By: @Ryan_Humphries

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Aaaaand we are back in business for another 11-game NFL main slate! Somehow it is already week 10 so let’s take advantage of these big slates before they’re out of our lives for another long, treacherous eight months. We could see several lopsided victories go down on this slate as 6-of-11 games feature a team that is favored by more than a touchdown. Of course in many cases, blowouts aren’t necessarily a bad thing for DFS as long as you land on the right players who benefit from such a game flow. At the same time, if the last week in the NFL has taught us anything, it’s that any team can be beaten on any given Sunday no matter the discrepancy in talent (looking at you Bills, Cowboys and, most recently, Ravens). Let’s get into the action, shall we?

Main slate match-ups with implied point totals and spreads:

Games to Target 🎯

Obvious Game Stack

Minnesota Vikings at Los Angeles Chargers (-3) | 53 O/U

MIN: 25.0 implied points | LAC: 28.0 implied points

Score Prediction: MIN - 27, LAC - 33

Game Notes: Second highest total on the slate with a close spread. Those are the first couple of things that make this game stand out. Beyond that, Vikings games have averaged 54.3 combined PPG over the last month (4th most) while Chargers games have produced the 6th most combined snaps. Both teams operate at a fast pace as well: MIN - 6th, LAC - 3rd. The Vikings are dealing with some COVID issues as six players are currently on the C19 list (none who are vital for DFS purposes). Meanwhile, their defense is also depleted and they do have the off-the-field stuff going on with Dalvin Cook. However, they will get to run up against a Chargers defense which is among the worst run defenses in the league. On the other side, the Chargers should be able to take advantage of the Vikings lack of defensive depth available this Sunday and overall, we can expect a high-scoring fantasy-friendly game environment here.

Contrarian Game Stack

Buffalo Bills (-13) at New York Jets | 47.5 O/U

BUF: 30.3 implied points | NYJ: 17.3 implied points

Score Prediction: BUF - 31, NYJ: 20

Game Notes: Interest in the Bills offense may be at a season low following their head scratching 6-9 loss to the Jags this past Sunday. The Jets also rarely command much DFS consideration, and they’re facing an uphill battle against an elite Bills defense. However, after exiting the game with a wrist injury last Thursday, they are getting Mike White back at QB which should help the primary offensive weapons in this game. The Bills should be plenty of motivation to put on a bounce back performance following the embarrassing loss to one of the league’s worst teams. Both offenses in this game operate at a pace that ranks in the top half of the NFL: BUF - 13th, NYJ - 10th. Even in a potential blowout, a high volume of plays can be expected in this match-up, which is always what we’re looking for in these highlighted games. More plays = more opportunities for fantasy points. Simple as that!

Quarterbacks to Consider

Potential quarterback targets at high/mid/low price points.

Tom Brady, TB | DK: $7.6k, FD: $8.3k | @ WAS

Highlighting the GOAT as a spend up QB option is a fairly easy call to make this week. The Bucs are fresh off a bye week and Brady heads into Washington, who has allowed the most FPPG to opposing QBs this season. Brady has also passed for at least four touchdowns in three of the last four games to go along with 323.5 YPG on just under 40 att/gm. He won’t have Antonio Brown and Rob Gronkowski at his disposal but, when it comes to Brady, he’s usually going to be able to succeed regardless of which healthy receivers he has at his disposal. The cake match-up obviously helps alleviate some of that concern as well.

Aaron Rodgers, GB | DK: $7.1k, FD: $7.8k | vs. SEA

Agree or disagree with his off-the-field decisions and comments that have been all over the media recently, Rodgers should make for an intriguing low-owned GPP target this week. Of course, he still must clear COVID protocols before being eligible to play, which he can do by Saturday at the earliest. But, as of now, Rodgers is optimistic he’ll be able to suit up on Sunday and I’m sure after facing a ton of criticism over the last week-plus, he’ll be highly motivated to perform at a high level against Seattle. This will only be Rodgers’ 4th start at Lambeau Field this season but, thus far, he has averaged a healthy 25.2 FPPG in three previous home games this year while completing over 70% of his passes and posting a 9:0 TD:INT ratio. Green Bay’s receiving corps is also about as healthy as it has been all season as well and Seattle’s pass defense has struggled more when competing on the road.

