 25+ touches for CMC.

Jerick McKinnon, KC | DK: $6k, FD: $7k | vs. JAX

McKinnon made his case as one of the late-season fantasy football MVPs in season-long leagues but he has of course been a strong play in DFS as well. He’s been an absolute menace in the redzone and closed out the regular season with a touchdown in six consecutive games, nine TDs in total. His biggest impact is felt as a pass catcher out of the backfield, which sets up perfectly against a Jags defense that has allowed the 2nd most receptions to RBs per game.

The risky, low-owned RBs are…

Tony Pollard, DAL | DK: $6.1k, FD: $7.1k | @ SF

The 49ers are about the last team I’d want to attack with an opposing running back. But, from a leverage standpoint, that’s exactly what makes Tony Pollard a premium contrarian pick on a small slate. The 49ers have allowed the fewest rushing yards and FPPG to RBs this season. However, Pollard is one of the best backs in the NFL when it comes to fighting for extra yardage and creating explosive plays. He led the NFL this season with 2.6 yards after contact per attempt and checked in at 6th with 503 total yards after contact. If Ezekiel Elliott struggles to get anything going between the tackles, the Cowboys may opt to hand over a heavier workload to Pollard which would unlock his exceptional fantasy ceiling.

Miles Sanders, PHI | DK: $5.7k, FD: $7.2k | vs. NYG

Sanders averaged a paltry 4.9 FPPG over his last four games of the season but his last ceiling game came against this same Giants team in week 14 where he rumbled for 144 yards and two touchdowns on 17 carries. Between Jalen Hurts’ rushing ability and backup RBs like Boston Scott and Kenneth Gainwell eating up a fair amount of running back touches, the floor remains extremely low for Sanders. However, Sanders will still receive around 50% of the snaps out of the backfield with an outside shot at 20+ carries, depending on game flow. If Sanders can find the endzone and rip off a couple of big runs, he could very well land in the optimal lineup at low ownership.

Wide Receivers to Consider

The safe WR plays are…

Ja’Marr Chase, CIN | DK: $7.8k, FD: $8.5k | @ BUF

As usual, the wide receiver position is going to provide us with the most options and flexibility this week. Ja’Marr Chase steps in as the priciest option on the board but his target volume and big play ability cannot be understated. Chase closed out the year with at least 11 targets over his final five games with touchdown receptions in four of them. In a game that could easily turn into a shootout, Chase is nearly a lock for double-digit targets on Sunday and will go up against a Bills secondary that allowed the 8th most FPPG to WRs over the final half of the season.

AJ Brown, PHI | DK: $7.6k, FD: $8.3k | vs. NYG

We can feel safe about AJ Brown’s DFS floor as well as his touchdown upside. He has averaged 10.8 TGT/Gm and 119.0 YPG over the last four games and owns a monster 34.0% redzone TGT%. The Giants are also most vulnerable against left perimeter WRs (6th most FPPG) which is where Brown runs the majority of his routes.

Richie James Jr., NYG | DK: $3.9k, FD: $5.9k | @ PHI

The Eagles are brutally tough against outside WRs but they can be beaten out of the slot (4th most FPPG to slot WRs). That works out well for Richie James Jr. who handles slot duties on nearly 90% of his routes. James took advantage of the match-up with Eagles slot corner Avonte Maddox back in week 14 when he put up a 9-7-61-1 target/receiving line.

The risky, low-owned WR plays are…

CeeDee Lamb, DAL | DK: $7.3k, FD: $7.8k | @ SF

Lamb may go overlooked this weekend solely based on the reputation of the stout 49ers defense. However, from a fantasy perspective, their effectiveness against WRs is far from superior. In fact, they surrendered THE most FPPG to WRs over their last four games and 5th most on the season as a whole. In the recent four-game stretch, WRs are racking up 195.5 YPG, 14.8 receptions/gm, and 2.0 TDs/Gm. CeeDee Lamb has a firm grasp on the top receiving role in the Cowboys’ passing attack and led the team with a 29.3% TGT%.

Zay Jones, JAX | DK: $4.7k, FD: $6.5k | @ KC

Perhaps Zay Jones ends up carrying higher-than-expected ownership this weekend but the hope here is that folks will be scared off of him due to inconsistent production. There is no doubt that Zay Jones has ample upside. He has scored between 21.4 DKFP and 37.9 DKFP in five games this season and commanded 13 targets in last week’s major wild-card comeback against the Chargers. There is also no doubt that the Jaguars will have to pass the ball a ton to keep pace with the Chiefs’ offense. Jones was targeted 10 times against the Chiefs back in week 10 and has averaged 20.72 FPPG in high-scoring games, as this one is expected to be with a total of 52.5.

Kadarius Toney, KC | DK: $4.1k, FD: $5.8k | vs. JAX

Toney has missed plenty of time due to injury this season but he’s been healthy for the Chiefs’ last four games, in which he has received six redzone opportunities (four targets, two rushes). He’s taken on a “gadget guy” role, similar to how the 49ers utilize Deebo Samuel’s skillset. Any significant piece of this Chiefs’ offense is worth taking a shot on in this game and Toney won’t break the bank at his current DFS salaries.

