By: @Ryan_Humphries | LineStar Chat: @N1TRO

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It’s a bit hard to believe but the home stretch of the 2020 NFL regular season draws closer and closer. This week's eleven game main slate may not be the sexiest set of games, but for DFS purposes we still have plenty of angles to attack and match-ups to exploit. There are plenty of key injuries to several highly fantasy-relevant players so be sure you stay up to date on the latest news leading up to kickoff on Sunday. For the last couple of weeks, the weather has had some significant impacts on certain games. Currently, there are no games that should see crazy high winds, but for the third game in a row the weather in Cleveland is looking like it will be detrimental to offensive success. The temps are forecasted to be in the low 40s with a 60-70% chance of rain throughout the game. Conditions are just shaping up to be sloppy and miserable to play in so keep that in mind when you’re considering players from that match-up.

Match-ups with implied team totals and moneylines:

Games to Target

Atlanta Falcons @ New Orleans Saints (-4) | 50.5 O/U

ATL: 23.5 implied points | NO: 27.0 implied points

ATL: 8th in offensive tempo | NO: 26th in offensive tempo

ATL: 22nd in defense DVOA | NO: 5th in defense DVOA

This is one of the more obvious games to load up on this slate. This game gets the theoretical domed match-up boost and is also one of just two games that holds a 50+ point implied team total. A few very notable injuries will be worth monitoring. Drew Brees is of course already ruled out with his ribs injury but we also need to keep an eye on the status of Alvin Kamara (foot) and Calvin Ridley (foot). As of Thursday, Kamara has not been practicing but we’ll have to wait and see what he can do today. Obviously, if he misses Friday’s practice, his chances of playing diminish considerably. Ridley is at the very least getting in limited practice reps, so you should feel better about his status for Sunday. Despite the definite absence of Drew Brees, 62% of bettors are currently putting their money on the over (per actionnetwork.com). Honestly, Jameis Winston at the helm may open things up a bit more with this Saints offense and the Falcons defense has of course been a match-up to exploit all season. I’m not saying Winston is a better QB than Brees, but at this stage of their careers, it is obvious who has more arm strength. I’m anxious to see how this one shakes out.

Note: News of Taysom Hill starting clearly impacts the outlook on this game. The total has dropped from 52 to 50.5 and the Saints move from four point favorites to 3.5 point favorites. This is still obviously a worthy game to invest in for DFS purposes, but New Orleans receiving options become considerably more risky.

Cincinnati Bengals @ Washington Football Team (-1) | 47 O/U

CIN: 23.0 implied points | WAS: 24.0 implied points

CIN: 15th in offensive tempo | WAS: 13th in offensive tempo

CIN: 30th in defense DVOA | WAS: 7th in defense DVOA

For the second game to target, I’m rolling with this match-up as a bit more under the radar option. Both teams land inside the top half of the league in terms of offensive tempo and Vegas also has this game pegged as a near pick ‘em. Currently, 64% of bets are coming in on the over, including a massive 94% of the total money wagered (per actionnetwork.com). There are apparently some gamblers out there with major bankrolls who are confident in this over hitting! Washington possesses somewhat of a sneaky strong defense, as you can see by their 7th rank in DVOA, but they have 53 combined points over the last two weeks. Joe Burrow and these Bengals can put up some points, it’s just a matter of if you can catch them in the right week. They’ve eclipsed the 30 point mark in 4-of-9 games this season. They may be without a couple of key offensive contributors in Joe Mixon (foot) and Tee Higgins (illness) -- both questionable -- but I don’t believe they *need* those guys to suit up in order for this game to maintain its relatively high-scoring potential. With all that said, I could also see this one playing out to a sort of 20-13 sort of finish, so perhaps consider most players here as GPP only targets.

Quarterbacks to Consider

Potential quarterback targets at high/mid/low price points.

Justin Herbert | DK: $6.8k, FD: $8.5k | vs. NYJ | Cash & GPP

Even with just 187 yards passing last week against Miami, Herbert was still able to eclipse 20 DKFP as he has done in every one of his starts this season (well, 19.7 DKFP vs. CAR but we round that up). The floor is just so solid and now he’ll draw the terrific Jets match-ups. The Jets have recently overtaken the Jaguars as the worst pass defense in the NFL, in terms of DVOA. They’re giving up 287.1 passing YPG on a 72.4% completion rate and QBs are averaging 23.4 DKFP per game against them. In the Jets last four games, opposing QBs have found even more success: 303.5 YPG, 72.5% comp%, and 25.9 DKFPPG. There is a bit of blowout risk (LAC -9.5) but considering how many close games the Chargers have lost this season (some coming by way of blowing significant leads), along with injuries to their top two RBs, I believe Herbert continues to sling it even if they get up big early.

