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LineStar NFL Prop Show w/ Tyler Wiemann

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Kansas City Chiefs (-3) at Los Angeles Chargers | 46.5 O/U

Chiefs: 24.8 Implied Points | Chargers: 21.8 Implied Points

Notable DFS-Relevant Injuries: WR Rashee Rice - OUT (suspension), WR Jalen Royals - OUT

Score Prediction: Chargers - 27, Chiefs - 23

Showdown Roster Construction (in order of preference): 3-3 Balanced, 4-2 Chargers, 4-2 Chiefs

Players to Consider

Top Captains/MVPs & Core FLEX Plays

WR Ladd McConkey: McConkey surprisingly carries the highest price tag in this showdown matchup, at least on DraftKings (second-highest on FanDuel), and it’s hard to argue after a stellar rookie year. He racked up 82 catches for 1,155 yards and seven touchdowns, establishing himself as Justin Herbert’s top receiving option with a strong 26% target share. He caught fire late in the season, hauling in at least five receptions in each of his last seven games and averaging nearly 94 yards per contest over that stretch. He also erupted for a monster 9-197-1 receiving line on 14 targets in the Wild Card round of the playoffs. With the Chargers leaning more on the passing game down the stretch and more of a balanced offense rather than a run-heavy one, McConkey’s role should remain secure heading into 2025. The matchup with Kansas City is fairly neutral — they were middle of the pack against wideouts last season. McConkey faced them once, putting up 17.7 PPR fantasy points on seven targets, five grabs, 67 yards, and a score.

QB Justin Herbert: Herbert remains one of the more polarizing quarterbacks in the realm of pro football, but from a fantasy lens, he might be a touch undervalued heading into 2025. He was just QB16 in fantasy points per game last season, though much of that stemmed from the Chargers’ early run-heavy approach to begin the season. Once the reins loosened and Herbert was allowed to let it rip, he averaged nearly 20 fantasy points per game from Week 8 onward, topping 19.5 FP in seven of his last 11 starts. The matchup isn’t easy — he struggled against Kansas City in two meetings last year — but context matters. One game versus the Chiefs came during the start of 2024 when the Chargers were among the lowest PassPlay% offenses in the NFL, and the other was without top WR Ladd McConkey. For his career, Herbert has held his own versus the Chiefs, averaging 22.1 FPPG across eight starts. I normally don’t love taking QBs at the captain/MVP spot, since they are only optimal captain/MVP plays around 20% of the time. But Herbert does bring some rushing upside to the table, and he averaged 26.1 rush YPG at home last season with four total rushing TDs.

WR Xavier Worthy: Worthy heads into his sophomore season with big expectations after emerging as Kansas City’s top wideout late last season. From Week 15 through the playoffs, he logged an 80% route rate while commanding 24.9% of the targets and 31% of the end-zone looks — a major jump from earlier in the year. With Rashee Rice (suspension) sidelined for the first six games of this season and Travis Kelce on the tail end of his career, Worthy is locked into a clear No. 1 role and could see even more growth after a full offseason in the system. His elite speed gives him massive upside, and the floor is strong enough to make him a consistent factor in the Chiefs’ offense. He’s going to be very popular on this single-game slate, but he’s a clear captain/MVP candidate.

Flex Plays and Leverage Captain/MVP Options

QB Patrick Mahomes: Mahomes is coming off a down year by his standards, finishing just QB13 in fantasy points per game with career lows in passing yards (245 YPG) and touchdown rate. However, in his defense, his supporting cast was arguably the weakest of his career, and Kansas City spent the offseason upgrading both his weapons and protection, including a first-round pick at left tackle. Even without WR Rashee Rice available to begin the season, Mahomes projects as a safe floor option on this single-game slate… though his questionable upside gives me pause on slotting him in as a primary captain/MVP candidate. The Chargers did allow nearly 20% more FPPG to QBs at home over their final nine games of the 2024 season, and in 12 career games versus the Chargers, Mahomes has averaged 272.5 pass YPG and 26.3 rush YPG with a 27:7 TD:INT ratio.

TE Travis Kelce: After a sluggish start in 2024, Kelce closed strong with 9.7 targets and 6.9 catches per game over his final 10 outings, and he reminded everyone of his ceiling with a vintage postseason performance against Houston where he posted a 7-117-1 receiving line. From week 8 on (12 games), Kelce led the Chiefs with a 24.7% Target%, which is very strong for a tight end, and averaged 14.5 PPR fantasy points/gm. The concern for Kelce is touchdowns — he had just three last year (four, including playoffs) after double-digit scores in four of the previous six seasons. However, the underlying metrics suggest positive regression is coming in the touchdown department. That makes Kelce a strong bounce-back candidate, even at age 36. That said, tonight’s matchup could be a problem. The Chargers have defended tight ends well dating back to last season, and allowed the 3rd fewest YPG to TEs over their final nine games. So, Kelce may need to find the endzone if he is to pay off in DFS lineups tonight, but he is, at worst, viewed as the No. 2 receiver in a Patrick Mahomes-led offense that will continue to play without WR Rashee Rice.

