Buckle in for another wild NFL Sunday with an 11-game main slate on tap!

By: @Ryan_Humphries

Week 11 NFL PreSnap Podcast 🎙️

Catch Tyler Wiemann and Shannon Sommerville's run down on this Sunday's NFL DFS main slate!

Also, for anyone looking to roll out some NFL props this week, be sure to check out the info and videos at the end of this article featuring usage of LineStar's new Prop Edge+ for NFL tool. This tool can help make prop bettors some extra cash -- especially on sites like PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!

A free two-pick PrizePicks "Power Play" is posted at the end of this article as well!

Week 11 DFS Main Slate Rundown 📝

It's time to enjoy another slice of football heaven in week eleven! Fittingly, Sunday provides us with an 11-game main slate to dig into and break down. Some unusual suspects are picking up some late-season steam while other superstar players continue to thrive. Let's get a look into this week's top DFS plays to consider along with some prop bet action to dabble in!

Main slate match-ups with implied point totals and spreads:

Weather Report

As a reminder, weather plays less of a factor in football than it does in other sports but it is still worth making note of any games that could see wet conditions, high winds, or (when we get into the winter months) frigid, snowy conditions.

The forecasts can always change so, as always, run a final weather check closer to kickoff!

CLE @ BUF (1:00 ET, 50 O/U): In case anyone missed the news, this game has been moved to Detroit so no blizzard conditions to worry about.

CAR @ BAL (1:00 ET, 41.5 O/U): 15+ mph winds. Downfield passing takes a hit.

NYJ @ NE (1:00 ET, 38 O/U): ~15 mph winds. Downfield passing takes a hit.

DET @ NYG (1:00 ET, 45 O/U): 15+ mph winds. Downfield passing takes a hit.

Quarterbacks to Consider

Potential quarterback targets at high/mid/low price points.

Josh Allen, BUF | DK: $8.5k, FD: $9.2k | vs. CLE

If this game stayed in Buffalo, I’d have heavy reservations about spending up on Josh Allen. Now that he gets the advantage of playing in a dome against a bad defense, those reservations have largely disappeared. The Browns rank 31st in overall DVOA, allowing a score on 43.4% of opponent drives (3rd highest). Unlike last week, Josh Allen does not head into this Sunday with any concerning injury designation due to the right elbow injury he sustained a couple of weeks ago. On top of his 303.7 YPG passing this season, Allen is always a great bet to add significant rushing yardage (52.9 rushing YPG). This Bills offense should be highly motivated after dropping two consecutive games as favorites.

Justin Fields, CHI | DK: $7.6k, FD: $8.7k | @ ATL

Imagine telling NFL DFS players after the first few weeks of the season that Justin Fields would eventually get up to $7.6k/$8.7k on DK/FD by week 11… and that people would gladly pay those prices to put him into their lineups! I’m just waiting on the Fields regression game, but for now, he is too productive to ignore. Over his last four games, he’s averaging 116.8 rushing YPG, and he’s racked up THIRTEEN total touchdowns (eight passing, five rushing). Without multiple touchdowns, his passing upside remains highly questionable, but he does get to face a Falcons defense that allows an NFL-high 289.8 passing YPG. But we’re really eyeing Fields for the insane rushing potential that he has been putting on display. As stated in last week’s newsletter, given the way Chicago has utilized Fields’ skill set, you’re essentially getting an RB1 with passing upside. Looking at it that way makes paying for these sorts of lofty salaries much more palatable.

Jacoby Brissett, CLE | DK: $5.4k, FD: $6.7k | vs. BUF

I don’t love the QB value tier on this slate, but if you want to get highly contrarian, perhaps Brissett is a cheap sub-5% owned option to consider in tournaments. Deshaun Watson’s suspension is up in two weeks, which means Brissett’s time as the Browns' starting QB is nearing its end. He hasn’t exactly lit it up, but Brissett has filled in admirably as the starter this season, and he has netted at least 15.4 DKFP in 6-of-9 games. After this season, he will be an unrestricted free agent, so we’ll take a ride down narrative street and figure that Brissett will want to use these final two starts as an extended audition to land a solid contract with another NFL team after this year. The Browns are +7.5 underdogs to the Bills this week. They have operated at the 3rd fastest pace when trailing by 7+ points, and this Bills' defense has been hit by a ton of injuries, particularly in the secondary. As we saw Kirk Cousins do last week, this Buffalo team is beatable through the air.

Running Backs to Consider

Potential running back targets at high/mid/low price points.

Josh Jacobs, LV | DK: $7.5k, FD: $8.5k | @ DEN

Jacobs’ 27 touches in week 10 represented a stout 42.2% touch%, which ranked 4th among all RBs for the week. The six catches on eight targets (both season highs) may be what stands out the most. Some big branches on the Raiders' target tree have fallen off recently (D. Waller and H. Renfrow are both on IR) so Jacobs is a strong candidate to continue to see some sizable receiving work to go on top of his carry volume. The Broncos own a subpar run defense (20th in rush DVOA), and they have allowed 6.5 receptions/gm to RBs over their last four games.

