By: @Ryan_Humphries | LineStar Chat: @N1TRO

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I hope everyone is gearing up for a safe and happy holiday weekend. Once Saint Nick has huffed it back to the North Pole and everyone has had a couple of days to break in their new gifts, we’ll have a Sunday chock-full of NFL action to look forward to. As usual for this newsletter, our sights are set on this week’s main slate which consists of ten games. The penultimate week to the regular season always carries some high-stakes games with plenty of pivotal division/conference match-ups on tap. For a full list of playoff-clinching scenarios for week 16, feel free to skim through this list (via NFL.com).

Aside from the usual DFS endeavors, I’m sure many of you are vying for some season-long championships this week. To those who are, I say: “good luck!” I grinded through to a championship appearance in my long-standing friend's league and I just want to say to my league mates, Rob and Jay, who may read this article… you guys are trash! Better luck next year, suckers.

Alright, with no weather-related issues to hit on, let’s get to it!

Games to Target

Philadelphia Eagles (-2.5) @ Dallas Cowboys | 49.5 O/U

Implied Points -- PHI: 26.0, DAL: 23.5

Notable Offensive Injuries: RB Ezekiel Elliot (calf) - Questionable, WR Jalen Reagor (ankle) - Questionable

It’s a long shot and is a little sad to say, but both the 5-9 Cowboys and 4-8-1 Eagles are still mathematically in contention for a playoff berth out of the NFC East. So both teams should be fully motivated to win this game and there is some sneaky shootout potential to be had here. The Cowboys have scored a combined 71 points the last two weeks while the Eagles, behind the versatility of Jalen Hurts at QB, have looked like a much more capable offense than they were with Carson Wentz at the helm. This game also has the benefit of being played inside a dome and the 49.5 point total is currently the second highest on the main slate. No one is overly expensive on either side of the ball here and we could see several guys return 4x value (or better) if a back-and-forth shootout does develop. Good game to load up on in GPPs and there are a couple of standout cash game targets as well.

Score Prediction: Eagles -30, Cowboys - 26

Los Angeles Rams @ Seattle Seahawks (-1) | 47.5 O/U

Implied Points -- LAR: 23.3, SEA: 24.3

Notable Offensive Injuries: RB Cam Akers (ankle) - OUT, RB Deejay Dallas (ankle) - Doubtful, TE Greg Olsen (foot) - IR but expected to return this week

This game is a little tricky to prognosticate. When these teams last met in week ten, it wasn’t exactly a fantasy bonanza as the Rams won 23-16 (39 total points). It was also the game that seemed to spark the end of the 2020 “Let Russ Cook” era. BUT there is a lot at stake here. Seattle clinches the NFC West with a win while Los Angeles clinches a playoff berth with a win. That may not necessarily imply both offenses are going to go off here but the Seahawks really need to get things back on track offensively heading into the postseason, meanwhile, the Rams need to bounce back after an embarrassing loss to the Jets this past Sunday. Vegas has this game pinned at nearly a pick ‘em with Seattle being skinny one point favorites.

Score Prediction: Seahawks - 31, Rams - 27

Quarterbacks to Consider

Potential quarterback targets at high/mid/low price points.

Preferred QB Stud: Patrick Mahomes (DK: $8.5k, FD: $9.4k) vs. ATL

Jalen Hurts | DK: $7k, FD: $8.2k | @ DAL | Cash & GPP

Hurts is only completing 53.9% of his passes but that doesn’t really matter considering what he can bring to the table with his rushing ability. In his two starts, Hurts has combined for 169 yards and a score -- and while he’s not ultra-accurate, his 74 pass attempts over the last two weeks have led to 505 yards and four TDs. The Cowboys may not be getting torched by opposing QBs lately, but they’ve also faced guys like Nick Mullens, Brandon Allen, and Alex Smith in three of their last four games. Ultimately, they are a defense that Hurts and the Eagles can exploit.

Baker Mayfield | DK: $6.1k, FD: $7.6k | @ NYJ | GPP Preferred

Admittedly, this feels a tad point chase-y. There is no doubt that Baker is on a heater the last few weeks but this could easily be one of those games where Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt can just run wild on 40+ touches while Mayfield may not even need to throw 20 times. But if the Jets can keep things competitive (hey, they did just beat the Rams so…) then I see no reason why Mayfield couldn’t hit 3x-4x value here. The Jets allow the 3rd most FPPG to QBs and their 7.5 YPA allowed also checks in as the 3rd highest (worst) mark.

Mitchell Trubisky | DK: $5.7k, FD: $7.2k | @ JAX | Cash & GPP

Oh boy, back on the Trubisky train we go. The reasoning is pretty simple, Jacksonville is terrible against the pass and allows the 2nd most FPPG to QBs and 8.1 YPA (ranks last in NFL). At the very least, I doubt Trubisky completely burns you here so he’s a reasonable floor play with a chance at a ceiling performance. While his fantasy numbers haven’t been off the charts since regaining the starting role, he also hasn’t been bad either.

