By: @Ryan_Humphries

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I hope everyone enjoyed their Thanksgiving holiday! We’ve arrived to week 12 in the NFL and, due to the three-game Turkey Day slate, two teams being on bye (Cardinals & Chiefs), and the two upcoming SNF/MNF primetime games, we’ll be left with a 10-game Sunday main slate. This is setting up to be one of the most closely contested NFL Sundays of the season as 8-of-10 games currently carry a spread of three points or less! Should be a fun one so let’s get it!

Note: I'm switching things up a bit this week. Instead of highlighting a couple of “games to target” I’ll be replacing that with a “Stacks & Bring Backs” section towards the end of the newsletter. In this section, I’ll be highlighting some stacks to consider for this slate and, in some examples, a player in that same game to “bring it back with”.

Main slate match-ups with implied point totals and spreads:

Quarterbacks to Consider

Potential quarterback targets at high/mid/low price points.

Tom Brady, TB | DK: $7.6k, FD: $8.2k | @ IND

I don’t love the idea of spending up at the QB position on this slate but you can’t really go wrong targeting Brady. Sure, the Bucs have struggled on the road this season, but it’s hard to imagine Brady completely bombing in this spot. The Colts are much easier to pass against (20th in pass DVOA) than run against (2nd in rush DVOA). The Bucs will still be without Antonio Brown (ankle) but Brady’s weapons are otherwise at full strength. The Colts have proven to be talented enough offensively to hang with a high-powered offense like Tampa Bay. As such, Indy will only be three-point underdogs in a game that possesses the highest total on the slate (53 O/U).

Cam Newton, CAR | DK: $5.6k, FD: $8k | @ MIA

Much like last week, Cam Newton is priced much more generously on DraftKings, so that’s where I’d look to target him. On FanDuel, it would seem much safer to just scrounge up the extra $200 to get up to Brady… or if you’re looking for a cheap QB, consider Jimmy Garoppolo (FD: $6,500).

Newton put on a vintage performance in his first start of the season last week when he completed 77.8% of his passes with two touchdowns and added 10 carries for 46 yards and an additional score -- good for 26.16 DKFP. Of course, the match-up he had against Washington was about as easy as it gets. Going on the road against Miami won’t be a cakewalk, but the Dolphins have allowed the 7th most FPPG to QBs this season and mobile quarterbacks, in particular, have given them some problems as of late.

Tyrod Taylor, HOU | DK: $5.3k, FD: $7.4k | vs. NYJ

Much like Newton, Taylor is another option that is much more viable on DraftKings. But the match-up that Taylor draws on Sunday is hard to ignore. The Jets rank dead last in pass DVOA and have allowed 289.6 YPG through the air this season along with a league-worst 108.2 passer rating. The bonus with Taylor is he can provide some value with his legs and we can usually expect 20-40 yards rushing out of him most weeks.

Running Backs to Consider

Potential running back targets at high/mid/low price points.

Christian McCaffrey, CAR | DK: $9k, FD: $9.7k | @ MIA

For as long as a healthy CMC is priced under $10k, he’s going to be a strong option, particularly in cash games, regardless of match-up. The Dolphins have been stingy against the run as of late but the backs they have gone up against in the last four weeks include the likes of Michael Carter (injured mid-game), Devonta Freeman, David Johnson, and Zack Moss. I doubt Miami will be able to hold McCaffrey under 100 all-purpose yards in this game, which should include a handful of receptions and a shot at a touchdown or two.

Joe Mixon, CIN | DK: $7.5k, FD: $8k | vs. PIT

Mixon has found the endzone in seven consecutive games including twice in each of their last three. Touchdowns are not something you can count on every week, especially multi-touchdown performances. However, Mixon’s DFS salaries continue to remain in check and the Steelers are surrendering 4.9 YPC to RBs over the last four weeks. Mixon has also been targeted at least five times in three of the last five games as well, which is a nice boost to his floor.

James Robinson, JAX | DK: $6.2k, FD: $7.6k | vs. ATL

This will be one of the best match-ups Robinson has seen in weeks as Atlanta comes in allowing the 5th most FPPG to RBs, including 6.6 receptions/gm to the position. Robinson has handled an elite 74.9% of his team’s RB touches this season and Jacksonville may actually find themselves in a game script that favors the run game. Robinson has also averaged an additional five DKFP/gm at home this year.

Miles Sanders, PHI | DK: $5.1k, FD: $6.1k | @ NYG

In his first game after returning from IR, Sanders only played 36 snaps (46% snap%). However, he handled 16 carries on those 36 snaps… meaning he touched the ball on 44.4% of his on-field snaps. What is even more encouraging, he averaged 5.9 YPC against a Saints defense which ranks 1st in overall run DVOA. The Eagles will now take on the destitute Giants who rank 30th in run DVOA which has allowed the 6th most FPPG to RBs this season. Jordan Howard (knee), who played 17% of snaps last week, has been ruled out. We can expect to see Boston Scott and Kenneth Gainwell mix in on some plays, but if last week was any indication, Sanders should lead this backfield in snaps and touches.

