Top NFL DFS Plays Week #1 (Main Slate) | 🚨 ALL SYSTEMS GO! 🚨

September 09, 2021

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If you’re like me, this week is like Christmas, my birthday, Thanksgiving, and every other holiday all rolled into one. From this point forward, we have football several days out of every week all the way through into February!

If you’re a new LineStar subscriber who is getting these NFL newsletters for the first time, the weekly focus for this particular article is directed at the week’s NFL main slate. If you missed any other LineStar NFL content, you can find links to everything in the header above. Between the PreSnap Podcast, strategy guides, and primetime previews (for single-game ‘showdown’ slates), we’ve got ya covered across the board. Of course, these are all just resources to help aide your own personal research each week and shouldn’t be what you solely rely on!

Now, getting down to brass tacks, the opening week one main slate is loaded up with 13 games. I usually advise folks to go a bit lighter on your bankroll than normal until we’re at least three or four weeks into the season and start to actually get an idea of what each team’s identity is starting to look like in 2021. I fully back that once again this season, especially since we’re going in somewhat blindly and only saw a slight preview of many teams in the preseason. Roster shakeups, free agent/trade acquisitions, coaching staff turnover, off-season injuries, and rookie draft selections are all going to make many teams look much differently than they did a season ago. On top of that, we still have to be mindful of the fact that we remain in the middle of a pandemic and NFL health and safety guidelines are going to hold teams highly accountable. But I won’t waste too much more time here, let’s get into this thing! Best of luck this season, my friends!

Week one main slate match-ups with implied point totals and spreads:

Games to Target

Obvious Game Stack

Arizona Cardinals @ Tennessee Titans (-3) | 52 O/U

Implied Team Totals | ARI: 24.5, TEN: 27.5

Notable DFS Relevant Injuries: WR AJ Brown (knee) - Questionable

The only thing that could make this game more appealing is if it were in Arizona’s domed stadium. As I hit on in the NFL Primer & Strategy Guide (linked above in the header), domed match-ups have historically produced around 9-10% more total points which, of course, entails further offensive success. NFL teams playing at home are also usually spotted around three points by the bookies, so odds are this would be close to, if not an outright, pick ‘em if this game was in Phoenix. Otherwise, this game has everything we’re looking for DFS purposes. The second-highest totals on the slate, dynamic offenses with a slew of fantasy-relevant players, and both teams ranked inside the top 5 in terms of offensive pace a season ago. A back-and-forth offensive shootout could easily develop in this match-up.

Score Prediction: ARI - 30, TEN - 34 (assuming AJ Brown plays)

Contrarian Game Stack

Jacksonville Jaguars (-3) @ Houston Texans | 45.5 O/U

Implied Team Totals | JAX: 24.3, HOU: 21.3

Notable DFS Relevant Injuries: RB Travis Etienne (foot) - Out/IR, QB Deshaun Watson (Non-Football Related) - Likely Inactive

The two storylines that will dominate this game: Trevor Lawrence making his NFL regular-season debut & Deshaun Watson’s likelihood of being a healthy scratch as he continues to be implicated in 22 active civil lawsuits. But beyond the headlines, some DFS goodness could be had in this game. While neither offense is expected to be great (or even good) this year, both defenses arguably rank among the bottom five worst units in the NFL as well. Most players in this game won’t be eating up much salary and there’s potential for five-to-seven offensive touchdowns to be had here. The offensive potential also gets a slight boost from this game being played inside a dome. With the Houston Texans organization in complete shambles, I wouldn’t exactly look for much of a crowd presence/ crowd noise to be a real factor when Trevor Lawrence and this Jags offense are on the field.

Score Prediction: JAX - 28, HOU - 23

Quarterbacks to Consider

Potential quarterback targets at high/mid/low price points.

Josh Allen, BUF | DK: $7.4k, FD: $8.1k | vs. PIT

Starting this season’s first QB recommendation off with a big time leverage play! Allen is getting no love from the DFS world and it’s entirely due to the match-up. However, the expectation is that the Pittsburgh secondary takes a step back in 2021 following the offseason losses of Mike Hilton and Steven Nelson. They could still end up having a top 10 secondary when it’s all said and done, and no doubt the defense as a whole should be considered top five. But on top of taking a massive step forward with his throwing mechanics over the last year-plus, the obvious appeal with Allen is the value he can provide with his legs. He has averaged 35.5 rushing YPG along with 25 rushing TDs in 44 games. While there are certainly “safer” QBs to spend up on this week, the Bills still possess a 27.5 implied team total, which is tied for the 2nd highest on the slate, and Allen should check in at <10% ownership. He’s a prime GPP play, for certain.

