Penned By: @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter and LineStar Chat.

• Rate LineStarApp on the App store and get a shoutout on Twitter from @LineStarApp official account!

• Have questions? Check out the LineStar Tutorial Wiki.

Top DFS Offers 1 / 20 / 24 💸

Our editors found the top deals in sports-books so you don’t have to! Tapping below links will help support LineStar through an affiliate referral.

• Sleeper DFS - Deposit Match up to $100 ⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️

• Underdog DFS - Deposit Match up to $500 🔥

• Thrive DFS - Deposit Match up to $100 ⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️

• Chalkboard DFS - Deposit Match up to $100 ⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️

• Parlay Play - Free $5 Entry no Deposit Required 🆕

^{Must be 18+ (some states may require 21+) and be present in an eligible state; if you or someone you know has a gambling problem, crisis counseling, and referral services can be accessed by calling 1-800-GAMBLER.}

LineStar DFS Picks & Prop Shows

w/ Tyler Wiemann & Shannon Sommerville.

Stay up-to-date with all of the latest DFS and prop betting content by subscribing to the LineStar YouTube channel!

Main Slate Rundown 📝

Seven games remain in this wild and exhilarating NFL postseason! The eight teams competing in this weekend’s Divisional Round are just two wins away from punching their ticket to Super Bowl LVIII! For the purposes of this newsletter, we’re going to put our focus on the full Saturday through Sunday four-game slate. It happens to be the featured slate (aka it provides the largest DFS contests and prize pools) over on DraftKings; though, FanDuel’s biggest GPPs are going to reside on the separated Saturday and Sunday two-game slates. Regardless, players competing on both days are going to be discussed throughout this newsletter. If applicable, remember to use your FLEX on a Sunday player if you’re playing the Sat-Sun slate just in case some later adjustments need to be made. Let’s continue to close the book on this season with a bang! Best of luck!

Main slate match-ups with implied point totals and spreads:

Weather Report

As a reminder, weather plays less of a factor in football than it does in other sports but it is still worth making note of any games that could experience wet conditions, high winds, and/or frigid, snowy conditions.

• HOU @ BAL (43.5 O/U): Temps in the low 20s and it will feel more like 10 degrees due to the 15 mph sustained winds and near 30 mph gusts. There is some snow in the forecast as well but that should be gone by kickoff so no concern there.

• GB @ SF (50.5 O/U): Light to moderate rain is expected at times throughout this game. 10-15 mph winds with 20 mph gusts. Not great, not terrible.

• TB @ DET (49.5 O/U): Indoor game.

• KC @ BUF (45.5 O/U): Temps around 20 degrees, it will feel close to zero degrees, 10-15 mph winds, and 20 mph gusts. Similar conditions to last week’s Wild Card game in Buffalo.

Quarterbacks to Consider

The safe QB plays are…

Josh Allen, BUF | DK: $8k, FD: $9.4k | vs. KC

All eight of the QBs that have made it to this Divisional Round finished the season ranking inside the top 11 in QB fantasy scoring, so a strong case can be made for essentially every QB on this slate. In the end, it’s going to be interesting to see how QB ownership shakes out but, for now, we know what we’re getting out of Josh Allen. Allen, the number one QB in fantasy this season, has averaged 25.3 FPPG and he’s coming off of a four-touchdown performance (3 passing, 1 rushing) in the Wild Card round where he tacked on 74 rushing yards. Offensive fireworks tend to fly when these two teams meet and the Chiefs have allowed +42% more FPPG to QBs when playing on the road.

Brock Purdy, SF | DK: $6.5k, FD: $7.8k | vs. GB

As he has proven week in and week out, no other QB in the NFL has a better supporting cast of playmakers around him than Brock Purdy. This isn’t meant to take away from the exceptional season that Purdy has put together -- he led the NFL in yards per completion, QB Rating, and total QBR. But it is impossible for a defense to hyper-focus on any single star 49ers playmaker. Containing Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, and George Kittle all at once for four quarters consistently just isn’t feasible. The Packers are coming off of a stunning blowout victory over the Cowboys last week but there is nothing remarkable about this Green Bay defense that ranks 27th in total DVOA. After sitting most key starters in week eight, ahead of their first-round bye, the 49ers have had multiple weeks to rest up and prepare for this game and they head in with a hefty 30.0 implied team total. Also, outside of a week 16 dud against Baltimore’s top-rated defense, Brock Purdy has scored no fewer than 21.32 FP in any other home game this season, so we should feel great about his floor on Saturday night.

