By: @Ryan_Humphries

Catch up on all other LineStar NFL content:

🏈 2021 NFL Season Primer & Strategy Guide

📰 Week 11 Primetime Preview (Previews & Plays for TNF/SNF/MNF)

🔊 PreSnap Podcast every Tuesday, Thursday & Friday!

👇 Subscribe wherever you listen to podcasts! 👇

iTunes | Google Podcasts | Spotify | iHeartRADIO | Stitcher | YouTube

Welcome back for another look ahead at this week’s NFL main slate top DFS plays! Only two teams (Rams & Broncos) are on bye this week so we’ll have a robust 12-game slate to dig into and break down. There are so many excellent match-ups on the board and 10-of-12 games are currently pinned with a single score spread. In terms of potential weather issues, be on the lookout for some rainy conditions in the HOU @ TEN game as well as the IND @ BUF game, with 15 mph sustained winds likely to come into play in the latter contest. Good luck this week, LineStar fam!

Main slate match-ups with implied point totals and spreads:

Games to Target 🎯

Obvious Game Stack

Dallas Cowboys at Kansas City Chiefs (-2.5) | 56 O/U

DAL: 26.8 implied points | KC: 29.3 implied points

Score Prediction: DAL - 30, KC - 34

Game Notes: Well, it doesn’t get much more obvious than this. You have two dangerous offenses coming off of 40+ point week 10 performances facing off in a game with a narrow spread and one of the highest game totals of the season. In terms of overall tempo, both offenses rank among the top 10 teams in the NFL: KC (3rd), DAL (10th). The same goes for situation neutral pace: KC (9th), DAL (2nd). The play volume should be extremely high as well. Chiefs games have averaged the second most plays/gm and fifth-most total points. Cowboys games have averaged the eighth-most plays/gm and second-most points. It’ll probably be a good idea to get some exposure to this match-up. Also, water is wet.

Contrarian Game Stack

Miami Dolphins (-3.5) at New York Jets | 44.5 O/U

MIA: 24.0 implied points | NYJ: 20.5 implied points

Score Prediction: MIA - 33, NYJ - 24

Game Notes: This may be the definition of a match-up only a DFS degenerate could love... or at least stomach. Sure, the total is not insanely high and the Jets are opting to roll with the ghost of Joe Flacco at QB, but there is some potential money to be made by targeting this game. First off, the Jets defense is absolutely reeling right now and opponents have scored an average of 43.8 PPG against NYJ over their last four! You also have two teams here that operate at a top 10 overall offensive pace: MIA (4th), NYJ (9th). Miami games have led the league in total plays this season and both teams pass the ball a ton: MIA - 66.4% pass play% (3rd highest), NYJ - 66.9% pass play% (2nd highest) which should only solidify the overall play volume. Now, keep in mind, my score prediction above is mostly just a ‘for fun’ kinda guess. This game could easily come away with some kinda wretched final score like 19-13 or 17-10 or something along those lines. But with that said, even if the points don’t rain down, the play volume should still be there and it isn’t as if any of the relevant DFS plays in this game are priced at the top of the salary hierarchy. Ultimately, it’s best to hold expectations to a realistic level here -- this is a game featuring one bad team versus one awful team. At the same time… the numbers don’t lie!

Quarterbacks to Consider

Potential quarterback targets at high/mid/low price points.

Dak Prescott, DAL | DK: $7.2k, FD: $8.4k | @ KC

No major surprise here with Dak getting the initial nod as the highlighted spend up option at QB. The shootout potential is as obvious as it gets in this game environment. Kansas City’s defense has begun to settle in and is no longer playing at a historically bad pace as they did over the initial stretch of the season. It’s still an exploitable match-up for Dak against a KC defense that ranks 27th in pass DVOA. Also, in his three starts on the road this season, Dak has averaged 45.3 pass attempts/gm and has completed 74.3% of those passes for 361.7 YPG. Strong floor, strong upside.

Update: It looks like Amari Cooper won't be available for this game due to landing on the COVID-19 reserve list moments ago. Dak gets a slight downgrade, but not a significant one. Michael Gallup being back in the mix helps fill the void left by Cooper.

