By: @Ryan_Humphries | LineStar Chat: @N1TRO

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With a couple games being played on Saturday this week, we’re looking at an eleven game Sunday main slate. There are a few projected blowouts on the docket with three games carrying double digit spreads, but otherwise I believe the majority of these games will be closely contested. With three weeks left in the regular season, the playoff implications continue to rise so there’s no shortage of narratives to track. Let’s go get that bag this week!

Games to Target

Kansas City Chiefs (-3) @ New Orleans Saints | 51.5 O/U

Implied Points | KC: 27.3, NO: 24.3

Notable Offensive Injuries: QB Drew Brees (ribs) - Returned from IR and could possibly play, WR Michael Thomas (ankle) - Questionable

Whether or not Drew Brees is back in action, this is a game that commands some DFS attention. I have a feeling that Taysom Hill will hold the reigns in this Saints offense for one more week, but we’ll see how things shake out on the injury report as we get closer to Sunday. Regardless of who is QB’ing in New Orleans, expect a closely contested game here with some legitimate shootout potential. Everyone knows how good the Chiefs offense is and what kind of scoring potential they bring to the table, but they’ve been playing in some tight games recently. In their last five games, they’ve won by just a combined 21 points (4.2 PPG margin of victory). The Saints’ momentum of a nine game win streak got derailed last week in Philly, but they’ll look to get back on track this week. I still believe the Chiefs win this game and likely cover, but I don’t see a runaway victory.

Score Prediction: Chiefs - 34, Saints - 28

Philadelphia Eagles @ Arizona Cardinals (-6) | 49.5 O/U

Implied Points | PHI: 21.8, ARI: 27.8

Notable Offensive Injuries: Chase Edmonds (ankle) - Questionable

Jalen Hurts may not be a major threat to throw for 300+ yards but it does seem like he’s going to help move this Eagles offense into scoring territory more often. I’m liking the high scoring potential in this game which puts two dynamic dual-threat QBs against one another. Kyler Murray gets another week removed from that shoulder injury that has seemed to hinder him for the last few games and, for the most part, both teams are quite healthy on the offensive side of the ball heading into this game. The over has hit in Arizona’s last four home games and if Hurts can make improvements on his accuracy in his second NFL start, don’t be shocked if a little shootout gets brewing here.

Score Prediction: Cardinals - 28, Eagles - 24

Quarterbacks to Consider

Potential quarterback targets at high/mid/low price points.

Lamar Jackson | DK: $7.5k, FD: $8.2k | vs. JAX | GPP Preferred

It’s not vital to spend up at QB this week but if that’s the route I’m taking, I’m likely rolling with Lamar. The Jacksonville defense is simply the gift that keeps on giving. They can’t stop the run and they can’t stop the pass -- Lamar Jackson runs and Lamar Jackson passes… seems simple enough. The Jaguars allow a league worst 6.3 yards per play and the Ravens should absolutely feast here now that they’re seemingly bouncing back from their mid-season slump which was also plagued by COVID issues. There is some risk with Lamar due to the blowout potential, but ya gotta love him for GPPs.

Jared Goff | DK: $6.3k, FD: $7.8k | vs. NYJ | Cash & GPP

Since week four, quarterbacks facing the Jets have scored at minimum 16.0 FPPG -- over the last four weeks, QBs are averaging 27.5 FPPG against them. This is likely another blowout loss for the hapless Jets but Goff should possess a solid floor in this match-up with the strong possibility of a ceiling game.

Taysom Hill | DK: $6k, FD: $7.5k | vs. KC | Cash & GPP

This is obviously assuming Drew Brees sits out one more week. But if Hill gets another start, how can you not love the fantasy floor he has shown? The primary knock most people had on him when he took hold of the starting job was his inability to pass. Lo and behold, he has completed 71.9% of passes in the four games he has started. Along with the efficient passing, he is averaging 52.8 YPG on the ground in that stretch with four rushing TDs. The Chiefs should force the Saints to keep their foot on the gas, so Hill only stands to benefit from a shootout-y game script.

Running Backs to Consider

Potential running back targets at high/mid/low price points.

