By: @Ryan_Humphries | LineStar Chat: @N1TRO

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If you’re like me, this week is like Christmas, my birthday, New Year’s Eve, and every other holiday all rolled into one. From this point forward, we have football several days out of every week all the way through to February!

If you’re a new LineStar subscriber who is getting these NFL newsletters for the first time, the weekly focus for this article is on the NFL main slate. If you missed any other LineStar NFL content, you can find links to everything in the header above. Between the PreSnap Podcast, strategy guide, primetime previews (for single game ‘showdown’ slates), and NFL takeaways which features a look back into the previous week’s games, we’ve got ya covered across the board. Of course, these are all just resources to help aide your own personal research each week and shouldn't be what you solely rely on!

Now, getting down to brass tacks, the opening week one main slate is loaded up with 12 games. I usually advise folks to play a bit lighter on your bankroll than normal until we’re at least three or four weeks into the season and start to actually get an idea of what each team's identity is starting to look like in 2020. I fully back that once again this season, especially since we’re going in pretty blindly and didn’t even get a slight preview of teams in the preseason. Roster shakeups, free agent/trade acquisitions, coaching staff turnover, off-season injuries, and rookie draft selections are all going to make many teams look much differently than they did in 2019. On top of that, we still have to be mindful of the fact that we remain in the middle of a pandemic and NFL health and safety guidelines are going to hold teams highly accountable. But I won’t waste too much more time here, let’s get into it!

Week one main slate match-ups with implied point totals and spreads:

Games to Target

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ New Orleans Saints (-3.5) | 49 O/U

TB: 22.8 implied points | NO: 26.3 implied points.

I mean, I think we’re all tuning into this game on Sunday, right? ‘Tom-pa’ Bay Brady traveling to the Superdome to face off with Drew Brees? The intrigue factor is off the charts but this game could also provide plenty of DFS goodness. This game is tied for the highest point total on the slate and there are a clear number of viable plays on both sides of the ball. If we’re going off of last season, this is a pace up spot for New Orleans. The Saints were 29th in the league in offensive pace in 2019 whereas the Bucs ranked 8th. Now, there’s no telling how different each team’s system will be. Obviously, we can likely expect much of the same from the Saints, but a Tom Brady-led Bucs team is going to look worlds apart from a wildly sporadic Jameis Winston-led offense. But Vegas is expecting this one to be a closely contested match-up, with just a 3.5 point spread, so we could see each offense maintain aggression for a full four quarters of football. The fact that this is a domed match-up only helps the chances for high offensive output.

Seattle Seahawks (-2) @ Atlanta Falcons | 49 O/U

SEA: 25.5 implied points | ATL: 23.5 implied points

Most weeks in this section, I am going to mention one fairly obvious game that could be worth stacking up along with one less obvious game that may have a somewhat low point total but has sneaky potential to turn into a shootout. For the opening week, I’ll play it a little safer and trust Vegas on this one. This Seahawks/Falcons game is tied with the aforementioned Bucs/Saints game with the highest total of the slate. There is some serious shootout potential here between two very capable offenses and the receiving options are the real draw from my viewpoint. Guys like Julio, Ridley, Lockett, Metcalf, and Hurst all have some legitimate upside. This is a good potential spot to stack either quarterback with two of his pass catchers in GPPs. Atlanta was fifth in offensive pace last year which should provide some extra offensive opportunities for Seattle (20th in off. pace in 2019). While Seattle did run the ball at the 6th highest rate a season ago, I am expecting them to lean heavier on Russell Wilson and the passing game while also picking up the overall offensive tempo. This is also another game being played in a dome stadium, which has statistically been proven to increase the average overall score by about 9%. That may not seem like a lot, but that little bit of extra offensive upside can make a huge difference in DFS GPPs where payout tiers are separated by just a few fantasy points.

Quarterbacks to Consider

Potential quarterback targets at high/mid/low price points.