Taylor Heinicke, WAS | DK: $5.4k, FD: $6.9k | vs. TB

There are not many enticing value options at the QB position on this slate but Heinicke may represent one of the better plays from the range. As pretty much everyone knows at this point, Tampa Bay is a funnel defense and they’re extremely difficult to run but not so tough to pass against. When the Bucs have gone on the road this season, QBs are averaging 24.3 DKFP/23.6 FDFP. As 10 point home underdogs, Heinicke is likely going to be faced with a pass-heavy workload and, when he scrambles, he has been adding some chunk yardage as well while averaging 6.4 yards per rush. The Washington running backs may not be able to do much on the ground, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see Heinicke rack up 30-40 yards on the ground himself. When he faced the Bucs in the Wild Card round of the playoffs last year, he threw for 306 yards and ran for an additional 46 with a TD through the air and on the ground. Anything close to that would be excellent value at these salaries.

Running Backs to Consider

Potential running back targets at high/mid/low price points.

Jonathan Taylor, IND | DK: $8.1k, FD: $9.4k | vs. JAX

The running back position is absolutely loaded on this slate and you’re going to see some pretty obvious names mentioned in this RB section as I’m not looking to get too cute with my picks here this week. The Colts are one of the hottest teams in the league have averaged 34.3 PPG over their last four and head into this game with a 28.8 implied team total (4th highest on the slate). Taylor has a strong O-Line in front of him which should dominate against the Jags D-Line, which ranks out as a bottom three DL in the NFL. Taylor is handling a true bellcow workload and should be in line for around 20 touches on Sunday in a positive game script as the Colts check in as 10 point home favorites.

Najee Harris, PIT | DK: $7.9k, FD: $9.4k | vs. DET

Najee checks in as another strong spend-up option at the position after handling 23.8 carries/gm over the Steelers last four games to go along with 3.5 receptions/gm. As a rookie, Harris leads all NFL RBs with an 85% snap% this season. Also, what’s not to love about the match-up? Detroit has been gouged by RBs all season and has allowed the 2nd most FPPG to the position. We can pretty safely project Harris for another 25-touch workload this week at Pittsburgh will take the field at home as 8.5 point favorites.

James Conner, ARI | DK: $6.3k, FD: $7k | vs. CAR

Conner has been in a fairly even backfield split with Chase Edmonds (the preferred receiving back) this season which has led to him having only a 46.3% snap%. Edmonds exited the game last week after only one play due to an ankle injury which resulted in Conner seeing an elite 77% snap%. With all that time on the field, he was fed 21 carries and caught 5-of-5 targets for 173 combined yards and three total TDs. Edmonds will not play in week 10 and even though Eno Benjamin will step in to eat up some of the snaps Edmonds leaves behind, Conner will be the primary ball carrier and likely sees a few targets as well. The five targets he saw last game equaled to amount of targets he saw in Arizona’s previous eight games this season! With Kyler Murray nursing an ankle injury, the likelihood that Arizona uses him as a runner diminishes as well, which also works in Conner’s favor.

JD McKissic, WAS | DK: $5.2k, FD: $5.4k | vs. TB

Tampa Bay has allowed only 54.5 rushing YPG to RBs this season… ya just can’t run on them effectively. As a result, teams will involve their RBs more in the passing game which has led to backs averaging 7.3 receptions/gm against the Bucs. McKissic is of course the receiving specialist out of this backfield and, considering Washington may find themselves down on the scoreboard early and often, I wouldn’t be surprised if McKissic plays upwards of 60% of snaps in this contest, especially considering Antonio Gibson is dealing with a lingering shin injury that won’t be going away any time soon.

D’Ernest Johnson, CLE | DK: $4.7k, FD: $5.4k | @ NE

Nick Chubb (C19) has already been ruled out and Kareem Hunt (calf) is still on the IR. Multiple other Browns RBs have been placed on the COVID list as well (John Kelly & Demetric Felton) which essentially leaves D’Ernest Johnson as the last man standing. The Browns will have other backs activated for this game but Johnson is clearly the guy who has the most trust from the staff. Even in a less-than-ideal match-up with the Pats on the road, Johnson likely handles 20+ touches which you don’t often find at these price points. Johnson will likely carry heavy ownership but if you’re searching for a value RB, he’s the most obvious option on the board.

