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It’s time, baby! For the first time in 207 days, toe meets leather in meaningful NFL action tonight, with the Dallas Cowboys traveling to meet the Philadelphia Eagles in a heated NFC East divisional showdown! Here’s to another exciting and profitable NFL season!

Single Game NFL DFS Introduction

I’m sure many of those reading this are well-versed on the ins and outs of the single-game NFL DFS format, so feel free to skip past this whole segment. For those who may be unfamiliar, here is a brief rundown of how things will work on DraftKings and FanDuel.

In the DraftKings single-game “Showdown Captain Mode” format, your “captain” selection will represent your most important player in any given lineup. This is because your chosen captain player will score 1.5x the normal amount of fantasy points. However, the trade-off is that their salary is also increased by a multiple of 1.5x. Your remaining five “FLEX” plays will have no salary or score multipliers.

In past seasons, the FanDuel single-game DFS format had its “MVP” (equivalent to “captain” on DraftKings) score 1.5x their normal amount of fantasy points; however, there was no 1.5x salary multiplier to go along with that fantasy score boost. They also only had four FLEX roster slots previously. This season, FanDuel’s single-game format will follow the exact same format as DraftKings, which is an excellent adjustment, if you ask me. MVPs will cost 1.5x their base salary, and an additional FLEX roster slot was added, bringing it up from four to five FLEX roster slots, just like DraftKings.

That also means that these “Primetime Preview” newsletters will apply to both DraftKings and FanDuel since both sites are on the same page, format-wise. The only differences will be salary discrepancies between players, as DraftKings has a $50,000 salary cap and FanDuel’s remains at $60,000.

Many believe that to win an NFL showdown GPP, you simply have to luck your way onto the podium. That simply isn’t accurate. Sure, to win any sort of GPP in DFS, regardless of sport or slate format, you need a bit of good fortune. But research and sharp game theory can truly make all the difference.

So, what are some strategies and determining factors that should affect your approach to NFL single-game lineup construction?

Single Game Showdown Tips & Strategy

1a) Choosing the Right Captain/MVP

This one is quite obvious, but it is the most important aspect of single-game lineup construction. The 1.5x multiplier applied to the captain/MVP roster spot is extremely crucial in any single-game contest, but especially in GPPs. Based on historical data from past DraftKings showdowns, about two-thirds of the time, a wide receiver or running back ends up being the optimal captain/MVP play. Quarterbacks are oftentimes the highest-owned captain/MVP selections in actual contests, but end up being the optimal play in that valuable 1.5x slot around 20% of the time. However, QBs who add value with their rushing ability (e.g., Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen) are more viable as captain/MVP selections over QBs who are prototypical pocket passers. Behind WRs, RBs, and QBs, in terms of the most common optimal captain/MVP selections, are tight ends, defenses, and (on very rare occasions) kickers – in that order.

Also, more often than not, you need the highest-scoring player from the game in your captain/MVP slot in order to win big, and not the best overall value, like many may assume. Exceptions can always be made, but this is generally how things shake out on these single-game slates.

1b) Stacking Your Captain/MVP Selection Appropriately

This goes hand-in-hand with who you choose to roll with at captain/MVP. If you have a WR at captain/MVP, you almost always want to pair that player with their quarterback as one of your flex plays. If you’re choosing to roll with a QB at captain/MVP, you are generally predicting that more than one of his receivers is going to have a highly productive day, yet no single receiver will be outscoring the QB in fantasy points. With that in mind, with a QB at captain/MVP, it is most logical to stack two or even three of his pass catchers. Running backs often have a positive correlation with their team’s defense (likely having a lead and controlling the clock on the ground on offense = well-rested, better-performing defense), so you could choose to take that route. Although that does not correlate as drastically as QBs + receivers. RBs who are capable receivers see their fair share of targets and are “stackable” with their QB as well.

