By: @Ryan_Humphries

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I’d like to wish you all a happy new year and may 2022 bring you happiness, peace, and prosperity! Hopefully, we can get started on that whole “prosperity” thing with this week’s massive Sunday NFL main slate which will feature 14 games! No doubt, it’s been a wild season up to this point but it’s been an entertaining one nonetheless, even with all of the non-football-related craziness that has transpired. We have just two huge NFL main slates remaining this season so let’s make it count!

Main slate match-ups with implied point totals and spreads:

Quarterbacks to Consider

Potential quarterback targets at high/mid/low price points.

Josh Allen, BUF | DK: $8k, FD: $8.8k | vs. ATL

After getting some key receivers back from the COVID reserve list, Allen should continue to possess a 40+ FP ceiling when he faces off against a Falcons defense which has allowed the 3rd most FPPG to opposing QBs. On top of his respectable passing stats, in his last four games, Allen is averaging 59 yards on the ground which, in fantasy scoring, is essentially the equivalent of a QB throwing for an additional touchdown and 50 passing yards. The Falcons have allowed the 7th most rushing yards to QBs this season so Allen is likely to find success when he does tuck it and run. The Bills will check in with the highest implied team total on the slate and will be playing highly motivated in their quest to clinch a playoff berth.

Jalen Hurts, PHI | DK: $6.6k, FD: $7.9k | @ WAS

Hurts had no problems putting up numbers on this Washington defense two weeks ago when he completed 20-of-26 passes for 296 yards and a touchdown to go along with 38 rushing yards and a pair of rushing touchdowns. Washington also just got torched by Dak Prescott last week in what turned into an absolute rout. The Washington defense, which allows the most FPPG to opposing QBs, is simply depleted at this point in the season and there is very little hope they’ll slow down a dynamic QB like Hurts. Also, of note, Eagles RB Miles Sanders will be out in this game. When Sanders missed three games between weeks 8-10, Hurts tallied rushing totals of 71 yards, 62 yards, and 53 yards. Expect a similar rushing floor in this game.

Trey Lance, SF | DK: $4.8k, FD: $6.4k | vs. HOU

And we’ll round out the QB section with yet another dual threat option as rookie Trey Lance is set to make his second career start as Jimmy Garoppolo is considered doubtful to play due to a thumb injury. There is no need to overthink this one. While Houston’s defense is not as bad as some may believe it to be, Lance’s DFS salaries are simply too cheap to ignore and Vegas is still pinning the 49ers with a lofty 28.3 implied total (5th highest on the slate). On top of his ability as a runner, Lance has a strong arsenal of receiving weapons at his disposal with Deebo Samuel, George Kittle, and Brandon Aiyuk all putting up some excellent numbers recently. Lance’s ceiling is fairly similar to other QBs who cost $1,500+ more than him on this slate so he’ll likely be the favorite QB option among the masses when people look to spend down at the position. High ownership wouldn’t scare me away from playing Lance in this spot.

Running Backs to Consider

Potential running back targets at high/mid/low price points.

Obvious Stud Play: Jonathan Taylor, IND | DK: $9k, FD: $10k | vs. LV

David Montgomery, CHI | $6.5k, FD: $7.2k | vs. NYG

Among RBs on this slate, only Sony Michel and Jonathan Taylor have played on a higher percentage of offensive snaps than David Johnson (75% snap%) over the last month. On top of his 17.5 carries/gm in that span, Montgomery is seeing incredibly high usage in the passing game with 7.8 targets/gm resulting in 6.5 receptions/gm. He’s also likely to see a favorable game script as the Bears check in as six-point home favorites against the lousy New York Giants who rank 27th in run DVOA.

Ronald Jones II, TB | DK: $6.3k, FD: $7k | @ NYJ

As reiterated many times over this season, the Jets represent the best match-up for opposing RBs. They have allowed the most FPPG to opposing RBs by a wide margin and rank 29th in run DVOA. In a blowout win over the Panthers last week, Ronald Jones II only played 55% of snaps but he still touched the ball on 22 plays. The Bucs are heavy 13 point favorites on the road this week, so another blowout win is fairly likely. Jones should still receive a strong workload and has a great chance to find the endzone for a second consecutive week while he operates as the Bucs primary back.

