Another loaded NFL Sunday rolls around and we’ll preview a mix of DFS studs and value plays to consider for your week 14 lineups! Don’t forget to catch the player prop section at the end of this article as well!

By: @Ryan_Humphries

Week 14 NFL PreSnap Podcast 🎙️

Catch Tyler Wiemann and Shannon Sommerville's run down on this Sunday's NFL DFS main slate!

Also, for anyone looking to roll out some NFL props this week, be sure to check out the info and videos at the end of this article featuring usage of LineStar's new Prop Edge+ for NFL tool. This tool can help make prop bettors some extra cash -- especially on sites like PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!

A free two-pick PrizePicks "Power Play" is posted at the end of this article as well!

Week 14 DFS Main Slate Rundown 📝

Another exciting NFL Sunday is just hours away so it’s time to hone in on some of the best DFS plays to consider on this week’s 10-game main slate! Outside of a potential shootout between the Vikings and Lions (which we’ll probably want plenty of exposure to), there are a ton of low-scoring games expected on this slate. Despite that, we’ll try to hunt down a few diamonds in the rough to go along with a nice mix of safer plays to consider! Best of luck this week!

Main slate match-ups with implied point totals and spreads:

Weather Report

As a reminder, weather plays less of a factor in football than it does in other sports but it is still worth making note of any games that could experience wet conditions, high winds, and/or frigid, snowy conditions.

The forecasts can always change so, as always, run a final weather check closer to kickoff!

NYJ @ BUF (1:00 ET, 42.5 O/U): Potential for some wintry snow/rain mix with winds a touch above 10 mph.

PHI @ NYG (1:00 ET, 44.5 O/U): Good chance for rain.

TB @ SF (4:25 ET, 37 O/U): Good chance for rain. Winds around 10-12 mph.

Quarterbacks to Consider

Potential quarterback targets at high/mid/low price points.

Joe Burrow, CIN | DK: $7k, FD: $8.3k | vs. CLE

Following another huge win over Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs, Joe Burrow and the Bengals will look to make another statement against one of their AFC North rivals. Burrow is once again back on his home turf where he has averaged 319.6 YPG passing, 25.6 YPG rushing, and 27.5 FPPG. It is easier to run on the Browns than it is to throw against them, but nothing is overly threatening about the Cleveland pass defense that ranks 21st in pass DVOA. Cleveland is also allowing a score on 41.6% of drives this season (5th highest). Burrow will be without his starting tight end (Hayden Hurst, calf/out) but when a QB still has guys like Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, and Tyler Boyd at their disposal, good things can be expected.

Jared Goff, DET | DK: $5.6k, FD: $7.1k | vs. MIN

Detroit is playing at home once again so you already know we’ll be targeting this game given how prone Ford Field has been to hosting high-scoring games this season. Not only is this the only game with a 50+ point total on the slate, but the 51.5 O/U here is also 5.5 points higher than the next-closest game (CLE @ CIN, 46 O/U). As mentioned any time Goff gets highlighted in these newsletters, he has averaged 125% more fantasy points when playing at home this season and he’s posted an impressive 17:3 TD:INT ratio across seven home games. On top of the implied home-field boost, Goff will get to throw against an awful Vikings pass defense that has been fleeced for 347.0 YPG over their last four games and allowed the 3rd most FPPG to QBs.

Tyler Huntley, BAL | DK: $5.5k, FD: $7k | @ PIT

Lamar Jackson heads into Sunday with a “doubtful” injury designation due to a knee injury he sustained early on in last week’s game so Huntley is poised to make his first start of the season. It wasn’t pretty, but Huntley came in last week and completed 27-of-32 passes for 187 yards, no touchdowns, and a pick; however, he added 10 rushes for 41 yards and a touchdown -- good for 16.58 FP. Admittedly, his fantasy floor is low. However, you can go back to week 15 of last season when the Ravens took on the Packers to see what sort of potential ceiling Huntley can provide. In that game, Huntley threw for 215 yards and two TDs while racking up 73 yards and two more TDs on the ground. This is a middling road match-up against a Steelers defense that has improved in recent weeks, but Huntley’s rushing ability makes him a worthy GPP flier if you’re looking to save some coin at QB (and pivoting off of the much chalkier Jared Goff). 

Running Backs to Consider

Potential running back targets at high/mid/low price points.

Derrick Henry, TEN | DK: $7.9k, FD: $9k | vs. JAX

It’s been a couple of disappointing weeks for him but if history has taught us anything, it’s that King Henry doesn’t stay down for long. The 7-5 Titans still have plenty to play for as they look to keep a stranglehold on the AFC South division lead. They head into this game as -3.5 home favorites so it does seem very likely that Henry could handle a high dosage of touches against the Jags. In his last four games against the Jaguars, Henry has averaged 147 rushing YPG and he punched in multiple touchdowns in three of those games. The Jaguars have also struggled to defend the run when playing on the road where they have surrendered 30.0 FPPG to RBs this season.

