It’s officially time for a little (or a lot of) chaos with the final week of the NFL regular season upon us. Tread carefully on this 13-game slate!

By: @Ryan_Humphries

Week 18 NFL PreSnap Podcast 🎙️

Catch Tyler Wiemann and Shannon Sommerville's run down on this Sunday's NFL DFS main slate!

Also, for anyone looking to roll out some NFL props this week, be sure to check out the info and videos at the end of this article featuring usage of LineStar's new Prop Edge+ for NFL tool. This tool can help make prop bettors some extra cash -- especially on sites like PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!

A free two-pick PrizePicks "Power Play" is posted at the end of this article as well!

Week 18 DFS Main Slate Rundown 📝

Welcome back for one final regular season NFL Sunday! The week 18 main slate will be loaded up with 13 games for us to dig into. The big thing to keep in mind for this slate is to target teams that have something worth playing for. Many teams are already eyeing the off-season and have no reason to risk playing their key starters much, if at all, this Sunday. Other teams could be in “win and in (the playoffs)” scenarios or they could simply improve their playoff seeding and/or game location with a week 18 victory. Some teams do not necessarily control their own destiny but will still need to snag a win to keep any glimmer of playoff hopes alive.

Before we get into the recommended DFS plays, let’s get a rundown on what each team has at stake on this slate, going on a game-by-game basis:

🎯 = Indicates a team with something to play for AKA a team that we may want to target when looking for preferred DFS plays this week.

MIN (-6) @ CHI | 42.5 O/U

🎯MIN: Can improve to No. 2 seed with a win and 49ers loss.

CHI: QB Justin Fields is already sitting out. They could rest other starters early. In a sense, they have something to LOSE for. CHI can lock up the No. 1 NFL Draft pick with a loss to MIN and a HOU win over IND.

CAR @ NO (-3.5) | 41.5 O/U

CAR: Neither team is playing for anything but pride in this game. Some starters may rest early.

NO: Some starters may rest early.

CLE @ PIT (-2.5) | 40.0 O/U

CLE: They could only play to spoil PIT playoff hopes. Starters may rest early.

🎯PIT: Need to win to keep playoff hopes alive. And, for what it’s worth, a win would also extend HC Mike Tomlin’s record without a losing season to 16 in a row.

HOU @ IND (-2.5) | 38 O/U

HOU: The 2-13-1 Texans can lock up the No. 1 pick with a loss to IND.

IND: Nothing to play for except possibly improving their draft position with a loss. But I expect they’re less likely to “tank” this game than HOU.

BAL @ CIN (-9) | 39.5 O/U

🎯BAL: They've clinched a wild card spot already but the playoff game location could change with a win.

🎯CIN: Playoff location is open for changing with a win.

TB @ ATL (-4) | 40.5 O/U

TB: Locked into the No. 4 seed. Starters could sit or play very limited snaps.

ATL: Nothing to play for but wouldn’t be surprised if they play their typical starters for most/all of the game.

NYJ @ MIA (-3) | 37 O/U

NYJ: Could play spoiler to MIA playoff hopes. Could also give some starters early rest.

🎯MIA: Must win to keep playoff hopes alive.

NE @ BUF (-7) | 43.5 O/U

🎯NE: Must win to keep playoff hopes alive.

🎯BUF: Playoff location is open for changing with a win.

DAL (-7) @ WAS | 40 O/U

🎯DAL: Could still snag the No. 1 seed (home field advantage + bye) with a win, Eagles loss, and 49ers loss/tie. Can clinch the NFC East division with a win and an Eagles loss.

WAS: Starting Sam Howell at QB. Other starters could sit unless they’re just trying to spoil the Cowboys’ No. 1 seed and division hopes.

ARI @ SF (-14) | 39.5 O/U

ARI: They’re already decimated with injuries. Can’t imagine they care to risk any key starters by playing them much in this game.

🎯SF: Can clinch the No. 1 seed (home field advantage + bye) with a win and Eagles loss.

LAC @ DEN (-3) | 40 O/U

🎯(maybe) LAC: Of note, this is a 4:25 ET kickoff. The Chargers may change their approach depending on what happens in the CIN/BAL game (1:00 ET kickoff). If BAL wins, the Chargers may be more motivated to win so they can avoid a BUF/CIN playoff match-up (would play JAX otherwise). If BAL loses, LAC is locked into a match-up with JAX.