Jalen Hurts, PHI | DK: $6.4k, FD: $7.6k | @ ATL

There is no shortage of question marks surrounding Hurts’ long term ability to be a successful QB at the NFL level… but one thing is certain; he could not ask for a better match-up in week one. The Falcons allowed THE most FPPG to opposing QBs last season and, despite some turnover in their secondary, they’re either expected to stay about the same or possibly be even worse. Hurts has only attempted 148 passes in the NFL, completing 77 of them (52% comp%) but he did rack up an impressive 13.8 yds/comp in those limited number of throws. Between rookie Heisman Trophy winner DeVonta Smith, second-year receiver Jalen Reagor, a capable WR3 in Quez Watkins, and two big tight ends in Dallas Goedert and Zach Ertz to throw to, Hurts has a decent arsenal of weapons at his disposal and will be protected by a strong O-Line. And, finally, the most obvious appeal with Hurts is his rushing capability. Not many QBs in the NFL can realistically run for 100+ yards this week, but Hurts has that potential. I like the floor, I like the ceiling, I like the price, and I love the match-up.

Sam Darnold, CAR | DK: $5k, FD: $6.5k | vs. NYJ

Between Christian McCaffrey out of the backfield and DJ Moore/Robby Anderson/Terrace Marshall Jr. at wide receiver, Darnold should have no excuse when it comes to receiving weapons made available to him. This group is leagues ahead of what he had with the Jets. And what do you know! He gets the #RevengeNarrative tag right out of the gates with the Jets coming down to Carolina. The Jets will not have a good defense this year and you simply need Darnold to not make any dumb mistakes for him to pay off these rock bottom salaries. If you’re loading up on high-end RBs/WRs (or Travis Kelce), then Darnold makes a ton of sense out of the value tier.

Running Backs to Consider

Potential running back targets at high/mid/low price points.

Christian McCaffrey, CAR | DK; $9.5k, FD: $10.4k | vs. NYJ

Aaaaand exactly no one is surprised to see this guy lead the way in the “Running Backs to Consider” section. Given how long NFL DFS week one salaries have been out, due to preseason breakouts and injuries pushing others up on depth charts, it is extremely easy to afford these high-dollar running backs. While the ownership is going to be through the roof on CMC, ya might as well take advantage of the fact that he can easily be rostered this week. In cash, ownership% means zilch to me. In tournaments, I get it… you don’t always want to load up your GPP lineups with chalk top to bottom. But it’s very easy to just pivot elsewhere. CMC is what we would call a “game flow independent running back” -- meaning, if the Panthers are ahead, it’s likely due to McCaffrey having a great day on the ground with potentially multiple rushing touchdowns; if the Panthers are behind, CMC is only going to see more work in the passing game. Aside from injury (please, no), the only way I could see CMC failing in this spot is if the Panthers get SO far ahead in this game, that McCaffrey sees limited work in the second half. They’re only four point favorites, so a blowout is not expected. Really not much else to hit on here. Play him!

Alvin Kamara, NO | DK: $8.6k, FD: $8.6k | vs. GB

Kamara is another high-end game flow independent running back that people should be targeting this week. With Drew Brees enjoying retirement, the opposing defenses are going to at least have to respect the downfield passing capability that Jameis Winston provides. Despite the fact that the Saints have a very limited number of weapons in the passing game, Kamara should see fewer loaded boxes this season. He’s a great candidate to see 20+ touches with plenty of work in the passing game. Kamara’s career splits with WR Michael Thomas sidelined are also extremely positive. Thomas will, of course, start the season on the PUP list.

James Robinson, JAX | DK: $6.4k, FD: $5.9k | vs. HOU

With the season-ending foot injury to Travis Etienne, Robinson should step right back into the three-down workhorse role that he had in 2020 which led to him being the overall RB7 in both PPR and HPPR scoring. His 60 targets last season ranked 11th among NFL RBs, and that includes a few pass-catching specialists like JD McKissic and Nyheim Hines ranking ahead of him. He should have a strong role in both the rushing and receiving game while facing a Texans defense that surrendered the most FPPG to opposing RBs in 2020.

Mike Davis, ATL | DK: $5.4k, FD: $6.2k | vs. PHI

Davis is one of the cheapest RB options this week who should be expected to see a 60-70% snap rate and draw work on all three downs. He will face an Eagles front seven that has some veteran talent and will probably rank in the middle or top half of the pack in the NFL this year, but volume trumps all, and Davis should have a shot at 20+ touches in this game. The Falcons are also three-point home favorites, which is usually a good sign for RB production. Davis had several games last year where he proved to be a highly serviceable fill-in for the injured Christian McCaffrey, but now he will get his shot at being a team’s #1 option from the get-go for the first time in his career.