Tight Ends to Consider

The safe TE plays are…

Travis Kelce, KC | DK: $7.7k, FD: $8k | vs. JAX

Kelce has gone six consecutive games without a touchdown which is very unfamiliar territory for the future Hall of Fame tight end. He’ll have a great chance to end that scoreless streak on Saturday afternoon when he faces a Jaguars defense that has struggled to defend tight ends all season. Jacksonville has surrendered the 4th most FPPG to TEs on the season. They have been beaten by them even more in the last four games with TEs averaging 7.3 receptions/gm, 95.3 YPG, and 0.5 TD/Gm. Kelce put up a very Kelce-like 7-6-81-1 target/receiving line against Jacksonville earlier this season and he tends to turn it on in the postseason.

Dawson Knox, BUF | DK: $3.8k, FD: $5.8k | vs. CIN

Unlike Kelce and his touchdown drought, Knox continued to extend his touchdown streak to five consecutive games against Miami in the wild-card round. No one can be locked into a touchdown every week but Knox is a clear favorite for Josh Allen in the redzone and he has either scored a touchdown or has at least 57 receiving yards in his last seven home games. The Bengals are also allowing 68.1 YPG to TEs over their last nine games.

The risky, low-owned TE plays are…

Hayden Hurst, CIN | DK: $3.2k, FD: $5k | @ BUF

Despite the small slate, there is a high concentration of quality tight ends to choose from so folks will gravitate in the direction of Kelce, Kittle, Goedert, Engram, Schultz, or Knox. Spending down on a guy like Hayden Hurst is one way to go against the grain. He’s a reliable 5-7 target per game player and he was about a half-yard short of scoring a touchdown in last week’s playoff game against the Ravens.

Daniel Bellinger, NYG | DK: $3k, FD: $4.9k | @ PHI

If you’re aiming to punt at the tight end position, Bellinger is essentially the cheapest guy you can safely target, otherwise you’re just blindly throwing darts at the board. Bellinger is not a safe option, but he is likely to see a few targets while playing around 80-90% of snaps. He came up with a big 3rd quarter touchdown last week to push the Giants to a 24-14 lead over the Vikings so the trust should be there from QB Daniel Jones. The Eagles have been a middling defense when it comes to defending opposing TEs as well.

Defenses to Consider

D/ST is a very volatile “position” and shouldn’t take up too much time in your DFS research. However, here are some D/STs I’m on board with this week.

Safe: Buffalo Bills | DK: $2.9k, FD: $4.1k | vs. CIN

Somewhat Safe: Philadelphia Eagles | DK: $3.2k, FD: $4.8k | vs. NYG

Pivot: Dallas Cowboys | DK: $3k, FD: $3.9k | @ SF

Touchdown Call 🏈

Travis Kelce, KC | DK: $7.7k, FD: $8k | vs. JAX

Reminder: Follow @LineStarApp on Twitter and retweet the weekly Touchdown Calls tweet! Three retweeters are randomly selected and assigned a player from the TD calls between myself, @FlatTyler83, and @ShannonOnSports. If your player scores a touchdown, you’ll win your choice of cash (via PayPal) or a one-month subscription to LineStar!

PrizePicks NFL Power Play ⚡

This is a two-pick NFL "Power Play" I have over on PrizePicks. Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but these props did stand out so I'll be rolling it out with confidence! If it hits, it will return a 3x payout!

Daniel Jones MORE than 45.5 Rush Yards

Jerick McKinnon + Patrick Mahomes MORE than 0.5 RUSH + REC TDs

INSIDER INJURY KNOWLEDGE FROM PRO SPORTS TEAM DOCTORS TO GIVE YOU A WINNING EDGE!

Special Limited Time Offer to Linestar Customers

For one free week of access to SIC Picks valued at $49.99*, go to sicscore.com/upgrade and follow the prompts to for a Weekly Pass. Be sure to apply the coupon code: LINESTAR for the discount. Offer ends 12/31/2022. Find out more on SIC Picks here!

*Note: After 7 days a weekly SIC Picks subscription will continue at $49.99 unless you cancel. You will be notified via email 24-48 hours prior to the renewal with the option to cancel at any time by logging into your account and clicking Cancel Subscription in the Subscription Settings area of the account page or emailing [email protected].

🆕 Props Edge+ 🆕

In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props Edge+ for NFL – available for LineStar Premium users! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!

Speaking of props, put the Props Edge+ tool to use by signing up for PrizePicks (Promo code: BETFULLY) or Underdog (Promo code: LINESTAR). 100% match on deposits up to $100 PLUS a free two-month subscription to LineStar Premium. Many people may not realize that you can legally place prop bets in most states using UnderDog (or PrizePicks) – it’s called Pick'Em, and it’s incredibly easy.

Once again, if you have any questions DM me on Twitter or hit me up in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck this week!

Let us know if you enjoyed the issue with a Yes or No below!