By: @Ryan_Humphries

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Another 11-game NFL Sunday main slate is waiting on deck as we enter the final third leg of the regular season! This week 13 main slate brings forth quite a bit of blowout potential as 6-of-11 games feature a spread of a touchdown or more. Will some underdogs take over or are we in for a lopsided Sunday? Time will tell but, for DFS purposes, there are quite a few injuries at every skill position that will be opening up extra opportunities for some other guys on the roster to excel. The area with the most injury impacts this week rests upon the running back position so we’ll have plenty of interesting decisions to make there this week. Alright, let’s dive right into some week 13 players to consider!

Main slate match-ups with implied point totals and spreads:

Quarterbacks to Consider

Potential quarterback targets at high/mid/low price points.

Matthew Stafford, LAR | DK: $7.3k, FD: $7.8k | vs. JAX

The Rams should be desperate to put a stop to this three-game losing skid they have going on and a soft match-up at home against a bad Jacksonville team may be just what the doctor ordered. The Jaguars may only allow the ninth-fewest FPPG to opposing QBs but they’ve also faced the fifth-fewest pass attempts against them. The 7.5 yards per pass attempt allowed by Jacksonville is the fourth-highest average in the NFL and Stafford has averaged 38.8 att/gm at home this season. Stafford’s 39.8 att/gm over the last four games also leads all QBs on the slate. A quad injury to RB Darrell Henderson Jr. could lead to a continued heavier focus on the passing game as well. Even if Henderson plays, he likely won’t be 100% and the Rams have been hesitant to give backup RB Sony Michel too much work at times this season.

Kirk Cousins, MIN | DK: $6.5k, FD: $7.7k | @ DET

What is it with Cousins and playing in Detroit? It’s an environment in which he has excelled extremely well. Cousins’ last four games in Detroit have resulted in yardage totals of 405 (3 TDs), 337 (4 TDs), 253 (3 TDs), and 301 (2 total TDs). Dalvin Cook will miss this game due to injury and while Minnesota has one of the best backups in the league in Alexander Mattison, which they’ve had no issues feeding when Cook has been injured, it still stands to reason that Cousins could see an uptick in passing volume. Detroit has allowed the MOST yards per pass attempt (7.9) this year and Cousins of course has one of the better WR duos at his disposal with Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen. When building a Cousins stack or double stack, those two WRs allow for things to be extremely straightforward.

Derek Carr, LV | DK: $6k, FD: $7.5k | vs. WAS

It’s another week where it may be worth picking on this Washington pass defense. While they’ve certainly improved as of late, I’m not ready to be sold on them just yet. Washington has allowed an average of 27.0 DKFP/26.4 FDFP per game to QBs when playing on the road this season and Carr is averaging over 300 YPG in his six home games. He won’t have top TE Darren Waller at his disposal but that should make picking what options to stack along with him a bit clearer.

Running Backs to Consider

Potential running back targets at high/mid/low price points.

Jonathan Taylor, IND | DK: $9.2k, FD: $10.5k | @ HOU

Taylor’s 64 redzone rush attempts this season are nearly double that of the next closest RB on the slate (Fournette: 36). Against Houston back in week six, Taylor had 158 total yards and two touchdowns on just 15 touches. Since then, the Colts have come to their senses and have been feeding JT the rock even more… much more, in fact. The Colts offense runs directly through the legs of Taylor and, even as the most expensive option on the board, I don’t see any real reason to avoid him.

Alexander Mattison, MIN | DK: $7.6k, FD: $8.7k | @ DET

Since Dalvin Cook’s injury was known prior to DFS salaries being released for this week, we don’t get the standard “backup pricing” on Mattison, but I’m not sure that matters much. He’s a true bellcow when Cook is out and he ran wild against Detroit back in week five when Cook last missed a game (25 carries, 113 yards, 1 TD, caught 7-of-7 targets for 40 yards). While I also highlighted Cousins above in the QB section, I believe this is a game where both the Vikings pass and run game finds plenty of success. The Vikings defense has been keeping inferior opponents they’ve faced tied into close games as well and 10 of their 11 games have been decided by a single score. That should keep Minny’s offense in “score now” mode for all four quarters.

