A special Saturday NFL triple-header is on tap this weekend so let’s dive into this glorious bonus football action with some DFS plays and props to consider!

By: @Ryan_Humphries

Week 15 Saturday Main Slate Rundown 📝

We’ve reached the point in the season where, outside of some lower-level bowl games, the NFL no longer competes with college football viewership and expands the schedule to include some Saturday action! This Saturday will include a triple-header beginning at 1:00 ET. There are some huge DFS contests posted for this three-game slate so we’re here to dish out a bit of a quick hit main slate newsletter! Let’s get it!

Weather Report

As a reminder, weather plays less of a factor in football than it does in other sports but it is still worth making note of any games that could experience wet conditions, high winds, and/or frigid, snowy conditions.

The forecasts can always change so, as always, run a final weather check closer to kickoff!

BAL @ CLE (4:30 ET, 39 O/U): Near freezing temps and 15 mph winds. Not perfect weather, but not a major downgrade over “normal” football conditions.

MIA @ BUF (8:15 ET, 43.5 O/U): Here’s where the fun begins. Significant snowfall is expected in this game, temps will be below freezing, and sustained winds blowing around 10+ mph. We could still see some decent scoring here but it’s an obvious downgrade to both offenses. Still, ya can’t really comfortably fade an entire game on a three-game slate, especially when it features two of the better offenses in the NFL.

Quarterbacks to Consider

Potential quarterback targets at high/mid/low price points.

Josh Allen, BUF | DK: $8.3k, FD: $9k | vs. MIA

- Bills' offense has regressed recently and the weather brings forth some additional concerns, but Josh Allen must be considered on a three-game slate.

- Could see additional rushing upside due to the weather.

- Threw for 400 yards on this Miami defense back in week three.

- MIA allowing the 3rd most FPPG to QBs and 3rd most pass completions this season.

Deshaun Watson, CLE | DK: $6.3k, FD: $6.8k | vs. BAL

- He was noticeably more effective last week in his second game back. 276 yards passing + 33 yards rushing.

- First two games have been on the road so this is his first home game in a Browns uniform.

- Baltimore’s defense is allowing a 72.4% comp% over their last four games.

- Should go lower-owned, by the standards of a three-game slate.

Matt Ryan, IND | DK: $5.2k, FD: $6.9k | @ MIN

- Best QB match-up on the slate. MIN: 27th in pass DVOA, 4th most FPPG allowed to QBs.

- Playing in a dome = no weather concerns.

- Two weeks to prepare for this game, IND coming off of their bye week.

- Largely a salary-saving option on DraftKings -- opens up a lot of roster flexibility. Would prefer Watson for $100 more on FanDuel.

Running Backs to Consider

Potential running back targets at high/mid/low price points.

Jonathan Taylor, IND | DK: $7.2k, FD: $9k | @ MIN

- Vikings run defense has been about as awful as their pass defense. 3rd most FPPG allowed to RBs L4Wks.

- Vikings allowing 8.3 rec/gm and 77.0 rec YPG to RBs L4Wks. Taylor has four targets in three consecutive games.

- Vikings allow 41% more FPPG at home to RBs & they’re dealing with multiple injuries on the defensive front.

- Taylor has 20+ carries in all four games under HC Jeff Saturday.

Dalvin Cook, MIN | DK: $6.9k, FD: $8.2k | vs. IND

- Cook’s floor has been fairly low lately but he has faced three top-10 run DVOA defenses in the last four weeks (DAL, NYJ, NE).

- Colts have struggled against the run, allowing 1.8 TDs/Gm and the 5th most FPPG to RBs L4Gms.

- This game owns the highest total on the slate and the Vikings are -3.5 home favorites -- could lead to a more run-heavy game flow.

Raheem Mostert, MIA | DK: $5.3k, FD: $6.2k | @ BUF

- Significant boost if Jeff Wilson Jr. (hip/questionable) is ruled out. Wilson did not practice on Tuesday & Wednesday and was a limited participant in Thursday’s practice.

- Mostert played 73% of snaps last week following Wilson’s injury (8 snaps, 16% snap%)

- Weather in Buffalo could force a more run-heavy game script.

- Buffalo allowed a 17-71-1 rushing line (4.2 YPC) to undrafted rookie Zonovan Knight last week.

- RBs averaging 5.3 receptions against BUF L4Gms.

JK Dobbins, BAL | DK: $5.2k, FD: $6.6k | @ CLE

- Dobbins (knee) returned from a six-game absence last week -- only played 26 snaps (40% snap%) but took 15 carries for 120 yards (8.0 YPC) and a TD.

