By: @Ryan_Humphries | LineStar Chat: @N1TRO

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After what was (I believe) the longest week in NFL history, we finally move ahead to week 13. An 11-game main slate is on deck for this Sunday. The slate features a few solid match-ups but there are also some legitimate blowout concerns in a few spots. Five games have one team favored by multiple scores so we’ll need to be wary of some potential of a negative game script for some players involved in those contests. I’m not seeing any notable weather concerns to worry about but as game time temperatures dip into the 30s and 40s in some areas of the country, don’t be shocked if we start to see some more involvement out of certain backfields.

Week 13 main slate match-ups:

Games to Target

Los Angeles Rams (-3) @ Arizona Cardinals | 48 O/U

Implied Points | LAR: 25.5, ARI: 22.5

Plays Per Game (Rank) | LAR: 67.8 (5th), ARI: 67.7 (6th)

Yards/Game Allowed: LAR: 297.0 (2nd), ARI: 350.5 (15th)

Plenty of postseason implications are riding on this NFC West showdown. The Rams have boasted one of the toughest defenses in the NFL and it’s unclear whether or not Kyler Murray will be limited by that right shoulder injury once again. But both offenses have managed to produce a lot of plays per game this season. More plays = more possessions = more fantasy points to go around. Always a plus. For some safer cash viable plays, I’m more interested in the Rams side of this game but rolling with some Cardinals could be a worthy approach in GPPs.

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Minnesota Vikings (-10) | 52.5 O/U

Implied Points | JAX: 21.3, MIN: 31.3

Plays Per Game (Rank) | JAX: 62.2 (25th), MIN: 60.2 (30th)

Yards/Game Allowed | JAX: 415.6 (31st), MIN: 382.0 (24th)

This game may not play at a fast pace and there are some blowout concerns to worry about. But the DFS appeal here comes from both teams featuring leaky defenses. The Jags and Vikings rank among the bottom ten in the NFL in yards allowed per game with the Jaguars ranking second to last in total defense. The Vikings are a hot team right now and they’ve posted at least 28 points in four of their last five games. Meanwhile, with Mike Glennon at the helm, Jacksonville was somewhat competent on offense last week versus Cleveland as they were able to put 25 points on the board. Highly viable DFS targets reside on both sides of this game.

Quarterbacks to Consider

Potential quarterback targets at high/mid/low price points.

Aaron Rodgers | DK: $6.8k, FD: $8.5k | vs. PHI | GPP Preferred

The Eagles have actually been pretty solid in pass defense this season and have allowed the 10th fewest FPPG to opposing QBs. However, Rodgers is simply dominating anyone and everyone. He’s completed at least 70% of his passes in four straight while averaging 28.4 FPPG and accounting for 14 total TDs. I don’t believe many people will be looking to pay up at quarterback this week so you may be able to grab some low ownership on Rodgers in tournaments.

Kirk Cousins | DK: $6.4k, FD: $7.3k | vs. JAX | Cash & GPP

I’m super hesitant to trust Cousins but we can’t ignore the fact that he’s been posting some really solid numbers. He is coming off of back-to-back games with 300+ yards and three touchdowns and draws a very favorable match-up at home. Only the Seahawks and Falcons give up more FPPG to QBs. Opposing QBs are also completing 69.8% of their passes against the Jags (2nd highest completion rate). With Dalvin Cook a little banged up with an ankle injury, perhaps Minnesota elects to rely a bit more on Cousins and the passing game, which gets Adam Thielen (C-19 list) back this week.

Mitchell Trubisky | DK: $5.4k, FD: $6.9k | vs. DET | GPP Preferred

It may not be pretty or conventional, but Trubisky can almost always bring some fantasy upside to the table. He posted 24.28 FP versus the Lions back in week one which, at these salaries, would be terrific value if his fantasy points total lands in the same ballpark on Sunday. Nick Foles (hip) is back to practicing in full and could threaten Trubisky’s playing time if the latter struggles early on, but that’s some risk you’ll have to accept if you roll out this wildcard.

Running Backs to Consider

Potential running back targets at high/mid/low price points.

Studs in Smash Spots: Dalvin Cook (DK: $9.5k, FD: $10.5k), Derrick Henry (DK: $9.2k, FD: $10k), Nick Chubb (DK: $7.7k, FD: $8.7k)

Austin Ekeler | DK: $7.1k, FD: $7k | vs. NE | Cash & GPP

It took no time at all for Ekeler to get heavily involved in this Chargers offense after being on the shelf for two months with a hamstring injury. Against the Bills, Ekeler played 72% of snaps and received 25 total touches, which included an absurd 16 targets! New England isn’t a great match-up but they’re fairly average on run defense and allow the 18th most FPPG to the position.

Wayne Gallman | DK: $5.6k, FD: $6.1k | @ SEA | GPP Preferred

There’s nothing sexy about playing Gallman just like there’s nothing sexy about his 4.0 YPC average. But the dude is getting nearly every touch out of the New York Giants backfield and has also found the endzone in each of the last five games. New York is a ten point underdog so I’d probably reserve Gallman for GPPs despite the solid floor he’s shown off.

David Montgomery | DK: $5.5k, FD: $6.2k | vs. DET | Cash & GPP

Montgomery doesn’t do any one thing incredibly well but he’s going to play just about every snap for the Bears and should be one of the few game script independent running backs available this week. He needed just 16 touches to rack up 143 combined yards against Green Bay last week and he’ll draw an excellent match-up with Detroit who gives up the most FPPG to RBs. He’ll probably be fairly popular but at these salaries, I’ll take a bite of the chalk.

