Buckle in for another wild NFL Sunday with a 12-game main slate on tap!

By: @Ryan_Humphries

Week 13 NFL PreSnap Podcast 🎙️

Catch Tyler Wiemann and Shannon Sommerville's run down on this Sunday's NFL DFS main slate!

Also, for anyone looking to roll out some NFL props this week, be sure to check out the info and videos at the end of this article featuring usage of LineStar's new Prop Edge+ for NFL tool. This tool can help make prop bettors some extra cash -- especially on sites like PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!

A free two-pick PrizePicks "Power Play" is posted at the end of this article as well!

Week 13 DFS Main Slate Rundown 📝

One of the juiciest NFL slates in recent memory rolls around in week 13 and we have quite a bit to dig into. Advantageous match-ups, injury impacts, locating high-scoring game environments... the list goes on! Let's have some fun and make some cheddar while we're at it!

Main slate match-ups with implied point totals and spreads:

Weather Report

As a reminder, weather plays less of a factor in football than it does in other sports but it is still worth making note of any games that could experience wet conditions, high winds, and/or frigid, snowy conditions.

The forecasts can always change so, as always, run a final weather check closer to kickoff!

GB @ CHI (1:00 ET, 44.5 O/U): 15 mph winds with 25-30 mph gusts. Cold temps in the mid-30s. No major impacts outside of some deep passes and the kicking game.

MIA @ SF (4:05 ET, 46.5 O/U): Moderate chance for rain with winds around 10 mph.

Quarterbacks to Consider

Potential quarterback targets at high/mid/low price points.

Jalen Hurts, PHI | DK: $8k, FD: $8.8k | vs. TEN

Entering week 13, the Titans remain 1st in run DVOA so the best way to attack this defense is via the pass. This Eagles offense won’t ever abandon the run game and Hurts is still going to get his rushing numbers in. Hurts is also averaging just 28.9 pass attempts per game. With that said, opposing QBs are averaging 39.9 pass att/gm against the Titans this season (46.5 att/gm L4Gms) so we could see increased pass volume out of Hurts on Sunday. You’ll get a secure floor out of the Eagles QB this week and the match-up opens up plenty of room for a potential ceiling game.

Joe Burrow, CIN | DK: $6.9k, FD: $8.3k | vs. KC

This AFC Championship re-match boasts a slate-high 53 O/U, a close spread (KC -2), and has the potential to be one of the most entertaining games of the season, so we’ll want some pieces here. Joe Burrow will look to go toe-to-toe with Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs’ high-powered offense and the Bengals will host this highly anticipated showdown. In four home games this season, Burrow is averaging 328.0 YPG through the air with a 70.8% comp% and he has tacked on 20.5 YPG at home on the ground as well. And for the first time since week seven, Burrow should have his full complement of wide receivers available with superstar Ja’Marr Chase (hip) trending toward suiting up. I will say, both defenses in this game have been quite stingy against the pass in recent weeks so it wouldn’t surprise me if the under hits with a sort of 23-20 final score. However, the strong shootout potential keeps Burrow firmly on the GPP radar.

Jared Goff, DET | DK: $5.3k, FD: $6.8k | vs. JAX

I went back and forth on who to highlight as the cheap QB play this week. Trevor Lawrence (DK: $5.9k, FD: $7.5k) looks very intriguing on the other side of this game, but he’s gaining a touch too much ownership for my liking. Still, I don’t mind him against Detroit’s soft secondary. I also considered highlighting Jets franchise QB Mike White ($5.4k, FD: $6.9k) but, even against an awful Vikings pass defense, I’m not sure we can count on back-to-back ceiling games. Still… White is worth some GPP exposure.

