By: @Ryan_Humphries | LineStar Chat: @N1TRO

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We launch into week ten with an alluring 11-game main slate with plenty of evenly matched games on deck. Currently, five games carry a spread of 3.5 points or less and a dozen teams hold an implied team total of 24 points or higher. Hopefully, this doesn’t bring on a jinx, but as of Thursday afternoon there doesn’t seem to be any COVID-related headaches to worry about (aside from Ben Roethlisberger’s availability, but I’m thinking he plays). If we can make it to 1 pm ET on Sunday with that still being the case, that would be fantastic.

Forecasts can always change over the next few days but for now, there are a couple of games where weather may prove to have a notable impact. The Houston at Cleveland game is currently forecasted to see wet conditions with sustained winds around 25 mph with gusts up to 40 mph. Remember a couple of weeks ago when the Raiders played the Browns in Cleveland under similar conditions, it was just a sloppy game in general that ended with a total of 22 points scored. Our other trouble spot looks to be in the Jacksonville at Green Bay game -- very cold temps in the 30s, 50-65% chance of rain, and around 25 mph sustained winds with stronger gusts as well. If those forecasts hold, you can likely bump down the passing attacks. Both unders hitting in those games would not surprise me in the least, though the Vegas totals may fall by kickoff. Keep your eyes peeled on the Daily Dashboard and be on the lookout for any potential changes. 

Main slate match-ups with implied team totals and moneylines:

Games to Target

Buffalo Bills @ Arizona Cardinals (-2) | 56.5 O/U

BUF: 27.3 implied points | ARI: 29.3 implied points

BUF: 23rd in offensive tempo | ARI: 3rd in offensive tempo

Out of all the domed match-ups on this slate, this stands out as the one that you’ll want the most exposure to. These are two teams that rank inside the top 10 in offensive efficiency and combine for an average of 56.1 PPG. Unsurprisingly, the over/under in this game lands right around that figure at 56.5 and currently stands as the highest total on the slate. If you combine both team’s average PPG over their last three games, you’d get a lofty 64 points. While both defenses are decent, neither is incredible -- the Cardinals rank 10th in defensive DVOA, Buffalo 17th. For Buffalo, this will be a great pace up spot as well and we could easily see the Bills get caught up in another high-scoring affair for a second consecutive week. Several strong cash and GPP plays will be found on both sides of this one.

Denver Broncos @ Las Vegas Raiders (-4.5) | 51 O/U

DEN: 23.3 implied points | LV: 27.8 implied points

DEN: 5th in offensive tempo | LV: 25th in offensive tempo

The other more obvious game to load up on would be the Seahawks @ Rams (-1.5) which has a 55.5 O/U. This Broncos/Raiders match-up may land more under the radar but there is some strong appeal to be had here. The Raiders now play in a domed stadium out in Sin City and their three home games this season we’ve seen point totals of 58, 53, and 65 (an average of 58 PPG). The Raiders have been a tough team to figure out this year, but when they’re clicking on offense they can be a dangerous team. The Broncos have been pretty terrible in general but they have combined for 58 points in their last two games. You probably won’t find many cash-safe players in this game but it is loaded with low-owned GPP viable targets. Quite a bit of sneaky shootout potential here.

Quarterbacks to Consider

Potential quarterback targets at high/mid/low price points.

Justin Herbert | DK: $6.6k, FD: $8k | @ MIA | GPP Preferred

If you can find the salary relief elsewhere, I’d likely do all I could to get Kyler Murray into my cash lineup. But Herbert will be an appealing mid-range option and he honestly could be cash viable considering his floor this season has basically been about 20 fantasy points. He has yet to post a dud performance while averaging an impressive 306.6 passing YPG and he has thrown multiple touchdown passes in five straight. The match-up is not the easiest, as Miami ranks 8th in pass defense DVOA, but this could be a nice game environment in a game that should remain close and competitive for four quarters. Herbert’s sneaky rushing ability (23.7 YPG) is also a nice little bonus and will add to his upside.