Rhamondre Stevenson, NE | DK: $6.7k, FD: $8.1k | vs. NYJ

Stevenson has turned into a true three-down featured back who has handled 18+ touches in six consecutive games, including at least seven targets in three straight. Stevenson’s 74% snap% over the last four games ranks 4th among RBs on this slate behind only Saquon, Dalvin Cook, and D. Singletary. He’s rarely going to come off the field, and given the windy forecast shown for this game, this may be a ground-and-pound type of game script that could feature quite a few RB dump-off passes.

David Montgomery, CHI | DK: $6.1k, FD: $6.7k | @ ATL

The Bears backfield has been close to a 60/40 split between Montgomery (57.2% snap%) and Khalil Herbert (37.4% snap%). Herbert has now landed on the IR with a hip injury, making way for more of a featured role for Montgomery. Now, the obvious caveat here stems from Justin Fields and his near-complete takeover of the Bears' run game. However, there is still room for Montgomery to handle 15-20 touches, assuming he plays around 80% of the snaps. That could be plenty enough volume to return value against a Falcons defense that allows the 11th most FPPG to RBs.

Antonio Gibson, WAS | $5.6k, FD: $6.6k | @ HOU

Brian Robinson Jr., WAS | DK: $5.3k, FD: $6.6k | @ HOU

RBs against Houston (31st in rush DVOA, most FPPG allowed to RBs) has been a near-weekly play, but the waters are a little murky this go ‘round. Both Gibson and Robinson played essentially half of the snaps apiece against the Eagles on Monday night. Gibson came away with 17 touches (14 carries, 3 receptions) while Robinson handled a 26-touch workload (all carries). Both guys found the endzone and while neither was particularly efficient, their steady contribution toward positive yardage was integral in the major upset over the formerly undefeated Eagles. If I’m trusting one of these guys, I’d lean toward Gibson considering he is a bit more “game script independent” due to his role as the preferred pass catcher. However, if the Commanders (-3 road favorites) do get a sizable lead early, it could be another 20+ carry game for Robinson as well. However you dice it up, both guys are in play for GPPs.

Wide Receivers to Consider

Potential wide receiver targets at high/mid/low price points.

Justin Jefferson, MIN | DK: $9.1k, FD: $9.1k | vs. DAL

Jefferson’s late-game catch (you know the one) is going to be played on highlight reels for years to come. His monstrous 16-target, 10-catch, 193-yard week 10 performance vaulted him to an NFL-leading 117.8 YPG and I’m not sure that the Cowboys are fully equipped to slow him down. You’re paying the premium to get a guy like Jefferson into your lineups but he has just such a low chance of putting up a dud, and a major bonus comes from his average of +39.5% more fantasy points when playing in a dome.

Stefon Diggs, BUF | DK: $8.3k, FD: $9.4k | vs. CLE

Diggs is another stud receiver that we’ll likely want some exposure to this week. Now that the game has been moved to Ford Field, this match-up all of a sudden features a slate-high 50 O/U. Diggs has commanded double-digit targets in 6-of-9 games this season and has poured in at least 25.8 DKFP in four of his last five games. The Browns have allowed the 8th most FPPG to perimeter WRs (Diggs: 61% perimeter%) and we should expect this elite Josh Allen to Stefon Diggs connection to continue prospering.

Terry McLaurin, WAS | DK: $5.9k, FD: $7.3k | @ HOU

QB Taylor Heinicke loves him some Terry McLaurin. Since Heinicke took over as the Commanders’ starting QB four weeks ago, Scary Terry has owned an elite 31.9% TGT% and an astronomical 55.8% AirYard%. He is averaging 6.0 rec/gm and 92.5 YPG with Heinicke at the helm. Who knew that throwing to your best wide receiver would lead to sustaining drives and winning football games?! Houston doesn’t give up a ton of production to opposing WRs, mainly because teams can just run the ball against them 40 times a game, coast to a win, and call it a day. But McLaurin remains a strong play out of the mid-tier this week as Washington should have no major issues moving the ball up and down the field this Sunday.

Darius Slayton, NYG | DK: $5k, FD: $6.3k | vs. DET

The Giants aren’t forced to air it out too much given how much of a workload Saquon Barkley is carrying this season. With that said, Slayton has benefited from injuries to the Giants WR corps and over the last five games, he has boasted an excellent 37.1% AirYard% and leads the team in targets (26), receptions (18), receiving yards (316), and he has hauled in a pair of TDs. Slayton has either scored a touchdown or has at least five catches for 66 yards in four of the last five games. He’ll enjoy a soft match-up against a Lions secondary that has allowed the 7th most FPPG to WRs this season.