Mark Ingram II, NO | DK: $4.5k, FD: $5.5k | @ TEN

As I was writing this article, Alvin Kamara was ruled out so I had to come back to this section to throw Mark Ingram into the mix. Ingram is, of course, familiar with this Sean Payton offense after playing here for the majority of his career and he has looked comfortable through his first two games with the Saints after being traded over from Houston a couple of weeks ago. In week nine against Atlanta, Ingram technically started the game and averaged 4.8 YPC on nine carries while being targeted five times despite playing only 34% of snaps. His snap share likely doubles this week and he may actually check in as a better value option than the aforementioned D’Ernest Johnson. It’s pretty much a toss up at the moment, in my opinion.

Wide Receivers to Consider

Potential wide receiver targets at high/mid/low price points.

Mike Evans, TB | DK: $6.9k, FD: $7.4k | @ WAS

No Antonio Brown. No Rob Gronkowski. And Chris Godwin is banged up with a foot injury and may not be 100% even if he plays. That could all translate for a big day for Evans against a Washington secondary that has allowed *the* most FPPG to perimeter WRs (Evans - 61% perimeter routes). With injuries, match-up, and the guy he has throwing to him all taken into consideration, Evans is going to be my touchdown call of the week! Bucs WR Tyler Johnson (DK: $3.3k, FD: $5.1k) should see the field plenty as well and sets up as a strong value option following a six target, five catch, 65 yard day in the Bucs last game in week eight when he played 64% of snaps.

DK Metcalf, SEA | DK: $6.8k, FD: $8k | @ GB

Much better potential value on DraftKings. After a three game absence, Russell Wilson (finger) returns to action this Sunday which is obviously a major boost to all Seattle receiving weapons. Metcalf has been producing solid fantasy scores in spite of having Geno Smith throwing him the ball so, with Wilson back, he now has the potential to post a ceiling performance. Metcalf has seen a stout 27.1% TGT% on the year to go along with an absurd 44.4% RedZone TGT%. With Aaron Rodgers also (likely) returning on the other side of the ball, Seattle will need to stay aggressive through the air and Metcalf is a solid bet to reach a season high in yardage and receptions while also having a strong shot at a TD or two.

Michael Pittman Jr. | DK: $6.3k, FD: $7.2k | vs. JAX

Pittman may not be as safe of a play as he seems to be on the surface simply due to a potential blowout scenario where the Colts get up big and just feed Jonathan Taylor the ball over and over. But he has certainly established himself as Indy’s alpha wide receiver and has hauled in five touchdown grabs in the last five games. If Jacksonville can keep this game relatively close, Pittman has a good shot at another 20+ FP outing. 

Cole Beasley, BUF | DK: $5.2k, FD: $6.1k | @ NYJ

He’s been averaging 11.0 targets/gm over Buffalo’s last three, we’re just waiting on some touchdown variance to fall in his favor as Beasley has only brought in one receiving score this season. The Jets defense is actually fairly strong on the outside, where they have allowed the 6th fewest FPPG to perimeter WRs. However, they’ve struggled in the slot (Beasley - 87% slot routes) where they’ve given up the 10th most FPPG to slot WRs. These are pretty fair DFS prices on a guy who could hit 3x-4x value quite easily based on volume alone.

Jarvis Landry, CLE | DK: $5.2k, FD: $6.1k | @ NE

Landry had been questionable for this game previously with a knee issue but will not carry an injury designation into Sunday’s game. Of course one of the largest pieces of actual football-related news recently has been surrounding the departure of Odell Beckham Jr., who now plays for the Rams. When you combine that with Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt both being out this week, that should result in Landry being extremely busy on Sunday. It’s always a little worrisome facing a Bill Belichick defense since he has been known to take away an opposing offenses top option. So, while I’m not sure I’d label Landry as a cash safe play, he could still be force fed 10+ targets in a game where Cleveland steps in as slight underdogs. The Patriots have allowed the 11th most FPPG to WRs over the last four weeks.