Lamar Jackson | DK: $8.1k, FD: $9.4k | vs. CLE

If you want the highest ceiling possible at the position, Lamar Jackson is your obvious selection. I’m more of a “pay down at QB” kinda guy in cash games, so QBs like Jackson and Mahomes tend to only end up in my player pool for GPPs, unless the match-up is just too tempting. The Browns defense is returning just 58.5% of their defensive starter snaps from 2019 and they’re going through a significant turnover among the coaching staff, so I have a hard time imagining a scenario where Baltimore *doesn’t* roll through Cleveland. And, I’m a bit surprised to see Baltimore as only 7.5 point favorites. Jackson offers a strong floor and his rushing ability (84.3 rushing ypg in ‘19) provides an insane ceiling. I have no worries about his DFS outlook in this game, but I am expecting his overall fantasy prowess to regress a bit this season, particularly in the touchdown efficiency department.

Cam Newton | DK: $6.1k, FD: $7.3k | vs. MIA

This is typically the price range where I look for my cash game QB and Cam Newton might be my guy this week. Sure, he hasn’t played a live action football game in a year and may have a bit of rust to shake off, but there have been no reports out of training camp indicating any sort of lingering injury. When you pair his rushing ability alongside the play-calling of a Bill Belichick-led team,you get the feeling that there is a lot of fantasy potential for Newton this season. The Patriots will hold a strong 24.8 implied team total and Newton should possess a strong floor and solid ceiling against a exploitable Dolphins defense.

Jimmy Garoppolo | DK: $5.8k, FD: $7.4k | vs. ARI

Garoppolo is an affordable GPP target in this spot. He’s a quarterback who may not have the safest floor, but does possess a strong ceiling. Under Arizona head coach Kliff Kingsbury’s uptempo attack, the Cardinals were one of the fastest paced teams in the league last season. That should be the case once again this year which would provide opposing offenses extra possessions in return. In two starts against the Cardinals last year, Garoppolo basically had two ceiling games, as he threw for a combined 741 yards, 8 TDs, and two picks while completing 62-of-82 passes (75.6% completion rate). The Cardinals will have a bunch of new faces on their defense this year but are currently still being projected to be a bottom five overall defensive unit. The 49ers 27.5 implied points are the second-most on this slate (behind the Ravens). Despite the run-heavy nature of San Francisco, alongside some injury and depth issues at wide receiver, Garoppolo is worth keeping in mind when building your GPP player pool this week.

Running Backs to Consider

Potential running back targets at high/mid/low price points.

Christian McCaffrey | DK: $10k, FD: $10k | vs. LV

Even at $10k, CMC is almost an auto-play in cash games and will almost certainly be the chalkiest play on the board. Despite questions surrounding this Panthers team (new head coach, new coordinators, heavy player turnover, new starting QB, etc), one steady constant should be McCaffrey’s ‘do-it-all’ role on the offense. Expect 25+ overall touches and potential for multiple touchdowns for the safest RB fantasy asset in the game.

Josh Jacobs | DK: $6.8k, FD: $8.2k | @ CAR

If you’re pivoting off of CMC but still targeting a high volume RB, McCaffrey’s counterpart might not be a bad option. The Panthers are in the midst of essentially a complete rebuild and their defense is utterly gutted coming into this year (35.2% starter’s snaps returning on defense - ranks last in league). Many believe this defensive unit to be the worst in the NFL. Jacobs should be an early down workhorse with potential for 20+ carries. He only caught 20 passes (on 27 targets) for 166 yards in 2019, but there is belief that his role in the passing game could take a moderate leap forward.

Miles Sanders | DK: $6.3k, FD: $6.8k | @ WAS

If you’ve been drafting in any season long fantasy football leagues this season, you’ll know Sanders is a near unanimously coveted second round pick. Expectations are high for him to take on a full three down role after he combined for over 1,400 all-purpose yards as a rookie last season. The Washington Football Team has perhaps one of the best defensive lines in the NFL but I would expect the Eagles to create plays to give Sanders to ball in space where he can do most of his damage. Philly is also a strong -5.5 point favorite and a positive game script could be another plus for Sanders. But do keep an eye on the practice reports since Sanders was listed as a limited participant today (Thursday) due to a hamstring issue. A full practice Friday would put my mind at ease, but be ready to look towards backup RB Boston Scott (DK: $4.8k, FD: $4.7k) as a value pivot in case Sanders ends up being a no-go.

