It's time to get the 2022 NFL season underway and we'll start with Sunday's 13-game main slate!

By: @Ryan_Humphries

Whether you’re a complete football junkie or a casual fan who likes to dabble in DFS here and there, we can all agree that this time of the year represents true bliss. From this point forward, we have real, meaningful football being played several days out of every week all the way through into February!

If you’re a new LineStar subscriber who is getting these NFL newsletters for the first time, the weekly focus for this particular article will be directed at the week’s NFL main slate. Between the PreSnap Podcast, the main slate articles, and primetime previews (for single-game ‘showdown’ slates), we’ve got ya covered across the board. Of course, these are all just resources to help aid your own personal research each week and shouldn’t be what you solely rely on!

Now, getting down to why we’re all here, the opening week one main slate is loaded up with 13 games. I usually advise folks to go a bit lighter on their bankroll than normal, at least until we’re at least three or four weeks into the season. That is when we begin to get a concrete idea of what each team’s identity is starting to look like in 2022. Roster shakeups, free agent/trade acquisitions, coaching staff turnover, off-season injuries, and rookie draft selections are all going to make many teams look much different than they did a season ago. But I won’t waste too much more time here, let’s get into this thing! Best of luck this season, my friends!

Note: These main slate previews will typically come out on Thursdays moving forward!

Main slate match-ups with implied point totals and spreads:

Weather Report

As a reminder, weather plays less of a factor in football than it does in other sports but it is still worth making note of any games that could see wet conditions, high winds, or (when we get into the winter months) frigid, snowy conditions.

The forecasts can always change so, as always, run a final weather check closer to kickoff.

CLE @ CAR (1:00 ET, 42 O/U): Roughly 20% rain coverage in the forecast here.

PIT @ CIN (1:00 ET, 44.5 O/U): Chance for rain which increases later into the game.

SF @ CHI (1:00 ET, 40.5 O/U): Notable chance of a downpour in Chicago. It’s no guarantee, but this could end up being a sloppy weather game.

JAX @ WAS (1:00 ET, 44 O/U): Scattered rainstorms in the area.

NYG @ TEN (4:25 ET, 44 O/U): Rain coverage isn’t impressive but there is a decent enough chance for rain at some point.

Quarterbacks to Consider

Potential quarterback targets at high/mid/low price points.

Justin Herbert, LAC | DK: $7.6k, FD: $8.4k | vs. LV

This game represents a perfect recipe for a shootout in the making. First, this is a domed stadium match-up and there is firm historical data that shows roughly 10% more points are scored, on average, in domed match-ups. That may not seem like a significant edge but it is an edge nonetheless. Second, we have two teams clashing with potent offenses and both the Raiders and Chargers ranked top five in pass play percentage last season. More passes = less time chewed off the clock = more plays = more offensive potential. Finally, the Chargers ranked atop the league in pace of play in 2021 and they should continue their uptempo play style this season. Justin Herbert is coming off of a 5,000-yard passing season where he averaged 294.9 YPG and 39.5 att/gm. He isn’t a major dual-threat QB but he does also provide the potential to add value with his legs. He provides a nice ceiling potential in week one.

Jalen Hurts, PHI | DK: $6.8k, FD: $8k | @ DET

Next up, we’ll look to Jalen Hurts as a mid-range option. Hurts got a major boost to his receiving corps with the addition of AJ Brown in the off-season. Meanwhile, second-year WR DeVonta Smith will look to take the next step up in his game as many sophomore receivers often do. Hurts also has a big, reliable target in tight end Dallas Goedert. Outside of his stable of solid receiving weapons, Hurts provides rushing upside as well after averaging 52.3 YPG on the ground last year. The Lions also ranked 29th in pass DVOA in 2021 and they project to have a bottom-five secondary this year. This is another domed match-up that could turn into a somewhat sneaky shootout and I’ll elect to side with Hurts and the Eagles offense here.

Jameis Winston, NO | DK: $5.3k, FD: $6.7k | @ ATL

Winston doesn’t always deliver and he has a history of making a ton of boneheaded plays but he does offer legitimate 300+ yard passing upside and can add a bit of value with his running ability as well. The Falcons have a solid piece in their secondary in AJ Terrell but an aging Casey Hayward mans the other side as the oldest active CB in the league. They’re inexperienced at safety as well and, overall, the Falcons project as a bottom-10 secondary. And, what do ya know? This is another match-up being played in a domed stadium. The 43-point total isn’t impressive but the Saints do own a solid 24.3 implied total. As far as weapons go, Winston should have Michael Thomas (currently listed as questionable) at his disposal, along with a polished rookie in Chris Olave, the ever-reliable Jarvis Landry, and one of the best receiving running backs in football with Alvin Kamara. All-in-all, if you’re looking to spend down at QB, then Winston is a completely viable option.

Running Backs to Consider

Potential running back targets at high/mid/low price points.

