Another loaded NFL Sunday rolls around and we'll preview a mix of DFS studs and value plays to consider for your week ten lineups!

By: @Ryan_Humphries

Week 10 NFL PreSnap Podcast 🎙️

Catch Tyler Wiemann and Shannon Sommerville's run down on this Sunday's NFL DFS main slate!

Also, for anyone looking to roll out some NFL props this week, be sure to check out the info and videos at the end of this article featuring usage of LineStar's new Prop Edge+ for NFL tool. This tool can help make prop bettors some extra cash -- especially on sites like PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!

A free two-pick PrizePicks "Power Play" is posted at the end of this article as well!

Week 10 DFS Main Slate Rundown 📝

Another 10-game NFL main slate is on the menu this Sunday! High fantasy scores look to be at a premium this week with six of these 10 games carrying a low total between 39 and 42.5 points. I’m sure at least one or two of those games will exceed offensive expectations, and we do have three games with totals between 48.5 and 51 implied points. But, in general, we may be looking at a lower-scoring slate so don’t throw in the towel if/when things get off to a slow-ish start tomorrow! 

Main slate match-ups with implied point totals and spreads:

Weather Report

As a reminder, weather plays less of a factor in football than it does in other sports but it is still worth making note of any games that could see wet conditions, high winds, or (when we get into the winter months) frigid, snowy conditions.

The forecasts can always change so, as always, run a final weather check closer to kickoff!

DET @ CHI (1.00 ET, 48.5 O/U): Brisk temps in the mid-30s with 10 mph winds. That’s some November football weather, baby!

JAX @ KC (1:00 ET, 51 O/U): Mid-30s temps. No big deal.

MIN @ BUF (1.00 ET, 42.5 O/U): Temps around 40 degrees, winds blowing around 10-15 mph, and there is a low-end chance for some snow. Might put a slight downgrade on this game due to the forecast.

NO @ PIT (1:00 ET, 39.5 O/U): Roughly 40 degrees with 10 mph winds.

HOU @ NYG (1:00 ET, 41 O/U): Low-end chance for rain to start the game.

DAL @ GB (4:25 ET, 44 O/U): Around 35 degrees with falling temps later in the game. Pretty standard for November in Green Bay.

Quarterbacks to Consider

Potential quarterback targets at high/mid/low price points.

Patrick Mahomes, KC | DK: $7.8k, FD: $8.5k | vs. JAX

Even if Josh Allen (elbow) suits up, he’s a tough guy to trust on this slate outside of contrarian GPP builds. So, if safety at the QB position is your top priority, Mahomes is going to be the man to roster as the Chiefs lead the slate with a 30.3 implied point total. The Jags are also a bit of a pass-funnel defense. They’re pretty decent against the run, ranking 14th in rush DVOA and allowing the 7th fewest rushing YPG. However, they rank 27th in pass DVOA, and they’ve gotten beat on deep passes on a routine basis this season. Mahomes isn’t going to throw it 68 times like he did last week but, considering how stagnant the Chiefs’ run game has been, we can expect another heavy dose of Patty Mahomes on Sunday.

Justin Fields, CHI | DK: $6.5k, FD: $8.3k | vs. DET

I’m kicking myself for highlighting Geno Smith as the cheap QB play last week instead of Justin Fields. It’s not like Geno had a bad game (21.8 FP) but he did not come close to the kind of day Fields had against Miami -- 123 yards passing, 3 TDs, 178 yards rushing, 1 TD, 45.72 DKFP/42.72 FDFP. The Bears and Fields have seemingly “figured it out” in recent weeks and he’s no longer flying under the radar as any sort of bargain. But he is essentially putting up RB1 numbers with the upside of some passing stats, and he draws one of the best match-ups a QB could hope for. Detroit is allowing the 2nd most rushing YPG to opposing QBs this season, and they’re surrendering a score on 44.6% of opposing offensive drives. On FanDuel, it will be much more tempting to find the extra $200 to get up to Mahomes, thus making Fields more of a pivot off of Mahomes in GPPs. On DraftKings, his $6,500 tag still leaves room for a strong floor, relative to his salary, and the ceiling is obviously sky-high as well.

