By: @Ryan_Humphries

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We’re back in business in week 14 which will place another 11-game main slate onto the docket! The 2021 NFL season has been an interesting one, to say the least. Parity is ruling the landscape and, at this point, if a team isn’t reasonably within reach of a playoff berth… they’re garbage. In fact, of the NFL’s 32 teams, only four currently find themselves further than two games out from a spot in the playoff picture: the Lions (1-10-1), Jaguars (2-10), Texans (2-10), and Jets (3-9). So is the wild amount of parity bad for the game or beneficial? The general audience may be split on that question but, from a DFS perspective, I have no issues with it. I believe a more even level of talent across the league simply opens up more options for building a player pool and constructing unique lineups. While the NFL DFS process may seem a bit more arduous this season, the fruits earned from the labor feels more rewarding. With that said, let’s see what sort of success we can find this week!

Main slate match-ups with implied point totals and spreads:

Quarterbacks to Consider

Potential quarterback targets at high/mid/low price points.

Josh Allen, BUF | DK: $7.8k, FD: $8.8k | @ TB

Josh Allen and the Bills will go from playing in freezing, snowy conditions with 40+ mph winds in week 13 to picture perfect Florida weather in week 14 that will consist of partly sunny, high-70s conditions with a light breeze. That change of scenery should be a welcomed one for a Bills offense that is in desperate need of finding some consistency. I’m expecting some fairly low ownership on Allen in this spot as most people will look to spend down at the position. However, this is the only game on the slate with a 50+ point total and there is some serious shootout potential to be had here. Teams have had a very difficult time running against this Bucs defensive front all season which has led to opposing QBs averaging nearly 40 throws per game! If Buffalo hopes to win this game against the GOAT, or at least keep up, Josh Allen is likely going to need to do it all both with his arm and with his legs. He could be poised for his biggest game in weeks.

Dak Prescott, DAL | DK: $6.7k, FD: $8.1k | @ WAS

You could argue that this is the first game since week one in which Prescott’s top three receiving targets (Lamb, Cooper, Gallup) enter Sunday with no major injury/COVID-related question marks. With Zeke Elliot (nagging knee injury) and Tony Pollard (questionable with a foot injury) a bit banged up, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Dak air it out close to 50 times this game. The “play QBs against Washington” flowchart has been failing to produce results in recent weeks but it’s worth going back to the well at least one more time. Even with some improved play as of late, Washington still has the highest FPPG average allowed to opposing QBs this season and rank 30th in pass DVOA.

Taysom Hill, NO | DK: $5.6k, FD: $7.7k | @ NYJ

Due to pricing discrepancies, Hill can be viewed as a safe play in all formats on DK but more of a GPP only play on FD. Hill is dealing with a busted up middle finger on his throwing hand and Alvin Kamara returning to action may have a negative effect on Hill’s rushing upside. If New Orleans was playing just about anyone else, I’d likely be out on Hill but… it’s the Jets. The Jets defense ranks dead last in pass DVOA this season and their 7.8 YPA allowed checks in at 31st in the NFL. They’re also giving up a touchdown on 31.3% of drives (highest rate in the league). Given the fact that Taysom Hill will 100% do some damage with his legs (with a decent chance at a rushing score), his volume as a passer is really just an added bonus (at least on DraftKings at $5,600). Let’s just hope he doesn’t throw another four picks this week and we’ll be gravy, baby. 

Running Backs to Consider

Potential running back targets at high/mid/low price points.

Leonard Fournette, TB | DK: $7.4k, FD: $7.6k | vs. BUF

I know I can’t be the only one who really dislikes the RB player pool on this slate, right? Truthfully, I don’t love spending up on any particular running back option but the mid-tier and value tier RBs don’t give me a ton of confidence either.

We’ll start with Fournette who enters week 14 with at least six receptions in four straight games along with a 72% snap% in that same span. The receiving work is providing him with a nice floor and he is of course involved in one of the most prolific offenses in the league which can move the ball against anyone. You have to wonder if Jonathan Taylor and the Colts gave other teams a blueprint on how to run against this Buffalo defense back in week 11. In last week’s extremely windy game environment, everyone KNEW the Patriots were going to run on nearly every play, and yet they were still able to average nearly five yards per carry. Fournette leads the slate with 38 redzone rushes on the season and his 13 redzone targets are tied with Austin Ekeler for the slate lead as well. Fournette will be one running back I won’t mind spending up on for this slate.

Antonio Gibson, WAS | DK: $6k, FD: $7.4k | vs. DAL

Washington is force-feeding Gibson with touches in the second half of the season and he’s now averaging 27.3 touches/gm since coming out of the week nine bye. Gibson’s receiving upside takes a hit with the likely return of JD McKissic this week, but we should also remember that Gibson was targeted seven times two weeks ago against Seattle when McKissic played the majority of the game. Dallas has not given up a ton of production to RBs this season but they do rank 19th in run DVOA so it isn’t as if they’re an elite run-stopping unit.

