By: @Ryan_Humphries | LineStar Chat: @N1TRO

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I hope everyone had a safe and happy Thanksgiving! After that lackluster Thanksgiving Day slate, we can shake off our wine and tryptophan hangover and look forward to an awesome Sunday main slate that features a bevy of terrific, evenly matched games. There is still a lot of uncertainty and pessimism surrounding the rescheduled Ravens/Steelers game, which is currently set to play at 1:15 ET on Sunday. While DraftKings has added that game to their main slate, FanDuel still hasn’t. For the sake of consistency, I am going to avoid mentioning any Baltimore and Pittsburgh, players. I’m leaning towards the belief that they won’t even be able to play on Sunday anyhow.

Update: Steelers/Ravens game now confirmed for Tuesday at 8 pm ET.

Only a few more weeks left in the regular season so let’s cash in while we can!

Games to Target

Las Vegas Raiders (-3) @ Atlanta Falcons | 54 O/U

Implied Points | LV: 28.5, ATL: 25.5

Plays Per Game (Rank) | LV: 63.6 (21st), ATL: 69.0 (4th)

Yards/Game Allowed (Rank) | LV: 385.8 (24th), ATL: 406.6 (29th)

This game being highlighted should come as no surprise. We’ve targeted the Falcons all year, especially when the game is at Atlanta inside the domed Mercedes-Benz Stadium where game totals have averaged 52.8 points this season. Both of these defenses rank among the bottom ten in yards allowed per game while both offenses check-in at the top half of the league in points per game: LV - 28.6 PPG (8th), ATL - 25.2 PPG (16th). This game should just provide a really strong offensive environment and currently, 56% of bettors are placing their money on the over hitting (per actionnetwork.com). There are quite a few notable offensive players listed as questionable for this game, so be sure to keep your eye on the injury report between now and Sunday.

Kansas City Chiefs (-3.5) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 56 O/U

Implied Points | KC: 29.8, TB: 26.3

Plays Per Game (Rank) | KC: 65.3 (11th), TB: 64.8 (13th)

Yards/Game Allowed (Rank) | KC: 355.1 (15th), TB: 310.5 (6th)

This match-up is hard to ignore as it sets up as the premier game of the week and there is an outside chance this could even be a Super Bowl LV preview. Primetime seems to be Tom Brady and the Bucs’ kryptonite this year as they are 1-3 under the lights of TNF/SNF/MNF. They have averaged just 18.0 PPG in those primetime games. However, they’re 6-1 in their non-primetime games this season and average nearly 36 PPG. They’ll need every bit of that offensive upside if they hope to hang with the Patrick Mahomes-led Chiefs, who lead the NFL averaging 32.1 PPG. While both teams possess solid defenses, you have to assume that the offenses have the upper hand here. The public agrees as a massive 71% of bettors (and 91% of wagers) are coming in on the over hitting in this one (per actionnetwork.com). Both teams are very healthy for this time of the season and we could very well see a back-and-forth shootout occur down in Tampa.

Quarterbacks to Consider

Potential quarterback targets at high/mid/low price points.

Studs in a Smash Spots: Patrick Mahomes (DK: $8k, FD: $9k) & Josh Allen (DK: $7.6k, FD: $8.6k)

Justin Herbert | DK: $7.2k, FD: $8.4k | @ BUF | GPP Preferred

The price increases have pushed Herbert more into ‘GPP only’ territory, but you still know you can basically expect 20 FP as Herbert’s floor with a ceiling of 30+ FP. The Chargers have been one of the most entertaining offenses to watch this season. They lead the league with 72.0 plays/gm so there is always a ton of volume for Herbert to take advantage of. Buffalo also allows the 5th most FPPG to opposing QBs and this should be a great game environment for offense on both sides of the ball.

Taysom Hill | DK: $6.2k, FD: $7.3k | @ DEN | GPP Preferred

We can’t overreact from one game, but Hill’s rushing upside solidifies his stature as a great GPP target this week. Any one of us who were left scratching our heads when Sean Payton named Hill the starter over Jameis Winston last week now knows why he made that decision. In a league where money talks, Hill’s recently signed two-year $21 million contract should probably tell us that the Saints organization values him much more over Jameis Winston, who is playing a reserve role on a $1.1 million contract. I’m still not convinced on Hill as a passer, but he did come out and complete 18-of-23 passes (78.3%) on Atlanta… but everyone passes on Atlanta. Denver boasts a middling, perhaps even above average, defense so the sledding could be more difficult for Hill and the Saints this week. Ya still have to like him for GPPs though.

Derek Carr | DK: $5.7k, FD: $7.1k | @ ATL | Cash & GPP

Checks notes… opponent: Atlanta (most FPPG allowed to QBs). Yeah, I’d say Carr is in play in all formats. RB Josh Jacobs also showed up late in the week on the injury report with a hip injury. If he is forced to miss this game, we could see Carr throw it 40+ times.