Jameis Winston | DK: $5.9k, FD: $7.2k | vs. ATL | GPP Preferred

>>>Redacted due to Taysom Hill being announced as the starter<<<

Update: As of Friday morning, Sean Payton hasn’t announced Winston as the starter yet. While he *should* draw the start, we also shouldn’t be surprised if gadget QB Taysom Hill plays a notable role and impacts some of Winston’s upside.

Update #2: In a surprise move, Sean Payton just announced that Taysom Hill (DK: 4.8k, FD: $4.5 at TE) will start this game and (per Adam Schefter) will be expected to play every snap, barring injury. This whole situation just got a lot more interesting and… odd. I think you have to consider Hill at least for GPPs. If further confirmation comes out that Hill will receive a full complement of snaps at QB, then he probably should fall within consideration for cash games as well considering. On FanDuel, Hill for some reason carries tight end eligibility and he might just be a straight up lock over there.

Alex Smith | DK: $5.3k, FD: $6.6k | vs. CIN | Cash & GPP

For these salaries, I think we have to at least give Alex Smith some real consideration. In his two starts, he has thrown for 325 and 390 yards, though he does have just one TD. Smith’s stats were padded last week by way of 55 pass attempts, which is clearly going to be an outlier in terms of volume. But if Smith can get some positive touchdown regression going, this stands out as a promising match-up. The Bengals defense has been getting demolished through the air recently. In the last four games, opposing QBs are averaging 308.5 yards, 3.5 TDs, and 27.5 DKFP. There’s a pretty wide pathway to 3.5x-4x (or better) value here from Smith.

*PJ Walker | DK: $4.8k, FD: $6.5k | vs. DET | GPP Only

*If Teddy Bridgewater (knee) gets ruled out, which is looking likely, AND Walker is announced as the starter over Will Grier, I’d have some interest in taking a shot on Walker in GPPs as he likely would be around 5% owned. Detroit is a decent, but not great, match-up for opposing QBs but Walker’s major DFS appeal is the potential for him to add some value with his rushing ability. He may not run a ton but the rushing upside is there and honestly he’s a pretty capable passer, though we’ve yet to really see him do it at the NFL level. He’s the deepest of GPP punts and wouldn’t even be guaranteed to play all four quarters if he gets off to a rough start.

Running Backs to Consider

Potential running back targets at high/mid/low price points.

Mike Davis | DK: $6.8k, FD: $7.4k | vs. DET | GPP Preferred

The RB landscape is a bit ugly this week. I figured highlighting guys like Alvin Kamara (DK: $9.2k, FD: $9.7k) and Dalvin Cook (DK: $9k, FD: $10.5k) was a bit pointless. You can clearly look to roll out those guys in all formats if you’ve got the salary available. But we start things off with Mike Davis. With Christian McCaffrey ruled out last week, Davis turned into a chalky value pick and ultimately burned a lot of people as he came away with just 8.4 DKFP/6.4 FDFP. Maybe we can go back to the well here and perhaps grab Davis with some low ownership. CMC has been ruled out once again and with Teddy Bridgewater banged up, and likely to miss this game, Davis could carry a major workload both on the ground and through the air. As the fill-in for McCaffrey for most of the year, his production tailed off over the last month or so, but we know he is capable of 20+ fantasy point outings. Also, the match-up can’t get better as the Lions give up the most FPPG to RBs: 36.6 DKFP/33.3 FDFP per game.

*D’Andre Swift | DK: $6.4k, FD: $6.9k | @ CAR | Cash & GPP

We have to monitor Swift’s status for Sunday considering *he popped up on the Thursday injury report as being in the league’s concussion protocol. He wasn’t on Wednesday’s injury report so I suppose we have to assume the concussion was sustained in practice. Entering the concussion protocol that late in the week is definitely worrisome, so there’s a strong chance Swift is out this week. BUT, if he plays, he has undoubtedly been seizing control of this Lions backfield with a 54% snap rate over the last four weeks, 73% last week. The Panthers are also one of the best match-ups an RB can get. They rank 25th in run defense DVOA and allow the 4th most FPPG to running backs. The 66 receptions to running backs against the Panthers defense is also tied for the most RB receptions allowed in the league.

Damien Harris | DK: $5.7k, FD: $5.8k | @ HOU | GPP Preferred

It’s a risky proposition to put faith in any New England Patriots running back, but Damien Harris has far and away looked like their best runner. Despite a tough match-up with Baltimore last week, Harris racked up 121 yards on 22 carries (5.5 YPC). Now the Patriots will draw a domed match-up against Houston who ranks dead last in run defense DVOA and is giving up a league-worst 5.2 YPC. Harris is questionable with a chest and ankle injury but, assuming he suits up, there’s potential for 20+ touches and 100+ yards. He would have to compete against Cam Newton for goal line touches but if he finds the endzone then there great potential for value here. The major downside is Harris’ complete lack of involvement in the passing game with just two targets in six games.