Derek Carr, LV | DK: $5.9k, FD: $7.2k | vs. CIN

Carr’s 8.1 YPA ranks 7th among NFL QBs and he has accounted for multiple passing TDs in 7-of-9 games on the season while averaging 314 YPG. Cincy’s 284.5 passing YPG allowed over their last four games ranks as the second highest yardage allowed among all defenses on this slate behind only the atrociously bad Jets. It’s easier to pass on the Bengals (21st in pass DVOA) than it is to run on them (10th in rush DVOA) and Las Vegas is already one of the more pass-happy offenses in the league (63.9% pass play%, 6th highest). This is one of only two games on the slate with a 50+ point total and it’s basically a pick ‘em with the Bengals currently getting the nod as slight one point favorites. Carr makes for a strong mid-range play who won’t break the bank.

Cam Newton, CAR | DK: $5.1k, FD: $7.5k | vs. WAS

I can already tell by the 26 player comments on Cam Newton that he is one of the more polarizing QB options on this slate. It’s totally understandable if you want to avoid him on FanDuel, where his $7,500 price tag makes him the ninth-most expensive QB on the board. However, his DraftKings salary of $5,100 results in him being the fourth-cheapest QB on the slate. He hasn’t been officially named the starter just yet but according to Panthers HC Matt Rhule, he is “trending towards” getting the starting nod. The Panthers had limited play packages for Cam last week but the nine snaps he did play resulted in a passing TD and a rushing TD. Now he has a full week’s worth of practice and playbook study under his belt and gets to face a Washington defense that allows the most FPPG to opposing QBs. Given his dual threat potential, it’s not all too hard to see how he offers significant value upside (on DraftKings).

Update: Cam officially named the starter per Matt Rhule.

Running Backs to Consider

Potential running back targets at high/mid/low price points.

Dalvin Cook, MIN | DK: $8.2k, FD: $8.4k | vs. GB

Now, your best bet at the highest end of the RB spectrum would be Christian McCaffrey ($8.9k/$10k) who, even as the priciest DFS option, can return value based on volume alone. Dalvin Cook will make for an appealing GPP pivot off of McCaffrey. While the floor may be lower for Cook (compared to CMC), he’ll offer a similar upside at a significant discount and potential sub-10% ownership. While the match-up may not seem ideal against a Packers defense that allows the 9th fewest FPPG to RBs, Green Bay has also only faced an average of 18.0 rushes/gm from RBs (4th fewest) and they actually check in at 24th in rush DVOA and allow 4.6 YPC (seventh-highest). So their run defense shouldn’t be feared here. Cook is a near lock to handle 20+ touches as one of the rare game flow independent RBs in the league.

D’Andre Swift, DET | DK: $7k, FD: $7.5k | @ CLE

Swift will get a sizable boost if Jamaal Williams (thigh) misses a third consecutive game, but he’s an appealing option even if Williams suits up. Swift played a season-high 93% of snaps in last week’s 16-16 OT tie with Pittsburgh and handled an absurd 36 touches. Of course, the overtime period helped to boost his touch count, but Swift has been an excellent option all throughout the year, particularly in the receiving department where he has drawn at least five targets in every game -- something most wide receivers can't claim. The Cleveland run defense is pretty middle-of-the-pack and they’ve declined in recent weeks, allowing 32.1 DKFP/gm to RBs over their last four, including 6.8 receptions/gm to the position. The Lions have not cracked 20+ points on offense in their last eight games so Swift is probably going to have to account for one of their rare touchdowns and mostly return value based on volume, but that is something he has accomplished on many occasions throughout the year.

AJ Dillon, GB | DK: $6.2k, FD: $7k | @ MIN

With Aaron Jones out with an MCL sprain, Dillon is locked into a workhorse workload this week against the Vikings. All other healthy Packers RBs not named "AJ Dillon" have combined for a grand total of two carries this season. Dillon has also shown the ability to have success as a receiver out of the backfield and has caught 16-of-18 targets for 196 yards (12.3 YPR) on the year. Minnesota also ranks out at 28th in rush DVOA so expect Dillon to turn all of his opportunities into solid production. He is all but guaranteed to be the highest-owned RB on the slate (pending any surprise inactives) but he’s also a dangerous player to outright fade. In cash games, he may be a must-play and in tournaments, I believe you either look to go severely overweight or underweight on him in comparison to the field. I’d project him to chime in at around 40% ownership in GPPs this Sunday.