Marquez Valdes-Scantling, GB | DK: $3.5k, FD: $5.3k | vs. SEA

MVS is nothing more than a boom/bust GPP flier but, as long as Aaron Rodgers is back, he’s probably going to see two or three deep shots come his way and he’s always a threat to turn one of those into a long touchdown. But remember, he’s about as likely to score <5 FP as he is to score 20+ FP.

Tight Ends to Consider

Tight end targets at high/mid/low price points.

Kyle Pitts, ATL | DK: $5.8k, FD: $6.9k | @ DAL

I believe the most common lineup formula for people this week will be: spending up on a higher-end QB, rostering two stud RBs and one value RB, splurging on one pricey WR (to stack with their QB) to go along with two mid-range WRs, and punting at the TE position (or at least going fairly cheap). If that is how it plays out, I doubt many DFS players will go out of their way to roster Pitts, who checks in as the slate’s most expensive tight end. So, there’s GPP leverage to be had here. Besides a couple of big games in weeks five and seven, Pitts hasn’t exactly flourished in the Falcons offense. With Calvin Ridley not in the picture for the time being due to personal reasons, defenses are locking in on Pitts and focusing on shutting him down. But Pitts is also an extreme physical talent and will start to win in double coverage, especially if other Falcons receivers can step up to take some pressure away from him. If you want to roll the dice on Pitts, this may be a good time to do it as Atlanta (+9 point underdogs) likely plays from behind most of this game.

Pat Freiermuth, PIT | DK: $3.9k, FD: $5.1k | vs. DET

After posting his best fantasy game to date against the Bears (5/43/2), Freiermuth gets the benefit of not having his salaries adjusted due to playing on Monday Night Football after salaries for this slate were already released. Even though Eric Ebron is set to return from a hamstring injury that has sidelined him the last couple of games, Freiermuth has done enough to supplant Ebron as Pittsburgh’s TE1. Now, whether or not the Steelers see it that way as well is yet to be determined, but Freiermuth is certainly worth some consideration against a bad Detroit defense.

Dan Arnold, JAX | DK: $3.5k, FD: $5.1k | @ IND

Arnold has averaged 7.5 targets/gm over Jacksonville’s last four games. The only other tight ends on this slate to average more targets per game in their last four are TJ Hockenson (8.5 tgt/gm) and Kyle Pitts (7.8 tgt.gm). Arnold will check in at a major discount from those guys but will provide a similar floor thanks to the high volume of looks he’s been receiving. The Colts have also allowed the 4th most FPPG to TEs on the season.

Defenses to Consider

D/ST is a very volatile “position” and shouldn’t take up too much time in your DFS research. However, here are two D/STs I’m on board with this week.

Safer but more expensive option:

Arizona Cardinals | DK: $3.7k, FD: $4.8k | vs. CAR

There is enough value on this slate to pay up for a high-end DST option like the Bills, Steelers, Cardinals, Bucs, or Colts. I’m still a guy who leans towards punting at the DST ‘position’ more often than not, but the Cards are in a home match-up going up against a Panthers team that is starting PJ Walker this week. Walker has appeared in only seven career NFL games and has completed just 49.3% of his passes (5.6 YPA) with a 1:5 TD:INT ratio. Carolina acquired Cam Newton this week but he’s not expected to suit up for another week. The major feat Arizona will need to accomplish is slowing down a now healthy Christian McCaffrey. 

Riskier but more affordable option:

Tennessee Titans | DK: $2.6k, FD: $4.1k | vs. NO

So this isn’t the cheapest D/ST option to go with but certainly an affordable one. The Titans defense has played incredibly well in recent weeks, particularly in weeks seven and nine when they shut down both the Chiefs and Rams offenses. They’ve scored double digit fantasy points in four of their last five and get a home match-up against an Alvin Kamara-less Saints offense which will be led by a combination of Trevor Siemien and Taysom Hill at QB. 

Touchdown Call 🏈

Mike Evans, TB | DK: $6.9k, FD: $7.4k | @ WAS

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