By: @Ryan_Humphries | LineStar Chat: @N1TRO

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Happy New Year to the LineStar fam! Though the NFL has more or less limped its way to the finish line, the league is set to successfully play all 256 of its scheduled regular season games following the conclusion of this week's match-ups. Week 17 is always a unique one and there is some additional risk associated with playing NFL DFS. Several playoff teams have no reason to risk playing many of their usual starters while others are competing in either “win and in” scenarios, must win scenarios, or have a chance to clinch a better seed... potentially a bye week. For a general overview of which teams have something to play for this week and which teams don’t, feel free to run through this brief article.

Or refer to the image below (via DraftKings.com)

So, to conclude, the three teams we probably want little to no exposure to are Kansas City, Pittsburgh, and Buffalo. Those teams are likely to rest many of their key starters.

There may be a few weather factors to keep an eye on as well:

MIA @ BUF: Looking like there is a strong chance we’ll see a good ol’ fashioned snow game in Buffalo.

DAL @ NYG: Potentially cold and sloppy weather. Temps in the mid-30s with a 50-60% chance of rain throughout the game.

PIT @ CLE: Cold and a lower-end chance of rain (~30%) towards the start of the game.

With just one primetime game on the week 17 schedule, we have a massive 15-game main slate ahead so let’s get into it! Here’s to one more profitable NFL DFS week before we propel into the playoffs!

Games to Target

Tennessee Titans (-7.5) @ Houston Texans | 56 O/U

Implied Points -- TEN: 31.8, HOU: 24.3

Notable Offensive Injuries: RB Duke Johnson (neck) - Questionable

Pretty simply here. The highest total of the week belongs to this game, which gets the added bonus of being played inside a dome. When these teams met back in week six, a combined 78 points were scored in a game that was forced to go into overtime. A similar shootout to that extreme would be a lofty expectation, but this should still be a great game environment with no shortage of fantasy points to be had. Houston has nothing but pride to play for at this point but the Titans clinch the AFC South and a playoff berth with a win. Considering the lack of defense to be had here along with no real significant offensive injuries to speak of, you can feel pretty safe about loading up on both teams in this one.

Score Prediction: Titans - 34, Texans - 30

Atlanta Falcons @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-7) | 50.5 O/U

Implied Points -- ATL: 21.8, TB: 28.8

Notable Offensive Injuries: WR Julio Jones (hamstring) - Out

The Bucs secure the 5th seed with a win over the Falcons which is likely enough motivation for Tom Brady and head coach Bruce Arians to play at full strength this week. Arians has already publicly said they will “play to win” and won’t rest starters on Sunday. Despite this being a lost season, Atlanta has been playing good teams tough lately and have lost by a single score each of their last four games. Just two weeks ago, a combined 58 points were scored in a 27-31 loss to this same Bucs team. Look for Brady and the boys to turn in one last strong performance heading into the playoffs, but don’t expect the Falcons to let them run away with an easy blowout win.

Score Prediction: Buccaneers - 33, Falcons - 24

Quarterbacks to Consider

Potential quarterback targets at high/mid/low price points.

Preferred QB Stud: Lamar Jackson (DK: $8k, FD: $9k) @ CIN

Deshaun Watson | DK: $7.7k, FD: $8.7k | vs. TEN | Cash & GPP

No real reason to worry about Houston not having anything to play for since that has been the case for quite a while. Watson has been a fantasy stud down the stretch and has surpassed 300+ yards passing in five of the last six games and he’s almost always good for 25-35 yards on the ground with a shot at a rushing score. Threw for 335 yards and four TDs against this same Titans defense back in week six. Watson likely has the best floor+ceiling combination among all QBs on the slate.

Aaron Rodgers | DK: $7.4k, FD: $8.5k | @ CHI | Cash & GPP

Rodgers needs six more TDs for 50 on the year. Does he reach that milestone this week? Probably not. But Rodgers has been no stranger to running up the score on the Bears throughout his career and I wouldn’t hesitate to play him in DFS this week. There is plenty at stake on both sides of this game: Green Bay needs a win to hold onto the No. 1 seed and a bye, meanwhile the Bears need a win to earn a postseason berth. While I don’t believe his ceiling is quite as high as the aforementioned Watson, I think the floor may be a tad better. ARod is still a target in all formats.