Trevor Lawrence, JAX | DK: $5.4k, FD: $7k | @ KC

It may be worth looking at the passing game on both sides of this match-up. The Jags come into Kansas City as +9.5 underdogs; when Jacksonville has trailed by 7+ points this season, they have operated at the 3rd fastest pace in the NFL, so there should be high volume here. Chiefs opponents are also passing the ball on 71% of plays -- 3rd highest pass rate in the NFL. They’re also allowing a 101.0 passer rating to QBs this season -- 2nd highest in the NFL. We can look to this Jaguars' passing attack as a source of value on this slate.

Running Backs to Consider

Potential running back targets at high/mid/low price points.

Saquon Barkley, NYG | DK: $8.6k, FD: $9.5k | vs. HOU

“RBs against Houston” has been a flow chart play on a near-weekly basis. Houston allows the most FPPG to opposing RBs, by a decent margin, and in their last four games, they are allowing 6.5 YPC and 1.8 touchdowns per game to RBs. The Giants are fresh out of their bye week and they should be prepared to give Saquon 20-30 touches in this smash match-up.

Jonathan Taylor, IND | DK: $7.5k, FD: $7k | @ LV

The Colts are a bit of a dumpster fire at the moment, but it’s an interesting spot to utilize Jonathan Taylor in tournaments. This will be the first game with new Colts head coach Jeff Saturday running the show. And what would Saturday, a former All-Pro O-Lineman, probably look to do? Go pass-heavy with Sam Ehlinger, a sixth-round pick in 2021 who has been completely ineffective in both of his starts this season? Not likely. Establishing the run with a now-healthy (reportedly) stud RB like Jonathan Taylor would be the move. The Raiders have been cooked by opposing RBs recently, allowing 126 total yards and two TDs to Travis Etienne Jr. last week, and 158 total yards and three TDs to Alvin Kamara in week eight. Outside of a huge game against the terrible Texans run defense in week one, Jonathan Taylor has not looked at all like the 2021 version of himself this season. But if he is anywhere near 100% healthy, this may be a game where he carries the load and puts up some stellar stats. It’s hard to trust, but he’ll check in with very low ownership on this slate.

Alvin Kamara, NO | DK: $7.4k, FD: $8.6k | @ PIT

The Saints fell behind to the Ravens on Monday night and quickly abandoned Kamara and the run game. They’re only one-point favorites in this game against a bad Pittsburgh team, but it doesn’t seem likely that they’ll make the same mistake two games in a row. The Steelers are a fairly solid run defense, but before week nine where he saw just four targets, Kamara had at least nine targets in three straight games and at least six receptions in four straight. So, even if Kamara doesn’t light it up on the ground, this should be a bounce-back spot for him as a pass catcher.

Travis Etienne Jr., JAX | DK: $7.1k, FD: $8k | @ KC

In the two games that Etienne has worked in as the clear-cut featured back, he accumulated 30 touches last week (44.1% touch%, 2nd among Wk9 RBs) and 27 touches in week eight (41.5% touch%, 4th among Wk8 RBs) while playing around 80% of snaps. James Robinson being traded away to the Jets has been the obvious key that has unlocked this workhorse role for Etienne, and he’ll have an opportunity to continue posting some big numbers. Perhaps he won’t rush the ball 20+ times against Kansas City, assuming Jacksonville is forced into playing keep-up with the potent Chiefs offense. But he could have a major impact as a pass catcher. The Chiefs allow 7.9 receptions/gm to RBs, the most in the NFL. Etienne hasn’t been utilized much in the passing game, but that skill set is in his wheelhouse, and we should see it in action in this game. Also, let’s be honest, the Chiefs have had problems putting down teams they’re heavily favored against this season, so it’s not crazy to think that the Jags could hold a lead in this game, which would lead to more Etienne carries.