The risky, lower-owned QBs are…

Patrick Mahomes, KC | DK: $6.8k, FD: $7.7k | @ BUF

As wild as it is to say, I fully expect Mahomes to be the lowest, or at best, the second-lowest owned QB on this four-game slate. In his defense, he’s not getting much help from his receivers, but this has been quite easily his worst season from a statistical standpoint since he took over the full-time starting job in 2018. He’s averaging career lows in yards per completion, yards per game, and QB rating, and has tied a single-season high in sack% while setting a single-season high in INT%. To make things even dicier, this week will also be Mahomes’ first true road playoff game. Buffalo has ranked 9th in pass DVOA and they allow -47% fewer FPPG to QBs when they (Buffalo) are favored. But, as lazy and cliche as it is to say, “it’s still Patrick Mahomes” and he could pull off some patented Mahomes magic at any time. We don’t often get a guy of Mahomes’ caliber who represents one of the biggest leverage plays on the slate.

CJ Stroud, HOU | DK: $6.7k, FD: $7.2k | @ BAL

The only other QB I could envision going lower-owned on this four-game slate than the aforementioned Mahomes would be rookie sensation CJ Stroud. He absolutely torched a Browns defense last week that ranked 2nd in total DVOA on the season and now he’ll match up with the NFL’s top-rated defense on the road. He’s certainly setting the bar high to begin his NFL career and this is a brutally tough spot for a rookie QB in the playoffs. Stroud is also averaging -41.4% fewer FPPG in outdoor environments. But this section is all about leverage and Stroud will be at the bottom of the list of QBs people will be willing to roster this weekend.

Running Backs to Consider

The safe RB plays are…

Christian McCaffrey, SF | DK: $8.6k, FD: $10.8k | vs. GB

CMC needs no introduction but we’ll speak on him for a bit nonetheless. In regular season PPR scoring, the difference between RB1 Christian McCaffrey (391.3 FPTS) and RB2 Breece Hall (290.5 FPTS) is essentially the same difference as RB2 Breece Hall and RB25 Gus Edwards (187.0 FPTS). CMC is well-rested and should have no issues racking up the yardage and at least one touchdown against the Packers’ 26th-ranked rush DVOA defense. The only event in which CMC busts this week, aside from injury, would be if the 49ers limit his touches in a potential early blowout win script.

James Cook, BUF | DK: $6.3k, FD: $6.8k | vs. KC

The waters get murkier at the RB position once we get past CMC, who resides in his own elite tier, as he has all season. There are still plenty of talented RBs to choose from, but none that necessarily stand out in a big way. However, James Cook will make sense this week as he goes up against a run-funnel Chiefs defense. Kansas City has ranked 5th in pass DVOA but 27th in rush DVOA. Cook has not found the endzone in any of his previous four games, and QB Josh Allen does eat into his touchdown equity near the goal line. But Cook has still averaged 18.8 touches/gm L4Games and we saw the sort of ceiling he can provide with interim Bills’ OC Joe Brady calling the shots when he racked up 39.1 DKFP/35.1 FDFP back in week 15 against the Cowboys.

Devin Singletary, HOU | DK: $5.7k, FD: $6.4k | @ BAL

Singletary took the reigns as the Texans’ RB1 midseason and never looked back. Since week nine, he has played at least 72% of the snaps in seven of 11 games and his volume is about as safe as any other RB on this slate. Baltimore offers a tough challenge but it is easier to run on them than pass (BAL: 1st in pass DVOA, 7th in rush DVOA). The Ravens have also allowed some big games to RBs in recent games, including 27.3 DKFP to Najee Harris (Wk18), 26.7 DKFP to De’Von Achane (Wk17), and 28.1 DKFP to Christian McCaffrey (Wk16). The Ravens also allow +55% more FPPG to RBs at home so there are plenty of positive indicators for Singletary this Saturday.

