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Main Slate Rundown 📝

Whether you’re a complete football and DFS junkie or a casual fan who likes to dabble in DFS here and there, we can all agree that this time of the year represents true bliss. From this point forward, we have real, meaningful football being played several days out of every week all the way through into February!

If you’re a newer LineStar subscriber seeing these NFL newsletters for the first time, the weekly focus for this particular article will be directed at the week’s NFL Sunday main slate. Between LineStar’s YouTube content with Tyler Wiemann and Shannon Sommerville, the main slate articles, and primetime previews (for single-game showdown slates), we’ve got ya covered with NFL DFS content across the board. Of course, these are all just resources to help aid your own personal research each week and shouldn’t be what you solely rely on!

Now, getting down to why we’re all here, the opening week one main slate is loaded up with 13 games. I usually advise folks to go a bit lighter on their bankroll than normal, at least until we’re at least three or four weeks into the season. That is when we begin to get a concrete idea of what each team’s identity is starting to look like in 2023. Roster shakeups, free agent/trade acquisitions, coaching staff turnover, off-season injuries, and rookie draft selections are all going to make many teams look much different than they did a season ago. But I won’t waste too much more time here. Let’s get into this thing! Best of luck this season, my friends!

Main slate match-ups with implied point totals and spreads:

Weather Report

As a reminder, weather plays less of a factor in football than it does in other sports but it is still worth making note of any games that could experience wet conditions, high winds, and/or frigid, snowy conditions.

• HOU @ BAL: Scattered showers are a strong possibility.

• ARI @ WAS: Chance for scattered showers.

• PHI @ NE: Chance for scattered showers.

Quarterbacks to Consider

Potential quarterback targets at high/mid/low price points.

Lamar Jackson, BAL | DK: $8k, FD: $8.9k | vs. HOU

There is a lot of hope that Lamar Jackson could have an MVP-caliber season under new offensive coordinator Todd Monken. Monken has four years of NFL OC experience but, more recently, he comes over from the college ranks where he helped lead the Georgia Bulldogs to back-to-back national championships. We can expect a sizable jump in pass attempts for Lamar Jackson and the Ravens offense, though Jackson’s elite ability to run the ball will remain in the game plan. The Ravens rank second on the slate with a 26.3 implied point total and they get a week one match-up with the Houston Texans. Houston improved their defense with the NFL Draft and some new signings in the off-season. They also brought new defensive-minded head coach DeMeco Ryans over from the 49ers. That said, while the Texans may not be an absolute dumpster fire on defense this season, they’re still probably a bottom-10 defensive unit overall. Big upside for Lamar Jackson in this week one match-up at home.

Justin Herbert, LAC | DK: $6.9k, FD: $8.1k | vs. MIA

The only game on the main slate that owns a 50+ point over/under resides here in this Chargers/Dolphins match-up with LAC being three-point home favorites. New Chargers OC Kellen Moore should have plenty of success with a young gunslinger of Herbert’s talent level. In four seasons as the Cowboys OC, Moore led them to two league-leading finishes in points scored and huge numbers in the passing game. Herbert attempted 41.1 passes per game in 2022 and the Dolphins surrendered the 2nd most FPPG to QBs. In what sets up as a very fantasy-friendly environment, Herbert should be a strong DFS option out of the mid-range.

Sam Howell, WAS | DK: $4.9k, FD: $7.1k | vs. ARI

Strap in because we’re probably going to be picking on this Cardinals defense all year long and it begins in week one with value QB Sam Howell. Howell heads into his second NFL season, and his first as a week one starter. He’s a capable passer who can also boost his fantasy scores with some strong rushing ability. In his lone NFL game action in week 18 of last season, Howell ran five times for 35 yards and a rushing TD. In his final collegiate season with UNC, he racked up 828 yards rushing and 11 rushing scores on 183 attempts (4.5 YPC). Most are picking the Cardinals to field the NFL’s worst defense so, given the match-up, we can feel pretty good about “punting” with Howell at QB in some GPP lineup builds. Howell is particularly enticing at his sub-$5k price tag on DraftKings.

Running Backs to Consider

Potential running back targets at high/mid/low price points.

Austin Ekeler, LAC | DK: $8.4k, FD: $9k | vs. MIA

It would be totally on-brand for early-season NFL tomfoolery if this game ends up being a 14-10 kinda snooze-fest but, for now, we’ll continue to assume that the offensive fireworks will be aplenty between the Chargers and Dolphins in week one. On top of what Ekeler can provide as a typical runner, he brings a great receiving floor to DFS lineups on a weekly basis. He accounted for a 19.8% target share in 2022, including a 28.3% redzone target%, which are target share figures that bests most wide receivers in the NFL. The Dolphins allowed the 8th most receptions to RBs a season ago and tied for 1st with the most RB receiving touchdowns allowed. It’s a prime match-up for Ekeler to start off hot to begin the season.

