By: @Ryan_Humphries

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Nothing goes better with a full stomach and a boozy tryptophan-induced haze than sinking down into the couch and tuning into some Thanksgiving Day football! So today we’ll be running through some potential DFS plays and stacks to consider for the three-game Thanksgiving slate. I hope everyone enjoys the holiday with some good food, family, and friends. Just try not to get caught making last-minute alterations to your NFL lineups, okay?

Thanksgiving Day match-ups with implied point totals and spreads:

Quarterbacks to Consider

Potential quarterback targets at high/mid/low price points.

Josh Allen, BUF | DK: $7.8k, FD: $8.8k | @ NO

On a three-game slate, Allen is likely to command very high ownership but there is no reason to go away from him here. The Saints have been trending in the wrong direction defensively and three of the last four QBs they have faced scored 30+ DKFP (Hurts, Ryan, Brady). In that recent four-game stretch, QBs are averaging a lofty 8.9 YPA against the Saints. Josh Allen gets a good chunk of his fantasy production through his rushing ability, however he has only combined for four rush attempts in the last two weeks. Odds are that trend won’t continue and the Saints just gave up 69 yards on the ground to Jalen Hurts last week, including three rushing scores. Perhaps we get another ceiling game out of Allen in this Thanksgiving Day primetime match-up.

Andy Dalton, CHI | DK: $5.5k, FD: $7.2k | @ DET

With Justin Fields sidelined with a ribs injury, Dalton will draw his first official start since week two. It’s a solid spot for Dalton to find some success in as the Lions check in with the 28th ranked defense in terms of pass DVOA and their 7.8 YPA allowed ranks 31st, ahead of only the New York Jets (8.0 YPA). “Fire Matt Nagy” chants are breaking out all over Chicago and there are even some rumors that the Bears will be firing Nagy after this week’s game. So there are some off-the-field distractions heading into this match-up and switching QBs with different play styles on a short week is never easy. But if you’re not spending up at the position, Dalton has a decent enough shot to return a 20-ish FP performance.

Running Backs to Consider

Potential running back targets at high/mid/low price points.

D’Andre Swift, DET | DK: $7.3k, FD: $8k | vs. CHI

The win-less Lions extended their streak of scoring under 20 points for the ninth consecutive game in week 11. Swift has been one of the few bright spots on the offensive side of the ball and his DFS salaries have now hit season highs. Given Detroit’s inability to move the ball effectively without the help of Swift, expect Chicago to put a great deal of focus towards containing him, especially if the Lions are forced to start Tim Boyle again, who went 15-of-23 for 77 yards and two INTs in his NFL debut last week. Swift will not be a super-safe play and he’ll likely need to score one of Detroit’s rare touchdowns to return value here. But, on a three-game slate, he’s probably the preferred spend-up option over a banged up Zeke.

David Montgomery, CHI | DK: $6k, FD: $7.5k | @ DET

Montgomery, now fully healthy, will draw the best match-up he has seen since week four against this same Lions defense. In that game, Monty handled 23 carries and racked up 106 yards and two TDs, and, considering Detroit has gone on to allow the 3rd most FPPG to opposing RBs, that wouldn’t seem to be a fluke performance. In many situations, QBs who are capable of running the ball effectively can help open things up for their RBs. But you could argue that Justin Fields was negatively affecting Montgomery’s rushing upside when they were on the field together. Now that Dalton is under center, Montgomery will assume the role as the workhorse ball carrier and perhaps eclipse 20+ touches for the first time since that week four game against the Lions.

Tony Pollard, DAL | DK: $5.6k, FD: $5.9k | vs. LV

It’s never a safe investment going after a backup RB and it’s pretty much been a two-thirds vs. One-third split between Zeke (67.9% snap%) and Pollard (33.2% snap%) this season. But we could see Pollard’s role increase in the receiving game due to the absence of Amari Cooper (C19) and, likely, CeeDee Lamb (concussion). Lamb hasn’t officially been ruled out at the time of this writing t it’s always an uphill battle when it comes to clearing the NFL’s concussion protocol on a short week. In college at Memphis, Pollard was utilized more as a receiver than a running back, though he was highly effective in both roles. On the ground, Pollard has averaged 5.5 YPA (4th among NFL RBs) and has brought in 25-of-27 targets for 224 yards (9.0 YPR). He’s capable of breaking off chunk yardage and big plays but working behind Zeke has hindered his fantasy upside. It’s not a guarantee, but perhaps we’ll see Pollard in on closer to 50% of snaps including some scenarios where he’s utilized as a wide receiver while Zeke remains in the backfield.

Tony Jones Jr., NO | DK: $4k, FD: $5k | vs. BUF

Alvin Kamara (knee) has already been ruled out for this game and Mark Ingram II (knee) is considered to be very questionable to play as well after turning in two limited practices and one DNP this week. If Ingram can’t go, Tony Jones Jr. would be the next man up in the backfield rotation. Jonathan Taylor made this Bills defense look like Swiss cheese this past Sunday, though they’re usually going to be more stout than that. Regardless, perhaps this isn’t as brutal of a match-up as previously thought, but I’m certainly not putting many running backs on the same pedestal as JT. However, if Ingram does get ruled out, there is plenty of potential volume for Jones Jr. to handle in this game and he’s obviously priced among the cheapest RBs on this slate.