Trey Sermon, SF | DK: $4.5k, FD: $5.2k | @ DET

The 49ers are -7.5 point favorites in this game. By NFL standards, that is a massive line, especially as a road team. Trey Sermon and Raheem Mostert are expected to be the 1-2 punch out of this 49ers backfield. I really like both guys this week for DFS purposes but while Mostert (5’10”, 205 lbs) possesses the better speed and game-breaking ability, Sermon (6’, 215 lbs) has the bigger size and could be the preferred option on early downs and short yardage/goal line situations. With the Detroit Lions projected by many to have the worst defense in the NFL, if this game trends towards a blowout, it stands to reason that Sermon could garner some additional work in garbage time especially considering Mostert’s injury-riddled history.

Wide Receivers to Consider

Potential wide receiver targets at high/mid/low price points.

Calvin Ridley, ATL | DK: $7.9k, FD: $8.1k | vs. PHI

Ridley is poised for a monster year now that he is the defacto No. 1 with Julio Jones now donning a Titans uniform. Ridley averaged 11 targets/gm and nearly 20 FPPG in games without Julio last season and even with Julio playing in the majority of games, Ridley led the entire NFL (by a wide margin) with 1,918 targeted air yards. He’ll have rookie hybrid TE/WR/Superweapon Kyle Pitts around to soak up some targets that Julio is leaving behind, but by all means, Ridley should be the alpha receiving threat in Atlanta. The Eagles are expected to have a bottom 10 ranked secondary and they allowed the 4th most FPPG to perimeter receivers over the final eight weeks in 2020, which is where Ridley ran 88% of his routes. While you can’t really go wrong with the other top WR options like Davante Adams and Tyreek Hill, there are a few hundred dollars in salary savings to be had by dropping down to Ridley and you’re not losing much floor/upside potential either.

DK Metcalf, SEA | DK: $7.5k, FD: $7.7k | @ IND

Every NFL fan knows the absolute freak of nature that is DK Metcalf. He already showed off with some incredible ceiling games last season where he finished with 83 receptions (129 targets), 1,303 yards, and 10 TDs. Many believe he will be even better in 2021. He ranked 3rd in the NFL with 1,668 air yards and there really are no other major receiving threats in Seattle aside from him and Tyler Lockett. After a 24.5% Target Share in 2020, I would bet he pushes closer to a 30% Target Share this season and he, of course, has one of the most reliable QBs in the game throwing him the ball. The Colts as a whole have a solid defense, but their secondary is likely more towards the middle of the pack. It’s not as if there is any DB in the league who matches up well with Metcalf’s 6’4” 230 lb frame and absurd 4.33 speed.

Brandin Cooks, HOU | DK: $5.3k, FD: $6.3k | @ JAX

I’m moving past many strong receiving options that are priced between Metcalf and Cooks here, but the WR position is really where you can look to save some salary this week. No one in Houston should even come close to challenging Cooks this season in terms of total targets. Rookie Nico Collins could be thrust into a moderately high-volume role out of necessity, but aside from him, they have guys like Anthony Miller, Chris Conley, and TE Jordan Akins leftover as their other lackluster options. Cooks is coming off of a 119 target season where he finished with an 81/1,143//6 stat line and accounted for a third of the team’s total air yards. Tyrod Taylor is a serviceable enough QB who should be able to deliver Cooks catchable passes and Houston is very likely to play from behind, or at least not pull away, in this game (and most games for that matter). There is nothing scary about that Jags secondary either.

Corey Davis, NYJ | DK: $4.9k, FD: $5.8k | @ CAR

I could say many of the same things about Corey Davis as I did about Brandin Cooks. But, you get the gist here. Davis is pretty easily the top target in an offense that should be forced to pass quite a bit. He has looked great in the preseason and showed great chemistry with rookie QB Zach Wilson. The Panthers secondary has some nice individual pieces and also spent their No. 8 overall pick on CB Jaycee Horn. Regardless, Davis may very well see 10+ targets in this game, especially if Jets WR Jamison Crowder (C-19 list) is not cleared in time to suit up.

Tee Higgins, CIN | DK: $4.7k, FD: $6k | vs. MIN

Prior to his season-ending knee injury, Joe Burrow targeted Tee Higgins 71 times in their 10 games together last season which resulted in 43 receptions, 629 yards (14.6 YPR), and four TDs. The rookie-to-rookie connection was definitely looking like a promising one before Burrow got hurt. The Bengals sent off veteran WR AJ Green but spent the No. 5 overall pick on Burrow’s collegiate teammate, Ja’Marr Chase. Chase had a widely covered horrific preseason so it may take some time before he’s fully prepared to play on the majority of offensive snaps. I see no reason why Burrow and Higgins can’t pick up right where they left off in 2020.