Dameon Pierce, HOU | DK: $6.3k, FD: $7.7k | @ NYG

Pierce is the lone bright spot on this Texans offense, and even in negative game scripts, he’s handling a heavy workload. Pierce’s 22.0 carries/gm over his last four games ranks second among RBs on this slate, behind only Derrick Henry (26.8 carries/gm). Despite being a rookie, Pierce has established himself as one of the hardest runners in the league. His average of 2.7 yards after contact is 5th among NFL RBs, and his 6.7 rush attempts per broken tackle lead the entire league. The Texans (+4.5) are not massive underdogs in this game, and Pierce will run up against a Giants defense that has allowed 5.8 YPC to RBs over their last four games.

Jeff Wilson Jr., MIA | DK: $5.5k, FD: $6.5k | vs. CLE

There aren’t many cheap RBs worth taking a flier on this week but Jeff Wilson Jr. does carry some appeal. In his Dolphins debut last week, he out-touched Raheem Mostert 12-to-11 despite playing on 33% of snaps, compared to Mostert’s 47% snap%. Until further notice, we can probably assume this will be a 50/50 backfield but it is a nice spot in one of the highest expected scoring games of the week (49.5 O/U) against a Browns defense that allows the 4th most FPPG to RBs.

Wide Receivers to Consider

Potential wide receiver targets at high/mid/low price points.

Tyreek Hill, MIA | DK: $9.1k, FD: $9k | vs. CLE

Tyreek’s 143-yard performance last week was his fifth-highest single-game yardage total of the season. I believe that tells you just about all you need to know about the season he is having. Hill’s 1,104 yards receiving is the most in NFL history through a player’s first nine games of a season and he’s now on pace for 2,085 yards, which would also break a single-season NFL record held by Calvin Johnson (1,964 yards in 2012). Tyreek won’t come cheap but his production has been so insane that he has paid off these sorts of lofty salaries even in weeks where he didn’t find the endzone.

Chris Olave, NO | DK: $6.8k, FD: $7.5k | @ PIT

The Steelers have surrendered the most FPPG to WRs this season and their secondary has taken a notable hit with the recent news that safety Minkah Fitzpatrick will miss several weeks while he recovers from appendectomy surgery. In his first NFL season, Olave has quickly cemented himself as the top receiving option in the Saints offense after commanding a 28.6% TGT% and 39.9% AirYard% over his last six games. New Orleans will continue to be without Michael Thomas (foot/IR), though they are expected to have Jarvis Landry back for the first time since week four. Landry’s return shouldn’t eat into Olave’s targets much, if at all, so we can still turn to him in this appealing match-up. We just have to hope that Andy Dalton can be competent, which is a rather big ask (FREE MY GUY JAMEIS!!!).

JuJu Smith-Schuster, KC | DK: $6k, FD: $7k | vs. JAX

JuJu has built up some strong rapport with Mahomes in recent weeks and it’s showing up in a big way in the box scores. In the Chiefs’ last three games, JuJu has caught 22-of-25 targets for 325 yards and two touchdowns. Travis Kelce remains the first look on most passing plays but it is clear that JuJu has been operating as a safety blanket for Mahomes recently and the Chiefs do a great job of lining him up all over the field and giving him high-percentage targets (7.2-yard aDOT, 88% catch% L3Gms).

Christian Kirk, JAX | DK: $5.9k, FD: $6.8k | @ KC

And back to this Chiefs vs. Jags game we go! The Jags didn’t bring Kirk in on a big 4-year, $72 million deal to *not* make him their primary wide receiver. He leads the team with a 23.7% TGT%, 29.3% redzone TGT%, and 28.7% AirYard%, and he has caught five of QB Trevor Lawrence’s 11 passing TDs. While the results aren’t always consistent, when Trevor Lawrence has at least a solid game, Kirk has correlated directly by having a good-to-great game. That seems obvious because, well, it is. But if you look at Lawrence’s fantasy point totals, his three worst games came in weeks four, five, and eight. Coincidentally, Kirk also had duds those weeks. But in the other six games, Kirk has scored between 11.8 and 25.8 DKFP, including five games of at least 17.1 DKFP. As we highlighted above, we’re looking to Lawrence to have a strong game this week so Kirk will be directly attached to that predicted success.