Preferred RB Stud: Derrick Henry (DK: $9.5k, FD: $10.2k)

Jonathan Taylor | DK: $7.2k, FD: $7.4k | vs. HOU | Cash & GPP

Taylor began to retake the workhorse RB role in the Colts offense two weeks ago against Houston when he racked up 135 yards and a touchdown on 16 touches. He followed that up with a monster game last week against Las Vegas going for 165 yards and two scores on22 touches. Houston does nothing to stop the run and they allow the most FPPG to RBs. It’s a lofty price jump for Taylor but if the touches continue to be there, the touchdowns should continue to land in his box score.

Cam Akers | DK: $6.6k, FD: $6.7k | vs. NYJ | Cash & GPP

The rookie backfield takeover trend continues with Cam Akers. His 31 total touches last week was one of the highest touch counts for any RB this year and he was also in on 79% of offensive snaps. This is a glorified scrimmage game for the Rams so this should be another opportunity for Sean McVay to see what he really has in Akers as they get ready to prep for the NFC playoffs. The Jets are actually lowkey ‘not terrible’ against the run -- they’re allowing just 3.9 YPC (ranks 4th) and allow the 13th most FPPG to RBs. But if the volume continues to be given to Akers, then he’s firmly in play and should have a great shot at at least one touchdown.

Kenyan Drake | DK: $5.5k, FD: $6.6k | vs. PHI | GPP Preferred*

If someone were to ask you “who leads the NFL in carries inside the ten yard line?” your immediate response would likely be to name someone like Derrick Henry or Dalvin Cook. While you’d be very close to naming either one of those guys, you’d be wrong. Drake’s 31 carries inside the ten yard line is tops in the league. He’s turning those opportunities into points, scoring five touchdowns in Arizona’s four games. While Kyler Murray does hinder some of Drake’s rushing upside, Murray is running the ball a bit less in recent weeks -- perhaps by design in order to keep him healthy down the stretch? *If Chase Edmonds (ankle) sits out this game, you can likely trust Drake as a cash play as well since his involvement in the passing game should increase.

Gus Edwards | DK: $4.4k, FD: $5.5k | vs. JAX | GPP Only

Anyone looking to hop on the Gus Bus this week? He’s fairly TD-dependent, which keeps him as a “GPP only” play for me, but the Ravens are likely in line to score quite a few touchdowns against a miserable Jags defense. Barring an injury, Edwards may struggle to eclipse even ten touches but he’s been very efficient the last couple of weeks while finding paydirt three times. Who knows, maybe if there is a ton of garbage time, Edwards could see an uptick in carries this week.

LeSean McCoy | DK: $4k, FD: $4.9k | @ ATL | GPP Only

This is definitely a “GPP-only-no-way-in-hell-you-play-him-in-cash” recommendation and a lower exposure one at that. He’ll be completely dependent on whether or not Ronald Jones (finger/C19) gets cleared to play this Sunday. But if Jones is indeed out, we should remember that Leonard Fournette was a healthy scratch this past week and, in very limited work versus Minnesota, Shady flashed ‘shades’ of his former self. He’s an intriguing punt play for sure (if RoJo is out).

Wide Receivers to Consider

Potential wide receiver targets at high/mid/low price points.

Preferred WR Stud: Tyreek Hill (DK: $8.8k, FD: $9.3k)

Allen Robinson II | DK: $7.4k, FD: $7.3k | @ MIN | Cash & GPP

Robinson is putting up borderline elite numbers yet still maintains affordable mid-$7k price tags. Many fantasy football writers/analysts/etc. use the term “game script independent” when referring to an RB whose volume and production are minimally impacted by the score. If there were a comparable term for WRs, it’d be “quarterback independent” and that’s what Robinson is. He’s putting up great stats despite having to play with the likes of Mitch Trubisky and Nick Foles. The Vikings pass defense has stiffened up a bit in recent weeks but they’re still allowing the 5th most FPPG to WRs and ARob is a great bet to see 10+ targets.

Cooper Kupp | DK: $7k, FD: $7.1k | vs. NYJ | Cash & GPP

If I’m on board with Goff (see above) then it obviously makes sense that his receivers should be in play as well. Like Goff, the only reason to be hesitant here is due to the blowout risk, but someone like Kupp could return value even if the Rams have their foot on the gas for two or three quarters. The Jets give up the most FPPG to slot WRs, which is where Kupp runs the majority (58%) of his routes. Kupp is also 13th in the NFL with 17 redzone targets, which also leads the team.