2) Predicting Game Flow

Some of the best showdown DFS players excel in predicting game flow when constructing their lineups. It may sound somewhat corny, but you need to make your lineup(s) “tell a story.” If you’re rostering one team’s bellcow RB, and if you believe that his team is going to be leading and attempting to control the clock by feeding him all game, then run it back with the opposing team’s passing game, which may be forced into playing a pass-happy “catch-up mode” type of offense. If you’re predicting a sort of 16-10 type of low-scoring affair, consider rostering one or both defenses (one perhaps even in your captain/MVP slot) and maybe a kicker or two while trying to find the skill position players who score the game’s one or two touchdowns.

If you believe one team, whether they’re the favorite or the underdog, has a chance to completely blow out the other, then consider constructing a 5-1 “smash” lineup build – meaning, roster five players on the dominating team and one player on the other team that could still manage to have a decent fantasy day. Most GPP-winning lineups will have either a 4-2 construction (four players on the winning team, two on the losing team) or a 3-3 construction (three players from both teams – when a game stays fairly close and is usually won by one or two scores).

3) Ownership Leverage

With a limited player pool to choose from, it can be very difficult to find those one or two low-owned guys who explode in a game and put your lineup over the top. But on any given single-game NFL slate, you know who the chalky plays will almost always be: QBs, WR1s/WR2s, RB1s, and occasionally a TE if there is a premier guy at the position available like Brock Bowers or Trey McBride. To find lower-owned players who have a chance to put up a ceiling performance, think outside the box. Perhaps you come across a player whose snap counts have been rising in recent weeks, a receiver who may not be seeing a ton of target volume but is seeing deep shots down the field (high aDOT receivers), or somebody else who is further down the depth chart but can still play a key offensive role, especially if an injury occurs.

Also, in any GPP approach, you want to try to be overweight or underweight on players compared to the field. For example, if you’re rolling out 20 lineups and you believe a player is going to be around 50% owned, then determine whether or not you’re going to go above the field by rostering him in, for instance, 16 lineups (80% exposure) or bet against him by simply putting him in five lineups (25% exposure) or fading him entirely. If your player exposure is even to the field, you limit the potential upside and leverage within your lineups.

4) Leaving Some Salary on the Table

It’s very common for top prizes in showdown GPPs to be split among many different contestants. Sometimes it is just unavoidable if the optimal lineup ends up being a commonly duplicated entry. But one of the better ways to ensure you have a unique lineup is to simply not force yourself into spending 98-100% of your salary. Leaving $1,000 to $5,000 (or more in some circumstances, especially in a potential low-scoring game) on the table may not feel like a comfortable thing to do, yet it is often the optimal route to take. A good way to sort of back-test this is to go to LineStar’s “Perfect Lineups” page and check out optimal lineups from previous NFL showdown slates.

Now, with those single-game showdown tips and strategies covered, let’s get a look ahead at Thursday’s Eagles vs. Cowboys match-up!

Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles (-8.5) | 47.5 O/U

DAL: 19.5 Implied Points | PHI: 28.0 Implied Points

Notable DFS-Relevant Injuries: None

Score Prediction: Cowboys - 23, Eagles - 31

Showdown Roster Construction (in order of preference): 4-2 Eagles, 3-3 Balanced, 4-2 Cowboys, 5-1 Eagles

Players to Consider

Top Captains/MVPs & Core FLEX Plays

RB Saquon Barkley: There probably isn’t much to be said here, but Barkley is an obvious captain/MVP choice right out of the gates. He became the ninth player in NFL history to rush for 2,000 yards in 2024, and added 33 receptions for 278 yards, with 15 total TDs. Barkley went on to add 574 scrimmage yards and five more TDs in the playoffs. He was easily the top fantasy RB a season ago, and he accomplished that despite Jalen Hurts rushing for 14 TDs of his own… “tush push” and all that. It’s amazing what a good O-Line does for a premier RB when they’ve spent most of their career struggling behind an awful O-Line, like the Giants had. The Eagles once again have what most consider to be the best O-Line in the NFL heading into 2025. Matchup-wise, Barkley’s outlook is even brighter than it would have appeared a week ago. What happened a week ago? You’re probably aware, but the Cowboys traded All-Pro LB/DE Micah Parsons to the Packers. There is hard evidence and very nerdy stats supporting the fact that, in recent seasons, the Cowboys have gone from one of the better rush defenses with Parsons on the field to one of the worst run defenses with him off the field. So, as if there was any doubt to begin with, Barkley should have a big opening night.

