By: @Ryan_Humphries

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Due to the holidays, we’re getting to the main slate a little earlier than usual this week so fingers crossed that there are no further COVID landmines that pop up between now and Sunday (wishful thinking, I know). As it stands now, there is the possibility of at least one game (KC @ PIT) being moved to Tuesday as the Chiefs deal with an outbreak but for now, we’re going to assume that all 11 games on this Sunday’s main slate will play out as scheduled (more wishful thinking). Hopefully the majority of the info and recommended plays provided below are still helpful by the time Sunday rolls around but just be prepared to adjust on the fly once teams announce their actives/inactives ahead of kickoff.

Most importantly, I hope you all have a safe and happy holiday weekend! Let’s get down to business!

Main slate match-ups with implied point totals and spreads:

Quarterbacks to Consider

Potential quarterback targets at high/mid/low price points.

Justin Herbert, LAC | DK: $7.2k, FD: $8.4k | @ HOU

Herbert and the Chargers passing game is cruising right along and they’ll be poised for another successful Sunday out in Houston in week 16. Herbert checks in with multiple touchdowns in five straight games and has averaged nearly 40 pass attempts per game in that span. He’s usually going to provide a bit of yardage in the rushing game and it isn’t absurd to think he’ll be tasked with a heavier workload (both passing and rushing) given the potential absence of Austin Ekeler (C19). 

Matthew Stafford, LAR | DK: $6.7k, FD: $7.9k | @ MIN

Prior to last week’s 17-9 win over Chicago, point totals in Minnesota’s previous six games averaged a whopping 59.5 combined points. Minnesota is just bad enough defensively and good enough on offense to where their games often produce these high scoring shootouts which, obviously, is a goldmine for fantasy purposes. With multiple quality stack options, including the best receiver in fantasy football, Stafford single, and double stacks appear to be in an excellent spot this week. The Vikings are allowing the 2nd most FPPG to QBs this season and this game unsurprisingly features the highest point total on the slate.

Joe Burrow, CIN | DK: $5.9k, FD: $7.1k | vs. BAL

QBs against the Ravens continue to be priced down as if they’re facing a difficult match-up when that is not exactly the case. The injury-plagued Ravens secondary is allowing 7.5 YPA (3rd highest) this season and the 7th most FPPG to QBs. Burrow’s 68.9% comp% is 4th among NFL QBs and that number has risen to 71.5% when he has played at home where he has also averaged 287.1 YPG.

Running Backs to Consider

Potential running back targets at high/mid/low price points.

Alexander Mattison, MIN | DK: $6.8k, FD: $5.5k | vs. LAR

This is as straightforward as it gets. Dalvin Cook will miss this game due to testing positive for COVID which will open up an avenue for Mattison to be the feature back for the fourth time this season. In three previous games with Cook sidelined, Mattison has racked up 89 total touches (29.6 touches/gm) for 448 total yards (149.3 YPG) and two touchdowns. It does help that Mattison’s starts have come against Detroit (twice) and Seattle. The Rams (4th in DVOA) won’t present such an easy challenge but volume trumps everything in fantasy football and Mattison is locked into 20+ touches in a potential shootout game environment.

James Robinson, JAX | DK: $5.9k, FD: $8.2k | @ NYJ

In the first game following the unceremonious departure of Urban Meyer, Robinson handled 18 carries and caught 3-of-6 targets while playing 84% of snaps. It was a true featured role for Robinson who had been trending in the wrong direction in previous weeks when Meyer was still calling the shots. Robinson should be salivating at the chance to run up against the Jets and their horrendously bad run defense. New York checks in dead last in the NFL in run DVOA and, to no surprise, they have given up the most FPPG to opposing RBs. Robinson is listed as “questionable” for this game but as long as him sitting out of practices this week is more for load management purposes, then he should be rostered with confidence on Sunday.