Javonte Williams, DEN | DK: $5.9k, FD: $6.7k | vs. DET

It’s looking like Melvin Gordon III (hip/shoulder) is on track to return to action after a one-game absence; that is the only thing keeping Javonte Williams from being 80+% owned on this slate following a week 13 primetime breakout performance (23 carries, 102 yards, 9 targets, 6 catches, 76 yards, 1 TD) against the Chiefs. Williams and Gordon have operated in a true 50/50 split this season but perhaps the rookie’s dynamic performance last week was enough to swing the pendulum in his direction towards more of a 70/30 or 60/40 type split. It’s wishful thinking but Williams is going to be the feature back in Denver for years to come so it would make sense for his workload to increase down the stretch of the season. It’s an emotional week for the Broncos following the death of former WR Demaryius Thomas so expect the team to be highly motivated in front of their home crowd where they will check-in as 10 point favorites over Detroit, who allows the 3rd most FPPG to RBs.

D’Onta Foreman, TEN | DK: $5.1k, FD: $5.9k | vs. JAX

We have yet another RBBC backfield to gamble on in Tennessee with Foreman, Hilliard, and McNichols being a part of a three-man committee. Foreman is the guy who should see the majority of early down work and his touches likely increase when they play with a lead. Tennessee is an 8.5 point favorite at home versus Jacksonville this week. Even in a negative game script against a tough New England defense in their last game, Foreman still received 19 carries which he turned into 109 yards (5.7 YPC)… though he did lose a fumble. There is no surefire way of knowing how the work will be split up this week, but Foreman does seem to be the most likely candidate to receive the most touches.

JaMychal Hasty, SF | DK: $4k, FD: $4.7k | @ CIN

Let’s get one more RB dart throw in here for good measure. With Elijah Mitchell out this week and Trey Sermon on IR, the 49ers are down to Hasty and Jeff Wilson Jr. as their top two healthy RBs. Deebo Samuel, who has been utilized out of the backfield quite a bit, is also iffy to play as well due to a groin injury that sidelined him in week 13. I’m leaning slightly in Hasty’s direction here due to his potential as a pass catcher out of the backfield. Hasty has seen limited time on the field in five games this season but in three of those, he has drawn at least four targets. The Bengals have given up the most receptions (88) to the RB position this season which bodes well for Hasty’s upside, especially on DraftKings in the full PPR scoring format. 

Wide Receivers to Consider

Potential wide receiver targets at high/mid/low price points.

Tyreek Hill, KC | DK: $8.5k, FD: $8.7k | vs. LV

The Chiefs offense has been a shell of itself at times this season but we can expect a “boom” week for them at home against the Raiders. Patrick Mahomes threw for 406 yards and five TDs against Las Vegas in week 10 and, in general, this is just a match-up that the Chiefs have crushed in across recent seasons. In the last seven meetings against the Raiders, the Chiefs are averaging 35.9 PPG. All signs point towards a big week for Tyreek, who has an elite 27.4% TGT% on the season and he hauled in a pair of TDs against LV in that week 10 game. Hill doesn’t pay off these lofty salaries without posting a ceiling game, but it’s very possible we get one of those out of him on Sunday.

Hunter Renfrow, LV | DK: $6.1k, FD: $6.7k | @ KC

Darren Waller is out once again this week and there are not many players in this price range who have been as consistent as Renfrow. He has received at least nine targets in four of the last five games and he has posted an extremely strong 79.3% catch rate on the year. When Derek Carr needs a short to intermediate completion, Renfrow is his first read nearly 100% of the time without Waller on the field. On top of that, Renfrow possesses a healthy role in the redzone and this is an up-tempo game where the Raider likely will be forced into a high pass play percentage.

Mike Williams, LAC | DK: $6k, FD: $6.9k | vs. NYG

Have you ever heard of the quote “Never argue with a fool. They will drag you down to their level and then beat you with experience”? Well, in a way, a similar metaphor can be applied to the New York Giants and teams who play against them. Perhaps it’s just me, but it seems like every Giants game I have watched for more than 15 minutes is ugly as all hell. They simply seem to play such an ugly brand of football that their opposition ends up being dragged down to their level. So, I have been hesitant to roster players going against the Giants this season, but there’s a big opportunity for Mike Williams this week. Williams is currently on the COVID-19 list after being deemed a close contact but he has been symptom free while testing negative throughout the week. Keenan Allen, on the other hand, tested positive for COVID and is not in line to suit up on Sunday. That will leave a huge 26.7% TGT% and 10.3 tgt/gm vacated for this match-up. Mike Williams should be first in line to benefit from Allen’s absence and we’ve seen what kind of massive ceiling he can provide when Justin Herbert actually targets him.