James Conner, ARI | DK: $6.1k, FD: $7.2k | @ SEA

Conner got caught up in about the worst RB game script imaginable last week against a strong Carolina defense, yet he was still able to salvage a decent fantasy day (15.4 DKFP/13.9 FDFP) thanks to a garbage-time TD. Chase Edmonds is still riding the IR so Conner’s three-down role will continue to be more solidified. He played on 73% of snaps in week 10 while Eno Benjamin, who is now questionable with a groin injury, played on 24% of snaps but had only six touches. Cardinals QB Kyler Murray is also questionable once again with his ankle injury. I believe Conner would actually benefit from Murray playing due to likely seeing less loaded boxes but, if it comes down to it, Colt McCoy is a decent enough backup who can usually keep defenses honest. This offense is just all kinds of banged up with WR DeAndre Hopkins also out this Sunday, so Conner would be in line for a full complement of carries and a healthy dose of targets as well against a Seahawks defense which allows the 2nd most FPPG to RBs.

David Montgomery, CHI | DK: $5.5k, FD: $6.8k | vs. BAL

Montgomery missed four straight games with a knee sprain but once he was activated in week nine ahead of the Bears primetime clash against the Steelers, he saw no limitations and was immediately given a bellcow’s snap share while playing 85% of snaps. He turned 15 total touches into 80 yards of offense and looked good doing it. The lofty snap share is definitely notable since many believed that, upon his return, the Bears backfield would be more closer to an even split between Montgomery and Khalil Herbert, who turned in some solid performances while Monty was sidelined -- yet Herbert had only four carries for 13 yards on 16% of snaps in week nine. The Bears have since had their bye week, so there should be zero concerns about Montgomery’s health, and they will face a Ravens run defense that is much more average than most may realize (15th in rush DVOA, 12th most FPPG allowed to RBs). With “safer” and more obvious RB options on the board, Montgomery makes for an excellent GPP leverage play and is priced quite fairly.

Mark Ingram II, NO | DK: $5.4k, FD: $6.8k | @ PHI

I just got the notification on my phone about Kamara being ruled out once again as I was uploading this article so I'm adding Ingram in on the fly for a second consecutive week. Ingram can be viewed as yet another mid-range plug-and-play RB option due to his implied volume. In Kamara's absence last week, Ingram received excellent usage (14 carries, 7 targets) while playing on 85% of snaps. Philly has not been known to be overly tough against RBs this season so no need to shy away from Ingram due to match-up concerns.

D’Onta Foreman, TEN | DK: $4.9k, FD: $6.2k | vs. HOU

Jeremy McNichols (concussion) has been ruled out for Sunday’s game. Foreman now becomes a very intriguing value play.... though less-so than others previously mentioned. It’s essentially Foreman and veteran Adrian Peterson left to shoulder the Titans backfield duties at the moment. Foreman drew the start in week 10 and led the Titans RBs with a 35% snap%, barely edging out Peterson (33%) and McNichols (27%). McNichols is more involved on passing downs and neither Foreman or Peterson are really renowned for their receiving skills. However, Foreman did rip off a 39-yard catch and run last week and, as long as Tennessee doesn’t add a pass-catching RB to their roster before Sunday, I’d give the edge to Foreman when it comes to seeing more snaps on passing downs. Either way, the Titans currently check in as 10-point home favorites against the lowly Texans. The game script should be favorable for the Titans backfield and Foreman has a better-than-average shot at 15-20 touches this week.

Wide Receivers to Consider

Potential wide receiver targets at high/mid/low price points.

Davante Adams, GB | DK: $8.4k, FD: $8.4k | @ MIN

Adams is unsurprisingly commanding a league-leading 34.3% TGT% on the season along with 43% of Green Bay’s total air yards. He draws an excellent match-up against Minnesota, who has allowed the 3rd most FPPG to WRs over the last four weeks. In the two games against the Vikings last season, Adams absolutely feasted, catching 21-of-29 targets for 209 yards and FIVE touchdowns. Elite WRs have handled this Vikings secondary with ease all season and Adams should be no different.

