Happy Thanksgiving! Let's get some quick prep in for Thursday's three-game NFL slate with some preferred DFS plays, stacks, and props to consider!

By: @Ryan_Humphries

Week 12 NFL PreSnap Podcast 🎙️

Catch Tyler Wiemann and Shannon Sommerville's run down on this Sunday's NFL DFS main slate!

Also, for anyone looking to roll out some NFL props this week, be sure to check out the info and videos at the end of this article featuring usage of LineStar's new Prop Edge+ for NFL tool. This tool can help make prop bettors some extra cash -- especially on sites like PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!

A free two-pick PrizePicks "Power Play" is posted at the end of this article as well!

Week 12 Thursday DFS Main Slate Rundown 📝

Nothing pairs better with a full stomach and a boozy tryptophan-induced haze than sinking down into the couch and tuning into some Thanksgiving Day football! So today we’ll be running through some potential DFS plays, stacks, and props to consider for the three-game Thanksgiving slate! I hope everyone enjoys the holiday with some good food, family, and friends. Just try not to get caught making last-minute alterations to your NFL lineups at the dinner table, okay?

Main slate match-ups with implied point totals and spreads:

Weather Report

All three games are indoors so no weather issues to worry about!

Quarterbacks to Consider

Potential quarterback targets at high/mid/low price points.

Dak Prescott, DAL | DK: $6.2k, FD: $8k | vs. NYG

I wouldn’t go talking anyone off of playing Josh Allen (DK: $8k, FD: $9.5k) but you do have to admit, he has not looked completely like himself recently. Perhaps the recent elbow injury is still having some lingering effects, or maybe the Bills want to lighten up on the “make Josh Allen do it all” game plan.

Either way, we’ll begin here with Dak Prescott who comes in with significantly lower DFS price tags than Allen. Dak has not necessarily “lit it up” in his four healthy games this season but he does provide the potential to finish this small slate as the best “fantasy point per dollar” QB. However, he does rank 8th in the NFL with a 67.8% comp% and has thrown for a 5.3% touchdown% (ranks 10th). The real draw here is the match-up. The Giants have been fairly solid against the pass this season, but they have allowed +59% more fantasy points to QBs when playing on the road (last nine games). Most notably, they’re going to be down several starting members in their secondary (see SIC Score/Field View below). If Dallas gets up big on the scoreboard, the game flow may hurt Dak’s upside but he should have no major issues throwing against mostly backup Giants DBs.

Jared Goff, DET | DK: $5.2k, FD: $6.9k | vs. BUF

With only six QBs on the board, the vast majority of ownership will trend toward Josh Allen and Dak Prescott. If you want to roll the dice on Kirk Cousins in primetime facing a Patriots defense that ranks 1st in pass DVOA, be my guest. I’ll pass on that option myself. It isn’t as if rostering Jared Goff gets my blood pumping either, but there are reasons to believe Goff could be a strong value play if you’re going against the grain at QB. First, he’s at home inside a domed Ford Field where he has been night and day better for fantasy purposes. He’s averaging 22.8 DKFP in five home games this season… compare that to 9.9 DKFP per game in five road games. It’s also likely that the Lions will be playing from behind which should lead to a pass-heavy game script. This Buffalo defense has also given up 681 passing yards to Jacoby Brissett and Kirk Cousins in the last two weeks so they aren’t exactly locking things down through the air.

Running Backs to Consider

Potential running back targets at high/mid/low price points.

Tony Pollard, DAL | DK: $6.6k, FD: $8.5k | vs. NYG

I’m stealing this pun from our guy sixsense in the LineStar chat… time to get a heavy helping of some Pollard greens! Zeke Elliott returned from a two-game absence last week and handled 16 touches but played just 28% of snaps. Pollard was in on 52% of snaps and was given a 15-carry, six-catch workload, which he turned into 189 yards and two scores. It’s easy to feature multiple RBs when you coast to a 40-3 win, as the Cowboys did against the Vikings last week. But it’s reasonable to assume that Pollard has shown enough in the last three weeks to at least handle the lion’s share of RB touches moving forward. Zeke isn’t going anywhere, but Pollard is simply too dynamic and efficient. The Cowboys are a better team when he’s touching the ball. The Giants allow 5.3 YPC (ranks 29th) and just gave up three touchdowns to Jamaal Williams a week ago. On top of his rushing volume, Pollard should see a fair amount of involvement as a pass catcher as well.