Brandon Aiyuk | DK: $6.3k, FD: $6.9k | @ DAL | Cash & GPP

Aiyuk has been overshadowed by other rookie receivers this season but he is having a great year in his own right. The targets have been coming his way in droves and over the last four games, he is averaging a monstrous 12.5 targets/gm. With Deebo Samuel (hamstring) on the shelf for the rest of the year, we should expect Aiyuk to be peppered all day against an exploitable Dallas secondary.

Corey Davis | DK: $5.8k, FD: $6.8k | vs. DET | GPP Preferred

Davis was about 20% owned across GPPs on both sites last week and he finished the day with a 3/34/0 stat line. Needless to say, he burned quite a few of us. But it was simply a day where Derrick Henry ran wild and AJ Brown took care of most of the damage in the receiving game. There is a chance that happens again, but this is also a good opportunity for Davis to have a big bounce back game while checking in at sub-10% ownership.

TY Hilton | DK: $5.5k, FD: $6.8k | vs. HOU | Cash & GPP

Many may view this pick as chasing points, but I don’t believe it is. It has taken a little while, but Hilton has finally drawn the ire of Philip Rivers which, in fantasy, is a valuable trait to possess. Over the past three weeks, Rivers has sent 23 targets in Hilton’s direction which has resulted in 17 catches for 277 yards and four touchdowns. The Colts have one of the highest projected team totals of the week and we should expect the Rivers to Hilton connection to continue rolling.

Lynn Bowden Jr. | DK: $3.6k, FD: $5k | vs. NE | GPP Preferred

Patriots slot corner Jonathan Jones has been targeted on a lofty 28% of routes ran against him. Bowden is operating as the Dolphins’ primary slot man and last week he led Miami in both catches (7) and receiving yards (82). He’s getting extra looks while other Miami receivers are banged up but if Jakeem Grant (hamstring) plays this week, we may need to downgrade Bowden’s DFS viability a bit.

Tight Ends to Consider

Tight end targets at high/mid/low price points.

Preferred TE Stud: Travis Kelce (DK: $8k, FD: $8.5k)

Rob Gronkowski | DK: $4.2k, FD: $6.3k | @ ATL | GPP Preferred

If the Bucs take advantage of the Falcons’ weakness, then it’ll be a busy day for Tom Brady and the passing attack. The Falcons allow the 5th most FPPG to TEs and I believe we can look for Gronk to have more than just two targets this week.

Irv Smith Jr. | DK: $3.6k, FD: $5.4k | vs. CHI | Cash & GPP

Kyle Rudolph (foot) isn’t practicing as of Thursday and heads towards the weekend on the wrong side of questionable. If he is out, we’ve gotta consider Irv Smith Jr. for our DFS lineups. Chicago has a respected defense but they actually struggle quite a bit to cover tight ends, allowing the 4th most FPPG to the position.

Cole Kmet | DK: $3k, FD: $5.1k | @ MIN | Cash & GPP

Kmet has seemingly overtaken Jimmy Graham as the primary tight end on the Bears roster. In the last two weeks, Kmet has played on 78% and 85% of snaps while being targeted seven times in each game. In the fantasy realm known as the “tight end wasteland,” if you can’t afford to spend up for Travis Kelce, then Kmet should be a worthy guy to punt at the position. The sort of volume he’s seen these last two games is rarefied air for the position.

Defenses to Consider

D/ST is a very volatile “position” and shouldn’t take up too much time in your DFS research. However, here are two D/STs I’m on board with this week.

Safer but more expensive option:

Miami Dolphins | DK: $3.7k, FD: $4.6k | vs. NE

If you have the salary available, go for the Rams who draw the obvious advantageous Jets match-up. Otherwise, the Dolphins stand out as a viable pivot off of the Rams if you’re still looking to spend up at DST. They’ve hit double digit fantasy points in three straight games while Cam Newton and the Pats have struggled to consistently move the ball for much of the season and have become very one dimensional.

Riskier but more affordable option:

Dallas Cowboys | DK: $2.7k, FD: $3.6k | vs. SF

Can we strike gold with the Cowboys DST for two weeks in a row? I won’t rule it out. Defenses facing the 49ers have averaged 14.0 FPPG over the last four games and you’re not breaking the bank if you take the gamble on this Dallas DST.

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Once again, if you have any questions DM me on Twitter @Ryan_Humphries or tag me in the LineStar NFL chat using @N1TRO. Good luck this week!

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