Eli Mitchell, SF | DK: $6k, FD: $7.6k | @ SEA

Mitchell has been given 27 carries in back-to-back starts (missed week 11) and should continue to have a more guaranteed workload now that Deebo Samuel (who has been working a fair amount out of the backfield) will miss this game. The Seahawks are playing on short rest after giving up 141 yards rushing, 61 yards receiving, and two TDs to Washington RBs on Monday Night Football. The Seahawks have also allowed the most receptions (7.5 per game) and receiving yards (71.5 per game) to RBs this season, so Mitchell should be in line for significant involvement on the ground and through the air.

Antonio Gibson, WAS | DK: $5.7k, FD: $6.2k | @ LV

Gibson was set up as a strong play even before receiving specialist JD McKissic was ruled out. My only concern here is if Gibson has been given TOO much work lately. While he doesn’t carry an injury designation into this game, his nagging shin injury has been considered something that won’t fully heal at any point this season. Yet, he has handled 81 total touches in the last three weeks! The Football Team has won each of those games and they’re still in the hunt for a postseason berth, so I doubt they look to go away from Gibson here. The Raiders have been giving up a high amount of production to RBs lately as well so there is nothing to dislike about this match-up. Reportedly recent practice squad call up Wendell Smallwood will operate in the “JD McKissic role" but I highly doubt he takes on the complete role that McKissic actually had. I imagine Smallwood and Gibson will split third down work while Gibson plays around 100% of early down snaps.

Miles Sanders, PHI | DK: $5.2k, FD: $6.6k | @ NYJ

Jordan Howard has already been ruled out, Boston Scott has missed practice all week due to an illness and is listed as questionable, and QB Jalen Hurts is dealing with an ankle injury and may not factor into the run game as much even if he does play. All of that may open up a more complete workload for Sanders on what is the NFL’s top rushing offense going up against a Jets run defense that has been absolutely awful (30th in-run DVOA, most FPPG allowed to RBs). It’s more of a GPP play if Boston Scott is active but there is plenty of room for upside here.

Wide Receivers to Consider

Potential wide receiver targets at high/mid/low price points.

Cooper Kupp, LAR | DK: $9k, FD: $9k | vs. JAX

I made the case for playing Matthew Stafford above so it would only make sense to throw in Kupp to lead the way here. Kupp has been held out of the endzone in three straight games yet he has still combined for 36 targets, 29 receptions, and 313 yards in that span. There is a strong trend going where if Kupp doesn’t score a TD, the Rams lose. It’s happened in all four of their losses this season. Kupp is a near lock to see double-digit targets once again and I’d be surprised if he makes it four straight games without a score. I don’t mind paying the premium for him at all this Sunday.

Diontae Johnson, PIT | DK: $6.8k, FD: $7.2k | vs. BAL

The regression of Ben Roethlisberger has limited some of Johnson’s upside but that hasn’t stopped the targets from raining in. Johnson has now had at least 13 targets in five of his last six games and he’ll be going up against a Ravens secondary that has allowed the most FPPG to perimeter WRs over the last four weeks (Johnson - 91% perimeter routes).

Mike Evans, TB | DK: $6.7k, FD: $7.4k | @ ATL

Evans has run the majority of his routes out on the left perimeter which is the side of the field that Atlanta has allowed the third-most FPPG to, including the MOST over the last four weeks. Evans will see a ton of coverage from struggling CB Fabian Moreau and in this same match-up back in week two, Evans went for 5/75/2 on nine targets. We’re still waiting on one of those patented slate-breaking performances from Evans this season… perhaps it arrives in week 13.

Hunter Renfroe, LV | DK: $5.8k, FD: $6.4k | vs. WAS

It’s a pretty obvious mid-range pick here. With no Darren Waller, there is a 20.6% overall target share left open, including a 21.6% redzone TGT%. Renfroe has been Carr’s most reliable wide receiver option all season, having caught a whopping 78% of his targets. Renfroe’s redzone TGT% also mirrors Waller’s at 21.6%. Renfroe (64% slot routes) also has a great match-up against a Washington defense which has allowed the third-most FPPG to slot WRs. He’ll be an excellent cash play on this slate.