RB Omarion Hampton: The Chargers’ backfield is one of the bigger mysteries on this showdown slate, with Najee Harris expected back from his July 4th firework-induced eye injury and rookie Omarion Hampton pushing for a major role. Harris has never been the most efficient option (3.9 career yards per carry), and given the draft capital spent on Hampton, the rookie looks like the back to target early on. Head coach Jim Harbaugh came out and said Hampton would operate as the No. 1 RB, and Harris’s lack of participation during training camp could have played a sizable role in that decision. Hampton has tons of talent, averaging 5.9 YPC over the final two years at UNC, and he has also proven to be a capable pass catcher. With a good showing tonight, he’ll have a real shot to emerge as the solidified lead option right away, but the matchup against Kansas City is tough, as the Chiefs allowed the fewest fantasy points to running backs last season. But if the volume is there, Hampton should shake out just fine as a FLEX option and, with a little TD luck, he could backdoor as the optimal captain/MVP as well, similar to how Javonte Williams did last night.

Flex Fillers, Fliers, and Sleepers

WR Keenan Allen: Allen returns to the Chargers after a year in Chicago, where he flashed late-season juice across a five-game stretch (Week 12-16), averaging 6.4 catches, 82.4 yards, and five TDs. Los Angeles needed a veteran presence in their WR room, and Allen was about as sensible an option they could find. They only had to give up a fourth-round pick to get him back over from the Bears. The question for Allen will be where will he carve out his role in this offense. At this stage of his career, Allen is more comfortable in the slot, but with McConkey now in the primary slot role, Allen is likely to see more perimeter usage. That’s not ideal for a 33-year-old who wins with savvy moves and soft hands more so than straight-line burst off the line of scrimmage. From a DFS perspective, he remains very playable — Allen’s floor in PPR scoring is still respectable if he garners volume — but the ceiling may be capped in this version of the Chargers offense. Still, there is no shortage of rapport built up between Justin Herbert and Allen, so the veteran WR deserves some consideration in this game.

WR Hollywood Brown: Brown missed most of 2024 due to injury, but he brings genuine big-play upside to the Chiefs offense that is without Rashee Rice for their first six games. Brown has shown the capability of putting up a 1,000-yard season in the past, even in a run-heavy Ravens offense, and he pairs elite speed with a knack for getting open. In his limited time on the field last year, Brown had a quality 25% target per route rate. With a bigger role this season, at least to start, he could put up some very fantasy-relevant numbers.

K Cameron Dicker & K Harrison Butker: Both kickers are firmly in play in this domed matchup. I’d expect both offenses to be able to move the ball fairly well tonight, but several drives are highly likely to stall out within field goal range. Ya know... kinda like how the majority of NFL games go.

RB Kareem Hunt: Upon his return in week 13, RB Isiah Pacheco never really regained form after he fractured his fibula in week two of last season. Kareem Hunt signed with his former team off the street and put up plenty of serviceable stat lines. Pacheco will still be the RB1 and should look more like his old self after a healthy offseason, but Hunt is still going to be a factor. And he may also own the goal-line RB role.

WR Tre’ Harris: The Chargers used second-round capital on Harris in this year’s draft, so he should be involved in the passing game. But, with Keenan Allen back in town and the Chargers holding out hope that Quentin Johnston will “figure it out” by continuing to give him plenty of playing time, Harris’ snaps will likely be limited to begin the year. Still, he is cheap enough that one or two big plays could land him in the optimal lineup.

WR JuJu Smith-Schuster: Smith-Schuster is a total flier, but he had a sneaky-high route participation rate last year and should be on the field for most/all of the Chiefs' three WR sets.

TE Tyler Conklin & TE Will Dissly: Both Conklin and Dissly are vying for the Chargers’ TE1 role, and the competition carries over from training camp into the regular season. As of now, both guys project pretty similarly, but only one will likely come away with a solid receiving line. For now, I’d side with Dissly having the better game as he has established rapport with Herbert as a member of the Chargers last season, while Conklin is a new addition, coming over from the Jets. But, really, it’s mostly a coin flip here. As a quick aside, I would not play both of these TEs in the same lineup.

TE Noah Gray: Noah Gray scored five touchdowns for the Chiefs in 2024, two more than Kelce, despite a modest 8% target share. He ran a route on 44% of dropbacks and was targeted on 15% of them, so he was more involved than some may realize. That’s enough to make Gray an intriguing flier tonight.

WR Tyquan Thornton: Thornton turned heads in the preseason by leading the Chiefs in receiving yards, earning himself a spot on the 53-man roster. Preseason performances only count for so much once the actual season rolls around, but with Rashee Rice out and rookie WR Jalen Royals sidelined, Thornton could carve out a role in Week 1. Though, to state the obvious, it’s a very boom-or-bust role.

Quick Note: I usually put together a “stack concepts” section at this point in these single-game NFL newsletters, where I try to lay out some viable three-player stacks to build out lineups with. I will get those going starting next week in the “Primetime Previews”. Best of luck tonight!

Once again, if you have any questions DM me on Twitter or hit me up in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck this week!