So we’ll land here on Jared Goff who has a few things working in his favor this week. First, he’s at home where he is averaging 121% more fantasy points than on the road this season. He has a 15:3 TD:INT ratio in his six home games compared to a 2:4 TD:INT ratio in five road games. Secondly, he draws a strong match-up against a Jags defense that ranks 30th in pass DVOA and has allowed the 3rd most FPPG to QBs over their last four games. Finally, rookie WR Jameson Williams, who was the No. 12 overall pick in this year’s draft, is set to make his NFL debut. Between Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jameson Williams, Jared Goff has an uber-talented young receiving duo at his disposal. These Lions' home games tend to turn into high-scoring shootouts and this looks like another match-up that could produce a final combined score well beyond 50 points.

Running Backs to Consider

Potential running back targets at high/mid/low price points.

Nick Chubb, CLE | DK: $8k, FD: $9.6k | @ HOU

The biggest NFL storyline of the week surrounds the return of Deshaun Watson who hasn’t played an NFL snap in over 700 days amid numerous sexual assault allegations. However, I’m far more interested in what Chubb has to offer this week as it pertains to DFS. We’ve utilized RBs against this awful Texans run defense (most FPPG allowed to RBs) all season and now they’ll have to contend with one of the league’s best. Chubb makes for a tremendous floor play and brings a 30+ FP ceiling to lineups as well. Nothing against what Jacoby Brissett did as a fill-in, but the scary thing is that Chubb is likely going to face fewer stacked boxes now that defenses have to respect the pass more with Watson at the helm.

Josh Jacobs, LV | DK: $7.9k, FD: $9.5k | vs. LAC

If you had Jacobs in your lineups last week, congrats on the cash. The man combined for over 300 yards of offense and two TDs while touching the ball 39 (!!!) times. Those 39 touches translated to a 50.7% touch%, which easily led all week 12 RBs. It was also his seventh game this season where he had a touch% over 50%, which is simply incredible usage. He is listed as questionable this week with a calf injury but all signs point toward him suiting up on Sunday. But, just in case, make sure you have a backup plan in place in case he is a surprise scratch for this 4:25 ET kick-off. Assuming he plays without limitations, he draws a superb match-up against the Chargers (29th in rush DVOA, 4th most FPPG allowed to RBs).

Dameon Pierce, HOU | DK: $5.9k, FD: $6.5k | vs. CLE

After a couple of back-to-back dud performances against Washington (4th in rush DVOA) and Miami (12th in rush DVOA), Pierce finds himself in a strong bounce-back spot against Cleveland’s 31st-ranked run defense. This is an ugly and ineffective Texans offense but Pierce has been the lone bright spot this season and there is a strong chance they’ll return to handing him a heavy workload. Pierce has impressed mightily this season and ranks 6th among NFL RBs in yards after contact per attempt and 3rd in broken tackles per attempt.

Kyren Williams, LAR | DK: $5.2k, FD: $5.5k | vs. SEA

What a miserable year for the defending Super Bowl champs. Nothing has gone right, especially on the offensive side, but that also means any and all Rams players will check in with very low ownership. It’s a risky play, but Kyren Williams played 70% of the snaps last week, handled 14 touches, and seems to be the favored lead option over the much-maligned Cam Akers. He also draws a juicy match-up against the Seahawks, who have allowed the 2nd most FPPG to RBs this season. It’s a GPP play only, but Kyren Williams has a notable chance to return big value on these low DFS salaries.

Zonovan Knight, NYJ | DK: $4.6k, FD: $5.8k | @ MIN

Michael Carter (ankle) is listed as doubtful this week so a sizable workload could be in line for Zonovan Knight for a second consecutive week. Knight, an undrafted rookie, was elevated from the practice squad ahead of last week’s game while James Robinson was a notable healthy scratch. Knight ended up leading the Jets backfield in snap share (48% overall -- 75% after Carter was injured) and touches (17). The now 7-4 Jets were in search of an offensive spark heading into week 12. They found it with QB Mike White and they may have something brewing with Knight out of the backfield as well. I wouldn’t count on him to handle a full workload since Ty Johnson and James Robinson should be in the backfield mix as well. But Knight is the odds-on favorite to lead in Jets RB touches and snaps against a Vikings defense that has allowed the 5th most FPPG to RBs over the last four weeks.

Wide Receivers to Consider

Potential wide receiver targets at high/mid/low price points.