Chargers WRs Jalen Guyton (DK: $3.4k, FD: $5.2k) and Joshua Palmer (DK: $3k, FD: $4.7k) might be worth punt consideration, as well as they, should both see a significant snap increase. I slightly prefer Palmer between the two.

Jarvis Landry, CLE | DK: $5.4k, FD: $6.4k | vs. BAL

The Ravens secondary has been severely depleted due to injuries and they enter week 14 having allowed the 3rd most FPPG to opposing WRs over their last four games. The Browns are coming out of their bye week and in an odd scheduling scenario, they will be playing Baltimore in back-to-back games. Landry caught 6-of-10 targets for 111 yards against them two weeks ago and that was before Baltimore lost CB Marlon Humphrey for the remainder of the season. It’s pretty clear that Baker Mayfield is playing through some injuries in recent months but perhaps the bye week helps out in some way and he can actually find some decent efficiency on Sunday.

Amon-Ra St. Brown, DET | DK: $5k, FD: $5.8k | @ DEN

The Lions backfield is in disarray with D’Andre Swift and Jamaal Williams both out this Sunday. On top of that, TE TJ Hockenson is doubtful to play. Amon-Ra St. Brown is coming off of the best game of his rookie campaign last week where he caught 10-of-12 targets for 86 yards and hauled in his first career touchdown as time expired, which provided Detroit with their first win of the season. If that doesn’t boost your QB’s confidence in you, I’m not sure what will. St. Brown should be expected to play nearly every snap in this game and since he mostly operates out of the slot, he should see plenty of high percentage targets on short to intermediate routes. St. Brown has caught an impressive 76.6% of his targets this season.

Tight Ends to Consider

Tight end targets at high/mid/low price points.

George Kittle, SF | DK: $6.9k, FD: $7.1k | @ CIN

This just in: George Kittle is still insanely good. A 9/181/2 performance from week 13 will likely make him less sneaky this week (he was somehow <10% owned last week with Deebo sidelined) and Deebo Samuel may very well be returning to the lineup. However, Cincinnati has been ineffective against TEs lately and have allowed the 3rd most FPPG to the position over the last four weeks. The 49ers are 30th in the NFL in pass play percentage but due to the uncertainty surrounding their backfield, it wouldn’t surprise me to see Jimmy Garoppolo push for a season-high in pass attempts.

Dawson Knox, BUF | DK: $5k, FD: $6k | @ TB

Knox is often good for at least one or two looks in the endzone per game and the Bucs are not overly efficient against TEs (9th most FPPG allowed). We’re expecting to see Josh Allen’s pass volume increase in this match-up which bodes well for any Bills pass catcher. Knox is a pretty solid bet to score a TD and bring in a handful of catches in this game which carries the slate’s highest total (54 O/U).

Brock Wright, DET | DK: $2.5k, FD: $4.5k | @ DEN

Wright is pretty much a DraftKings only GPP punt play but with TJ Hockenson doubtful to play, he should be on the field for nearly every snap. He played 40% of snaps last week (Hockenson: 85%) and caught 2-of-3 targets for 28 yards and his first career touchdown. He should be in line for at least a handful of targets and won’t need to do too much to return value at his stone minimum $2,500 salary.

Defenses to Consider

D/ST is a very volatile “position” and shouldn’t take up too much time in your DFS research. However, here are some D/STs I’m on board with this week.

Overall: Denver Broncos | DK: $3.8k, FD: $4.4k | vs. DET

DraftKings Preferred: Carolina Panthers | DK: $2.8k, FD: $4.8k | vs. ATL

FanDuel Preferred: Kansas City Chiefs | DK: $3.3k, FD: $3.7k | vs. LV

Stacks & Bring Backs 🥞

This is a new section I’m adding in to give you some ideas for some team stacks. In some examples, I will include a “bring back” option which will be a player on the opposing team in the same game that could also benefit if the stack goes off.

QB + WR + Opp Receiver

QB Josh Allen, WR Stefon Diggs, WR Chris Godwin

QB + WR + Opp Receiver

QB Patrick Mahomes, WR Tyreek Hill, WR Hunter Renfrow

QB + Two Pass Catchers (aka “Double Stack”)

QB Dak Prescott, WR CeeDee Lamb, WR Amari Cooper

RB + D/ST

RB Javonte Williams, Broncos D/ST

Full Team Stack - QB/WR/RB

QB Justin Herbert, WR Mike Williams, RB Austin Ekeler

Value Team Stack

QB Taylor Heinicke, WR DeAndre Carter, RB Antonio Gibson

“Ugly Duckling Stack” | QB + WR + Opp RB

QB Baker Mayfield, WR Jarvis Landry, RB Devonta Freeman

Touchdown Call 🏈

George Kittle, SF | DK: $5.9k, FD: $7.1k | @ CIN

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Once again, if you have any questions DM me on Twitter or hit me up in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck this week!

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