The risky, lower-owned RBs are…

Jahmyr Gibbs, DET | DK: $6.6k, FD: $7.3k | vs. TB

Gibbs is a massive talent and finished as the RB10 in fantasy this season but he’s also a rookie who has to share the backfield with veteran RB David Montgomery. Gibbs was out-snapped by Montgomery 30 (54% snap%) to 19 (34% snap%) in last week’s Wild Card game against the Rams. Gibbs still managed 68 total yards and a TD on 12 touches, but it does appear as if HC Dan Campbell and the Lions trust Monty more in a high-stakes playoff atmosphere. Of course, the script could flip and Gibbs could lead the Lions’ backfield in snaps/touches this week. Either way, it won’t be an easy match-up against a Bucs defensive front that ranks 8th in rush DVOA and allowed the 3rd fewest FPPG to RBs this season.

Gus Edwards, BAL | DK: $5.9k, FD: $6.9k | vs. HOU

The Ravens bolstered their injured RB room by signing Dalvin Cook to their 53-man roster on Thursday, but Cook has looked completely washed this year so Gus Edwards will remain the odds-on favorite to lead the Baltimore backfield in snaps and touches. However, the caveat on Edwards is that he offers nearly zero receiving upside and will be very touchdown-dependent to “get there” as an optimal play. But, hey, we’ve seen multiple games out of Edwards this season where he handles 15-20 carries, racks up 50-70 yards, and scores multiple touchdowns. It’s doable considering the Ravens are hefty nine-point home favorites and Edwards will be running against a middling Texans run defense. Justice Hill (DK: $4.8k, FD: $5.3k) should also see a fair amount of touches and will operate as the preferred receiving RB.

Wide Receivers to Consider

The safe WR plays are…

Amon-Ra St. Brown, DET | DK: $8.2k, FD: $9.2k | vs. TB

The Sun God has been a man on a mission this season and only CeeDee Lamb and Tyreek Hill outscored him in PPR fantasy points [at the WR position]. He has seen 10.3 targets/gm, has caught 72.6% of his targets, and has commanded an elite 35.4% redzone target%. The list of juicy stats could go on and on but, much like Christian McCaffrey, Amon-Ra St. Brown is just one of the “no-brainer” plays on this slate. One thing I do want to point out is the fact that St. Brown runs 56% of his routes out of the slot and the Bucs have surrendered the 2nd most FPPG to slot WRs this season. He’ll likely be the highest-owned receiver on this slate but you won’t catch me fading Amon-Ra in this spot.

Rashee Rice, KC | DK: $6.8k, FD: $7.8k | @ BUF

It pays to be Patrick Mahomes’ WR1 and it’s far from a stretch to say that Rashee Rice has moved ahead of Travis Kelce as the top overall receiving weapon in the Chiefs’ offense. Rice has commanded at least nine targets in six of his last seven games -- the one game he didn’t hit that nine-target threshold, he caught 5-of-6 targets for 127 yards. Excluding the week 18 game where the Chiefs rested most of their starters, Rice has played at least 75% of the snaps L5Games. In a season where drops have plagued the Chiefs receiving room, Rice has been a sure-handed pass catcher and has hauled in 77.5% of his targets. It may not be an ideal match-up but Rice does run roughly half of his routes out of the slot and the Bills allowed the 10th most FPPG to slot WRs over the last four weeks of the regular season.

Zay Flowers, BAL | DK: $6k, FD: $7k | vs. HOU

One of the bigger injury notes this weekend centers around the Ravens choosing not to activate TE Mark Andrews off of the IR. Andrews has been out since cracking his left fibula and suffering ligament damage in week 11, but he was able to log a pair of full practices this week. However, the Ravens ultimately decided to exercise caution with their star tight end and they clearly feel confident in their ability to win this week without him. All of this to say, Zay Flowers should operate as the consensus number-one receiving weapon for the Ravens on Saturday. Like some other teams who were locked into their playoff seed, the Ravens sat most key starters, including Flowers, in week 18. But in the five games between weeks 12 and 17, Flowers scored at least 20.0 DKFP/17.0 FDFP in four of them and totaled five touchdowns (four receiving, one rushing). This will be a week one rematch where Flowers made an impressive rookie debut, catching 9-of-10 targets for 78 yards and he also mixed in a couple of carries out of the backfield. With a full season of experience now under his belt, Flowers should be ready to impress once more in his NFL postseason debut.