Dontrell Hilliard, TEN | DK: $4.6k, FD: $5.5k | @ NE

This play is not for the faint of heart, but the Titans will check in as the biggest underdog on the slate this week so we can assume that there is a strong chance they’ll be playing from behind this game. Last week, Hilliard assumed the role of Titans pass-catching back Jeremy McNichols, who missed week 11 with a concussion. After Tennessee unexpectedly found themselves down big to Houston, Hilliard ended up playing 63% of snaps and caught 8-of-10 targets for 47 yards while adding seven carries for an additional 35 yards. McNichols has once again been ruled out and now their top receiver, AJ Brown, is out with a chest injury. The injuries to McNichols and Brown are added on top of Derrick Henry, Julio Jones, and Marcus Johnson who are all out for the foreseeable future. So, while it’d be a long shot to project Hilliard for double-digit targets again, the Titans are desperate for anyone who can step in as a reliable pass catcher. Hilliard will be a preferred target on DraftKings where the full PPR scoring format should work in his favor. GPP only, however.

Wide Receivers to Consider

Potential wide receiver targets at high/mid/low price points.

Deebo Samuel, SF | DK: $7.9k, FD: $8k | vs. MIN

Deebo has rapidly evolved into one of the NFL’s most dynamic offensive players. In a week 11 match-up where the 49ers were only forced to throw 22 times during a 30-10 beat down over the Jags, Samuel was a recipient of a mere two targets. However, he was given nine carries which he turned into 79 yards (9.9 YPC) and a touchdown. San Fran will now find themselves in a game that carries some serious shootout potential against Minnesota. The Vikings can do it all on offense but their defense has been unable to stop anyone, especially as of late. They’ve surrendered the most FPPG to WRs over the last month and they also rank 27th in run DVOA, which bodes well for Samuel assuming the 49ers continue to scheme him into handling a handful of carries.

Mike Evans, TB | DK: $7.2k, FD: $7.5k | @ IND

It’s a great spot for Evans to have one of his patented “boom” weeks as he runs up against a Colts secondary that has not fared well against premiere outside receivers. Evans has run 62% of his routes on the perimeter and the Colts have allowed the fifth-most FPPG to perimeter receivers, including the second-most over the last month.

Diontae Johnson, PIT | $6.6k, FD: $7.1k | @ CIN

Johnson is stuck on a fairly ho-hum Steelers offense that, until last week, had not cracked 30 points all season. However, he has been one of the most consistent mid-range DFS options weeks in and week out. Johnson has only two games without double-digit targets this season and isn’t a guy who necessarily needs a touchdown in order to return value. Johnson missed the previous meeting with the Bengals this season back in week three, but that also happened to be QB Ben Roethlisberger’s only game of the year where he threw for over 300 yards. If anything, that isn’t a bad sign heading into the week 12 match-up.

Michael Pittman Jr., IND | DK: $5.6k, FD: $6.6k | vs. TB

Perhaps it’s a cheeky buy-low spot for Pittman following a week where Jonathan Taylor ab-so-lute-ly dominated the Bills which led to only 20 pass attempts from Carson Wentz. Pittman was the target on five of those passes but only caught two for 23 yards. Regardless, it would seem like a stretch that the Colts find themselves up big on another high-level opponent in back-to-back weeks. Pittman possesses a team-high 23.6% TGT% including a juicy 28.9% redzone TGT%. The Bucs defense has been much more forgiving through the air than on the ground all season, so don’t be surprised if we see another WR1 performance from Pittman this week.

Odell Beckham Jr., LAR | DK: $5k, FD: $5.8k | @ GB

A safe play by no means, but the Rams are coming out of their bye week which should only benefit OBJ as he has now had some additional time to get up to speed on Sean McVay’s playbook and perhaps developed some chemistry with Matthew Stafford in practice. In his week 10 debut with the Rams, OBJ played on 27% of snaps and caught 2-of-4 targets for 18 yards. I would expect Beckham’s snap% to at least double from week 10 and possibly venture more towards the 70-80% range. Remember there is a large void to be filled in the Rams receiving game following the season-ending ACL injury to Robert Woods, sustained back in week nine.