Running Backs to Consider

Potential running back targets at high/mid/low price points.

Preferred RB Studs: Nick Chubb (DK: $7.8k, FD: $9k) @ NYJ, David Montgomery (DK: $7.7k, FD: $7.8k) @ JAX

Austin Ekeler | DK: $7.6k, FD: $7k | vs. DEN | Cash & GPP

Not only are the majority of the stud RBs playing outside of the main slate this week, but there are also a ton of guys near the top of pricing who are banged up and questionable to play heading into Sunday. Ekeler may not do a massive amount of damage on the ground but his prominent role in the passing game definitely helps balance things out. Since returning from the IR, he’s averaging 9.5 targets a game and 19.5 total touches per game. Ekeler simply hasn’t seen the touchdown variance come his way but with the amount of volume he’s seeing, the touchdowns should come sooner rather than later.

David Johnson | DK: $6.1k, FD: $6.7k | vs. CIN | GPP Preferred

I doubt we can expect David Johnson to see eleven targets again but if Duke Johnson (neck) is out another week, a healthy amount of targets should still come his way. The Texans are also 7.5 point favorites in this game so it’s pretty feasible that DJ has a 20-ish touch workload coming his way. Cincinnati gives up 4.6 yards per carry on defense so if Johnson finds the endzone, he could be looking at returning 3.5x-4x value.

Le’Veon Bell | DK: $5.8k, FD: $6.4k | vs. ATL | Cash & GPP

With Clyde Edwards-Helaire (ankle/hip) potentially sidelined for the next two weeks, and almost certainly out this week, then Bell should be in line for around a 70% snap rate against the Falcons on Sunday. Atlanta actually boasts a solid run defense, but teams don’t really need to run much against them considering how terrible they are against the pass. But when you’re the lead back on a team that should move the ball into the redzone as much as the Chiefs can, you’re a valuable fantasy asset. The Falcons do allow just under six receptions per game to RBs, so Bell can definitely do some damage through the air as well.

Melvin Gordon III | DK: $5.6k, FD: $6.4k | @ LAC | GPP Preferred*

*If Phillip Lindsay (hip/knee) is out this week, you can probably consider Gordon to be in play in all formats. Lindsay hasn’t practiced at all this week, so it is looking like a strong possibility he doesn’t suit up in week 16. Gordon is actually running really well late in the season and, over the last three games, he has 260 yards on just 39 carries (6.7 YPC). Lindsay averages about 11 carries per game, so if the majority of those touches fall in Gordon’s lap, he can return a top 10 performance at the position this week. Also, hey, a little bit of a revenge narrative can be thrown into the mix here as Gordon faces his former team for the second time this year.

Giovanni Bernard | DK: $4.8k, FD: $6k | @ HOU | GPP Preferred

Of course, Gio goes weeks without taking advantage of the Joe Mixon absence until Cincy goes up against Pittsburgh, one of the league’s best defenses. Now we’re left in a conundrum of whether or not we should chase those points from week 15. One thing is certain: the match-up with this Houston run defense doesn’t get much better. The Texans allow the 2nd most FPPG to opposing RBs, including a league-worst 5.0 YPC average. Cincinnati should also really get Bernard more involved in the passing game (just 2.3 targets/gm last four weeks). If they do this week, I’d expect a solid return on investment here.

Wide Receivers to Consider

Potential wide receiver targets at high/mid/low price points.

Preferred WR Studs: Tyreek Hill (DK: $9k, FD: $9.4k) vs. ATL, Calvin Ridley (DK: $8.5k, FD: $8.7k) @ KC

Allen Robinson II | DK: $7.7k, FD: $7.5k | @ JAX | GPP Preferred

ARob is questionable while nursing a hamstring injury and, assuming he suits up, he may not be 100% for this game. That is really the only thing giving me pause on labeling him a “cash safe” play. But, as I hit on above with Trubisky (and most of this season), Jacksonville is a prime match-up for any opposing high-volume skill position player. Robinson had a quiet target share in week 15, but he still turned five looks into four receptions for 83 yards (20.8 YPC) and under normal circumstances, he’ll typically be in line for around nine or ten targets per week.

Cooper Kupp | DK: $6.6k, FD: $6.8k | @ SEA | Cash & GPP

Trusting Kupp to have a successful fantasy day means that we have to trust Jared Goff, which is asking a lot sometimes. However, even though he threw for zero scores against Seattle in week 10, he completed a solid 73% of his passes for 302 yards against this Seahawks secondary. Kupp had a pretty quiet day (5/50/0 on seven targets) that week, but I believe we can consider that to be his baseline in this week’s pivotal divisional match-up. Seattle has allowed the 2nd most FPPG to slot WRs which is where Kupp aligns 60% of the time.