Ben Skowronek, LAR | DK: $3.9k, FD: $5.3k | @ NO

Let’s all pour one out for Cooper Kupp who looks to be done for the year following a week 10 ankle injury that will require surgery. Kupp was the only bright spot to an otherwise abysmal Rams offense but he will leave behind a huge 31.0% TGT% that will need to be distributed to other Rams receivers. Skowronek ended up playing 98% of snaps in week 10 and drew seven targets. He is expected to primarily take on slot duties in place of Kupp and the Rams seem committed to continuously throwing to their slot receiver. The Saints are stout against the slot thanks to some strong play from Chris Harris Jr., but Skowronek should also see some perimeter work, and anyone who has a shot to command 7-10 targets at these salaries is going to be worth a look as a GPP flier in DFS lineups.

Tight Ends to Consider

Tight end targets at high/mid/low price points.

Dalton Schultz, DAL | DK: $4.3k, FD: $5.9k | @ MIN

In the four games Dak has started (weeks 1, 7, 8, and 10), Schultz has owned a 21.5% TGT% which trails only CeeDee Lamb’s 28.9% TGT% among Cowboys receivers in those four games. He has averaged 6.0 receptions for 59.8 YPG in those four games as well. Schultz is a solid tight end option in a game that has major potential to turn into a bit of a back-and-forth shootout.

Cole Kmet, CHI | DK: $4.1k, FD: $5.7k | @ ATL

Can he do it again? The Fields to Kmet connection has been as strong as ever, and the big tight end now has five touchdown receptions in his last three games. The Bears are moving the ball much more effectively, and when they venture into the redzone, Kmet’s target share skyrockets to 29.2%. The Falcons have given up the 3rd most receiving yards to TEs this season so Kmet could keep up the current momentum… though, expecting another two-touchdown performance would be a stretch.

Juwan Johnson, NO | DK: $3.1k, FD: $5.1k | vs. LAR

Andy Dalton has thrown six touchdowns in the last four games, and Juwan Johnson has been on the receiving end of four of them. He may not possess a strong target floor but he remains a cheap option on DraftKings and the Saints are reportedly rolling out Andy Dalton once again as their starter this week.

Defenses to Consider

D/ST is a very volatile “position” and shouldn’t take up too much time in your DFS research. However, here are some D/STs I’m on board with this week.

Pay-Up D/ST: Baltimore Ravens | DK: $4k, FD: $4.7k | vs. CAR

Mid-Range D/ST: New Orleans Saints | DK: $3k, FD: $4.1k | vs. LAR

DraftKings Value: Pittsburgh Steelers | DK: $2.3k, FD: $3.8k | vs. CIN

Stacks & Bring Backs 🥞

Below are a few team/game stack ideas to consider for this slate. In some examples, I will include a “bring back” option which will feature a normal "QB + Receiver" stack along with a player from the opposing team in the same game that could also benefit should the primary "QB + Receiver" stack go off.

QB + WR/TE + Opp Receiver (Game Stack)

Dak Prescott, Dalton Schultz, Justin Jefferson

QB + WR/TE + Opp Receiver (Game Stack)

Josh Allen, Stefon Diggs, Donovan Peoples-Jones

QB + Two Pass Catchers (Double Stack)

Justin Fields, Cole Kmet, Darnell Mooney

QB + Two Pass Catchers (Double Stack)

Joe Burrow, Tee Higgins, Hayden Hurst

Full Team Stack - QB/WR/RB

Daniel Jones, Darius Slayton, Saquon Barkley

Value Team Stack

Taylor Heinicke, Terry McLaurin, Antonio Gibson

“Ugly Duckling Game Stack” | QB + WR + Opp RB

Zach Wilson, Garrett Wilson, Rhamondre Stevenson

Touchdown Call 🏈

Stefon Diggs, BUF | DK: $8.3k, FD: $9.4k | vs. CLE

Reminder: Follow @LineStarApp on Twitter and retweet the weekly Touchdown Calls tweet! Three retweeters are randomly selected and assigned a player from the TD calls between myself, @FlatTyler83, and @ShannonOnSports. If your player scores a touchdown, you’ll win your choice of cash (via PayPal) or a one-month subscription to LineStar!

PrizePicks Sunday NFL Power Play ⚡

This is a two-pick NFL "Power Play" I have over on PrizePicks. Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but these props did stand out so I'll be rolling it out with confidence! If it hits, it will return a 3x payout!

Dalton Schultz MORE than 41.5 Receiving Yards

Darius Slayton MORE than 9.5 Fantasy Score

🆕 Props Edge+ 🆕

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Once again, if you have any questions DM me on Twitter or hit me up in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck this week!

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