Sony Michel, LAR | DK: $5.8k, FD: $7.1k | @ BAL

So the safer route to take when targeting Rams players in lineups would be to roll with Stafford and the WRs. Reminder: The Ravens secondary is completely decimated and they just gave up 525 yards passing to Joe Burrow in week 16. The Ravens defensive front has remained fairly stingy since they have more healthy bodies across their D-Line and linebacking corps. With that said, Sony Michel leads all RBs on the slate with an 89% snap% over the last month to go along with at least 20 touches in four straight games. Now that Darrell Henderson Jr. is on the IR, his workload should continue to stay the same, if not increase. The Rams did activate Cam Akers off of IR this past week but is reportedly unlikely to make his season debut after a surprisingly fast turnaround to a torn Achilles in the preseason.

Darrel Williams, KC | DK: $5.8k, FD: $6.2k | @ CIN

Clyde Edwards-Helaire has been ruled out of Sunday’s game due to a shoulder injury so Darrel Williams should be the main man out of the Chiefs backfield. When CEH missed five games earlier in the season, Williams has two huge games, one decent game, and two lackluster performances. He’s retained a relevant role, particularly as a receiver, even when CEH returned to action. The Bengals represent more of a middle-of-the-road kinda match-up (14th most FPPG allowed to RBs) and there could be plenty of scoring to be had in this game which carries a close spread (KC -4.5) and a high total (51 O/U). If Williams ends up seeing around a 70-80% snap rate, which is likely, then he has excellent upside on Sunday.

Dare Ogunbowale, JAX | DK: $5.1k, FD: $5.5k | vs. NE

This is certainly a safe play by no means but with James Robinson sidelined, Dare Ogunbowale has virtually no competition for touches in the Jags backfield. He played virtually every snap after Robinson got injured in last week’s game and ended the day with 17 carries and caught 2-of-4 targets. He’ll be a good bet to handle somewhere in the vicinity of 20 touches against the Patriots who have been surprisingly “not great” against RBs lately (9th most FPPG allowed to RBs L4Wks). This is a GPP only play for sure as Jacksonville sits as 16.5-point underdogs with a projected team total of just 12.5 points. But perhaps there could be some garbage time gold to be had here with Ogunbowale.

Wide Receivers to Consider

Potential wide receiver targets at high/mid/low price points.

Obvious Stud Play: Cooper Kupp, LAR | DK: $9.5k, FD: $10.2k | @ BAL

AJ Brown, TEN | DK: $7.2k, FD: $7.5k | vs. MIA

After his monstrous 11-145-1 performance last week (with 16 total targets) against San Francisco, expect Miami’s defense to make stopping Brown their number one priority, thus making him more of a GPP option. It’s likely they’ll be more effective in containing Brown than the 49ers were in week 16, but Brown was also getting open at will in his first game back since recovering from a calf injury and simply looked dominant. No one else has stepped up as a reliable target in this Titans offense so Brown will be a good bet to see another 10+ targets on Sunday and his ceiling remains as high as just about any other WR on the slate not named “Cooper Kupp.”

Jaylen Waddle, MIA | DK: $6.7k, FD: $7k | @ TEN

Sticking in the same game as AJ Brown, Waddle is another wide receiver we’ll need to keep in mind for main slate lineups. In his rookie season, Waddle has posted an incredibly impressive 76.2% catch% and he has seen at least nine targets in four straight games. Many of his targets are coming on high-percentage intermediate routes and QB Tua Tagovailoa has shown immense accuracy this season with an NFL leading 70.1% comp%. Waddle runs the majority of his routes out of the slot; the Titans have allowed the most FPPG to slot WRs. Seems easy enough. Also, if there is an award for “best touchdown celebration,” please just go ahead and give Waddle the trophy.

Antonio Brown, TB | DK: $6.1k, FD: $8.5k | @ NYJ

So it’s pretty obvious that Antonio Brown is more in play on DraftKings where his salary was not adjusted nearly enough following a 15 target, 10 catch, 101-yard performance in week 16. Chris Godwin is of course done for the season due to a torn ACL and Mike Evans, who missed last week with a hamstring injury, is currently listed as questionable. Also, the high amount of targets that RB Leonard Fournette (also out) accounted for cannot be overlooked either. Basically, even if Mike Evans does play, Antonio Brown is in line for another high target share as a clear favorite target of Tom Brady’s.