Davante Adams, LV | DK: $8.7k, FD: $8.6k | vs. LAC

You really can’t beat the sort of target volume that Adams is seeing lately. With Darren Waller and Hunter Renfrow still riding the IR, this Raiders offense is massively centered around Josh Jacobs in the run game and Davante Adams in the passing game. Over the last four games, Adams leads the NFL in targets (55 total, 13.8 TGT/Gm), target share (37.9%), receptions (33), receiving yards (487), and he’s tied for second in receiving touchdowns (5). The Chargers are typically quite tough against WRs (8th fewest FPPG allowed) but volume reigns supreme and Adams did light LAC up with a 10-141-1 receiving line on 17 targets back in week one.

AJ Brown, PHI | DK: $7.8k, FD: $8.1k | vs. TEN

We’ve gotta love this spot for AJ Brown for all of the same reasons mentioned above with Jalen Hurts in the QB section. But to reiterate, you attack this Titans' defense through the air, not on the ground, and no other team has been passed on more than Tennessee this season. To state the obvious, AJ Brown should directly benefit from the expected boost to Hurts’ passing volume. The Eagles should have no issues moving the ball down the field and once they get into the redzone, AJ Brown’s target share jumps to a massive 36.1%. Also, feel free to inject the revenge narrative into this play. AJ Brown makes the cut as my touchdown call of the week.

Keenan Allen, LAC | DK: $6.5k, FD: $7.7k | @ LV

The Justin Herbert to Keenan Allen connection is typically a reliable one but injury issues have kept this duo from flourishing this season. However, Allen just logged an 89% snap% last week and is entering his third game in a row without an injury designation; if there were any limitations on him during the last couple of games, they should be long gone by now. Allen has primarily run out of the slot (63% slot%) and he’ll be facing a Raiders secondary that has allowed the most FPPG to slot WRs this season. Furthermore, with no Mike Williams (ankle) available this week, Allen has a realistic shot at a 10+ target workload in a game that has plenty of high-scoring potential.

Christian Kirk, JAX | DK: $6.3k, FD: $7.5k | @ DET

Last week was the first time this season that Trevor Lawrence had a solid fantasy day and Kirk didn’t. Usually, these guys are directly correlated, which seems like an obvious statement, but not all QB/WR duos share the type of fantasy correlation that Lawrence and Kirk have this season. With that being said, Kirk still saw nine targets from Lawrence last week, it just wasn’t an efficient day as Kirk caught only four passes for 46 yards. Expect better results this week in what projects to be a bit of a track meet. The Lions have given up the 2nd most FPPG to WRs this season and the 3rd most yards per pass completion.

Garrett Wilson, NYJ | DK: $5.3k, FD: $6.6k | @ MIN

Wilson will be a trendy value pick this week after he displayed some strong rapport with Mike White last week. Against Chicago, Wilson caught 5-of-8 targets for 95 yards and two touchdowns while owning a team-high 33.5% share of the team’s total air yards. We can’t bank on another two touchdown catches but, hey, maybe it happens against this awful Vikings pass defense (27th in pass DVOA). No matter what, the extremely low floor that Garrett Wilson had with Zach Wilson at QB should be a thing of the past.

Skyy Moore, KC | DK: $3.1k, FD: $5.3k | @ CIN

Moore stands out as a potential punt play on DraftKings where he is $100 above the WR minimum. Kadarius Toney has already been ruled out and Mecole Hardman remains on the IR so there is some opportunity to be had among the Chiefs’ WR corps. Moore has now caught 5-of-6 targets in back-to-back weeks -- the five receptions last week represented a team-high despite Moore only playing 48% of snaps.

Tight Ends to Consider

Tight end targets at high/mid/low price points.