Carson Wentz | DK: $5.9k, FD: $7.5k | @ NYG | GPP Preferred

The Eagles will still be without Zach Ertz and DeSean Jackson but, for the most part, Wentz will have close to his full complement of weapons at his disposal this week. Alshon Jeffery has been practicing in full and should make his season debut on Sunday. Also, while both came off of IR and played in Philadelphia’s last game back in week eight, Dallas Goedert and Jalen Reagor have had a bye week to get closer to 100%. Wentz posted his best fantasy performance of the 2020 season against this Giants team in week seven and his upside will be in the 30+ FP range. Unfortunately, I don’t think I would trust him enough in cash but I do believe we could see a ceiling game out of Wentz on Sunday.

Drew Lock | DK: $5.5k, FD: $7.1k | @ LV | Cash & GPP

If you take away Baker Mayfield’s performance against the Raiders, which was played in terrible weather, the previous four QBs to face Las Vegas have averaged 31.4 DKFP. On the season, QBs are averaging 28.2 DKFP versus a Raiders team that ranks 26th in pass defense efficiency. Drew Lock is anything but consistent so this is a pure match-up play, though he does have five passing touchdowns and a rushing score over Denver’s last two games. One thing to worry about: Lock’s top three weapons in the passing game (Jeudy, Patrick, Fant) are all listed as questionable this week. If at least two of those guys play, then I’ll continue to stand behind Lock as a viable play in all formats. If two or all three of those guys happen to get ruled out, Lock probably needs to be viewed as a GPP only play.

Running Backs to Consider

Potential running back targets at high/mid/low price points.

Aaron Jones | DK: $7.1k, FD: $8.8k | vs. JAX | Cash & GPP

Jacksonville has a defense that we usually look to attack through the air, but it isn’t like their run defense has been great either (21st in run defense DVOA). The (currently forecasted) high winds and rain also give the run game a boost in this game. After missing two games with a calf injury, Jones came back and looked healthy against the 49ers (15 carries, 58 yards, 5 catches, 21 yards) while playing on 61% of snaps. Considering how much of a blowout that game was, Jones probably didn’t even need to play that many snaps but if you remember, the Packers were dealing with multiple COVID-related absences in their backfield. But regardless, I believe we get a strong floor out of Jones this week and a multi-touchdown performance is well within reach.

James Robinson | DK: $6.6k, FD: $7.3k | @ NYG | GPP Preferred

On the other side of the field, I think we have to at least consider James Robinson in GPPs even though Jacksonville is a two-touchdown underdog. The Packers are just *that* bad against opposing running backs (2nd most FPPG allowed). Robinson’s 65.7% snap rate this season ranks 5th among all NFL running backs and he averages right at 20 touches per game. On top of his steady volume of carries, he has seen at least four targets in 6-of-8 games this season. Chris Thompson will get a few targets/catches but otherwise, there is really no talented back to challenge Robinson for touches so he’s one of the few NFL running backs who is truly “gamescript independent”. 

Leonard Fournette | DK: $5.5k, FD: $6.4k | @ CAR | GPP Preferred

After getting ab-so-lute-ly demolished in primetime by the Saints on Sunday night, does anyone else feel like the Bucs are heading into week ten with a massive chip on their shoulder? I wouldn’t be surprised if the Bucs try to score 40+ points here and Fournette seems to be the preferred option over RoJo, especially in the passing game. Meanwhile, the Panthers have allowed the 5th most FPPG to RBs this season and they gave up 116 total yards plus two touchdowns to Fournette back in week two. Solid leverage play in GPPs.