David Montgomery, CHI | DK: $5.7k, FD: $6.6k | @ SEA

Over the last four weeks, Najee Harris (87% snap%) and Jonathan Taylor (79% snap%) are the only other RBs who have played on a higher percentage of offensive snaps for their team than Montgomery (77% snap%). It’d be great if Chicago’s offense wasn’t so… dysfunctional. But this is an excellent chance for Montgomery to make something happen with his touches against a porous Seattle defense (2nd most FFPG allowed to RBs). Montgomery has been targeted 22 times in the last three games -- another positive going up against a Seahawks defense that has allowed the most receptions (101) to the running back position.

Ronald Jones II, TB | DK: $5.1k, FD: $5.4k | @ CAR

It was a costly week 15 for the Bucs who lost multiple key contributors for an extended period of time -- Leonard Fournette being one of those losses. Enter Ronald Jones II who should be expected to take on the vast majority of RB touches which Fournette leaves behind. It would seem unlikely that Jones will handle the same exact receiving role which Fournette (6.0 targets/gm) had and the Bucs are the most pass-heavy offense in the league. But even if Jones sees around 70% of Fournette’s workload, he can return value at these salaries. RBs have averaged 121.0 YPG against this Panthers defense over their last four games.

Justin Jackson, LAC | DK: $4.2k, FD: $5.4k | @ HOU

The central theme thus far in this week’s running back section is “backup RBs stepping into an increased role.” Austin Ekeler was placed on the reserve/COVID-19 list on Wednesday and is considered day-to-day. There is a chance for Ekeler to suit up on Sunday, which would essentially nix this Justin Jackson recommendation. Assuming Ekeler is indeed out then Jackson should get the first crack at lead RB duties for the Chargers, especially when taking into consideration Joshua Kelly’s costly goal line fumble in last week’s 28-34 loss to the Chiefs. Jackson has looked like the much more explosive back in his limited opportunities this season (5.7 YPC) and his receiving ability lines up much closer to the skill-set that Ekeler provides in this offense. Finally, the Chargers are playing the Texans who rank 27th in run DVOA, allow the 2nd most YPC, and have surrendered the 6th most FPPG to RBs.

Wide Receivers to Consider

Potential wide receiver targets at high/mid/low price points.

Cooper Kupp, LAR | DK: $9.1k, FD: $9.8k | @ MIN

All of the value that can be had at RB this week makes it a breeze to slot fantasy football’s top receiver into lineups. After another monstrous performance in week 15 (9-136-2 on 13 targets), Kupp continues to trend towards breaking several single-season receiving records. At this rate, until Kupp gets priced above $10k, he’s nearly a lock-in cash games and chalk worth eating in GPPs.

Ja’Marr Chase, CIN | DK: $7.1k, FD: $7.1k | vs. BAL

Are we getting a Chase ceiling game? I certainly like the chances. The majority of Chase’s routes are out on the left perimeter -- the side of the field which Baltimore has been awful at defending (most FPPG allowed to that side of the field in last eight weeks). Overall, the Ravens have just struggled in general on the outside (3rd most FPPG allowed to perimeter WRs this season) and Chase rarely travels into the slot (18% of routes) so this is a match-up he needs to exploit. Pedestrian performances in recent weeks may keep his ownership fairly low as well.

Russell Gage, ATL | DK: $5.9k, FD: $6.7k | vs. DET

The Russell Gage breakout has arrived. Gage’s 37 targets between weeks 12-15 were the 9th most among all NFL players and he has returned an average of 19.4 DKFP/14.8 FDFP per game in that stretch. Gage has ran the majority (52%) of his routes out of the slot so he’ll see plenty of coverage from Detroit slot corner AJ Parker. The Lions have given up the 5th most FPPG to slot WRs over the last month and with rookie tight end Kyle Pitts taking on plenty of defensive attention, Gage should continue to flourish… albeit in a lackluster Falcons offense.