The risky, lower-owned WRs are…

Deebo Samuel, SF | DK: $7.7k, FD: $8.3k | vs. GB

I don’t imagine Deebo will be extremely low-owned, but he could check in at under 20% ownership which, by four-game slate standards, qualifies him for this section, in my book. If we exclude week 18, Samuel has averaged 94.5 scrimmage yards per game and 1.5 TDs/gm going back to week 12. In an offense full of superstars, he’s the true x-factor that opposing defenses have the most difficulty scheming against. Deebo is a YAC machine (8.8 YAC this season) and the Packers allow +26% more FPPG to shorter WRs.

Stefon Diggs, BUF | DK: $7k, FD: $7.5k | vs. KC

I have no in-depth analysis to delve into here but Diggs is going to go extremely low-owned since he’s still fairly expensive and there are many other more trustworthy WRs to roll with out of this price range. Diggs’ fantasy results took a steep nosedive over the second half of the season but, more often than not, the targets have still been there and he heads into this game with seven receptions in back-to-back games. Diggs at < 10% ownership on a four-game slate is enticing from a GPP perspective. But, if you’re playing less than a handful of lineups, I’d likely look elsewhere.

Chris Godwin, TB | DK: $6.3k, FD: $6.9k | @ DET

The big games have been few and far between for Godwin this season but if the Bucs hope to continue their unlikely playoff run, they’re probably going to have to get it done through the air. The Lions boast the NFL’s top-ranked run defense (1st in rush DVOA, fewest FPPG allowed to RBs) but they’re certainly beatable through the air. Detroit has given up the 3rd most FPPG to WRs this season, and THE most FPPG to WRs L4Games. Godwin found the endzone in last week’s beatdown of the Eagles and he averaged 9.2 targets/gm over the final five weeks of the regular season. Godwin has run 80% of his routes either out of the slot (38%) or right perimeter (42%). That bodes well against this Lions' secondary that allowed the most FPPG to slot WRs and 5th most FPPG to RWRs over the second half of the regular season.

Jayden Reed, GB | DK: $5.2k, FD: $6.6k | @ SF

Getting this Packers' passing game right could be a major key to unlocking GPP-winning potential on this slate. I’m not expecting a massive day where multiple Packers’ receivers crack the optimal lineup, but Green Bay will likely be forced into a pass-heavy script early on and one of these receivers could emerge with a big game. Reed posted a goose egg last week after failing to catch any of his three targets. However, he wasn’t fully healthy entering the week and largely seemed to serve as a decoy. And, given the lopsided game script, the Packers never had to force the issue with the passing game either. Reed enters this week without an injury designation. He ended the regular season on a tear, scoring at least 15.0 DKFP in seven of his final eight games and I wouldn’t be surprised if folks look to chase the big Romeo Doubs Wild Card game, if they choose to target this Packers receiving corps. On paper, Reed does draw the most favorable WR/CB match-up (among GB WRs) against Deommodore Lenoir so, all-in-all, he’ll be my preferred Packers WR on this slate.

Tight Ends to Consider

The safe TE plays are…

George Kittle, SF | DK: $5.2k, FD: $6.4k | vs. GB

Kittle owns some stark home/road splits this season, averaging 19.2 DKFP/15.7 FDFP at home, but 8.6 DKFP/7.1 FDFP away. Getting exposure to this potent 49ers offense is an obvious move this weekend and it doesn’t hurt that the Packers rank 26th in TE DVOA and allowed the 2nd most FPPG to the position L4Games.

Isaiah Likely, BAL | DK: $4.7k, FD: $5.5k | vs. HOU

By all means, there are plenty of great tight end options to choose from this weekend. With Mark Andrews staying on the shelf, Isaiah Likely will get at least one more game where he is the Ravens’ featured TE1. His snap percentages beginning in week 11 have been 74%, 73%, 79%, 74%, 74%, 63%, and 33% (meaningless week 18 game -- Likely still caught a TD). So he’s out there for three-fourths of offensive plays and he has caught 75% of his targets this season, including an impressive 85.7% redzone catch%. We’ll like the match-up for Likely against a Texans defense that has surrendered the 4th most FPPG to TEs this season.