*Ryan Fitzpatrick | DK: $5.5k, FD: $7.4k | @ NYJ | Cash & GPP

*Obviously, if Tua (left thumb) is active, you can’t play Fitz. But if Tua eventually gets ruled out, I see nothing wrong with taking a shot of some Fitzmagic. The 6-4 Dolphins have very legitimate postseason hopes on their minds so there is no tanking association to be had with them this season. The Jets give up the 4th most FPPG to QBs and hell, you might as well throw in a dash of #RevengeNarrative as well. Though, Fitzpatrick has played for 25% of the teams in the NFL so I wouldn’t put much weight on that.

Running Backs to Consider

Potential running back targets at high/mid/low price points.

Studs in Smash Spots: Dalvin Cook (DK: $9.5k, FD: $11k) & Alvin Kamara (DK: $8.2k, FD: $8.6k)

Nick Chubb | DK: $7.4k, FD: $8.4k | @ JAX | Cash & GPP

The Browns have led the league in rush play percentage this season (52.12%) and when you have a dynamic running back duo that features Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt, that shouldn’t come as a surprise. After missing four games with a sprained MCL in his right knee, Chubb has shown no ill side effects after combining for 240 yards on 39 carries (6.2 YPC) the last two weeks. Jacksonville’s lowly defense, which gives up the 6th most FPPG to RBs, doesn’t stand much of a chance against Chubb and Hunt this week.

James Robinson | DK: $6.3k, FD: $7.4k | vs. CLE | GPP Preferred

On the other side of the ball, Robinson is a viable option based on his projected workload alone. He should receive near, or above, 20 touches basically every week regardless of game flow. The Browns are solid on defense and have allowed the 11th fewest FPPG to RBs this season, but do remember that they’ll be without All World DE Myles Garrett (C-19) in this game, as well as a few other key defenders.

Wayne Gallman Jr. | DK: $5k, FD: $5.7k | @ CIN | Cash & GPP

Since taking over as the Giants lead RB four games ago, Gallman has averaged 15.5 touches/gm and has shown a terrific nose for the endzone with five touchdowns in that span. His 4.0 YPC average this season isn’t anything to be excited about, but he’s cheap and should continue to be given solid volume. The Giants will also head into the week favored by a touchdown over the Joe Burrow-less Bengals. Assuming New York can get a lead and hold onto it, that would clearly stand to benefit Gallman and the run game. Cincinnati’s defense gives up 5.0 YPC, the highest average in the NFL.

Nyheim Hines | DK: $4.6k, FD: $5.7k | vs. TEN | GPP Only

You can’t trust this Colts backfield in any given week, but Hines did torch this Titans defense for 115 yards and two touchdowns a couple weeks ago on Thursday Night Football. Hines is typically only going to be the change of pace back with Jonathan Taylor and Jordan Wilkins mostly handling the early down work. But Hines does possess a valuable role in the redzone and always has some sneaky multi-touchdown potential. Absolutely a GPP only play though but his ownership would likely be in the area of 5%.

*Brian Hill | DK: $4k, FD: $5.1k | vs. LV | Cash & GPP

*Depends on the status of Todd Gurley II (knee). Gurley has missed practice for three days in a row, putting his status for Sunday’s game in legitimate doubt. Hill would be the primary candidate to see the bulk of the touches if Gurley were to miss this game. Hill is routinely involved in this Atlanta offense to begin with and has three games this season with 10+ touches. He boasts a respectable 4.4 YPC. The Raiders give up the 4th most FPPG to RBs so if Hill does end up being the main guy, he represents huge value.

Wide Receivers to Consider

Potential wide receiver targets at high/mid/low price points.

Studs in Smash Spots: Keenan Allen (DK: $8k, FD: $8.2k), Tyreek Hill (DK: $7.8k, FD: $8.6k), and Stefon Diggs (DK: $7.6k, FD: $7.9k)

*Justin Jefferson | DK: $6.3k, FD: $7k | vs. CAR | Cash & GPP

*If Adam Thielen (C-19) is cleared to play, I’d probably bump Jefferson to a ‘GPP Preferred’ target. Right now it seems like the team is preparing to be without Thielen, so this looks like a terrific spot to fire up Jefferson. The Panthers have given up the 11th most FPPG to WRs over the last four weeks, including THE most FPPG to perimeter receivers where Jefferson aligns on 61% of his routes. The rookie has a terrific 22.6% target share this season along with a lofty 13.32 yard aDOT (average depth of target) and owns 37.1% of the Vikings air yards. The ceiling is incredible to begin with but his floor would be given an immense boost with Thielen sidelined.

DJ Moore | DK: $6.2k, FD: $7.3k | @ MIN | GPP Preferred

It may not seem like it, but DJ Moore is 6th in the league in receiving and, prior to Will Fuller’s huge Thanksgiving game, Moore was 4th among wide receivers through week 11 with 863 yards. And the three WRs ahead of him (Hopkins, Diggs, McLaurin) have 16, 22, and 13 more targets than Moore, as well as 26, 27, and 16 more receptions, respectively. Moore’s 18.8 yards per catch trails only the aforementioned Justin Jefferson and Marquez Valdez-Scantling. While he is a bit dependent on the big play, he has come through with plenty of great games this season and should be viewed as an excellent GPP target.