Jonathan Taylor, IND | DK: $9.1k, FD: $10.2k | @ HOU

There is nothing sneaky about rolling out JT in week one but there is usually enough value on the board early on in the season to make it easier to jam him into lineups. He’s one of the few true bellcow backs in the league and he’s coming off of a mammoth 1,811-yard season with 18 TDs. He easily led the NFL with 26 carries inside the five-yard line as well. Houston ranked dead last in rush DVOA last season and they’re not expected to be a stout run-stopping unit this year either.

Christian McCaffrey, CAR | DK: $8.5k, FD: $9.5k | vs. CLE

We know that when CMC is healthy, he’s the most valuable asset in fantasy football and he’s usually a guy that should cost $10k+ in DFS basically every week. So, it makes sense to get him while his salaries are this “cheap.” This isn’t necessarily the best match-up a running back could hope for but the Browns aren’t exactly stout up front and McCaffrey can put up plenty of receiving stats to go along with whatever he does on the ground.

Najee Harris, PIT | DK: $6.4k, FD: $8.2k | @ CIN

As a rookie, Najee Harris led all NFL RBs by a wide margin with an 83.5% snap% -- the next closest was Jonathan Taylor at a 68.9% snap%. The main takeaway is that he is rarely coming off of the field. The Bengals are expected to be a middle-of-the-road run defense, much like they were last year when they allowed the 11th most FPPG to opposing RBs. The Steelers do have O-Line concerns and they are +6.5 point underdogs, but Harris proved to be a heavily-utilized pass catcher out of the backfield in 2021, leading all RBs with 74 receptions on the season. The offense will likely be less “dink and dunk-y” now that Ben Roethlisberger is no longer at QB for the Steelers, but Harris should remain one of the league’s few true three-down backs.

Saquon Barkley, NYG | DK: $6.1k, FD: $6.8k | @ TEN

As good as the Titans defense was up front last season (fewest FPPG allowed to RBs) they still gave up a decent amount of receiving yardage to RBs and that is one area of the game where Barkley can excel. He’s looking as healthy as he has since his ACL tear in 2020 and he should dominate this Giants backfield in touches while maybe ceding only a few snaps to backup Matt Breida. The big draw here is the $6k DFS price tags. He’ll be a bit of a boom-or-bust option but someone to keep in mind for GPPs.

Dameon Pierce, HOU | DK: $4.8k, FD: $5.4k | vs. IND

There was plenty of preseason hype that developed around Pierce and, after watching his run-style, well-timed cuts, ability to fight for extra yardage, and his willingness to stand in and pick up blitzes as a pass-blocker, I’m buying into the hype. Not that anyone cares, but I made it a point to grab him in all four of my season-long leagues. At the end of the day, he is playing on a bad offense and he begins his NFL career facing a Colts defense that gave up the fifth-fewest FPPG to RBs in 2021. Indy is set to be a top run-stopping defense again this season. But Pierce did win over the coaching staff in the preseason and that is really the first major hurdle that any rookie RB needs to jump over. He should get plenty of opportunities to show off his skillset in a meaningful NFL game and, at these prices, Pierce is worth a flier in GPPs.

Mike Davis, BAL | DK: $4.4k, FD: $5.6k | @ NYJ

Temper expectations here but if JK Dobbins (knee) sits out or ends up being limited in this game, then Mike Davis could have a shot at a featured role on a run-first offense against an unspectacular Jets run defense. No one is going to be jumping at the bit to put Mike Davis into their lineups and the recent Kenyan Drake signing does throw a wrench into things. But Davis could theoretically pile up decent yardage and fall into the endzone a time or two in this game. GPP flier only.

Wide Receivers to Consider

Potential wide receiver targets at high/mid/low price points.

Justin Jefferson, MIN | DK: $7.8k, FD: $8.1k | vs. GB

Many are calling for Jefferson to take over as the top wideout in the league and it’s hard to build a case against it. He’s both a big play threat and a safety blanket option for QB Kirk Cousins and Jefferson averaged 102.3 YPG at home last season. Jefferson also led the NFL with a 45.8% AirYard%, meaning that he commanded nearly half of the Vikings' entire targeted air yards in 2021. In what could be a close game with Aaron Rodgers and the Packers, Jefferson should be in line for another huge game on Sunday.

AJ Brown, PHI | DK: $6.4k, FD: $7.1k | @ DET

Brown is a new addition to the Eagles offense but the personal relationship he and QB Jalen Hurts has dates back several years. We’ll look for the Hurts-to-Brown on-field connection to start off strong in week one. Some may not consider AJ Brown to rank among the very top NFL receivers but he has all the qualities you could ask for in a superstar WR. He ranked second in the NFL, just behind Justin Jefferson, with his 45.2% AirYard% with the Titans last season and he’ll draw a quality match-up against a potentially porous Lions secondary.

Marquise Brown, ARI | DK: $6.2k, FD: $6.9k | vs. KC

With DeAndre Hopkins serving his six-game suspension and Rondale Moore ruled out with a hamstring injury, there aren’t many proven receivers on the Cardinals roster left to challenge Marquise Browns for high-value targets. The Cardinals will be tasked with keeping pace alongside the high-flying Chiefs offense so expect Kyler Murray to look in Brown’s direction early and often.

