By: @Ryan_Humphries | LineStar Chat: @N1TRO

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All bye weeks are officially in the rearview and we propel into the final month-long stretch of the NFL regular season. It’s been a tricky journey getting to this point, to say the least. Let’s hope the league has minimal issues navigating the final four weeks (+ playoffs) while not having to ‘bend’ too many protocols. This week’s main slate will be loaded with 13 games to dive into and break down. I have a feeling we’ll see quite a few entertaining games throughout this week, so let’s see if we can make some dough along the way while simultaneously being a Sunday couch potato.

Games to Target

Green Bay Packers (-8) @ Detroit Lions | 55 O/U

Implied Points | GB: 31.5, DET: 23.5

Not really going out on a limb here. This indoor match-up holds the highest projected total of the week and nearly 90% of current money wagered on this game is on the over (per actionnetwork.com). At this point, everyone is pretty familiar with what this Green Bay offense is capable of. They even overtook Kansas City last week and now lead the league averaging 31.6 PPG. On the Detroit side, in the first game following the firing of head coach Matt Patricia, the Lions were able to tie a season high in points (34) under interim head coach Darrell Bevell against a very solid Bears defense. In that game, the Lions were able to rack up 460 yards of total offense behind a stout 7.0 yards per play average. Is that a one week fluke or is that more or less the sort of offensive output we should expect out of Detroit the remainder of the season? Time will tell but I do know that Bevell is very prone to opening up a down-field passing attack, but will it be enough to keep up with the Pack? This could be a solid game to target for DFS purposes this week.

Prediction: Packers roll, but Lions keep it close until late in the 4th…

GB: 36, DET: 27

Atlanta Falcons (-2.5) @ Los Angeles Chargers | 49.5 O/U

Implied Points | ATL: 26.0, LAC: 23.5

Suffice it to say, after laying a goose egg against the Pats last Sunday in a 0-45 loss, we should probably expect a little more juice out of the Chargers offense this week. Atlanta has been an odd team to figure out at times this season, but on the surface, this is looking like a quality fantasy scoring environment. The Chargers lead the NFL in plays per game (72.5) while the Falcons are not far behind in 3rd (68.8). More plays = more possessions = more fantasy scoring opportunities. This game is also a coveted indoor game (SoFi Stadium) which is another plus for the offensive upside here. The 2.5 point spread indicates a close game ahead and currently, 91% of the money wagered on this game is falling on the over. I’m with it.

Prediction: Bolts bounce back and pull off the slight upset at home…

LAC: 31, ATL: 26

Quarterbacks to Consider

Potential quarterback targets at high/mid/low price points.

Preferred Studs: Patrick Mahomes (DK: $8.1k, FD: $8.9k) @ MIA, Russell Wilson (DK: $7.9k, FD: $9k) vs. NYJ, Aaron Rodgers (DK: $7.5k, FD: $9.1k) @ DET

Kyler Murray | DK: $7.2k, FD: $8.1k | @ NYG | GPP Preferred

Probably a good time to cash in on a low-owned Kyler Murray in GPPs. He’s coming off of the worst three week stretch of the season, so DFS interest will likely be at a season-low. But we should recall, he had two weeks on the road against Seattle and New England in which a shoulder injury was very likely affecting his play. It may have still been an issue last week against the Rams, but that’s a difficult match-up for any QB in the league even when healthy. The Giants defense is actually fairly underrated and is giving up the 6th fewest FPPG to QBs this season, so this won’t be a cakewalk for Murray. However, for the first nine games of the season, Murray was a near-lock for 25+ FPPG and has shown off a 40+ FP ceiling. You don’t have to go overboard here, but I imagine if you roster Kyler in even 15% of GPP lineups, you’ll likely be double the field in terms of exposure.

Ryan Tannehill | DK: $6.7k, FD: $7.9k | @ JAX | Cash & GPP

The beast that is Derrick Henry will always take away some TD upside from Tannehill but I also think the Titans are capable of dropping a 40 burger on the Jags this week, so there could be plenty of production to go around here. If anything, Tannehill should bring a super solid floor to the table here, and back in week two, he needed just 24 pass attempts to throw four touchdowns and score 26.76 FP. The Jaguars are just so bad against the pass -- they’re allowing the 4th most FPPG to the position as well as a league worst 8.0 yards per pass attempt.