Wide Receivers to Consider

Potential wide receiver targets at high/mid/low price points.

Michael Gallup, DAL | $5.9k, FD: $6.5k | vs. LV

Gallup could have WR1 volume heading his way on Thursday with Cooper 100% out and Lamb more than likely to be ruled out. Even if it is only Cooper who is out, that would be a similar situation to last week when Gallup was targeted 10 times. Gallup will be an unrestricted free agent after this season and many believe he is due for a handsome contract and a larger workload on another team as he looks to step into more of a primary receiving role. With all eyes watching this Thanksgiving, I’m sure Gallup will be greatly motivated to succeed in this spot and show teams that he is worth the future investment.

Darnell Mooney, CHI | DK: $5.7k, FD: $6.8k | @ DET

The number one thing we hope to get out of our WRs is target volume, and Mooney should not be in short supply of that against the Lions. After missing week 11 with a hamstring injury, Allen Robinson II heads into Thursday as “doubtful” to play. In his absence, Mooney saw an insane 16 targets head his way. While he caught just five of those targets, they went for 121 yards and a touchdown. The switch from Justin Fields to Andy Dalton at QB should not be an issue, and may very well be an upgrade, considering Mooney’s 60-yard TD reception last week came from a Dalton deep pass.

Emmanuel Sanders, BUF | DK: $4.8k, FD: $5.8k | @ NO

The Bills No.1 WR, Stefon Diggs, is a likely candidate to draw shadow coverage from Marshon Lattimore on the majority of his routes. In previous shadow scenarios this season, Lattimore has held top-flight WRs like Davante Adams, DK Metcalf, Mike Evans, DeVonta Smith, and Terry McLaurin to floor performances. So, that may open things up for Emmanuel Sanders who will draw more advantageous coverage from Paulson Adebo and Bradley Roby. It has been a while before Sanders has popped off with a nice game, but he is the deep threat in this offense (16.6-yard aDOT) and just needs a couple of big plays to return value in this spot. Aside from receivers who have been running up against Lattimore, the rest of this Saints defense has been allowing a ton of production to opposing WRs (9th most FPPG allowed).

Cedrick Wilson, DAL | DK: $3.5k, FD: $5.6k | vs. LV

With Cooper and Lamb accounting for over 40% of the target share in this Dallas offense, other receiving threats have to get a noticeable bump besides the guys already mentioned. Wilson is cheap, especially on DK, and should be in line for a 60-90% snap share on Thursday. As long as Lamb is indeed ruled out, Wilson is a good bet to receive 6-to-8 targets while mostly working out of the slot.

Tight Ends to Consider

Tight end targets at high/mid/low price points.

Darren Waller, LV | DK: $6.4k, FD: $7.3k | @ DAL

Following the Raiders week eight bye, Waller has brought in 18-of-26 targets for 232 yards in their last three games. With only two TDs on the season, you have to imagine that some positive TD regression is due and I’m sure many who rostered Waller in week 11 were punching air whenever No. 2 tight end Foster Moreau brought in a 19-yard score against the Bengals. The Raiders are short on reliable pass catchers these days and Derek Carr’s trusty chain mover and redzone target, Hunter Renfrow, has a difficult match-up against Cowboys slot CB Jourdan Lewis (DAL - least FPPG allowed to slot WRs). It could certainly be another big week for Waller in a game where Las Vegas projects to play from behind as eight point underdogs.

Nick Vannett, NO | DK: $2.5k, FD: $4.2k | vs. BUF

Saints TE Adam Trautman was finally beginning to break out but he is now possibly out for the remainder of the season due to a knee injury he sustained in week 11. Vannett made his season debut in week 11 and ended up second among Saints TEs in snaps (18 snaps) after Trautman (44 snaps) went down. All signs point towards Vannett being the primary receiving TE so he’ll make some sense as a complete punt play at the position.

Defenses to Consider

D/ST is a very volatile “position” and shouldn’t take up too much time in your DFS research. However, here are two D/STs I’m on board with this week.

Chicago Bears | DK: $3k, FD: $5k | @ DET

More of a play on DK. The Bears defense has looked stout in back-to-back games and will now take on either Tim Boyle, coming off of a 77-yard performance, or a banged up Jared Goff, who has done nothing to impress this season. Opposing D/STs are averaging over 10 FP against the Lions in their last four games.

On FanDuel, I’d probably take the $1,000 in savings and roll with the Dallas Cowboys at home versus a struggling Derek Carr. I don’t completely hate punting the Lions D/ST ($2.4k) on DraftKings either.

Touchdown Call 🏈

Darnell Mooney, CHI | DK: $5.7k, FD: $6.8k | @ DET

Once again, if you have any questions DM me on Twitter or hit me up in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck this week!

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