Michael Pittman Jr., IND | DK: $5.5k, FD: $7.2k | @ HOU

He’s priced appropriately on FanDuel and remains firmly in play there, but DraftKings is just begging us to bite on Pittman at this $5,500 salary. He’s the unquestioned top target on an offense that got a marginal QB upgrade in the off-season, going from Carson Wentz to Matt Ryan. And Pittman should receive plenty of opportunities against a Texans defense that ranked 30th in pass DVOA and gave up the sixth-most yardage to WRs in 2021.

JuJu Smith-Schuster, KC | DK: $5.2k, FD: $6.4k | @ ARI

There is plenty of value at WR in the mid-range and JuJu stands out as a notable man to target. Reports out of Chiefs training camp have been extremely positive surrounding the connection between Patrick Mahomes and his new slot man, Smith-Schuster. This game boasts the highest total of the slate and the Cardinals had plenty of struggles against the slot in 2021.

Kadarius Toney, NYG | DK: $4.1k, FD: $5.3k | @ TEN

Before some injury setbacks, we saw glimpses of Toney’s electric play-making ability during his 2021 rookie season. He should take on a more consistent role this year and he’ll be set up nicely in week one against a Titans secondary that allowed the second-most FPPG to opposing WRs last season. For another flier on this offense, consider Wan’Dale Robinson (DK: $3k, FD: $4.7k) who should see plenty of snaps out of the slot for New York.

Romeo Doubs, GB | DK: $3k, FD: $5k | @ MIN

Doubs made some splashes in the Packers preseason but wasn’t necessarily expected to begin the year as a starting receiver. That may not be the case anymore now that Allen Lazard (ankle) is listed as doubtful for Sunday’s season opener against the Vikings. Doubs has a big opportunity to spark some chemistry with Aaron Rodgers. If a receiver gains the trust of Aaron Rodgers, they’re putting themselves in a great position to receive plenty of highly accurate targets. It’s a bit risky, but it is hard to argue against Doubs given his low DFS salaries and the potential opportunity he has in front of him this week.

Tight Ends to Consider

Tight end targets at high/mid/low price points.

Mark Andrews, BAL | DK: $6.8k, FD: $7.9k | @ NYJ

Paying up at tight end is always an interesting proposition in any given week. There are so few elite receiving tight ends and many choose to allocate salary towards premiere RBs and WRs. Early in the season, there is always nice value on the board which opens up the viability of going with a guy like Mark Andrews in lineups. With a thin wide receiver room and a banged-up backfield, Andrews is in a great spot to flourish against a Jets defense that always seems to struggle against elite tight ends.

Dallas Goedert, PHI | DK: $4.5k, FD: $5.7k | @ DET

Goedert averaged 10.9 yards per target last season, which leads all tight ends on the slate. He also brought in an impressive 73.7% of his targets. He’ll be a standout mid-range tight end option who draws a quality match-up against a Lions defense that allowed the ninth-most FPPG to TEs last season.

Cole Kmet, CHI | DK: $3.7k, FD: $5k | vs SF

Kmet is a popular breakout candidate at tight end this season, though much of his potential will hinge on improved QB play from Justin Fields. However, Kmet did lead all NFL tight ends in 2021 with an 83.3% offensive snap%. The 49ers were stout against the TE position last season but if the targets are there, then Kmet might emerge as one of the better value TE plays.

Defenses to Consider

D/ST is a very volatile “position” and shouldn’t take up too much time in your DFS research. However, here are some D/STs I’m on board with this week.

Overall: Baltimore Ravens | DK: $4k, FD: $4.8k | @ NYJ

DraftKings Preferred: Washington Commanders | DK: $2.5k, FD: $3.7k | vs. JAX

FanDuel Preferred: Cleveland Browns | DK: $3.8k, FD: $4.3k | @ CAR

Stacks & Bring Backs 🥞

Below are a few team/game stack ideas to consider for this slate. In some examples, I will include a “bring back” option which will feature a normal "QB + Receiver" stack along with a player from the opposing team in the same game that could also benefit if the "QB + Receiver" stack goes off.

QB + WR + Opp Receiver

Patrick Mahomes, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Marquise Brown

QB + WR + Opp Receiver

Justin Herbert, Mike Williams, Davante Adams

QB + Two Pass Catchers (aka “Double Stack”)

Jalen Hurts, AJ Brown, Dallas Goedert

RB + D/ST

Jonathan Taylor, Colts DST

Full Team Stack - QB/WR/RB

Joe Burrow, Joe Mixon, Ja’Marr Chase

Value Team Stack

Jameis Winston, Chris Olave, Alvin Kamara

“Ugly Duckling Stack” | QB + WR + Opp RB

Matt Ryan, Michael Pittman Jr., Dameon Pierce

Touchdown Call 🏈

Marquise Brown, ARI | DK: $6.2k, FD: $6.9k | vs. KC

Once again, if you have any questions DM me on Twitter or hit me up in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck this week!

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