Kirk Cousins | DK: $6.3k, FD: $7.7k | @ DET | Cash & GPP

Sadly, Dalvin Cook will miss this game due to the passing of his father. Thoughts definitely go out to him. But, with DFS in mind, that should probably put more of a workload on Cousins’ shoulders in an exploitable match-up against a Lions team that gives up the 2nd most FPPG to QBs. When Cook was out in week six versus Atlanta, Cousins threw for 343 yards and three touchdowns. A similar kinda day would not be a major surprise so if you need to save a few bucks at the position, Cousins isn’t a bad option to roll out.

Running Backs to Consider

Potential running back targets at high/mid/low price points.

Preferred RB Stud: Derrick Henry (DK: $9.4k, FD: $10.2k) @ HOU

Nick Chubb | DK: $7.6k, FD: $8.1k | vs. PIT | GPP Only

There are some much safer options to roll with at the RB position this week, but Chubb will be an excellent GPP pivot who likely carries <10% ownership. The Steelers run defense is one of the best in the league but it’s very possible that many starters either sit this game or play two quarters (or less) of football. Chubb has 100+ yards and multi-touchdown upside in this must-win game.

Jonathan Taylor | DK: $7.4k, FD: $8.4k | vs. JAX | Cash & GPP

Taylor has taken on a certified workhorse role down the stretch and is seeing basically 20 touches/game over the last month. The match-up doesn’t get too much better as Jacksonville allows the 4th most FPPG to RBs. The Colts need to win this game to increase their postseason chances and they should likely be able to do that as 14-point favorites. Expect this Colts backfield to be heavily featured in week 17.

Alexander Mattison | DK: $6.1k, FD: $5k | @ DET | Cash & GPP

Mattison (concussion) will head into Sunday without an injury designation and should be in line for plenty of work with Dalvin Cook (personal) out for the season finale. Mattison was a chalk bomb when he got the start back in week six versus Atlanta where he combined for just 30 yards on 11 touches. However, the Falcons have a sneakily good run defense which isn’t the case for the Lions. Detroit allows the 2nd most FPPG to RBs. Mattison’s 20 touch upside clearly makes him one of the best potential values on the board. We’ll see if things work out better for his second start of the season.

Melvin Gordon III | DK: $5.7k, FD: $6.8k | vs. LV | Cash & GPP

With Phillip Lindsay (hip/knee) out, MG3 bombed last week but he still received 16 touches for 79 yards. Unbeknownst to me, he wasn’t targeted at all in the passing game, but hopefully, that will change this week with Lindsay out once again. The Raiders have given up 33.0 DKFP and 139.8 yards per game to RBs over their last four, including just under five receptions per game to opposing backfields in that span. If the Broncos (2.5 point underdogs) can keep this one close or maintain a lead, Gordon could have a pretty massive fantasy day.

Latavius Murray | DK: $5.6k, FD: $5.5k | @ CAR | Cash & GPP

Alvin Kamara (C19) is out this week which makes Murray an obvious play against a bad Panthers run defense. Pretty simple there. The Saints are gunning for the No. 1 seed with a win this week so there’s still plenty of motivation for New Orleans to play at full strength. However, I would imagine that they’d prefer to not have to risk dropping Drew Brees back in the pocket 30+ times.

Update: Latavius Murray is out due to his contact with Kamara. The Saint's are calling up a practice squad running back and moving Ty Montgomery to RB for this week. Keep an eye on this Saints RB news.

Malcolm Brown | DK: $4.3k, FD: $5.6k | vs. ARI | GPP Only

Cam Akers (ankle) may not be able to go this week and Darrell Henderson Jr. (ankle) had to be placed on IR. If Akers is out, that would leave Brown as the last experienced back standing in a game that sends the winner to the playoffs. Both Jared Goff (thumb) and Cooper Kupp (C19) will miss this game, so the Rams are thin on offensive playmakers. But that could only boost Brown’s chances at a major featured role. Still, a risky option but a GPP target for sure if Akers is out. We did see a backup RB (Jeff Wilson Jr.) run all over this Cardinals run defense last week for 22 carries, 183 yards.

Wide Receivers to Consider

Potential wide receiver targets at high/mid/low price points.

Preferred WR Stud: Davante Adams (DK: $9.2k, FD: $9.3k) @ CHI

Calvin Ridley | DK: $8.5k, FD: $8.7k | @ TB | Cash & GPP

No reason to shy away from Ridley here with Julio (hamstring) out yet again. Ridley went for 10/163/1 against this Bucs secondary a couple of weeks ago. The Bucs secondary has struggled heavily as of late and Ridley can likely take advantage of the match-up once again. Ridley leads the NFL with 32 deep ball catches this season.