Update: Sanders is questionable for this week with a hamstring injury.

Marlon Mack | DK: $5.3k, FD: $6.1k | @ JAX

The Colts backfield is going to be split between Mack and rookie Jonathan Taylor. At least in the early goings of the season you can probably give Mack the nod to likely receive the majority of the work -- perhaps in the range of a 60/30/10 split between Mack/Taylor/Hines, respectively. It’s also worth mentioning that Mack is currently listed at No. 1 on the depth chart. The Jacksonville “Tank for Trevor (Lawrence)” campaign may start right away in 2020 and they’ve gutted their team, especially on the defensive side. The Colts are heavy -8 point favorites and the Indy game script could easily favor a heavy run oriented attack.

Antonio Gibson | DK: $4k, FD: $4.6k | vs. PHI

Gibson is perhaps your chalk value pick this week as all the current media buzz is pointing toward him to handle the majority of RB touches after Washington released veteran RB Adrian Peterson last week. If you ever read the college football newsletters that I write up (which the first 2020 issue will be released tomorrow, by the way! Woo, football!), you may have seen Gibson mentioned on a couple of occasions. While Gibson only combined for 77 total touches in college (44 rec., 33 rush) he was insanely efficient, scoring 14 touchdowns on those limited opportunities. The NFL will obviously be a major step up in level of competition, but this guy is electric with the football in space and even if he only gets a dozen or so touches, he could turn that into a lot of production. 

Wide Receivers to Consider

Potential wide receiver targets at high/mid/low price points.

Michael Thomas | DK: $9k, FD: $8.8k | vs. TB

Similar to McCaffrey when talking RBs, it’s pretty straightforward who the top DFS option is most weeks when it comes to WRs. In future newsletters, these very top options won't be highlighted all too often, but I figured since it's week one, I'll at least mention the studs for once. Michael Thomas is coming off of a historical season where he hauled in 149 catches on 185 targets for 1,725 yards and nine TDs. Some of those numbers will almost certainly regress this season but he still has the best floor among all WRs in nearly any given week, particularly when the Saints are at home. Thomas goes as Brees goes… and Brees loves to play at home, as evidenced by his noticeably better home/road splits. In 2019, Thomas averaged a massive 28.9 DKFP per game at home (19.9 DKFP away). Tampa Bay was also a reverse funnel defense in 2019 -- meaning they were very stout against the run but got demolished in the passing game. They gave up the most FPPG to WRs last season and may not be much better this year. It may be too difficult or restrictive to fit both Thomas and CMC into the same lineup, but when it comes to cash games I’d be playing at least one of those guys.

Chris Godwin | DK: $7.1k, FD: $7.7k | @ NO

Staying in this Superdome showdown, I’ll also be looking to Godwin as a viable upper-tier WR. It’s a bit of an unknown how the target split between Godwin and Mike Evans will go, but my money is on Godwin to see around ten targets in most games. Ten targets coming from Tom Brady could end up being much more valuable than ten targets from Jameis Winston last season, and yet Godwin still had some insanely productive games despite the polarizing QB play. Mike Evans has been a non-participant for two practices in a row, so keep an eye on his status heading into the weekend. If he is out or limited, it will be hard to not give Godwin some considerable exposure.

Update: Mike Evans is currently doubtful to play this week.

DK Metcalf | DK: $5.8k, FD: $6.4k | @ ATL

Metcalf had a breakout rookie year where he had 69 catches on 114 targets for 1,119 yards and eight scores. Receivers very rarely reach those kind of numbers in their rookie season, and most take a significant step forward in their sophomore year so it’ll be fun to see what Metcalf does in 2020. Even as a rookie, Metcalf led the entire NFL in endzone targets and if the Seahawks do indeed turn to a heavier passing attack, Metcalf is going to have some monstrous games. As mentioned earlier, this game features a ton of juicy shootout upside.