WR CeeDee Lamb: Lamb sets up as the go-to captain/MVP choice on the Cowboys’ side of the ball. He had a lackluster 2024 season, by his standards, and hauled in 600 fewer receiving yards than the season before. His TD total also dropped to six, from 12 TDs in 2023. He still saw a quality 24.6% Target%, nearly double that of the next-closest teammate (TE Jake Ferguson, 13.9% TGT%), and averaged 17.6 PPR FPPG. One of the Cowboys’ big offseason acquisitions was trading for WR George Pickens back in May. Pickens will no doubt eat up his fair share of targets, but he will also serve as a big-play WR that can take some defensive pressure away from Lamb. The Eagles were the NFL’s #2 pass defense in 2024, so the sledding will probably be tough. But the Cowboys are also hefty +8.5 point underdogs tonight, which means they will likely be playing from behind and leaning on a pass-heavy approach.

WR DeVonta Smith: One has to worry about how much the Eagles will need to pass in this game, and WR AJ Brown continues to stand out as the “alpha WR1” on this team. But I don’t mind saving some salary (versus AJ Brown) by going with Smith in this spot as a captain/MVP candidate. The Cowboys showed a weakness against WR2s last season, and Smith had a monster week 17 against them, going for 120 yards and two TDs on six receptions. We can’t expect massive target volume for Smith, but I do like his odds of finding the endzone tonight (+162 ATTD), and the Eagles should have no issues moving the ball. Smith’s ceiling will rise significantly if Dallas manages to keep this game competitive for the better part of four quarters.

Flex Plays and Leverage Captain/MVP Options

QB Jalen Hurts: Hurts is arguably the best floor play in this game. A QB who can add value with his legs is one of the most valuable assets in fantasy football. He’s not likely to pass for 300+ yards, but, considering what he can do on the ground, he doesn’t need to throw it all over the field for four quarters. As previously noted, Hurts scored 14 rushing TDs last season, and he carries -160 odds to score a [non-passing] TD tonight. He has averaged 42.2 rush YPG in his last six meetings against the Cowboys, which is equivalent to about 105 passing yards in fantasy scoring. So, for DFS purposes, we can pretty much view Hurts as a low-end RB with high TD equity who also happens to pass the ball. And, as mentioned in the Barkley spotlight, this Cowboys’ defense is going to be much worse, both against the run and in their pass rush, with Micah Parsons no longer on the roster.

WR AJ Brown: Once again, passing volume is a concern for this Eagles’ offense, but they will be airing it out a bit tonight. AJ Brown commanded 38.8% of the Eagles’ total air yards a season ago, alongside a team-leading 24.2% Target%. The addition of Saquon Barkley hurt the ceilings of both AJ Brown and DeVonta Smith, but Brown is still capable of doing a lot without garnering 10+ targets. He’s also the third-most likely ATTD (anytime touchdown) scorer tonight with +150 odds.

WR George Pickens: Time will tell how Pickens will mesh in this Cowboys’ offense, but, on the surface, he does seem like a good complement to CeeDee Lamb. Among WRs with at least 60 receptions last season, Pickens was third with a 13.7-yard aDOT. That indicates that he was generally targeted deeper down the field. Worth mentioning, because underneath and short/intermediate routes tend to be Lamb’s bread and butter. Once again, it’s a tough pass defense to go up against, but the Cowboys should be throwing it plenty tonight.