Darnell Mooney, CHI | DK: $5.5k, FD: $6.2k | vs. DET

I believe LineStar user “jpmolinari” has put it best in Mooney’s player comments: “Crazy that just three short weeks ago there was not a player from Chicago that I would remotely consider… now I'm running Chicago stacks.” The man (or woman) speaks the truth. While Fields still isn’t lighting it up through the air (L4Gms: 160.8 YPG, 15.3 completions/gm), Darnell Mooney is EASILY his favorite target. In these last four Bears games, Mooney has commanded a huge 32.3% TGT% with TE Cole Kmet coming in at a distant second with a 14.6% TGT%. And this is a perfect match-up against the Lions' secondary that allows the 4th most FPPG to WRs, including the 2nd most FPPG to slot WRs over the last eight weeks, which is where Mooney runs the majority of his routes.

Donovan Peoples-Jones, CLE | DK: $4.3k, FD: $5.7k | @ MIA

I’m seeing DPJ getting plenty of love from the WR value tier, particularly on DraftKings, and why shouldn’t he? He has scored at least 11.6 DKFP in four of his last five games which is about all you can hope for from a player in this salary range. In this recent five-game stretch, he is commanding a respectable 20.1% TGT% resulting in 4.6 receptions/gm and 69.4 YPG. He also has a 12.7-yard aDOT in those five games so his targets are coming fairly deep down the field. DPJ has yet to haul in a touchdown this season but, given his role as the No. 2 receiver, that scoreless streak may end sooner rather than later. Also, in bizarre fashion, Browns WR1 Amari Cooper has nearly disappeared in Cleveland’s three road games this season, averaging 4.7 TGT/gm, 2.3 receptions/gm, and 33.3 YPG. If Cooper continues to be a ghost down in Miami, DPJ stands to benefit in what is expected to be a high-scoring affair.

Mack Hollins, LV | DK: $4.2k, FD: $5.5k | vs. IND

WR Hunter Renfrow and TE Darren Waller were both placed on the IR this week. Davante Adams is the clear No. 1 in this offense but QB Derek Carr can’t throw it to him every time he drops back (though, he may try). Hollins should step into some decent volume by default and could see upwards of 8-10 targets, depending on the flow of this game with the Colts.

Christian Watson, GB | DK: $3.7k, FD: $5.4k | vs. DAL

I wanted to throw one last WR flier out there. Watson has had trouble staying on the field this year but the Packers receiving depth has thinned even further following the ankle injury to Romeo Doubs in week nine. Allen Lazard is the default WR1 but a good Cowboys defense may key in on him this week which could free up some downfield looks for Watson. Low-floor GPP play only.

Tight Ends to Consider

Tight end targets at high/mid/low price points.

Travis Kelce, KC | DK: $7.8k, FD: $8.5k | vs. JAX

Rostering Travis Kelce always means you’ll have to take more risks at other positions, but it typically leads to unique lineup builds which can be ideal for GPPs. You’re getting a strong floor and big touchdown upside basically every week out of Kelce, so I don’t necessarily hate him for cash games. However, I know most people, myself included, look at “Kelce lineups” and just don’t love how the rest of the lineup shakes out. But I always like to compare RBs or WRs who carry a similar DFS price tag to Kelce and figure out if I like him more than those guys. This week, some similarly priced guys are RB Josh Jacobs and WR Jaylen Waddle. It’s not crazy to think that Kelce will outscore both of those guys this week.