Tony Pollard, DAL | DK: $6.7k, FD: $7.5k | vs. HOU

Ezekiel Elliott, DAL | DK: $6.1k, FD: $8k | vs. HOU

There is a case to be made for both Cowboys RBs this week. Both Pollard and Zeke have handled at least 14 touches in each of the Cowboys’ last three games and they’ll draw one of the best match-ups an RB could ask for. The Texans are allowing an NFL-high 169.1 rushing YPG this season and their 14 TDs allowed to RBs are tied with the Bears for the most in the NFL. Pollard and Zeke carry similar projections this week so it really comes down to preference. Zeke is more likely to handle goal-line touches and has scored a touchdown in five consecutive games. Pollard is the more explosive runner who can break off huge plays and he’s found his way into the endzone eight times in his last five games, however, four of those scores came when Zeke missed two games.

D’Onta Foreman, CAR | DK: $5.4k, FD: $6.9k | vs. SEA

Seattle has been a match-up to exploit with opposing RBs all season. They just cannot stop the run and have now moved into a lead they don’t want to be in -- allowing the most FPPG in the NFL to RBs. Foreman has been scripted out of games on a bad Panthers team. But in games where he has at least 15 carries, he has put up 118, 118, 130, and 123 rushing yards, respectively. The Panthers are +3.5-point underdogs in this game but unless they just fall way, way behind early, Foreman should see a heavy workload in this dream match-up.

Travis Homer, SEA | DK: $5k, FD: $5.8k | vs. CAR

Neither Kenneth Walker III nor DeeJay Dallas has been able to practice this week due to ankle injuries. Both guys are officially listed as questionable, and they’re likely on the wrong side of questionable. If neither guy can go, specifically Walker, Travis Homer may garner some valuable touches at a cheap price tag. Homer was out last week with a knee injury but he logged full practices on Thursday and Friday and heads into this game without an injury designation. The Panthers have given up the 8th most rushing YPG this season and Homer is also a guy who can be utilized as a receiver. This game is a 4:25 ET kickoff, so be sure to have a late swap contingency plan in place if Walker suits up.

Wide Receivers to Consider

Potential wide receiver targets at high/mid/low price points.

Justin Jefferson, MIN | DK: $9k, FD: $9k | @ DET

Jefferson is the most expensive player on the board this week so we’re going to need a mammoth performance out of his to return value. It’s certainly a great spot for him to come through. The Lions have allowed the 4th most FPPG to WRs this season, and they’ve given up +38% more FPPG to WRs when playing at home. Jefferson owns an elite 38.1% share of the Vikings’ total air yards and he’s second among WRs with 410 yards after the catch. Jefferson has also either scored a touchdown or accounted for 95+ receiving yards in eight of his last nine games.

Amon-Ra St. Brown, DET | DK: $7.8k, FD: $8.6k | vs. MIN

This game environment just stands so far apart from the other nine match-ups on the slate so we’ll continue to highlight the core players here. Oh, and “The Sun God” is also just killing it. In his last two games (both at home), St. Brown has caught 20-of-22 targets for 236 yards and three touchdowns. Given how much better QB Jared Goff has played at home, it is no surprise to find out that St. Brown has averaged +113.2% more FPPG at home as well. This is also a highly exploitable match-up against a Vikings secondary that surrenders the 2nd most FPPG to WRs. I’ll be taking Sun God as my touchdown call of the week.

Christian Kirk, JAX | DK: $6.6k, FD: $7.6k | @ TEN

The recipe for successfully moving the ball against the Titans has been to pass, pass, and pass some more. Passing yardage has accounted for 76.9% of the total yards gained against the Titans' defense which is the highest mark in the league. With that being noted, you may not be shocked to also find out that the Titans have (easily) given up the most FPPG to WRs. Kirk leads the team in TGT% (24.5%), AirYard% (29.5%), receptions (62), receiving yards (814), and receiving touchdowns (7).

Garrett Wilson, NYJ | DK: $5.9k, FD: $7.2k | @ BUF

Mike White has done wonders for Garrett Wilson’s fantasy upside and he’ll land on the DFS radar once again. Over the last two weeks, with White in at QB, Wilson has commanded 23 targets (15 targets last week), owns a 45.8% AirYard%, has 13 receptions, and 257 yards with two TDs. And the match-up is far from frightening. Buffalo has not only allowed the 11th most FPPG to WRs this season but, more recently, they have been completely torched, allowing the 2nd most FPPG to WRs over the last four weeks.

Jerry Jeudy, DEN | DK: $5.4k, FD: $6.5k | vs. KC

The DFS community abandoned this Broncos offense weeks ago, and for good reason. They’ve been atrocious, scoring 16 points or fewer in seven of their last eight games (and in 10-of-12 games this season). With that said, Jeudy should have a wide pathway to a big target share. Courtland Sutton (hamstring) will miss his first game of the season which will thrust Jeudy into the clear-cut WR1 role. The Broncos will likely be playing from behind in this game against the Chiefs, who have given up the 5th most FPPG to WRs this season. I wouldn’t blame anyone for wanting to avoid this Broncos offense like the plague, but Jeudy does make for an intriguing GPP option on this slate.