Flex Fillers, Fliers, and Sleepers

RB Javonte Williams: The Cowboys’ backfield is a big question mark heading into this season, as it has been ever since Zeke Elliott began losing the battle to Father Time. But, at least to begin the season, Javonte Williams is expected to operate as the lead back. Williams saw zero action in the preseason, which is a positive indicator that the Cowboys wanted to ensure his health for the games that actually matter. This is likely going to look like a backfield committee at some point, perhaps even beginning in week one, but Williams is cheap enough as a presumed lead RB to consider as a FLEX target, even if the matchup and implied game script don’t look great. The chance at 12-15 touches with some decent TD equity often overrules matchup concerns when it comes to single-game formats.

TE Jake Ferguson: Before Dak Prescott suffered a season-ending hamstring injury in week nine of last season, Ferguson had been quite involved in the passing game. He had at least seven targets in five of his first seven games, but didn’t do much down the latter half of the season with Cooper Rush at QB. The Eagles’ defense has shown a weakness against TEs in the past, so this is a solid spot to consider Ferguson, who should see a quality share of the targets -- I’d imagine at least five targets will go Ferguson’s way this evening.

K Brandon Aubrey / K Jake Elliott: Not the best kicking weather with a bit of rain in the forecast and winds expected to hover around 10 mph. But, as they often do, kickers are going to be solid options as FLEX plays this evening.

Eagles D/ST: It will be a raucous environment in Philly tonight. The Eagles are heavy favorites, and the Cowboys are being pinned with a sub-20 point implied total. We’re expecting plenty of pass volume out of Dak Prescott, which opens the door for more sacks and turnovers.

WR Jalen Tolbert: Tolbert will operate as the de facto WR3 for the Cowboys this season. Unlike the newly acquired George Pickens, Tolbert has established rapport with Prescott and provided plenty of serviceable fantasy scores last season. With the Cowboys’ defense taking a step back sans Micah Parsons, this is probably going to be an offense to target for pass catchers this season. I’ve been taking Tolbert fairly often with my final 20th round pick in best ball drafts due to liking his chances as a flier. The same holds true tonight (liking Tolbert as a viable flier), and it’s a cheap way to gain exposure to a presumably high-volume Cowboys’ passing offense in this game.

WR KaVontae Turpin: Turpin is very much a gadget guy whose main role is operating as the Cowboys’ kick returner, and he is among the NFL’s best returners. But Dallas routinely found ways to get the ball in his hands on the offensive side of the ball last season, and will likely do the same again this season. He’s a very undersized receiver who won’t be seeing many targets over the middle of the field or anything. But a big play off of a couple of jet sweeps and/or WR screens in his direction could be enough to land him in the optimal lineup. And there’s always the off-chance he returns a kick to the house.

RB Will Shipley: If you’re playing the “Eagles massive blowout” angle, Shipley would make some sense. With Kenneth Gainwell now with the Steelers, Shipley is assumed to be the backup to Saquon Barkley, with AJ Dillon operating as the third back. It is a long season, so if the Eagles have this game well in hand by the third quarter, Shipley could mix in for some touches down the stretch in garbage time. Even without a blowout, he probably gets a handful of touches, but without a lucky TD, he probably doesn’t crack the optimal in that scenario.

TE Luke Schoonmaker: Schoonmaker is firmly the TE2 behind Ferguson, and he is largely irrelevant as long as Ferguson is healthy. But he did have some solid games when Ferguson was injured at times last season, and, who knows, he could also luckbox his way to a TD near the goal line if the Cowboys roll out in 12 or 13 personnel formations.

Quick Note: I usually put together a “stack concepts” section at this point in these single-game NFL newsletters, where I try to lay out some viable three-player stacks to build out lineups with. I will get those going starting next week in the “Primetime Previews”. Best of luck tonight!

Once again, if you have any questions DM me on Twitter or hit me up in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck this week!