Dez Fitzpatrick, TEN | DK: $3.2k, FD: $5k | @ NE

No AJ Brown. No Julio Jones. No Marcus Johnson. The backfield is in shambles. Someone has to catch the ball for Tennessee. Nick Westbrook-Ikhine ($4k/$5.7k) is one candidate to take over as a primary receiver, however Fitzpatrick, the rookie fourth round selection, actually led all Titans WRs in week 11 when he played 79% of snaps. He converted six targets into three receptions for 35 yards and his first career touchdown. It’s a brutal match-up against a surging Patriots D, which has allowed the 4th fewest FPPG to WRs but, at a certain point, potential volume combined with a dirt cheap DFS salary trumps a difficult match-up.

Tight Ends to Consider

Tight end targets at high/mid/low price points.

Rob Gronkowski, TB | DK: $4.4k, FD: $6.5k | @ IND

It’s an ugly week for the tight end position, but Gronk should be one of the more trustworthy options particularly at his $4,400 price tag on DraftKings. In his first full game back in action since week three, Tom Brady sent eight targets in Gronk’s direction and the big man should only get stronger as the season carries on. The Colts have had issues against tight ends throughout the year as well and have surrendered the fifth-most FPPG to the position (3rd most over their last four games).

Pat Freiermuth, PIT | DK: $4.3k, FD: $5.3k | @ CIN

Tight ends are averaging a 5.3/74.3/0.8 stat line versus the Bengals in the last four weeks which has led to the second-most FPPG. Freiermuth’s 24.6% redzone TGT% actually leads every player at the position. Even though he has taken over as the clear-cut top option at the position for the Steelers, Freiermuth saw his snap share take a bit of a hit when veteran TE Eric Ebron returned in weeks 10 and 11. Ebron played 33% and 46% of snaps in those two weeks, respectively. Ebron has now been ruled out of week 12 with a knee injury which opens up Freiermuth to seeing a snap share in the 70-80% range.

Evan Engram, NYG | DK: $3.8k, FD: $5.5k | vs. PHI

With Kyle Rudolph doubtful, Engram could be in line for a season high in snaps. Rudolph isn’t a major factor in the receiving game as his 24 targets on the season equal to just a 7.0% TGT%. But Rudolph has eaten up over a 50% snap share this season so Engram (73% snap% L4Wks) could end up being on the field for nearly every snap. The Giants did of course fire their OC Jason Garrett earlier this week, so there is no telling how exactly that will impact this offense moving forward. But, with the way they have been playing this year, it’s almost impossible for them to go anywhere but up.

Defenses to Consider

D/ST is a very volatile “position” and shouldn’t take up too much time in your DFS research. However, here are two D/STs I’m on board with this week.

Safer but more expensive option:

New England Patriots | DK: $3.9k, FD: $5k | vs. TEN

You’re paying the absolute premium here but this Pats D has been crushing everyone in their path while averaging 16.8 FPPG over their last five. Tennessee’s offense is a shell of itself right now and just got embarrassed by the Houston Texans, of all teams. While I’m almost always going to spend down at the D/ST position, if there was an RB or WR that putting up the points that the Pats D/ST has and was priced at the same exact DFS salaries, I’d be hard-pressed to not lock them in. With that said, D/ST scoring can be extremely volatile and there is never truly a “safe” play. But the Patriots will be the clear-cut spend-up option on this slate.

Riskier but more affordable options:

DK Preferred D/ST Punt

Houston Texans | DK: $2.3k, FD: $4.9k | vs. NYJ

Zach Wilson is back. They’re at home coming off of huge back-to-back games defensively. Probably too cheap on DK.

FD Preferred D/ST Punt

Cincinnati Bengals | DK: $2.7k, FD: $3.3k | vs. PIT

Bengals have a big advantage with a strong D-Line going up against a poor Steelers O-Line. They’re at home. Held Pittsburgh to 10 points back in week three.

Stacks & Bring Backs 🥞

This is a new section I’m adding in to give you some ideas for some team stacks. In some examples, I will include a “bring back” option which will be a player on the opposing team in the same game that could also benefit if the stack goes off.

QB + WR + Opp WR

QB Tom Brady, WR Mike Evans, WR Michael Pittman Jr.

QB + WR + Opp WR

QB Kirk Cousins, WR Adam Thielen, WR Deebo Samuel

QB + Two Pass Catchers (aka “Double Stack”)

QB Matthew Stafford, WR Cooper Kupp, WR Odell Beckham Jr.

RB + D/ST

RB Joe Mixon, D/ST Cincinnati Bengals

Full Team Stack - QB/RB/WR

QB Cam Newton, RB Christian McCaffrey, WR Robby Anderson

Value Team Stack

QB Tyrod Taylor, WR Brandin Cooks, RB Rex Burkhead

“Ugly Duckling Stack” | QB + WR + Opp RB

QB Matt Ryan, WR Russell Gage, RB James Robinson

Touchdown Call 🏈

James Robinson, JAX | DK: $6.2k, FD: $7.6k | vs. ATL

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Once again, if you have any questions DM me on Twitter or hit me up in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck this week!

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