Jalen Hurts | DK: $5.1k, FD: $6.6k | vs. NO | GPP Only

This is a super difficult match-up for Hurts to be making his first start as an NFL QB (NO 3rd fewest FPPG allowed to QBs) but Hurts’ rushing upside alone is enough to draw some interest for DFS purposes. There is also the threat that Carson Wentz re-enters his role as Philly’s QB if Hurts struggles early, but I’d be willing to throw Hurts out there in a lineup or two. GPP only, obviously. If you want a cheap QB who is priced the same as Hurts on both sites, Mike Glennon makes sense as a guy who should get you 15-20 FP -- possibly even cash viable if you want to load up on stud RBs/WRs/Travis Kelce.

Running Backs to Consider

Potential running back targets at high/mid/low price points.

Preferred Studs: Derrick Henry (DK: $8.7k, FD: $9.6k) @ JAX, Aaron Jones (DK: $7.6k, FD: $8.7k) @ DET

Austin Ekeler | DK: $7k, FD: $7.5k | vs. ATL | GPP Preferred

Nothing worked for this offense last week, mark it up as an outlier. Ekeler still handled eight carries and saw nine targets while playing 60% of snaps. Expect that to be about the worst case scenario for the versatile back for the remainder of the season. Though Atlanta is sneaky good against RBs (4th fewest FPPG) but Ekeler is a worthwhile GPP pivot away from other guys priced around him.

David Montgomery | DK: $6.5k, FD: $6.6k | vs. HOU | Cash & GPP

If you’re an NFL running back in 2020, you literally cannot ask for a better three week stretch of match-ups like the one David Montgomery has gotten. Green Bay (week 12), Detroit (week 13), and Houston have been the three defenses that have given up the most FPPG to RBs this season. He’ll be very popular but I’ll take a bite of the chalk for a third consecutive week.

Mike Davis | DK: $6.4k, FD: $6.8k | vs. DEN | GPP Preferred

Christian McCaffrey (shoulder/thigh) had been trending towards the wrong side of ‘questionable’ over the last couple of days and is now officially listed as ‘doubtful’. In CMC’s absence, Mike Davis hasn’t really put up a strong fantasy performance since week five so it’s worth being a bit hesitant here. However, Denver is really struggling to contain RBs lately (30.5 DKFP per game allowed last four games). Carolina may also be without some of its primary pass catchers as DJ Moore and Curtis Samuel are both currently on the COVID-19/reserve list. If one or both of those guys can’t go on Sunday, expect an additional boost to Davis’ receiving upside.

Myles Gaskin | DK: $5.6k, FD: $6k | vs. KC | Cash & GPP

The game script against the Chiefs may negatively affect Gaskin, but he is still likely in line for a heavy 20-ish touch workload, especially if backfield running mates Salvon Ahmed, Matt Breida, and DeAndre Washington are all ruled out again. In this range, the volume is about all you can ask for and very few guys priced around him have the 20+ touch upside that Gaskin has here. If all of those aforementioned RBs are ruled out, I’d also look at Lynn Bowden Jr. as a bare minimum $3,000 PPR option on DraftKings.

JD McKissic | DK: $4.9k, FD: $5.3k | @ SF | DraftKings Preferred

With Antonio Gibson (toe) doubtful this week, you have to respect McKissic’s crazy high-volume role in the receiving game. McKissic has garnered 10+ targets in three of Washington’s last five games and it wouldn’t be a shock to see that trend continue this week. For obvious reasons, he’ll be a preferred target on DraftKings where full PPR scoring boost McKissic’s floor and ceiling.

Wide Receivers to Consider

Potential wide receiver targets at high/mid/low price points.

Preferred Studs: Davante Adams (DK: $9.3k, FD: $9.6k) @ DET, DK Metcalf (DK: $8.4k, FD: $8.6k) vs.NYJ, Keenan Allen (DK: $7.7k, FD: $8.5k) vs. ATL

DeAndre Hopkins | DK: $7.6k, FD: $8.2k | @ NYG | GPP Preferred

Not the safest investment but if we’re expecting a bounce back week for Kyler Murray, Hopkins will be a major reason why it happens. It’s a pricey contrarian stack to roll with, but if it hits then this Murray + Nuk duo will be very low-owned. If you’re not playing Murray, I’d probably look to go with one of the other stud WRs listed above if you’re spending up at the position. I’m really only interested in the contrarian GPP aspect of the complete Cards stack.