Deebo Samuel, SF | DK: $7.8k, FD: $7.6k | @ JAX

Besides a couple of WRs who have played <10% of snaps and have ripped off a few big plays, Deebo (83% snap%) leads all NFL receivers with an obscene 0.439 FP/Snap. Not only is his 32.3% TGT% third in the NFL, behind Adams and Cooper Kupp, but he is coming off of a game where he caught 5-of-5 targets for 97 yards and a TD while also being the 49ers most efficient runner, going for 36 yards on five carries (7.2 YPC) with a rushing TD. He’s dealing with a shin bruise and is questionable at the time of this writing, but I’d be surprised to see him sidelined come Sunday. Assuming he’s anywhere close to 100%, it’s a great match-up against a bad Jacksonville pass defense (31st in pass DVOA).

Update: Deebo has been removed from the injury report. All systems go.

Brandin Cooks, HOU | DK: $6k, FD: $6.6k | @ TEN

Volume is king in all realms of DFS and Cooks certainly qualifies with his 9.1 tgt/gm and 30.4% TGT%, which ranks 4th in the NFL behind, you guessed it, Adams, Kupp, and Deebo. Tennessee has surrendered *the* most FPPG to WRs this season and, despite performing a bit better as of late, they’re still giving up high-end production to opposing wide outs. Cooks is never an exciting play due to the inept offense he is stuck in, but Houston has had two weeks to prepare for this game and perhaps Tyrod Taylor is poised to have a more effective outing after shaking the rust off in week nine when he completed only 24-of-43 passes (55.8%) -- 13 of which went in the direction of Cooks (30.2% TGT%).

Jaylen Waddle, MIA | DK: $5.6k, FD: $6.7k | vs. NYJ

It only makes sense to want to attack this Jets defense that has been utterly atrocious in recent weeks. They’ve given up the most FPPG to WRs over the last month, and it’s not particularly close. With DeVante Parker and Will Fuller still on the IR, Waddle has a great shot at commanding 10+ targets in this game which profiles as a sneaky good match-up to gain exposure to. Ugly… but sneaky good... maybe. WR Albert Wilson ($3.1k/$5.1k) may not be a bad GPP flier to consider either. He was a difference-maker in Miami’s Thursday night upset over the Ravens, racking up 106 all-purpose yards and playing 52% of snaps.

Elijah Moore, NYJ | DK: $4.9k, FD: $5.9k | @ MIA

I’d say it’s probably time to give rookie WR Elijah Moore some additional time on the field. Despite being a clearly effective playmaker, Moore has played on only 49% of snaps over the last four games yet is providing an elite 0.411 FP/snap. While I'm not sold on the idea, perhaps it may benefit Moore to have Joe Flacco under center as opposed to Mike White (or Zach Wilson, if he were healthy). Over the course of the entire season, the Dolphins have been a soft pass defense and Moore is due to see an uptick in targets soon. But, for now, his 6.5 tgt/gm over the last four weeks is promising enough.

Michael Gallup, DAL | DK: $4.2k, FD: $5.4k | @ KC

It’s probably not a bad time to take a shot on Gallup in some GPP lineups while he's this cheap. It isn’t as if Dallas had to stay aggressive for too long last week while cruising to a 43-3 victory over Atlanta. But, in his first taste of NFL action since sustaining a calf injury that left him sidelined since week one, Gallup played 53% of snaps (2nd among DAL WRs) and led the team with an 11.4-yard aDOT. He’ll see at least a couple deep shots head his way in this potential shoot out with Kansas City. With CeeDee Lamb and Amari Cooper also lining up out wide and Zeke/Pollard threatening out of the backfield, Gallup could be the “forgotten man” when it comes to drawing defensive attention from the Chiefs.

Update: Amari Cooper was just placed on the COVID-19 reserve list which puts his availability for Sunday's game in serious doubt. Gallup may have just gone from a tournament flier to a borderline “lock and load” value play. In fact, I’m going to go ahead and slot Gallup in as my touchdown call of the week. Let’s get it!