Tyler Boyd, CIN | DK: $5.4k, FD: $6.2k | vs. KC

It’s easy to overlook Boyd with Ja’Marr Chase having a sensational rookie season while Tee Higgins has been putting up incredible numbers in his second year, including a massive 12-194-2 stat line last week. But Boyd has been solid in his own right and will come at a considerable discount in comparison to the other two Bengals WRs. Boyd has averaged 80.3 receiving YPG over his last four games and has caught 71.6% of his targets this season. Boyd aligns in the slot for 91% of his routes and the Chiefs have allowed the 6th most FPPG to slot WRs over the last eight weeks.

Nico Collins, HOU | DK: $4k, FD: $5.2k | @ SF

Purely a dart throw here. While Brandin Cooks is set to make his return this week, he wouldn’t be the first guy we’ve seen struggle in his initial game back after testing positive with COVID. So, if Cooks isn’t 100%, there is a chance Collins could come away leading Houston in receiving. The 49ers have allowed the 3rd most FPPG to WRs over the last month so the match-up is nice as well.

Tight Ends to Consider

Tight end targets at high/mid/low price points.

Dallas Goedert, PHI | DK: $5.1k, FD: $5.8k | @ WAS

Goedert leads all tight ends with 11.0 yards per target and he lit up this Washington defense for seven catches and 135 yards a couple of weeks back. The Eagles are the most run-heavy team in the NFL so high volume is never a guarantee for any Philly receiver, but at the very least Goedert makes the most of his opportunities with his big playability.

Gerald Everett, SEA | DK: $4.1k, FD: $5.2k | vs. DET

Everett has been playing around 80% of snaps in the last several games which has helped lead him to regularly scoring double-digit fantasy points. Everett has 10+ DKFP in five of his last seven games and draws a match-up with the Lions who have allowed the 3rd most FPPG to opposing TEs over their last four games.

John Bates, WAS | DK: $2.9k, FD: $4.6k | vs. PHI

Mostly a DraftKings GPP punt here. Bates played on 71% of snaps last week and has been stealing some targets away from Ricky Seals-Jones. Washington can use all the receiving help they can get so it wouldn’t surprise me to see them continue to roll out plenty of two tight end sets. Bates has caught 84.2% of his targets this season so it might be a wise idea to keep throwing the ball in his direction. On the season, the Eagles have allowed the most FPPG to opposing tight ends.

Defenses to Consider

D/ST is a very volatile “position” and shouldn’t take up too much time in your DFS research. However, here are some D/STs I’m on board with this week.

High-End: New England Patriots | DK: $3.9k, FD: $5k | @ NYJ

Value: Indianapolis Colts | DK: $2.9k, FD: $3.9k | vs. LV

Value: Miami Dolphins | DK: $2.8k, FD: $3.6k | @ TEN

Stacks & Bring Backs 🥞

Below are a few team/game stack ideas to consider for this slate. In some examples, I will include a “bring back” option which will feature a normal "QB + Receiver" stack along with a player from the opposing team in the same game that could also benefit if the "QB + Receiver" stack goes off.

QB + WR + Opp Receiver

QB Patrick Mahomes, WR Tyreek Hill, WR Tyler Boyd

QB + WR + Opp Receiver

QB Matthew Stafford, WR Cooper Kupp, TE Mark Andrews

QB + Two Pass Catchers (aka “Double Stack”)

QB Josh Allen, WR Stefon Diggs, WR Gabriel Davis

RB + D/ST

RB Jonathan Taylor, Colts D/ST

Full Team Stack - QB/WR/RB

QB Tom Brady, WR Antonio Brown, RB Ronald Jones II

Value Team Stack

QB Trey Lance, WR Brandon Aiyuk, RB Elijah Mitchell

“Ugly Duckling Game Stack” | QB + WR + Opp Receiver

QB Taylor Heinicke, WR Terry McLaurin, TE Dallas Goedert

Touchdown Call 🏈

Darrel Williams, KC | DK: $5.8k, FD: $6.2k | @ CIN

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Once again, if you have any questions DM me on Twitter or hit me up in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck this week!

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