Terrace Marshall Jr., CAR | DK; $3k, FD: $4.9k | vs. NYJ

Marshall will see a high volume of snaps from the get-go as the Panthers primary slot receiver. Sam Darnold was looking towards Marshall’s area of the field quite a bit during the limited amount of time we saw the first team Panthers offense play together in the preseason. It won’t be hard for Marshall to hit value here and I’d expect anywhere from five to eight-ish targets.

Rondale Moore, ARI | DK; $3k, FD: $4.9k | @ TEN

Moore is another ultra cheap rookie WR to consider this week, though his floor and offensive snap share are not quite as cemented as Marshall’s may be. However, the Cardinals do seem intent on getting the ball in his hands early and often. Moore is not a big guy at all (5’7”, 181 lbs) and injury history and durability issues at the NFL level could be a concern for his long term future. But if you didn’t watch this kid in college, do yourself a favor and look up some of his highlights from his time at Purdue. The guy is absolutely electric with the ball and has the potential to take any touch he receives to the house (see below).

Tight Ends to Consider

Tight end targets at high/mid/low price points.

Logan Thomas, WAS | DK: $4.6k, FD: $5.6k | vs. LAC

With all of the value out there in week one, you won’t have much issue paying up for fantasy’s No. 1 tight end, Travis Kelce ($8.3k/$8.5k). But there are several appealing “tier two” options that will clearly carry significantly lower salaries. The Washington Football Team puts Logan Thomas on the field nearly every play to do one thing: run routes and catch passes. On nearly every WFT passing play last season, Thomas was out there running a route, not blocking. He gets a significant upgrade at QB with Ryan Fitzpatrick who has historically favored throwing to tight ends and Fitz should show plenty of love for his 6’6” 250 lb target.

Kyle Pitts, ATL | DK: $4.4k, FD: $6k | vs. PHI

Pitts is a bit of an unknown quantity and we got a very limited preview of what he can do at the NFL level in the preseason. But he dominated in college and comes out with not only some of the best hands at his position, but some of the best hands of ANY receiving prospect in years. You don’t spend the No. 4 overall pick on a guy if you don’t intend to use him. And Pitts is not going to operate in the typical role of a tight end. He’ll be lined up out wide, in the slot, all over. He’s a physical freak and should be able to adjust to the speed of the NFL right away. Though, considering Pitts is 6’6” with an 83 3/8” wingspan who can run a 4.44 forty, perhaps it’s the NFL who will have to adjust to him.

Tyler Kroft, NYJ | DK: $2.5k, FD: $4.7k | @ CAR

DraftKings has a considerably lower salary floor at the TE position than FanDuel, so I usually throw one ultra cheap guy in here to consider mostly over on DK. After the much-maligned Chris Herndon was traded away to Minnesota, it left Kroft as really the only true tight end left on this roster. Expect him to push for a near 100% snap rate and see his fair share of targets. Literally, three or four catches would be all it takes for Kroft to pay off this $2,500 DK salary.

Defenses to Consider

D/ST is a very volatile “position” and shouldn’t take up too much time in your DFS research. However, here are two D/STs I’m on board with this week.

Safer but more expensive option:

San Francisco 49ers | DK: $4.2k, FD: $5k | @ DET

Pretty simple here. The Lions possess a slate-low 18.8 implied points and will be outmatched against a 49ers front seven that features a now healthy Nick Bosa. The 49ers are also the heaviest favorites on the slate (-9) which may force Detroit into a pass-happy approach -- that equals more opportunities for sacks/fumbles/interceptions/defensive TDs.

Riskier but more affordable option:

Buffalo Bills | DK: $2.5k, FD: $3.6k | vs. PIT

The Bills likely have a top 10 defense this year but are priced down quite a bit against Pittsburgh. The Steelers have great weapons at the skill positions and are led by veteran QB Ben Roethlisberger, but their O-Line projects rank among the worst in the league. Buffalo is also at home and should be playing in front of a rowdy Bills crowd who will bring some legitimate Super Bowl hype and aspirations into the 2021 season.

Touchdown Calls 🏈

Running Back

James Robinson, JAX | DK: $6.4k, FD: $5.9k | vs. HOU

Wide Receiver

DK Metcalf, SEA | DK: $7.5k, FD: $7.7k | @ IND

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