Marcus Johnson, TEN | DK: $3.5k, FD: $5.6k | vs. HOU

Johnson’s five catch, 100-yard performance in week 10 may have impressed the coaching staff enough to give him another extended audition and a chance to fill in the void left by Julio Jones, who is currently on the IR with a nagging hamstring injury. Johnson brought a much-needed big play element to the field last week which led to him playing 63% of snaps, second among Titans WRs to only AJ Brown (82%). He’ll be another GPP flier to keep in mind this Sunday as the Titans look to grab their seventh win in a row.

Tight Ends to Consider

Tight end targets at high/mid/low price points.

Travis Kelce, KC | DK: $7.1k, FD: $7.3k | vs. DAL

It turns out that when you feed your elite tight end with high percentage targets, moving the chains on offense and winning games becomes much easier! It was a vintage Kelce performance on Sunday night against the Raiders as he ripped off chunk play after chunk play, catching 8-of-10 targets for 119 yards. The only thing missing was a tuddy or two. Dallas should be able to pressure Kansas City into an aggressive offensive approach which is good news for Kelce. I believe there is enough value on the board this week to where paying up at the tight end position is a highly viable strategy.

Mike Gesicki, MIA | DK: $5.2k, FD: $6.3k | vs. NYJ

You have to wonder how many people will simply look at Gesicki’s goose egg from last Thursday and write him off entirely while not realizing he still drew seven targets. Gesicki is now averaging just under seven targets per game which is borderline elite usage for a tight end. Given how much Miami passes the ball and the cake match-up they’re presented with this week, Gesicki makes for another appealing spend-up TE option.

Cole Kmet, CHI | DK: $3.4k, FD: $5.1k | vs. BAL

Of course, there’s nothing wrong with spending down at tight end and splurging on your RBs & WRs or a high-end QB… in fact, it’s often the optimal route to take on the majority of large slates. So, enter Cole Kmet who has a very enticing 22.3% TGT% between weeks 6-10 (ranks second on the team behind Darnell Mooney - 25% TGT%). We’ve been attacking Baltimore with tight ends all season since their defense tends to funnel targets towards the middle of the field. No reason to stop now!

Defenses to Consider

D/ST is a very volatile “position” and shouldn’t take up too much time in your DFS research. However, here are two D/STs I’m on board with this week.

Safer but more expensive option:

Miami Dolphins | DK: $3.6k, FD: $4.8k | @ NYJ

The Dolphins defense was downright pesky against Lamar Jackson and the Ravens last Thursday night as they racked up four sacks, two turnovers, and surrendered only 10 points. Joe Flacco may find himself under similar duress on Sunday. While I have mentioned this game as one to target for offensive purposes (mainly on the Miami side), it also wouldn’t shock me if the Jets come out and look totally inept behind Flacco.

Riskier but more affordable option:

Carolina Panthers | DK: $2.7k, FD: $4.1k | vs. WAS

The Panthers will take the field at home following a big win on the road, and they simply have too much talent on the defensive side of the ball to not fall into consideration versus Washington. Opposing D/STs is averaging 13.8 FP versus Washington over their last four games and Carolina’s D/ST is likely priced a tad too low in this spot.

Touchdown Call 🏈

Michael Gallup, DAL | DK: $4.2k, FD: $5.4k | @ KC

Weekly NFL Freeroll + LineStar Avatar

We’ll be hosting a weekly NFL freeroll on DraftKings, so remember to join!

DM us on Twitter to claim your prize!

Here is a link for this week’s LineStar freeroll!

• 1st place: $10 via PayPal

• 2nd-3rd place: Your choice of one-month LineStar Premium subscription, t-shirt or mug

• BONUS - If you place 1st, 2nd or 3rd in the LineStar Freeroll and you are using the LineStar avatar below, you will receive 2x that prize!

Please Note - While you may enter the LineStar freeroll as often as you’d like, you can only win each prize 1 time.

Once again, if you have any questions DM me on Twitter or hit me up in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck this week!

Let us know if you enjoyed the issue with a Yes or No below!