Greg Dulcich, DEN | DK: $3.4k, FD: $5.9k | @ TEN

Dulcich, a third-round pick in the 2022 NFL Draft, returned from injury and made his debut in week six. Since then, he has been a steady part of the Broncos’ offense. He’s averaging an impressive 15.2 YPR and he reached a season-high in snap share (80%) and yards (87) in the Broncos' last game in week eight. This is also a plus match-up against the Titans, who allow the 6th most FPPG and the 7th most YPG to opposing TEs.

Harrison Bryant, CLE | DK; $2.7k, FD: $4.8k | @ MIA

As usual, the last tight end mentioned in this section is usually geared towards being a DraftKings preferred play due to the much lower tight end salary floor. David Njoku (ankle) has been ruled out for a second consecutive game which bumps Bryant into the TE1 role. Bryant went without a single target in the week eight game against Cincy but, if you recall, the Browns jumped all over the Bengals in that game and pretty much controlled the game on the ground from start to finish. Bryant still played 74% of snaps in that game and he draws a much friendlier match-up against Miami who has given up the 3rd most FPPG to TEs this season.

Defenses to Consider

D/ST is a very volatile “position” and shouldn’t take up too much time in your DFS research. However, here are some D/STs I’m on board with this week.

Pay-Up D/ST: Dallas Cowboys | DK: $4k, FD: $5k | @ GB

Mid-Range D/ST: Tennessee Titans | DK: $3.2k, FD: $4.4k | vs. DEN

Value D/ST: Arizona Cardinals | DK: $2.7k, FD: $4k | @ LAR

Stacks & Bring Backs 🥞

Below are a few team/game stack ideas to consider for this slate. In some examples, I will include a “bring back” option which will feature a normal "QB + Receiver" stack along with a player from the opposing team in the same game that could also benefit should the primary "QB + Receiver" stack go off.

QB + WR/TE + Opp Receiver (Game Stack)

Patrick Mahomes, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Christian Kirk

QB + WR/TE + Opp Receiver (Game Stack)

Justin Fields, Darnell Mooney, Amon-Ra St. Brown

QB + Two Pass Catchers (Double Stack)

Tua Tagovailoa, Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle

QB + Two Pass Catchers (Double Stack)

Russell Wilson, Jerry Jeudy, Greg Dulcich

Full Team Stack - QB/WR/RB

Tua Tagovailoa, Tyreek Hill, Jeff Wilson Jr.

Value Team Stack

Trevor Lawrence, Christian Kirk, Travis Etienne Jr.

“Ugly Duckling Game Stack” | QB + WR + Opp RB

Daniel Jones, Wan’Dale Robinson, Dameon Pierce

Touchdown Call 🏈

Christian Kirk, JAX | DK: $5.9k, FD: $6.8k | @ KC

Reminder: Follow @LineStarApp on Twitter and retweet the weekly Touchdown Calls tweet! Three retweeters are randomly selected and assigned a player from the TD calls between myself, @FlatTyler83, and @ShannonOnSports. If your player scores a touchdown, you’ll win your choice of cash (via PayPal) or a one-month subscription to LineStar!

PrizePicks Sunday NFL Power Play ⚡

This is a two-pick NFL "Power Play" I have over on PrizePicks. Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but these props did stand out so I'll be rolling it out with confidence! If it hits, it will return a 3x payout!

Saquon Barkley MORE than 0.5 Rush TDs

Donovan Peoples-Jones MORE than 43.5 Receiving Yards

🆕 Props Edge+ 🆕

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Speaking of props, put the Props Edge+ tool to use by signing up for PrizePicks (Promo code: BETFULLY)or Underdog (Promo code: LINESTAR). 100% match on deposits up to $100 PLUS a free two-month subscription to LineStar Premium. Many people may not realize that you can legally place prop bets in most states using UnderDog (or PrizePicks) – it’s called Pick'Em, and it’s incredibly easy.

Once again, if you have any questions DM me on Twitter or hit me up in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck this week!

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