Justin Jefferson | DK: $7.6k, FD: $8k | @ DET | Cash & GPP

With the value at RB this week, it probably won’t be too difficult to get one or two high-end WRs into your lineups. Jefferson is definitely a target to consider. He’s averaging 11 targets/gm over the last five and, as mentioned above with Cousins, the absence of Dalvin Cook could likely send more work to the passing game. This Lions defense is in shambles and I like Jefferson to break his three week endzone drought on Sunday. Also, hey, he needs 207 yards to set the all-time rookie receiving record… makes ya think. It’s not like the Vikings have anything else to play for.

Curtis Samuel | DK: $5.3k, FD: 6.1k | vs. NO | Cash & GPP

Samuel is being utilized all over the place in this Christian McCaffrey-less Panthers offense. In Carolina’s last five games, Samuel has seen 38 targets along with 13 targets. The Saints are tough against perimeter receivers but Samuel should draw the more advantageous match-up out of the slot where he runs 77% of his routes. The Saints have allowed the 8th most FPPG to slot WRs this season.

CeeDee Lamb | DK: $5.2k, FD: $6.1k | @ NYG | GPP Preferred

The Cowboys have posted 30+ points in three straight games and are looking like a worthwhile offense to invest in for DFS purposes. The Giants have allowed the 7th most FPPG to slot WRs, which is where Lamb has aligned on 93% of his routes. Plenty is at stake in this game as the winner earns a postseason berth IF the Eagles beat Washington on SNF. I’m sure we all can’t wait to see who will finally be crowned the NFC East champion.

Marvin Jones Jr. | DK: $5.1k, FD: $6.1k | vs. MIN | GPP Preferred

QB Matt Stafford is dealing with a number of injuries and is questionable to suit up on Sunday. If he can go, my confidence in Marvin Jones Jr. grows along with it. He has posted some monster games due to the absence of WR Kenny Golladay for much of this season and there may not be much defense played in this match-up which carries the second-highest total of the week. If Stafford is sidelined, I probably won’t be overly interested in rolling out Jones.

Josh Reynolds | DK: $3.2k, FD: $4.9k | vs. ARI | GPP Only

I don’t know much about Rams QB John Wolford, who will get the start this week, but Reynolds has some legitimate double-digit target upside with Kupp (C19) out for the week. He is an especially viable punt on DK at the $3,200 price tag, but I’d still reserve him for GPPs.

Tight Ends to Consider

Tight end targets at high/mid/low price points.

Preferred TE Studs: Darren Waller (DK: $7.1k, FD: $7.8k) @ DEN & George Kittle (DK: $6k, FD: $6.8k) vs. SEA

Mark Andrews | DK: $5.8k, FD: $7.2k | @ CIN | Cash & GPP

Andrews has 60+ yards in five straight games -- a feat that only Travis Kelce has accomplished among TEs this season. The Ravens are also in a must win situation and the Bengals surrender the 5th most FPPG to TEs. Baltimore is a heavy 13 point favorite so they *should* win comfortably. Regardless, Andrews likely brings a solid floor and decent ceiling to the table if you’re spending up at the position this week.

Irv Smith Jr. | DK: $3.9k, FD: $5.6k | @ DET | Cash & GPP

Far too cheap, especially on DraftKings, given his current role along with (once again) the absence of Dalvin Cook in play this Sunday. The Lions rank 31st against TE FPPG allowed over their last four games.

Nick Keizer | DK: $3.2k, FD: $4.5k | vs. LAC | GPP Only

The Chiefs have nothing to gain winning this game so expect most key starters, including Travis Kelce, to be rested this week. You can maybe take a dart throw at Nick Keizer, who is second on the team among TEs in snaps (26.9% snap rate) this season. Could result in a big fat goose egg, but who knows.

Defenses to Consider

D/ST is a very volatile “position” and shouldn’t take up too much time in your DFS research. However, here are two D/STs I’m on board with this week.

Safer but more expensive option:

Indianapolis Colts | DK: $3.9k, FD: $5k | vs. JAX

The Jaguars are like the new Jets in terms of ‘flowcharting’ DSTs against them. The Colts are one of the better defensive units and will face a Jags offense who will be without their best weapon, RB James Robinson. The Colts also have all the motivation in the world to secure a win here.

Riskier but more affordable option:

Cleveland Browns | DK: $2.5k, FD: $4.1k | vs. PIT

We should be here solely for the Myles Garrett vs. Mason Rudolph 2 hype. Also, the Steelers have a 16.5 implied team total -- the second lowest on the slate.

Once again, if you have any questions DM me on Twitter @Ryan_Humphries or tag me in the LineStar NFL chat using @N1TRO. Good luck this week!

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