Rhamondre Stevenson, NE | DK: $6.4k, FD: $7.2k | @ MIN

Stevenson has been a super safe DFS investment for nearly this entire season. He has scored at least 12.9 DKFP in eight consecutive games and has five 20+ DKFP performances in that same span. He has also been targeted at least six times in the last four games, so he gets a nice floor elevation from his PPR potential. Minnesota got boat-raced by the Cowboys' running game last week, allowing a combined 57.6 DKFP to the Pollard/Zeke tandem. Damien Harris will also mix in for around 10-12 touches, but Stevenson can be trusted to continue carrying the bulk of the Patriots' RB workload. The Pats are +2.5 underdogs as well, so if they do fall behind, Stevenson has been the clear favorite as a receiver out of the backfield.

Devin Singletary, BUF | DK: $5.7k, FD: $6.9k | @ DET

Singletary notched season highs in carries (18) and rushing yards (86) in last week’s showdown in this same stadium against the Browns. He has played 73% of snaps in the last month, just barely trailing Saquon Barkley (79%) and Dalvin Cook (75%) for the slate lead among RBs. If the Bills coaching staff want to limit Josh Allen’s workload as a runner, as they did last week, then Singletary is the direct beneficiary. This is a game where the Bills likely play with a sizable lead so if Singletary pushes for another 20 touches, he stands out as a strong value RB against a Lions defense that ranks 27th in rush DVOA.

Wide Receivers to Consider

Potential wide receiver targets at high/mid/low price points.

Amon-Ra St. Brown, DET | DK: $6.6k, FD: $7.6k | vs. BUF

The massively positive home splits that Jared Goff owns this season directly transfer over to St. Brown, as you might expect. St. Brown missed the week four home date with Seattle (where the Lions put up 45 points and he would have surely gone off). But in the four home games, he has played this season, ASB has averaged 21.6 DKFP and commanded a massive 32.6% TGT%. He has seen at least nine targets in all four home games, and he’s a strong bet for 10+ targets in Thursday’s tilt against the high-powered Bills.

Gabe Davis, BUF | DK: $5.3k, FD: $7.2k | @ DET

On a three-game slate, the wide receiver position is the easiest spot where we can get contrarian with our DFS lineups. Everyone knows Stefon Diggs (DK: $8k, FD: $9.3k) is an excellent play nearly every week. Gabe Davis doesn’t own nearly as safe of a floor, but he has a tremendous ceiling and checks in with much more affordable DFS salaries. Davis owns a deep downfield 16.2-yard aDOT so he doesn’t need to rack up a ton of catches to provide a lofty fantasy score. The Lions have been susceptible to the deep pass, allowing 40% more FPPG to WRs when playing at home (last nine games).

Jakobi Meyers, NE | DK: $5.1k, FD: $6.7k | @ MIN

Mac Jones and the Patriots do not make it very easy to instill much trust in their passing game, but Meyers is about as safe as it gets in this offense. In his eight healthy games this season, Meyers has owned a team-high 24.5% TGT% and has laid claim to 32.5% of New England’s total air yards. The big plus here is the match-up. The Vikings have been torched through the air recently and have given up the 3rd most FPPG to WRs over their last four games. Meyers won’t break the bank, has a decent floor, and can put up 20+ FP in the right circumstances. 

Michael Gallup, DAL | DK: $4.6k, FD: $5.7k | vs. NYG

There’s nothing wrong with going after CeeDee Lamb (DK: $7.1k, FD: $7.9k) on this slate but I do like the idea of mixing Gallup in as well. The Giants are down both of their starting boundary cornerbacks, and Gallup has run 90% of his routes on the perimeter. Gallup’s volume hasn’t been extraordinary and he hasn’t brought down a touchdown since he made his season debut in week four. But, by three-game slate standards, Gallup’s ownership should be very low and he’s still a strong candidate to operate as the No. 2 receiving option in this Cowboys passing attack. We haven’t seen Gallup’s upside yet this season but that could change against this depleted Giants secondary.