Kalen Ballage | DK: $5.6k, FD: $5.8k | vs. NYJ | Cash & GPP

The ‘hate’ ratings on LineStar are really confusing me here. Ballage could potentially see a 20+ touch workload against the Jets in a game in which LAC is favored by 9.5 points. Ballage has garnered 33 carries over the last two weeks and has caught 7-of-9 targets. The Jets surrender the 8th most FPPG to RBs and have allowed the 7th most receptions to the position. Ballage will lose some touches to Joshua Kelley, but for the time being, he looks to be the back who is taking on the “Austin Ekeler role” as Justin Jackson rides the IR. There is a bit of risk here due to the limited sample size but unless you’re paying all the way up for multiple stud RBs on this slate, you’re gonna have to roster some guys who bring some level of uncertainty to the table.

Salvon Ahmed | DK: $4.8k, FD: $5.6k | @ DEN | Cash & GPP

With Myles Gaskin on IR for at least another week, the rookie Ahmed will have a chance to draw a bellcow type workload. Against the Chargers last week, Ahmed drew a 76% snap share and churned out 85 yards and a score on 21 carries (4.0 YPC), and caught his lone target for five yards. The Broncos are pretty middle-of-the-road in terms of FPPG allowed to RBs (13th most) but they’ve really leaked production to opposing backfields over the last four weeks: 137.3 YPG, 1,5 TDs/gm, 32.8 DKFPPG. Matt Breida looks to return from his hamstring injury this week and could likely draw 5-10 touches, but the initial belief is that Ahmed showed enough last week to hold on to the primary workload, at least until Gaskin returns.

Wide Receivers to Consider

Potential wide receiver targets at high/mid/low price points.

Keenan Allen | DK: $7.4k, FD: $8k | vs. NYJ | Cash & GPP

On a day where Justin Herbert compiled just 187 passing yards, Keenan Allen was still able to salvage a decent fantasy day with a late touchdown catch against Miami. Expect greener pastures against the Jets this week. Allen’s 29% target share checks in at 4th in the NFL behind only Davante Adams, Stefon Diggs, and DeAndre Hopkins. The Jets secondary is in shambles thanks to multiple injuries to former starters so you can look to fire up Allen with confidence in week 11.

Terry McLaurin | DK: $6.9k, FD: $7.3k | vs. CIN | GPP Preferred

Scary Terry owns a highly respectable 28% target share, which is good for 7th in the NFL. But the real impressive stat that should give you confidence is the fact that he accounts for a monstrous 46.6% of his team’s intended air yards -- a percentage that easily puts him first in the NFL in that category. He only had three TDs on the year but with that sort of volume, the positive scoring regression will come. I mentioned above (see; Alex Smith) how bad the Bengals secondary has been lately but to reiterate that point, they have allowed the 3rd most FPPG to WRs over the last four games. McLaurin may draw shadow coverage from William Jackson, who has actually been a bright spot to this Bengals defense, so that gives me a bit of pause on McLaurin. However, he’s still going to see a sizable target share and there’s potential he comes through with a ceiling game. For a sleeper DFS wide receiver play on this team, give Cam Sims (DK: $3.3k, FD: $5k) a look. He’s a huge 6’5” receiver who has played at least 74% of snaps in three straight games (94% last week) and will draw the more advantageous coverage with heavy attention going towards T-Mac.

Diontae Johnson | DK: $5.9k, FD: $6.4k | @ JAX | Cash & GPP

It’s like clockwork. In every game Johnson has played this year where he hasn’t had to leave due to injury, he has garnered double-digit targets each week. JuJu and Claypool round out this dangerous three-headed receiving attack but I still think Johnson is going to be the top option most weeks, so long as his health holds. The Steelers will get a cushy match-up with Jacksonville who ranks 31st in pass defense efficiency and allows a 70.2% completion rate.

Marvin Jones Jr. | DK: $5.5k, FD: $6.4k | @ CAR | GPP Preferred

Much of my confidence in this play hinges on the Lions Friday practice report. As of Thursday, WR Kenny Golladay (hip), RB D’Andre Swift (concussion), and WR Danny Amendola (hip) went down as non-participants. Jones Jr. Is dealing with a knee injury but he was still able to get in a limited practice on Thursday and the speculation is that he’s just seeing some rest-related maintenance during the week. Jones has had a knack for the endzone lately with four touchdowns in the last three weeks. Jones Jr. is seeing just an 18% target share in that span but 26% of the team’s intended air yards. If those other banged-up Lions weapons are forced to miss this week, expect Marvin Jones Jr. to have a significant role against a Panthers team that is allowing 46.3 DKFP per game to WRs over the last four weeks.