- Ravens: 4th most run-heavy offense in the NFL. Perhaps even more so with backup QB Tyler Huntley starting for a second consecutive game.

- Browns: 3rd most FPPG allowed to RBs this season.

James Cook, BUF | DK: $4.8k, FD: $5.3k | vs. MIA

- Low-owned GPP option.

- Cook has made up significant ground on Devin Singletary in the last two weeks in terms of Bills RB snap share. Week 13 - Cook: 43% snap%, Singletary: 44% snap%, Week 14 - Cook: 41% snap%, Singletary: 49% snap%.

- Cook may be viewed as the preferred pass-catching RB -- caught 6-of-6 targets against New England two weeks ago.

- Snowy/windy weather could force more short passes.

- MIA giving up 7.5 receptions/gm to RBs L4Gms.

Wide Receivers to Consider

Potential wide receiver targets at high/mid/low price points.

Justin Jefferson, MIN | DK: $9.1k, FD: $9.1k | vs. IND

- Tough match-up on paper (IND: Fewest PPG allowed to WRs) but they’ve been more middle-of-the-pack in recent weeks (14th fewest FPPG allowed to WRs).

- Jefferson is essentially match-up proof.

- He has at least 11 targets in five of the last six games.

- He has either at least a touchdown or 98 yards receiving in nine of the last 10 games.

- Colts may be down a couple of CBs: Kenny Moore II & Brandon Facyson -- both considered doubtful.

Tyreek Hill, MIA | DK: $9k, FD: $8.8k | @ BUF

- If the “snow game” factor scares people off of Tyreek, he’ll be a sharp GPP pivot off of Jefferson.

- Should still see plenty of targets regardless of weather, especially if Miami falls behind on the scoreboard early.

- He has caught 71.9% of his targets this season, averaging 10.7 TGT/gm.

- Bills have been getting burned by opposing WR1s on a routine basis and giving up the 5th most FPPG to WRs over their last four games.

Michael Pittman Jr., IND | DK: $5.8k, FD: $7k | @ MIN

- Major match-up boost against the Vikings' porous pass defense (2nd most FPPG allowed to WRs).

- Pittman leads the Colts in targets, receptions, and receiving yards.

- He has caught 71.0% of his targets this season.

- Highest-scoring game environment on the slate.

Donovan Peoples-Jones, CLE | DK: $5.1k, FD: $6.5k | vs. BAL

- DPJ was Deshaun Watson’s favorite target last week -- caught 8-of-12 targets for 114 yards.

- Has accounted for at least 11.6 DKFP in seven of the last eight games.

- Ravens allowing the 3rd most FPPG to perimeter WRs over the last four weeks (DPJ: 70% perimeter%)

WR Demarcus Robinson, BAL | DK: $4k, FD: $6k | @ CLE

- Robinson has caught 12-of-14 targets in the last two games.

- He has run 94% of his routes on the perimeter.

- Browns giving up the 7th most FPPG to perimeter WRs over the last four weeks.

Tight Ends to Consider

Tight end targets at high/mid/low price points.

David Njoku, CLE | DK: $4.2k, FD: $6k | vs. BAL

- Njoku’sreceiving line in his first game with Watson at QB: 9-7-59-1.

- Missed week 13 w/ injury but logged a 96% snap% last week.

- Njoku has averaged 13.3 FPPG against Baltimore over the last two years.

- Owns an excellent 25.5% TGT% in the redzone.

Dawson Knox, BUF | DK: $3.9k, FD: $5.3k | vs. MIA

- Best TE match-up on the slate -- MIA has allowed the 3rd most FPPG to TEs this season.

- Knox owns an 82% snap% over the last four weeks, 74% snap% on the season.

- Following a couple of down weeks, Knox caught 4-of-7 targets for 41 yards and a TD last week.

- Short/mid-range passing game may be more prevalent due to snowy/windy weather conditions.

Defenses to Consider

D/ST is a very volatile “position” and shouldn’t take up too much time in your DFS research. However, here are some D/STs I’m on board with this week.

Baltimore Ravens | DK: $3k, FD: $4.5k | @ CLE

Buffalo Bills | DK: $2.7k, FD: $4.8k | vs. MIA

Touchdown Call 🏈

Jonathan Taylor, IND | DK: $7.2k, FD: $9k | @ MIN

PrizePicks Saturday NFL Power Play ⚡

This is a two-pick NFL "Power Play" I have over on PrizePicks. Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but these props did stand out so I'll be rolling it out with confidence! If it hits, it will return a 3x payout!

Michael Pittman Jr. MORE than 5.5 Receptions

JK Dobbins MORE than 49.5 Rush Yards

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Once again, if you have any questions DM me on Twitter or hit me up in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck this week!

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