Frank Gore | DK: $4.4k, FD: $5.3k | vs. LV | GPP Preferred

I guess it’s just a week for non-sexy RB picks. The 62-year-old Frank Gore won’t excite anyone who puts him in their lineups but he’ll bring strong volume to the table at a cheap DFS price. He probably gets 15-20 touches against a Las Vegas defense which allows a decent 4.3 YPC and 28.4 FPPG to RBs. If Gore happens to fall into the endzone, boom… easy value.

Wide Receivers to Consider

Potential wide receiver targets at high/mid/low price points.

Studs in Smash Spots: Davante Adams (DK: $9k, FD: $9.5k), DK Metcalf (DK: $8.2k, FD: $8.5k)

Adam Thielen | DK: $7.3k, FD: $7.8k | vs. JAX | Cash & GPP

Justin Jefferson (DK: $6.9k, FD: $7.7k) is the more trendy wide receiver to roll within this offense but Thielen should still likely lead the team in targets most weeks (29.5% target share) and he has incredible usage in the redzone. Thielen’s ten redzone touchdowns this season lead the NFL and he’s bringing in 82.4% of his redzone targets. As mentioned above with Cousins, the match-up with this Jacksonville secondary is extremely favorable for the Vikings passing attack this week.

Robert Woods | DK: $5.9k, FD: $7.1k | @ ARI | Cash & GPP

In two games versus Arizona last year, Woods drew a whopping 31 targets and caught 20 of those for 239 yards and a tuddy. Woods could draw shadow coverage from Patrick Peterson which has actually been a pretty advantageous match-up for WRs this season. I’d expect Woods to provide a solid floor/ceiling combo in this game, especially if Arizona can make this into a bit of a shootout.

Brandin Cooks | DK: $5.6k, FD: $6.5k | vs. IND | GPP Preferred

With Will Fuller out of the picture for the rest of the season due to suspension, Cooks should likely start seeing all the targets he can handle. Deshaun Watson has been on fire lately and can help Cooks succeed despite the difficult match-up with a strong Indianapolis defense (6th fewest FPPG allowed to WRs).

Michael Pittman Jr. | DK: $4.9k, FD: $5.6k | @ HOU | GPP Preferred

Hopefully the lousy box score from week 12 will keep Pittman’s ownership low this week. He only caught two passes for 28 yards but he was the most-targeted Colts wide receiver (nine targets) and paced all WRs with an 86% snap rate. Pittman runs 71% of his routes on the perimeter. Houston allows the 10th most FPPG to perimeter receivers.

Breshad Perriman | DK: $3.9k, FD: $5.9k | vs. LV | GPP Preferred

Perriman has played on 98% of snaps in each of New York’s previous three games and he has drawn 20 targets in that span. That has led to 11 catches for 234 yards and three touchdowns. I’m not sure if we can trust any Jets player for cash, but Perriman has great upside for someone who is priced down this far. He is dealing with a shoulder injury but has been getting in limited practices so I would assume he suits up this week.

Tight Ends to Consider

Tight end targets at high/mid/low price points.

Studs in Smash Spots: Darren Waller (DK: $6.1k, FD: $7k)

Evan Engram | DK: $4.9k, FD: $6k | @ SEA | Cash & GPP

Ahh, my least favorite part of these newsletters -- trying to find some tight end suggestions that won’t leave you completely high and dry. Seattle has actually been solid versus tight ends for much of the year but they did just allow a 7/75/1 stat line to Dallas Goedert (and 3/53/1 to Richard Rodgers, but that was mostly from the fluky garbage time Hail Mary play that led to my Seattle -6.5 bet losing… I’m not salty or anything). Engram has seen at least nine targets in four of the last five games so he should be able to provide a reasonable floor based on volume alone.

Jonnu Smith | DK: $4.1k, FD: $5.7k | vs. CLE | GPP Preferred

The Browns have struggled against tight ends for what seems like a decade or more and this season is no different. They permit the 4th most FPPG to the tight end position. Smith is a pretty decent bet to haul in a handful of catches and perhaps find the endzone this week but he will have to prove that he can play through a knee injury that has been holding him out of practice. It’s a situation to monitor.

Tyler Eifert | DK: $3k, FD: $4.7k | @ MIN | GPP Only

If you’re punting the position (preferably on DraftKings), Eifert may be a worthy option to roll with in GPPs. He has at least four targets in each of the last four games which isn’t exciting but it’s decent volume for a tight end in this price range. Mike Glennon also found Eifert in the endzone last week which is a good sign moving forward for his fantasy outlook.

Defenses to Consider

D/ST is a very volatile “position” and shouldn’t take up too much time in your DFS research. However, here are two D/STs I’m on board with this week.

Safer but more expensive option:

Green Bay Packers | DK: $3.8k, FD: $4.1k | vs. PHI

Carson Wentz has been sacked an NFL most 46 times this season and the guy is turning the ball over like his name is Jameis Winston. He’s thrown 15 picks this year while also losing four fumbles. Packers DST should have a solid floor here, assuming Wentz continues to take most of the starter reps.

Riskier but more affordable option:

Detroit Lions | DK: $2.5k, FD: $3.5k | vs. CHI

The Lions obviously possess a poor defense but Trubisky is no stranger to turnover problems himself. He threw two picks and fumbled three times (but only lost one) against Green Bay last week while being sacked three times. Lions DST might be worth a punt.

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Once again, if you have any questions DM me on Twitter @Ryan_Humphries or tag me in the LineStar NFL chat using @N1TRO. Good luck this week!

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