Antonio Gibson | DK: $5.6k, FD: $6.1k | @ DET | Cash & GPP

Gibson had just nine touches last week against the Giants, but that was in a game where the Football Team ran just nine rushing plays. Gibson did sustain a shoulder injury at some point during that game, so maybe that had something to do with the low volume, but he has been practicing in full as of Thursday so he should be good to go this week. The Lions have allowed *the* most FPPG to RBs and if Gibson manages to garner 15-20 touches I believe he should turn in a strong fantasy performance. On DraftKings, I believe you can also feel pretty good about JD McKissic as a solid floor PPR option McKissic saw an absurd 14 targets out of the backfield last week and is averaging nearly six targets/gm. With Alex Smith as the likely starting quarterback for the foreseeable future, these running backs are going to get peppered with plenty of check-down targets.

Mike Davis | DK: $4k, FD: $5.4k | vs. TB | Cash & GPP

See; Christian McCaffrey (shoulder) - Doubtful to play. Davis will be chalk city but I think you almost have to play him in cash. In tournaments, maybe not. Even at these basement level salaries, he could still put up a dud performance against the 3rd ranked Tampa Bay run defense. But his involvement in the passing game when CMC was out gave him a terrific floor most weeks and he caught 8-of-8 targets for 74 yards against Tampa Bay back in week two.

Wide Receivers to Consider

Potential wide receiver targets at high/mid/low price points.

Michael Thomas | DK: $7.4k, FD: $8.5k | vs. SF | GPP Preferred

In his first bit of action since week one, Thomas only plays 55% of snaps. That was also obviously against the Bucs in which the Saints dominated wire-to-wire. Even though New Orleans (currently nine point favorites) could find themselves another fairly easy win, I think we can take a chance on Thomas in GPPs at these depressed salaries. I mean, all you have to do is look back at his game logs from his record breaking 2019 season to remember how absolutely dominant and lucrative the Brees to Thomas connection can be. MT could legitimately be about 10% owned (or lower) in tournaments this Sunday. Major leverage play.

Keenan Allen | DK: $7.1k, FD: $7.8k | @ MIA | Cash & GPP

At this point, Keenan Allen could reasonably be priced as the second most expensive WR most weeks (behind Adams) and I don’t believe anyone would view that as a crazy proposition. If you look at the six games where Herbert has started and Allen played the entire game (weeks 2-4 & 7-9), Allen has a massive 34.5% target share while averaging 12.7 targets, 9.3 receptions, 97.5 yards, 0.5 TDs. The Dolphins give up the 11th most FPPG to WRs and Allen simply brings an awesome floor to the table week in and week out.

Robert Woods | DK: $6.6k, FD: $7.2k | vs. SEA | Cash & GPP

At this point, if we’re not attacking this Seahawks secondary then what are we even doing? Seattle allows the most FPPG to WRs and it just isn’t even close at all. Cooper Kupp (DK: $6.9k, FD: $7.7k) leads the Rams with a 25.3% target share, while Woods is second at 20.4%. Though, if you view Kupp’s week eight game as an outlier, where he saw an absurd 21 targets, you’ll realize that Kupp and Woods are basically “1a and 1b” type options. Both are well in play, but I’ll take the slight discount and give Woods the nod as my preferred DFS target (also Kupp is questionable with a wrist injury, though he is on track to play).

Tyler Boyd | DK: $6.4k, FD: $6.7k | @ PIT | GPP Preferred

If there is a weakness on this Steelers D, it has been against slot wide receivers. On the year, Pittsburgh has allowed the 6th most FPPG to the slot, which is where Boyd runs an overwhelming amount of his routes (85%). The Bengals are sizable 7.5 point underdogs so the game script likely favors the passing game once again. Boyd should see, at minimum, eight targets with potential for 10+.

Diontae Johnson | DK: $5.2k, FD: $5.7k | vs. CIN | GPP Preferred

Johnson has played all four quarters in four games this year. His targets in those games: 10 (Wk1), 13 (Wk2), 15 (Wk7), 10 (Wk9). He has easily stood out as the WR1 on this Steelers offense in those games in which he has been healthy. He holds a 29.3% target share in those games, followed by JuJu (21%), Eric Ebron (11.75%), and Chase Claypool (11%). The Bengals are not a horrible secondary but they have allowed the 11th most FPPG to perimeter receivers, which is where Johnson runs 82% of his routes.