Rondale Moore, ARI | DK: $4.7k, FD: $5.5k | @ CHI

This is a very risky pick, especially if DeAndre Hopkins returns from his hamstring injury. However, wind conditions in Chicago are expected to near 20 mph for this game with some rain in the forecast as well. Moore has been almost exclusively targeted around the line of scrimmage (1.6-yard aDOT) which normally isn’t ideal when looking for a WR who can come up with some big plays. Regardless, Moore is an electric playmaker who is capable of busting a WR screen for a huge gain. I doubt we can count on another 11 targets for Moore as he saw in week 11 before their bye. But he remains an intriguing tournament play who will check in with around 2-4% ownership.

Tight Ends to Consider

Tight end targets at high/mid/low price points.

George Kittle, SF | DK: $5.9k, FD: $6.3k | @ SEA

Without Deebo Samuel in the mix this week (which opens up a 31.9% TGT%), many people will be on WR Brandon Aiyuk (DK: $5.6k, FD: $7k). While I don’t hate the Aiyuk play at all, I believe I like rolling with Kittle a bit more at (likely) lower ownership. The salary also plays a factor as Kittle is only $300 more than Aiyuk on DK, $700 less on FD. Tight ends have averaged the eighth-most FPPG against Seattle in the last four weeks and, prior to last week, Kittle had hauled in a touchdown in each of his first three games after returning from IR.

Logan Thomas, WAS | DK: $4k, FD: $5.6k | @ LV

The Raiders bleed fantasy points to tight ends (second-most FPPG allowed) and they’re giving up an average stat line of 6.1/65.7/0.7 to the position this year. Thomas didn’t have a huge game in his return from the IR last week but he did have a touchdown called back and was targeted six times. After shaking off some rust, expect him to be a focal point of the Washington passing attack this week.

Foster Moreau, LV | DK: $2.7k, FD: $5k | vs. WAS

Moreau is more of a DraftKings play where he’ll be the unanimous favorite when it comes to punting at the position. When Darren Waller last missed a game in week seven, Moreau played on 100% of snaps and caught all six of his targets for 60 yards and a TD. We can likely expect him in on close to 100% of snaps once again and he won’t need a huge game to pay off his $2,700 DK salary.

Defenses to Consider

D/ST is a very volatile “position” and shouldn’t take up too much time in your DFS research. However, here are two D/STs I’m on board with this week.

Safer but more expensive option:

Miami Dolphins | DK: $3.3k, FD: $4k | vs. NYG

They’re really not even all too expensive and they’ve been absolutely dominant at home, scoring 17, 18, and 23 FP in their last three home games. With Daniel Jones out this week, they’ll get to face off with Mike Glennon with a banged up receiving corps and the oft-injured Saquon Barkley running behind a bad O-Line.

Riskier but more affordable options:

Chicago Bears | DK: $2.6k, FD: $3.6k | vs. ARI

I don’t love many cheap D/STs this week but the weather in this game could be a bit iffy and Kyler Murray is still listed as questionable with that ankle injury. All signs point towards him playing, but he may have some rust to shake off after not playing in a game since week eight. The Bears are also second in the NFL with 32 sacks.

Stacks & Bring Backs 🥞

This is a new section I’m adding in to give you some ideas for some team stacks. In some examples, I will include a “bring back” option which will be a player on the opposing team in the same game that could also benefit if the stack goes off.

QB + WR + Opp Receiver

QB Kirk Cousins, WR Justin Jefferson, WR Josh Reynolds

QB + WR + Opp Receiver

QB Derek Carr, WR Hunter Renfroe, TE Logan Thomas

QB + Two Pass Catchers (aka “Double Stack”)

QB Matthew Stafford, WR Cooper Kupp, WR Van Jefferson Jr.

RB + D/ST

RB Jonathan Taylor + Colts D/ST

Full Team Stack - QB/WR/RB

QB Kirk Cousins, WR Adam Thielen (or Jefferson), RB Alexander Mattison

Value Team Stack

QB Taylor Heinicke, TE Logan Thomas, RB Antonio Gibson

“Ugly Duckling Stack” | QB + WR + Opp RB

QB Mike Glennon, WR Kenny Golladay, RB Miles Gaskin

Touchdown Call 🏈

Eli Mitchell, SF | DK: $6k, FD: $7.6k | @ SEA

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