Antonio Brown, TB | DK: $4.9k, FD: $7k | @ CAR

AB has not seen the field since week six due to a combination of an ankle injury and a suspension dealt out by the league. He’s set to make his return this week and the timing could not be more convenient after Chris Godwin went down with a torn ACL last week along with Leonard Fournette (IR) and Mike Evans (questionable)both suffering hamstring injuries. Brown held a significant role within the Bucs offense prior to missing all this time and his targets and involvement should now either stay about the same or, more than likely, increase noticeably. DraftKings failed to price AB appropriately so expect him to be mega chalk on this slate.

 Editor Note: Mike Evans is now OUT

Laquon Treadwell, JAX | DK: $3.5k, FD: $5.3k | @ NYJ

In recent weeks, Treadwell has become arguably the WR1 on the Jacksonville offense. While “Jaguars top receiver” isn’t going to pique much interest or excitement, for these DFS salaries perhaps it should. In the last four weeks, Treadwell has earned an 89% snap% to go along with 28 targets and a team-leading 27.3% share of his team’s total air yards. It won’t take a mammoth effort to return value, particularly at his $3,500 salary on DraftKings. 

Tight Ends to Consider

Tight end targets at high/mid/low price points.

Rob Gronkowski, TB | DK: $6.2k, FD: $6.7k | @ CAR

Gronk’s volume has not been an issue, especially as of late where he has 9.5 targets/gm over the last four. To state the obvious once more, additional targets which Godwin, Fournette, and (possibly) Evans are leaving behind need to be distributed somewhere and Gronk is an obvious candidate to benefit. His redzone involvement may hit vintage Gronk levels.

Dallas Goedert, PHI | DK: $5.1k, FD: $5.9k | vs. NYG

Goedert benefits from having played on Tuesday night and not seeing his DFS salaries adjusted following his second big week in a row. QB Jalen Hurts connected with Goedert on 7-of-9 targets for 135 yards. Several of those targets were of the “deep shot” variety which you love to see from an upside perspective.

Brock Wright, DET | DK: $2.5k, FD: $4.5k | @ ATL

He’s far from a safe investment but with TJ Hockenson on the IR, Wright played a season-high 74% of snaps in last week’s game against Arizona. While Wright failed to catch his lone target, simply being on the field for that amount of time makes him a potential GPP punt at the stone minimum over on DraftKings. Atlanta represents a pretty decent match-up for opposing tight ends and Wright just needs a luck box touchdown to smash value at $2,500. 

Defenses to Consider

D/ST is a very volatile “position” and shouldn’t take up too much time in your DFS research. However, here are some D/STs I’m on board with this week.

Overall: Philadelphia Eagles | DK: $3.6k, FD: $5k | vs. NYG

DraftKings Preferred: Seattle Seahawks | DK: $3k, FD: $4.5k | vs. CHI

FanDuel Preferred: Pittsburgh Steelers* | DK: $3k, FD: $3.2k | @ KC

*Pending COVID news

Stacks & Bring Backs 🥞

This is a new section I’m adding in to give you some ideas for some team stacks. In some examples, I will include a “bring back” option which will be a player on the opposing team in the same game that could also benefit if the stack goes off.

QB + WR + Opp Receiver

QB Joe Burrow, WR Ja’Marr Chase, TE Mark Andrews

QB + WR + Opp Receiver

QB Matthew Stafford, WR Cooper Kupp, WR Justin Jefferson

QB + Two Pass Catchers (aka “Double Stack”)

QB Justin Herbert, WR Keenan Allen, WR Mike Williams

RB + D/ST

RB Miles Sanders, Eagles D/ST

Full Team Stack - QB/WR/RB

QB Tom Brady, WR Antonio Brown, RB Ronald Jones II

Value Team Stack

QB Trevor Lawrence, WR Laquon Treadwell, RB James Robinson

“Ugly Duckling Stack” | QB + WR + Opp RB

QB Matt Ryan, WR Russell Gage, RB Craig Reynolds

Touchdown Call 🏈

Ja’Marr Chase, CIN | DK: $7.1k, FD: $7.1k | vs. BAL

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Once again, if you have any questions DM me on Twitter or hit me up in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck this week!

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