Chris Moore, HOU | DK: $3.4k, FD: $5.3k | @ DAL

The Texans will be down their top two receivers with Brandon Cooks (calf) and Nico Collins (foot) already ruled out for Sunday. So, in a game where the Texans are probably trailing for most/all of the game (HOU is a massive +17 underdog), someone is going to have to catch passes. Chris Moore should be a notable beneficiary from the Cooks/Collins absences. He has primarily run out of the slot (83% slot%) and the Cowboys aren’t completely brutal against slot WRs (15th most FPPG allowed). Moore has caught a respectable 67.5% of his targets this season, which is saying something considering he’s dealt with some very incompetent QB play out of Davis Mills and Kyle Allen this season.

Tight Ends to Consider

Tight end targets at high/mid/low price points.

TJ Hockenson, DET | DK: $5.1k, FD: $6.5k | vs. MIN

Okay, let’s go ahead and get the “revenge game” narrative out of the way. This will be Hockenson’s first game against his old squad since being shipped off to Minnesota ahead of this season’s trade deadline. There’s always the potential for an extra motivational push for players to go off against their former teams (see; AJ Brown, week 13 vs. TEN). Mainly, we’re here for the juicy match-up and high-scoring atmosphere. The Vikings rank 28th versus TEs this season, giving up an average of 5.0 receptions/gm, 54.1 YPG, and 0.7 TD/gm to the position. Hockenson rarely comes off of the field and he was in on 90% of snaps last week, so any production that the Vikings get out of their tight ends will likely flow through Hock.

David Njoku, CLE | DK: $3.9k, FD: $5.6k | @ CIN

After sitting out last week with a knee injury, Njoku heads into this Sunday without an injury designation. When healthy, he’s been a productive tight end this season but this will be the first game he’s played with Desean Watson as his QB. Watson did not impress last week against the Texans but it’s understandable after not playing in an NFL game in over 700 days. If Watson can come out less rusty this go around, Njoku has some nice potential as a mid-range TE play. The Bengals have allowed 62.0 YPG to TEs over the last four weeks.

Chig Okonkwo, TEN | DK: $2.7k, FD: $4.5k | vs. JAX

If you need a tight end flier, Okonkwo could fit the bill. He has 10 targets over the last two weeks, catching seven passes for 103 yards. The guy is a major big-play threat, averaging 18.3 yards per reception this season, which would rank 3rd among all receivers (WRs included) if he had enough receptions to qualify. The Titans will be thin on big play receiving threats with electric rookie WR Treylon Burks sidelined this week, so don’t be surprised if Okonkwo stays involved in the passing game this Sunday. The Jags have allowed 76.0 YPG and the 3rd most FPPG to TEs over the last four weeks.

Defenses to Consider

D/ST is a very volatile “position” and shouldn’t take up too much time in your DFS research. However, here are some D/STs I’m on board with this week.

Pay-Up D/ST: Dallas Cowboys | DK: $3.8k, FD: $5.2k | vs. HOU

Mid-Range D/ST: Pittsburgh Steelers | DK: $2.8k, FD: $3.8k | vs. BAL

DraftKings Value: San Francisco 49ers | DK: $3.2k, FD: $4.6k | vs. TB

Stacks & Bring Backs 🥞

Below are a few team/game stack ideas to consider for this slate. In some examples, I will include a “bring back” option which will feature a normal "QB + Receiver" stack along with a player from the opposing team in the same game that could also benefit should the primary "QB + Receiver" stack go off.

QB + WR/TE + Opp Receiver (Game Stack)

Jared Goff, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Justin Jefferson

QB + WR/TE + Opp Receiver (Game Stack)

Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce, Jerry Jeudy

QB + Two Pass Catchers (Double Stack)

Joe Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins

QB + Two Pass Catchers (Double Stack)

Geno Smith, DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett

Full Team Stack - QB/WR/RB

Josh Allen, Stefon Diggs, James Cook

Value Team Stack

Mike White, Garrett Wilson, Zonovan Knight

“Ugly Duckling Game Stack” | QB + WR + Opp WR

Ryan Tannehill, Chig Okonkwo, Christian Kirk

Touchdown Call 🏈

Amon-Ra St. Brown, DET | DK: $7.8k, FD: $8.6k | vs. MIN

Reminder: Follow @LineStarApp on Twitter and retweet the weekly Touchdown Calls tweet! Three retweeters are randomly selected and assigned a player from the TD calls between myself, @FlatTyler83, and @ShannonOnSports. If your player scores a touchdown, you’ll win your choice of cash (via PayPal) or a one-month subscription to LineStar!

PrizePicks Sunday NFL Power Play ⚡

This is a two-pick NFL "Power Play" I have over on PrizePicks. Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but these props did stand out so I'll be rolling it out with confidence! If it hits, it will return a 3x payout!

Garrett Wilson MORE than 61.5 Receiving Yards

D'Onta Foreman MORE than 63.5 Rushing Yards

🆕 Props Edge+ 🆕

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Once again, if you have any questions DM me on Twitter or hit me up in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck this week!

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