AJ Green | DK: $5.7k, FD: $6.2k | vs. LAC

Green is reportedly 100% and if he is even remotely close to the sort of receiver he’s been throughout his career (when healthy), then he could be well in play with these sort of salaries. Even as a rookie, Joe Burrow is likely a significant QB upgrade from Andy Dalton. Despite turning 32 in July and being plagued by injuries in recent years, Green could immediately step in and see 8+ targets a game from Burrow. Perhaps there’s a bit of risk with Green due to the time off and he’ll likely draw shadow coverage from Chargers top CB Casey Hayward, but he’ll almost definitely make my GPP player pool.

Terry McLaurin | DK: $5.6k, FD: $6.5k | vs. PHI

Receiving options in Washington are pretty thin, to say the least, and McLaurin should soak up at least a 25% target share and build on his fantastic rookie season (58 rec., 93 tgt., 919 yds., 7 TDs). QB Dwayne Haskins Jr. was so bad last year that he practically has no where to go but up in terms of effectiveness, and McLaurin is going to be his first read on many, many dropbacks. Washington very likely trails much of this game which would lead them to stay in catch-up mode. Not fun if you’re a Washington Football Team fan, but possibly very good if you draft McLaurin.

Scotty Miller | DK: $4k, FD: $4.5k | @ NO

Miller is a bit dependent on Mike Evans (hamstring) being out, but he’s received a lot of buzz out of training camp and plenty of praise from the GOAT himself. Miller has 4.39 speed and could do a lot with limited opportunities. It’s not a great sample size but he averaged 15.4 ypc on his 13 receptions in his 2019 rookie season. GPP-only play in an opening week where there isn’t much standout value.

Update: As I noted with Chris Godwin, Mike Evans is currently doubtful to play this week.

Tight Ends to Consider

Tight end targets at high/mid/low price points.

Zach Ertz | DK: $5.8k, FD: $6.6k | @ WAS

If you want and elite high volume tight end but maybe don’t want to spend all the way up to George Kittle, then Ertz fits the bill. Rookie WR Jalen Reagor was first thought to be a sure bet to miss this game, but he was listed as a full participant in practice on Thursday -- a sign he will be a go in week one. Still, the Eagles are short on viable pass catchers and there is plenty of proven chemistry between Ertz and Carson Wentz. I’d expect a floor of seven targets but realistically he could see a dozen or more passes come his way.

Hayden Hurst | DK: $4.3k, FD: $5.2k | vs. SEA

It’s pretty well known that Matt Ryan likes to throw to his tight end. Austin Hooper caught 75 passes on 97 targets for 787 yards and six touchdowns last year for the Falcons. With Hooper in Cleveland, Hurst looks to take on a similar role. Hurst was overshadowed by Mark Andrews along with a super heavy run-oriented offense when he was in Baltimore. But, as someone who watched just about every game he played in college, Hurst is a legitimately athletic tight end and will have a MUCH higher fantasy impact than he did for the Ravens.

Logan Thomas | DK: $2.8k, FD: $4k | vs. PHI

I don’t really like punting at tight end early in the season, and I would rarely recommend doing it on FanDuel due to how their TE pricing is set up. But if it’s a route you may be looking to take in a GPP, Logan Thomas could see some solid volume on a Washington team without many viable receiving options. Risky, risky but if Thomas gets lucky with a touchdown he could have something like a 5/45/1 statline.

Defenses to Consider

Defense & special teams is a very volatile “position” and shouldn’t take up too much time in your DFS research. However, here are two D/STs I’m on board with this week.

Ravens D/ST | DK: $3.1k, FD: $4.8k | vs. CLE

Relatively safe but a tad pricey. Baltimore boasts a stellar secondary, perhaps the best in the NFL, and they bolstered their front seven in the off-season. They should fare well against a Browns team that went through a lot of turnover with both players and coaches. Cleveland has just a 20.5 implied point total.

Lions D/ST | DK: $2.7k, FD: $3.7k | vs. CHI

More affordable but a bit risky. The Lions aren't a fantastic defensive team but they did look to beef up that side of the ball in the off-season. Also, Mitch Trubisky is starting on the other side, so that could definitely lead to some turnover opportunities. The Bears also have just a 19.8 implied point total.

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Once again, if you have any questions DM me on Twitter @Ryan_Humphries or tag me in the LineStar NFL chat using @N1TRO. Good luck this week!

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