Antonio Brown | DK: $5.7k, FD: $6.5k | vs. KC | Cash & GPP

Brown hasn’t had a breakout game with the Bucs yet but he has seen 21 targets over the last two weeks. He gets targeted on high percentage underneath and intermediate routes and the Buccaneers should likely find themselves pressured into a pass-heavy approach this week. Eventually the touchdowns and 100+ yard games will come for Brown if he continues to see the sort of volume he has over the last couple games.

Sterling Shepard | DK: $5.1k, FD: $5.4k | vs. CIN | Cash & GPP

Shepard may be more of a PPR floor play on DraftKings, but he often operates as Daniel Jones’ safety net and has seen an average of 8.0 targets/gm over the last four. Sterling runs 38% of his routes on the right side of the field (more than any other NYG WR) and the Bengals give up the most FPPG to receivers aligning on that side. Cincinnati has also allowed the 5th most FPPG to all WRs over the last month so, as mentioned, Shepard likely carries a strong PPR floor in this match-up.

Keelan Cole Sr. | DK: $3.6k, FD: $5.3k | vs. CLE | GPP Preferred

With DJ Chark Jr. (ribs) and Chris Conley (hip) already ruled out for this week, that will leave Jacksonville without two players who combine for 33.8% of passing targets and 49.8% of the team’s air yards. Laviska Shenault Jr. (DK: $3.3k, FD: $5k) also stands to benefit, and is a worthy punt, but in GPPs I would prefer Cole who should see more down field targets and thus should possess more upside. The Jacksonville QB carousel moves onto Mike Glennon this week and I wouldn’t say he is a significant upgrade or downgrade to Jake Luton and Gardner Minshew II.

Andy Isabella | DK: $3k, FD: $4.7k | @ NE | GPP Only

Continuing the theme of “potential for increased opportunity,” Larry Fitzgerald (C-19) is out this week so Isabella should see some increased snaps out of the slot. The Cardinals have ran 11 personnel (3WR) and 10 personnel (4WR) sets on a combined 65% of plays this year, so Isabella should be on the field for quite a bit in this game. He’s also averaging a solid 12.3 yards/catch on the year so a handful of targets could pay off these salaries, especially on DK where he is the bare minimum $3,000.

Tight Ends to Consider

Tight end targets at high/mid/low price points.

Studs in Smash Spots: Travis Kelce (DK: $7k, FD: $8k) and Darren Waller (DK: $6k, FD: $7.1k)

Hunter Henry | DK: $4.8k, FD: $5.9k | @ BUF | GPP Preferred

After back-to-back weeks finding the endzone, the positive touchdown regression is finally falling in Henry’s favor. He has seen at least six targets in 8-of-10 games this season and Buffalo is sneaky bad against tight ends, allowing the 2nd most FPPG to the position. However, in cash games this Sunday, if you can find the salary savings elsewhere I’d probably try to pay up for one of either Kelce or Waller.

Noah Fant | DK: $4.2k, FD: $5.7k | vs. NO | GPP Preferred

Fant’s 17.9% target share ranks 9th among TEs this season. While the Saints are a fairly tough match-up and it’s hard to trust anyone on this anemic Broncos offense, New Orleans does permit the 12th most FPPG to TEs and Denver could likely be passing quite a bit here.

Austin Hooper | DK: $3.8k, FD: $5.1k | @ JAX | Cash & GPP

If you’re not spending up on one of the studs, I actually don’t hate Hooper as a spend down option even in cash. The Jaguars have allowed eight touchdowns to tight ends this season -- tied for the most in the league with the Falcons and Chargers. They’re also allowing an average of 14.5 DKFP and12.4 FDFP to tight ends. In the wasteland that is the tight end position, if Hooper can come close to those averages, I’d gladly take it.

Defenses to Consider

D/ST is a very volatile “position” and shouldn’t take up too much time in your DFS research. However, here are two D/STs I’m on board with this week.

Safer but more expensive option:

New Orleans Saints | DK: $3.8k, FD: $4.8k | @ DEN

This Saints defense is playing with some fire lately after scoring at least 14 FP in three straight games while allowing a total of 25 points in that span. Denver’s 18.8 implied points is the second lowest total on the slate and they’re surrendering an average of 10.0 FP to opposing DSTs this season.

Riskier but more affordable option:

Las Vegas Raiders | DK: $2.3k, FD: $3.6k | @ ATL

The Falcons could be without several key offensive players and they just gave up eight sacks to the Saints last week. The Raiders don’t possess a great defense by any means, but if you’re punting the ‘position’ I could see them squeaking out around 6-8 points.

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Once again, if you have any questions DM me on Twitter @Ryan_Humphries or tag me in the LineStar NFL chat using @N1TRO. Good luck this week!

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