Isaiah Hodgins, NYG | DK: $3k, FD: $5.1k | @ DAL

Hodgins is more of a play on DraftKings where he’s at the stone minimum of $3k. The Giants lost rookie WR Wan’Dale Robinson to a torn ACL last week and are in need of healthy bodies at wide receiver. Robinson played 72% of snaps before his injury last week, Darius Slayton is the de facto WR1 and played 87% of snaps. Meanwhile, Hodgins was third among Giants WRs, playing 59% of snaps in week 11. With more defensive attention heading to Slayton, Hodgins may see a decent amount of targets in this game. He’s only been targeted 11 times this season, but he has brought in nine of those -- good for an 81.8% catch%.

Tight Ends to Consider

Tight end targets at high/mid/low price points.

TJ Hockenson, MIN | DK: $5k, FD: $6.3k | vs. NE

Since being traded over from the Lions, Hockenson has seen 28 total targets in three games with the Vikings. The blowout limited his snaps last week, but he played over 90% of the snaps in his first two games in a Vikings uniform. The Patriots are also sorta sneaky bad against tight ends, allowing the 9th most FPPG to the position.

Dawson Knox, BUF | DK: $3.5k, FD: $5.5k | @ DET

The Bills bring a major 32.0 implied point total into Detroit and Knox has played a slate-high 84% of snaps in the last four weeks. Any skill position player who sees the field that much in this offense in such a terrific match-up brings ample touchdown potential to the table. The Lions have allowed the 4th most FPPG to TEs this season, including seven touchdowns, which is tied with New England for the 2nd most TDs allowed to TEs in the NFL. Last week, Knox reached season highs in targets (7), catches (7), and receiving yards (70). He’ll stroll into this slate as a solid value play.

Defenses to Consider

D/ST is a very volatile “position” and shouldn’t take up too much time in your DFS research. However, here are some D/STs I’m on board with this week.

Pay-Up D/ST: Dallas Cowboys | DK: $3.7k, FD: $5k | vs. NYG

Value D/ST: New England Patriots | DK: $3k, FD: $4.2k | @ MIN

Stacks & Bring Backs 🥞

Below are a few team/game stack ideas to consider for this slate. In some examples, I will include a “bring back” option which will feature a normal "QB + Receiver" stack along with a player from the opposing team in the same game that could also benefit should the primary "QB + Receiver" stack go off.

QB + WR/TE + Opp Receiver (Game Stack)

Josh Allen, Stefon Diggs, Amon-Ra St. Brown

QB + Two Pass Catchers (Double Stack)

Dak Prescott, CeeDee Lamb, Michael Gallup

Full Team Stack - QB/WR/RB

Josh Allen, Gabe Davis, Devin Singletary

Value Double Stack

Daniel Jones, Darius Slayton, Isaiah Hodgins

“Ugly Duckling Game Stack” | QB + WR + Opp TE

Jared Goff, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Dawson Knox

Touchdown Call 🏈

Gabe Davis, BUF | DK: $5.3k, FD: $7.2k | @ DET

Reminder: Follow @LineStarApp on Twitter and retweet the weekly Touchdown Calls tweet! Three retweeters are randomly selected and assigned a player from the TD calls between myself, @FlatTyler83, and @ShannonOnSports. If your player scores a touchdown, you’ll win your choice of cash (via PayPal) or a one-month subscription to LineStar!

PrizePicks NFL Power Play ⚡

This is a two-pick NFL "Power Play" I have over on PrizePicks. Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but these props did stand out so I'll be rolling it out with confidence! If it hits, it will return a 3x payout!

Rhamondre Stevenson MORE than 26.5 Receiving Yards

Gabriel Davis + Dawson Knox MORE than 0.5 Rush+Rec TDs

Make sure you take advantage of this Justin Jefferson free square over on PrizePicks!

🆕 Props Edge+ 🆕

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Once again, if you have any questions DM me on Twitter or hit me up in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck this week!

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