The risky, lower-owned TEs are…

Travis Kelce, KC | DK: $6k, FD: $7.1k | @ BUF

It feels strange to place Kelce in this section but does anyone feel comfortable slotting him into lineups this week when he’s the most expensive TE on the slate? Kelce has not scored a touchdown since week 11 and he hasn’t surpassed the 20 FP threshold since week seven. Nonetheless, he still commanded double-digit targets in last week’s Wild Card game and Patrick Mahomes is going to feed him targets in a win-or-go-home game. Tight ends have scored just three TDs against the Bills this season but they’re a middling 14th in TE DVOA and Kelce has some strong history against Buffalo in his career. But Kelce is most intriguing because he could be 10-15% owned.

Dalton Kincaid, BUF | DK: $4.8k, FD: $6.2k | vs. KC

We’ll go to Kelce’s counterpart as our other low-owned TE target and spotlight rookie Dalton Kincaid. Kincaid had a stretch of breakout games while fellow TE Dawson Knox was on the IR, and then he hit a bit of a lull, before bouncing back and either scoring a touchdown or securing 80+ receiving yards over the last three games. The Chiefs are 10th in TE DVOA but the Bills line Kincaid out wide in some formations and he could see some deeper shots with downfield receiving threat WR Gabe Davis out for another week.

Defenses to Consider

D/ST is a very volatile “position” and shouldn’t take up too much time in your DFS research. However, here are some D/STs I’m on board with this week.

Pay-Up D/ST: Baltimore Ravens | DK: $3.5k, FD: $4.3k | vs. HOU

Value D/ST: Buffalo Bills | DK: $2.8k, FD: $4k | vs. KC

Contrarian D/ST: Tampa Bay Buccaneers | DK: $2.5k, FD: $3.5k | @ DET

Stacks & Bring Backs 🥞

Below are a few team/game stack ideas to consider for this slate. In some examples, I will include a “bring back” option which will feature a normal "QB + Receiver" stack along with a player from the opposing team in the same game that could also benefit should the primary "QB + Receiver" stack go off.

QB + WR/TE + Opp Receiver (Game Stack)

Lamar Jackson, Zay Flowers, Nico Collins

QB + WR/TE + Opp Running Back (Game Stack)

Baker Mayfield, Chris Godwin, Jahmyr Gibbs

QB + Two Pass Catchers (Double Stack)

Jared Goff, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Sam LaPorta (Questionable)

Contrarian QB + Two Pass Catchers (Double Stack)

Patrick Mahomes, Rashee Rice, Travis Kelce

RB + Team D/ST Correlation Stack

Gus Edwards + Ravens D/ST

Full Team Stack - QB/WR/RB

Brock Purdy, Deebo Samuel, Christian McCaffrey

“Ugly Duckling Game Stack” | QB + WR + Opp Receiver

CJ Stroud, Dalton Schultz, Isaiah Likely

Touchdown Call 🏈

Deebo Samuel, SF | DK: $7.7k, FD: $8.3k | vs. GB

PrizePicks Sunday NFL Power Play ⚡

This is a two-pick NFL "Power Play" I have over on PrizePicks. Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but these props did stand out so I'll be rolling it out with confidence! If it hits, it will return a 3x payout!

Amon-Ra St. Brown MORE than 93.5 Receiving Yards

James Cook MORE than 14.5 Rush Attempts

🔥 Props AI 🔥

In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props AI for NFL – available for LineStar Premium users! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!

Speaking of props, put the Props Edge+ tool to use by signing up for PrizePicks (Promo code: BETFULLY) or Underdog (Promo code: LINESTAR). 100% match on deposits up to $100 PLUS a free two-month subscription to LineStar Premium. Many people may not realize that you can legally place prop bets in most states using UnderDog (or PrizePicks) – it’s called Pick'Em, and it’s incredibly easy.

Once again, if you have any questions DM me on Twitter or hit me up in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck this week!