Adam Thielen | DK: $7k, FD: $7.7k | @ TB | Cash & GPP

Justin Jefferson (DK: $7.4k, FD: $7.8k) is the trendier pick and no doubt he’s been crushing it, but his emergence hasn’t really been much of a negative for Thielen. If anything, Jefferson is opening things up more for Thielen to continue operating as a go-to PPR stud. Thielen is also a monster in the redzone -- his 11 redzone TDs lead the entire NFL. The Bucs secondary seems to be in disarray as their 57.2 FPPG allowed to WRs over the last four games is the highest fantasy total on the slate in that span.

Robby Anderson | DK: $6.2k, FD: $6.5k | vs. DEN | Cash* & GPP

This play is slightly dependent on the status of both DJ Moore and Curtis Samuel -- both guys who are currently on the COVID-19/reserve list. If one or both of those guys are out, Anderson looks like a great mid-range play against an above average, but not lockdown, Broncos secondary. Anderson leads the Panthers already with a 26.4% target share but the looks would obviously increase if DJ Moore (23.2% target share) and/or Curtis Samuel (17.5%) are unable to suit up come Sunday. *If both guys play, Anderson is more of a GPP target for me.

Corey Davis | DK: $5.7k, FD: $6.8k | @ JAX | Cash & GPP

After a monstrous 11/182/1 day, this may seem a tad ‘point chase-y’ but I wouldn’t look at it that way. Davis is finally showing off why the Titans drafted him with the 5th overall pick in 2017. He’ll now draw one of the juiciest match-ups a WR could ask for (JAX 5th most FPPG to WRs) and the Titans other top receiver, AJ Brown, is trending on the wrong side of questionable after missing B2B practices with an ankle injury. I’d fire up Davis across the board, particularly if Brown can’t go.

Tim Patrick | DK: $4.2k, FD: $5.4k | @ CAR | Cash & GPP

The Broncos have drawn some difficult secondary match-ups against the Chiefs, Saints, and Dolphins over the last three weeks. Sledding should get much easier against a soft Panthers secondary which has given up the most FPPG to perimeter WRs over the last eight weeks (Patrick aligns on the perimeter for 80% of his routes). Despite the tough match-ups, Patrick sandwiched a week 12 goose egg with a pair of 20 DKFP performances. It’s important to remember that Drew Lock was out for that week 12 game. He and Patrick clearly have a solid connection going, so I’m comfortable with Patrick as a cheap DFS target in all formats.

Tight Ends to Consider

Tight end targets at high/mid/low price points.

Preferred Studs: Travis Kelce (DK: $7.4k, FD: $8.2k) @ MIA, Darren Waller (DK: $6.8k, FD: $7.1k) vs. IND

Rob Gronkowski | DK: $4.8k, FD: $6.2k | vs. MIN | Cash & GPP

Behind Travis Kelce, Gronk is about as good of a bet as anyone else at the tight end position to find the end zone in any given week. He is coming off of his first 100+ yard game as a Buc as well so the future HoF-er is still capable of big yardage games AND touchdowns. Maybe he can combine the two this week and give us a Kelce-like performance.

Noah Fant | DK: $4.1k, FD: $5.5k | @ CAR | Cash & GPP

It feels like we’ve been chasing Fant’s week one and two performances all year… and it is kinda true. Fant hasn’t found paydirt since that week two game but one thing is certain, the Panthers have been absolutely torched by tight ends in recent weeks. Over their last four games, TEs are averaging 20.8 DKFP per game against the Panthers so, for at least one more time, I’ll give Fant a look in this tight end wasteland.

Dalton Schultz | DK: $3.5k, FD: $5.1k | @ CIN | GPP Preferred

Schultz has caught at least four passes in five straight games which, for a TE, represents a solid floor. If he gets lucky with a TD, boom… instant value. The big draw here is the Cincy defense which allows the 3rd most FPPG to TEs.

Defenses to Consider

D/ST is a very volatile “position” and shouldn’t take up too much time in your DFS research. However, here are two D/STs I’m on board with this week.

Safer but more expensive option:

Seahawks DST | DK: $3k, FD: $5k | vs. NYJ

Don’t feel as great about it as I would most other weeks… but… still… “it’s the Jets”.

Riskier but more affordable option:

Cowboys DST | DK: $2.4k, FD: $3.5k | @ CIN

QUICK! Who is the starting quarterback for the Bengals this week?! Exactly. Now go look it up. Aaaand that’s why people are going to ‘punt’ this bad Cowboys defense against a hopeless Bengals offense this week. Makes sense (in before Brandon Allen + Ryan Finley lead the Bengals to a 35+ point day).

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Once again, if you have any questions DM me on Twitter @Ryan_Humphries or tag me in the LineStar NFL chat using @N1TRO. Good luck this week!

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