George Kittle, SF | DK: $5k, FD: $6.2k | vs. MIA

Kittle is the first player from this to be mentioned in this week’s newsletter but this is a game that could produce some big individual fantasy scores. Attacking Miami with opposing tight ends has been a solid strategy this season. Only Arizona and Seattle have allowed more FPPG to TEs this season. Kittle has been relatively quiet in two of his last three games and there are quite a few mouths to feed in this dynamic 49ers offense. However, on top of the match-up being awesome, there is a sizable chance that Deebo Samuel (quad/questionable) will be forced to sit out this week which would further secure Kittle’s target share.

Pat Freiermuth, PIT | DK: $4.3k, FD: $5.9k | @ ATL

“Muuuuuuth” may be your man if you’re looking for a more affordable but still heavily involved tight end. It was a rather quiet four-target, three-catch, 39-yard night for Freiermuth against the Colts on Monday Night Football but that shouldn’t sway you away from him too much. Over the last five weeks, he is averaging 7.8 targets/gm and owns a team-high 22.8% TGT%. Very few NFL tight ends see that sort of target share and he has clearly been Kenny Pickett’s safety net over the last month or so. Not a bad match-up against Atlanta either. The Falcons have allowed the 10th most FPPG to TEs this season and have allowed 42% more FPPG to TEs when at home (last nine).

Hayden Hurst, CIN | DK: $3.5k, FD: $5.3k | vs. KC

The ceiling for Hurst is by no means massive. But he’s a cheap tight end that you can set and forget nearly every week because he’s rarely going to burn your lineups, like so many other cheap TEs tend to do. He has just three games this season where he has scored fewer than 7.4 DKFP and I’m fairly certain that he got injured in one of those games. There has also been some trash talk exchanged between Chiefs safety Justin Reid and Hayden Hurst this week. Nothing egregious but it’s always fun to add a little trash talk motivation narrative to our tight-end player pool, no?

Defenses to Consider

D/ST is a very volatile “position” and shouldn’t take up too much time in your DFS research. However, here are some D/STs I’m on board with this week.

Pay-Up D/ST: Baltimore Ravens | DK: $4k, FD: $4.5k | vs. DEN

Mid-Range D/ST: Washington Commanders | DK: $3.3k, FD: $4.1k | @ NYG

DraftKings Value: New York Jets | DK: $2.6k, FD: $4k | @ MIN

Stacks & Bring Backs 🥞

Below are a few team/game stack ideas to consider for this slate. In some examples, I will include a “bring back” option which will feature a normal "QB + Receiver" stack along with a player from the opposing team in the same game that could also benefit should the primary "QB + Receiver" stack go off.

QB + WR/TE + Opp Receiver (Game Stack)

Justin Herbert, Keenan Allen, Davante Adams

QB + WR/TE + Opp Receiver (Game Stack)

Trevor Lawrence, Christian Kirk, Amon-Ra St. Brown

QB + Two Pass Catchers (Double Stack)

Joe Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins

QB + Two Pass Catchers (Double Stack)

Jalen Hurts, AJ Brown, Quez Watkins

Full Team Stack - QB/WR/RB

Derek Carr, Davante Adams, Josh Jacobs

Value Team Stack

Mike White, Garrett Wilson, Zonovan Knight

“Ugly Duckling Game Stack” | QB + WR + Opp RB

Geno Smith, Tyler Lockett, Kyren Williams

Touchdown Call 🏈

AJ Brown, PHI | DK: $7.8k, FD: $8.1k | vs. TEN

Reminder: Follow @LineStarApp on Twitter and retweet the weekly Touchdown Calls tweet! Three retweeters are randomly selected and assigned a player from the TD calls between myself, @FlatTyler83, and @ShannonOnSports. If your player scores a touchdown, you’ll win your choice of cash (via PayPal) or a one-month subscription to LineStar!

PrizePicks Sunday NFL Power Play ⚡

This is a two-pick NFL "Power Play" I have over on PrizePicks. Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but these props did stand out so I'll be rolling it out with confidence! If it hits, it will return a 3x payout!

Nick Chubb MORE than 18.5 Fantasy Score

Keenan Allen MORE than 62.5 Receiving Yards

🆕 Props Edge+ 🆕

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Once again, if you have any questions DM me on Twitter or hit me up in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck this week!

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