Diontae Johnson | DK: $6.3k, FD: $6.7k | vs. IND | Cash & GPP

It’s a tough match-up (Colts allow 11th fewest FPPG to WRs) but the Steelers run game is nonexistent (31st in NFL in rushing YPG). Despite Johnson’s drop issues throughout the season, Pittsburgh and Big Ben insist on sending 10+ targets/gm his way nearly every week. I could be wrong, but aside from the week 14 game against the Bills (where the drops got him benched), I believe Johnson has 10+ targets in every game that he didn’t get hurt in. I would expect Diontae Johnson to continue his heavy involvement in a crucial game this week.

CeeDee Lamb | DK: $5.3k, FD: $6k | vs. PHI | GPP Preferred

Lamb has garnered at least six targets in five of the last six games. Meanwhile, this Eagles secondary has been in shambles while allowing the 3rd most FPPG to WRs over the last month. Between Lamb, Cooper, Gallup, Schultz, and Zeke/Pollard out of the backfield, there are a lot of mouths to feed in this Cowboys passing attack. No one guy has a target share above 21% (Cooper) but if Lamb happens to draw double-digit targets, he can put up some monster numbers even with Andy Dalton at QB.

Russell Gage | DK: $5.1k, FD: $5.8k | @ KC | Cash & GPP

Julio Jones (hamstring) has been ruled out for a third straight week. In his absence, Gage has played 72% and 91% of snaps in the last two weeks while claiming 17 total targets. He converted those looks to ten catches for 150 yards and a TD. It’s pretty safe to assume that the Falcons will be playing from behind for much of this game. While Calvin Ridley is the stud to target here, Gage should also get his fair share of targets/receptions as well and won’t be the primary focus of the Chiefs secondary.

Cam Sims | DK: $3.3k, FD: $5k | vs. CAR | Cash & GPP

The good news for the WFT is that Alex Smith (calf) is practicing in full and is looking to be good to go for Sunday’s game against the Panthers. The bad news is Terry McLaurin (ankle) has been downgraded to doubtful. The Washington passing game basically runs through McLaurin and TE Logan Thomas so, without TMac in the mix, Cam Sims is the most likely candidate to soak up additional looks, followed by Steven Sims Jr. and Dontrelle Inman. The Panthers are not particularly strong against the pass and they’ve allowed the 7th most FPPG to WRs over the last eight games. Sims is worthy of a punt.

Tight Ends to Consider

Tight end targets at high/mid/low price points.

Preferred TE Studs: Travis Kelce (DK: $8.5k, FD: $8.8k) vs. ATL, Mark Andrews (DK: $5.7k, FD: $7k) vs. NYG

Logan Thomas | DK: $4.9k, FD: $6k | vs. CAR | Cash & GPP

As mentioned right above with Cam Sims, Terry McLaurin & Thomas are far and away the two primary receiving threats in this offense. With McLaurin (likely) out, Thomas should at minimum continue to see his usual target share but odds are his looks see a notable increase. He saw 15 targets against Seattle last week, which would be a bit of a stretch to predict for this game, but it honestly wouldn’t be all too surprising. I’d say he’s due for at least nine or ten targets which obviously puts him in play if you aren’t paying up for Kelce.

Austin Hooper | DK: $3.5k, FD: $5.1k | @ NYJ | GPP Preferred

Like the majority of NFL TEs, Hooper has struggled to post consistent fantasy numbers and he’s also battled some injuries. However, he draws the best match-up a tight end could ask for. The Jets have allowed the most FPPG to the position as well as a league-worst 13 TDs to tight ends.

Donald Parham Jr. | DK: $2.5k, FD: $4.2k | vs. DEN | Cash & GPP (DK Preferred)

Hunter Henry has landed on the COVID-19/reserve list late in the week and will not be able to suit up on Sunday. Henry has played on 87.4% of snaps this season, which obviously leads all Chargers TEs. Parham Jr. should easily be the guy who soaks up the majority of snaps at tight end this week. He’s a former XFL star who stands at 6’8” and is totally worth a punt at the position, especially at $2,500 on DraftKings.

Defenses to Consider

D/ST is a very volatile “position” and shouldn’t take up too much time in your DFS research. However, here are two D/STs I’m on board with this week.

Safer but more expensive option:

Chicago Bears | DK: $3.6k, FD: $4.7k | @ JAX

It’s a good match-up to begin with and would be made even better if Jacksonville is without James Robinson (ankle), who hasn’t been practicing this week. The Jags may end up being ultra one-dimensional, which plays very well into Chicago’s hands defensively.

Riskier but more affordable option:

Carolina Panthers | DK: $2.7k, FD: $4k | vs. WAS

Definitely a risky pick here because this Panthers D is not good, but the injuries are piling up for Washington. By the time Sunday comes around, there may only be one or two guys that Carolina has to worry about stopping.

Once again, if you have any questions DM me on Twitter @Ryan_Humphries or tag me in the LineStar NFL chat using @N1TRO. Good luck this week!

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