Sterling Shepard | DK: $5k, FD: $5.5k | vs. PHI | Cash & GPP

To piggyback off of Diontae Johnson’s narrative of “good when healthy”, Shepard has played four complete games this season (weeks one, seven, eight, and nine) and has seen 6, 8, 10, and 8 targets respectively. Eagles top CB Darius Slay will likely shadow WR Darius Slayton, which is a situation that helped Shepard produce a 6/59/1 stat line against Philly in week seven.

Curtis Samuel | DK: $4.9k, FD: $5.7k | vs. TB | GPP Preferred

Tough match-up with the Bucs but Samuel has been Mr. Versatility lately as he’s been involved in both the running and passing game. He is getting fortunate with the touchdowns (four in last three games) which you can’t always count on, but with CMC back on the sideline this week expect the Panthers to find a way to get the ball in Samuel’s hands.

Jakeem Grant | DK: $3k, FD: $4.6k | vs.LAC | GPP Only

Pure punt play but the Dolphins will be without Preston Williams (foot, placed on IR). After Preston went down last week (after playing 28% of snaps), Jakeem Grant played 48% of snaps which was second among Dolphins WRs behind DeVante Parker (90%). He was targeted five times and caught four passes for 35 yards. He should be more involved in the offense until Williams can return and, hey, as the Dolphins kick/punt returner, there's always an outside chance he can score himself a special teams TD. Grant is maybe more of a play on DraftKings where full PPR scoring could help him return 3x-4x value.

Tight Ends to Consider

Tight end targets at high/mid/low price points.

TJ Hockenson | DK: $5.1k, FD: $6.2k | vs. WAS | Cash & GPP

If I have the salary available, I’d be tempted to just pay up for Darren Waller (DK: $5.9k, FD: $7k), but Hockenson is not a bad option either. He has shown off a strong floor all season (a rarity for tight ends) and over the last three games he has brought in at least five catches on 8.0 targets/gm. Washington also isn’t all that great at containing TEs (5th most FPPG allowed) and Kenny Golladay may be on track to miss a second consecutive game.

Dallas Goedert | DK: $4.2k, FD: $5.8k | @ NYG | GPP Preferred

As long as Ertz is on IR, Goedert is going to have a great potential ceiling considering how much Carson Wentz has historically loved throwing to his tight ends. Goedert’s floor has been basically non-existent this season but he has, of course, been banged up for most of the year up to this point. Coming out of a bye week and facing a soft opponent could be just what the doctor ordered.

Robert Tonyan | DK: $3.6k, FD: $5.7k | vs. JAX | GPP Preferred

Tonyan is better suited at his price on DraftKings. As mentioned at the start of this newsletter, the weather in Green Bay is probably going to be ugly and windy by the time Sunday rolls around. The downfield passing attack could be severely hampered, but that might actually turn out to be beneficial for Tonyan considering he normally gets targeted on shorter passes anyway (8.32 aDOT). Jacksonville is also terrible against the pass and they give up the 6th most FPPG to TEs. After disappointing in three of his last four games, this could be a good time to take a shot on Tonyan in some GPPs. His ownership will likely be in the single digits.

Defenses to Consider

D/ST is a very volatile “position” and shouldn’t take up too much time in your DFS research. However, here are two D/STs I’m on board with this week.

Safer but more expensive option:

New Orleans Saints | DK: $3k, FD: $4.5k | vs. SF

The 49ers will be healthier than they were last week but they’re still quite obviously decimated from a plethora injuries. The Saints just dismantled Tom Brady and the Bucs on Sunday night so I don’t think Nick Mullens & Company will pose much of a threat.

Riskier but more affordable option:

Houston Texans | DK: $2.4k, FD: $3.5k | @ CLE

The Texans defense is garbage (no offense Houston fans) but this is one of the games that is expected to see very windy and possibly wet weather. I don’t have high hopes for this play but maybe they can manage to get 6-8 fantasy points. I’d take that for these prices.

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