Aaron Jones, GB | DK: $6.3k, FD: $7.2k | @ CHI

As touched on above, the Packers wide receiver room, which was thin to begin with, is very banged up heading into week one. The offense may very well run through Aaron Jones in this match-up with a Bears defense that allowed the second-most FPPG to RBs in 2022. AJ Dillon (DK: $5.2k, FD: $6.1k) will also handle his fair share of touches, but Jones should take on the lion’s share of the backfield work. The Packers offense may struggle for much of this season, but it won’t be at any fault of Aaron Jones who will also be running behind a top-10 offensive line.

Miles Sanders, CAR | DK: $5.6k, FD: $6.9k | @ ATL

Sanders was one guy I tried to grab in as many season-long and best ball leagues as I could, given his enticing middle-round ADP. After losing out on numerous rushes and touchdown opportunities to Jalen Hurts, Kenneth Gainwell, and Boston Scott as a member of the Eagles, he should face very little competition in Carolina after inking a 4-year, $25 million deal this off-season. Now that he’s “the guy” he may provide 100+ total yards and touchdown upside on a routine basis, even on a Panthers offense that isn’t expected to be great, or even good. A week one match-up with the Falcons will be a solid measuring stick to see just how large of a market share Sanders will have in this backfield moving forward.

Raheem Mostert, MIA | DK: $5.4k, FD: $5.9k | @ LAC

With Jeff Wilson Jr. (knee) landing on the IR, Mostert’s only real competition for touches is rookie speedster Devon Achane and perennial backup Salvon Ahmed. Mostert has shown the ability to put up great fantasy numbers when he operates as the featured back, and that should be the case to begin the season. The Chargers allowed an NFL-worst 5.4 YPC in 2022 and the 2,164 rushing yards allowed to opposing RBs trailed only the Houston Texans.

Wide Receivers to Consider

Potential wide receiver targets at high/mid/low price points.

Tyreek Hill, MIA | DK: $8.2k, FD: $8.8k | @ LAC

Unfortunately, we never really know how many healthy games we’re going to get out of Tua Tagovailoa so week one is as good of a time as any to go to the freakishly talented Tyreek Hill. Tyreek broke slates open on a routine basis in 2022, where he finished 3rd in the NFL in target share (32.1%) and 1st overall in air yards (2,263). No real match-up concerns against a decent-not-great Chargers secondary in a game that should trend toward a high-scoring affair.

DK Metcalf, SEA | DK: $7k, FD: $7.7k | vs. LAR

Until proven otherwise, the Rams' secondary sets up as a unit we’ll want to look to attack this season. They ranked bottom 10 in FPPG allowed to WRs in 2022, and they’re now heading into this season without the services of Jalen Ramsay, Troy Hill, and David Long Jr. DK Metcalf is always a match-up nightmare, and I don’t see anyone in the Rams secondary that should keep him contained in this game. On top of a strong 26.8% target share in 2022, Metcalf boasted an elite 40.3% redzone target%.

Calvin Ridley, JAX | DK: $6.5k, FD: $7k | @ IND

The Colts will also have a bit of a ragtag group of cornerbacks that we’ll look to take advantage of with opposing receivers. After missing nearly two full seasons due to a gambling-related suspension, Ridley will look to impress in his newly donned Jaguars uniform. Jacksonville may have one of the best all-around air attacks in the NFL and Ridley will be fighting the likes of Christian Kirk, Zay Jones, and Evan Engram for targets -- all of whom have more established rapport with QB Trevor Lawrence. However, a strong argument could be made that Ridley is easily the most talented receiver on the Jags roster, and while it seems like forever since he’s played in an NFL game, he’s still in his prime at 28 years of age.

Chris Godwin, TB | DK: $5.9k, FD: $6.8k | @ MIN

There has been a lot of turnover within this Vikings secondary, and, as of now, they’re looking like a bottom-10 pass defense. Chris Godwin has shown that he doesn’t need top-tier quarterback play to put up strong fantasy scores, especially if we’re talking full PPR formats like on DraftKings. The Bucs are +5 point underdogs in this domed match-up, so the game plan may not take long to lean pass-heavy, which bodes well for a moderately-priced Chris Godwin.

Marvin Mims Jr., DEN | DK: $3k, FD: $4.7k | vs. LV

With Jerry Jeudy (hamstring) trending on the wrong side of “questionable” in week one and WR Tim Patrick (Achilles) set to miss the entire season, there will be ample opportunity for rookie receiver Marvin Mims Jr. If Jeudy does indeed sit, Mims will line up across from Courtland Sutton and likely play an every down role. He can play all over the field and possesses the type of speed that could make him a primary downfield threat. If you’re in need of salary savings, Mims looks like a go-to option this week.