Brandin Cooks | DK: $5.2k, FD: $6.1k | vs. NE | GPP Preferred

Cooks has seen at least eight targets in each of the Texans last five games and has earned a team-leading 28% target share in that span. The Patriots have actually been very poor against the pass (30th in pass defense efficiency) and we should maybe expect that to continue, especially if top CB Stephon Gilmore misses another game.

Jakobi Meyers | DK: $4.9k, FD: $6k | @ HOU | Cash & GPP

On the other side in this game, Meyers has quite clearly taken on ‘top dog’ status in this Patriots receiving corps. Meyers has 31 targets in the last three weeks which equates to a massive 42% target share and he owns 60% of the Pats air yards in that span. He even got involved in the passing game last week when he threw an absolute dime on a 24-yard touchdown pass to Rex Burkhead. To state the obvious, we shouldn’t expect Meyers to be pushing Cam Newton out of a job, but he should continue to be the WR1 in this offense and draws a solid match-up against a poor Houston defense.

Jakeem Grant | DK: $3.5k, FD: $4.6k | @ DEN | GPP Preferred

Grant was mentioned as a worthy flier last week and he came through with a 4/43/1 stat line on five targets. The five targets are nothing to write home about, but that was also a game where Tua threw only 25 times and completed just 15 passes. With WR Preston Williams out for the rest of the year, Grant should continue to see the field quite a bit. He drew 76% of the snaps last week and also operates as the team's kick returner. I’m down to roster him while he’s cheap! As previously mentioned, Cam Sims (DK: $3.3k, FD: $5k) is another cheap WR to consider for lineups this week.

Tight Ends to Consider

Tight end targets at high/mid/low price points.

*Taysom Hill ($4,500 on FanDuel)… lock it in?

Hayden Hurst | DK: $4.4k, FD: $5.5k | @ NO | Cash & GPP

DraftKings players won’t get the luxury of locking in a starting quarterback into the tight end position so back to the TE wasteland we go! Hurst’s involvement was at least looking pretty steady when the Falcons went into their week ten bye. In Atlanta’s last four games, Hurst has averaged 6.5 targets/gm and 60.3 YPG. The Saints have struggled with TEs this season and permit the 5th most FPPG to the position. You can probably feel pretty solid about 10+ fantasy points out of Hurst this week, especially if the hobbled Calvin Ridley (a major redzone weapon) is forced to sit.

Logan Thomas | DK: $3.3k, FD: $5.2k | vs. CIN | Cash & GPP

Continuing the meh-ness of the tight end position, we have Thomas up next. Thomas is averaging five targets and 49.0 YPG over the last four games and will face a Bengals defense which gives up the 2nd most FPPG to tight ends. Ya gotta feel at least decently confident in Thomas’ chances at like a 4 catch, 60 yards kind of day with the possibility of a touchdown.

Kyle Rudolph | DK: $3.2k, FD: $4.5k | vs. DAL | GPP Only

If Irv Smith Jr. (groin) misses a second consecutive game, you can probably throw Rudolph up on the board as a GPP flier. In Smith’s absence last week, Rudolph brought in 4-of-5 targets for 63 yards. That gave Rudolph his third game of 40+ yards receiving in his last four game. Yeah, it’s not much to brag about but if he throws a touchdown up on the board, it’s instant value if he produces another game of 40+ yards receiving.

Defenses to Consider

D/ST is a very volatile “position” and shouldn’t take up too much time in your DFS research. However, here are two D/STs I’m on board with this week.

Safer but more expensive option:

Miami Dolphins | DK: $3.4k, FD: $4.8k | @ DEN

If you’re not looking to pay all the way up for that elite Pitt defense, the Dolphins have a solid shot at 10+ fantasy points in this spot against a struggling Broncos offense. Denver is giving up 10.6 FPPG to opposing defenses (11.5 L4G) while Miami is averaging 9.2 FPPG (13.0 L4G). A few sacks and multiple turnovers could be in the cards here.

Riskier but more affordable option:

Atlanta Falcons | DK: $2.3k, FD: $3.2k | @ NO

That Falcons defense is a joke but they’re going to be playing a Saints team led by a QB who has completed just 10 passes in his career and is backed up by a QB known for his insanely high turnover rate. Also, Alvin Kamara may not be available on Sunday. It’s still a stretch to trust this defense too much, but if they get you six to eight fantasy points, I’d consider that a ‘W’.

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