Jayden Reed, GB | DK: $3k, FD: $5k | @ CHI

This is a fairly ugly match-up for fantasy purposes, but the Packers are thin on healthy bodies within their wide receiver room heading into week one. Christian Watson (hamstring) has already been ruled out while Romeo Doubs (hamstring) remains questionable. Even if Doubs plays, rookie Jayden Reed should see a strong target share and, at minimum, operate as the No. 2 receiving option.

Tight Ends to Consider

Tight end targets at high/mid/low price points.

Tyler Higbee, LAR | DK: $4.8k, FD: $5.3k | @ SEA

Cooper Kupp is out for week one, and possibly beyond. Many teams have a talented WR2 who can step up when the top guy goes down. I’m not sure if Van Jefferson, Ben Skowronek, or Tutu Atwell fit the bill in that regard. Matthew Stafford needs reliable targets to throw to and Higbee could realistically take on the majority of Kupp’s theoretical targets. When Kupp went down with an injury in week 10 of last season (and went on to miss the remainder of the season), Higbee posted a team-leading 21.5% target share. Beyond the increase in targets, Higbee takes on a Seahawks team that surrendered the second-most FPPG to TEs a season ago. Even with an improved Seattle defense, it’s still a strong match-up for the Rams tight end.

Juwan Johnson, NO | DK: $3.9k, FD: $5.1k | vs. TEN

The Titans were another popular defense we attacked with tight ends last season and we’ll go back to the well with Juwan Johnson right out of the gates. No team allowed more receiving yards to TEs than the Titans in 2022 (1,130 yards) and they finished with the 4th most FPPG allowed to the position. Johnson, who is one of the more athletic TEs in the NFL, hauled in a team-leading seven touchdowns last season. There’s been plenty of positive buzz in training camp about Johnson’s chemistry with new Saints QB Derek Carr and it wouldn’t be a shock if he’s second or third in the receiving pecking order, behind young star WR Chris Olave.

Luke Musgrave, GB | DK: $2.9k, FD: $4.5k | @ CHI

The Packers spent a premium draft pick on Musgrave in this year’s draft, taking him with the 42nd overall pick in round two. Musgrave has already cemented himself as the Packers’ top receiving tight end and has shown rapport with QB Jordan Love. Depending on rookie tight ends is always a gamble, but if we’re throwing a flier out there, Musgrave makes sense as a cheap DFS option, especially due to how banged up the Packers’ wide receivers are.

Defenses to Consider

D/ST is a very volatile “position” and shouldn’t take up too much time in your DFS research. However, here are some D/STs I’m on board with this week.

Pay-Up D/ST: Baltimore Ravens | DK: $4k, FD: $5k | vs. HOU

DraftKings Value: Washington Commanders | DK: $2.8k, FD: $4.9k | vs. ARI

FanDuel Value: Denver Broncos | DK: $3.6k, FD: $4k | vs. LV

Stacks & Bring Backs 🥞

Below are a few team/game stack ideas to consider for this slate. In some examples, I will include a “bring back” option which will feature a normal "QB + Receiver" stack along with a player from the opposing team in the same game that could also benefit should the primary "QB + Receiver" stack go off.

QB + WR/TE + Opp Receiver (Game Stack)

Justin Herbert, Keenan Allen, Tyreek Hill

QB + WR/TE + Opp Receiver (Game Stack)

Geno Smith, DK Metcalf, Tyler Higbee

QB + Two Pass Catchers (Double Stack)

Trevor Lawrence, Calvin Ridley, Christian Kirk

QB + Two Pass Catchers (Double Stack)

Jalen Hurts, AJ Brown, DeVonta Smith

Full Team Stack - QB/WR/RB

Tua Tagovailoa, Tyreek Hill, Raheem Mostert

Value Team Stack

Jordan Love, Aaron Jones, Jayden Reed

“Ugly Duckling Game Stack” | QB + WR/TE + Opp WR

Derek Carr, Juwan Johnson, DeAndre Hopkins

Touchdown Call 🏈

Austin Ekeler, LAC | DK: $8.4k, FD: $9k | vs. MIA

Reminder: Follow @LineStarApp on Twitter and retweet the weekly Touchdown Calls tweet! Three retweeters are randomly selected and assigned a player from the TD calls between myself, @FlatTyler83, and @ShannonOnSports. If your player scores a touchdown, you’ll win your choice of cash (via PayPal) or a one-month subscription to LineStar!

PrizePicks Sunday NFL Power Play ⚡

This is a two-pick NFL "Power Play" I have over on PrizePicks. Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but these props did stand out so I'll be rolling it out with confidence! If it hits, it will return a 3x payout!

Juwan Johnson MORE than 28.5 Receiving Yards

Miles Sanders MORE than 55.5 Rush Yards

🆕 Props AI 🆕

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Once again, if you have any questions DM me on Twitter or hit me up in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck this week!