DEN: This season has been a wash. Could see some starters resting early here.

LAR @ SEA (-6) | 41.5 O/U

LAR: Some starters could rest early.

🎯SEA: Must win to keep playoff hopes alive.

NYG @ PHI (-14) | 43 O/U

NYG: Nothing to play for. They have already mentioned that they will rest key starters.

🎯PHI: Clinch No. 1 seed (home field advantage + bye) with a win/tie. Clinch the NFC East division with a win/tie OR a DAL loss/tie.

So there you have it. Overall, there are 11 teams on this slate with “something to play for” -- the Chargers being the 12th team since they could have extra motivation to avoid BUF/CIN in the playoffs if the Ravens happen to win earlier in the day. Most of our preferred DFS plays will come from those 11 teams marked with a "🎯" above. Best of luck and tread softly on this slate! Let’s dive into some plays!

Note: There won’t be as much statistical analysis with some of the players highlighted below given how different these match-ups may play out with so many teams likely resting or limiting their starters.

Main slate match-ups with implied point totals and spreads:

Weather Report

As a reminder, weather plays less of a factor in football than it does in other sports but it is still worth making note of any games that could experience wet conditions, high winds, and/or frigid, snowy conditions.

The forecasts can always change so, as always, run a final weather check closer to kickoff!

BAL @ CIN (1:00 ET, 39.5 O/U): Low-end chance for rain.

ARI @ SF (4:25 ET, 39.5 O/U): Moderate chance for rain.

LAR @ SEA (4:25 ET, 41.5 O/U): High chance for rain.

Quarterbacks to Consider

Potential quarterback targets at high/mid/low price points.

Josh Allen, BUF | DK: $8.4k, FD: $8.8k | vs. NE

Realistically, this is one of just two games on the slate where both teams have something at stake so if there is a scenario where we see a “normal” game play out with all starters handling their typical snaps, that should be the case here. Even without injecting any playoff narratives here, the Buffalo Bills should be extremely motivated to play for their teammate Damar Hamlin who, as I’m sure everyone reading knows, suffered cardiac arrest during their week 17 MNF game against the Bengals, which has since been canceled. The great news is that Hamlin is well on his way down a pathway to recovery. No stats or deep analysis is needed -- Josh Allen and the Bills are going to play with a passion at home on Sunday and can also spoil the Patriots’ playoff hopes with a victory.

Geno Smith, SEA | DK: $6k, FD: $7.3k | vs. LAR

The Seahawks do not control their own destiny but they are in a must-win scenario if they want to keep their playoff hopes alive. On top of a win, they’ll also need the Packers to lose to Detroit in the SNF match-up, but since they’ll have no idea what the outcome of that game will be, expect Seattle to play with maximum motivation. Geno Smith has been rock-solid all season. He has led all NFL QBs with a 70.2% comp%, averages 1.8 TD passes per game, and 19.7 FPPG. Normal match-up analysis can be thrown out of the window in week 18 for many teams. In this case, the Rams, who have allowed the 10th fewest FPPG to QBs this season, may elect to sit some of their starters early which would bode well for Geno’s upside.

Brock Purdy, SF | DK: $5.7k, FD: $6.9k | vs. ARI

Purdy has been a quality DFS value option since taking over as the 49ers’ starting QB. He has racked up at least 16.48 FP in all four of his starts. Purdy will face a Cardinals defense that is not only extremely banged up already, but additional starters may rest in what is a meaningless game for them -- if anything, a loss by ARI would either improve or, at the very least, cement a top-four pick in the upcoming NFL Draft. The 49ers (-14) are tied with the Eagles as the heaviest favorites on the slate and they can snag the No. 1 seed (home field advantage + bye) with a win and an Eagles loss (both teams play in the 4:25 ET window). Even if the 49ers jump out to a large lead in this game, I could envision a scenario where they stay aggressive through the air while giving the still-inexperienced Purdy invaluable live game reps as they head into the playoffs.

Running Backs to Consider

Potential running back targets at high/mid/low price points.

Christian McCaffrey, SF | DK: $9.3k, FD: $10k | vs. ARI

The 49ers could beat the Cardinals by double-digits without CMC so I would view him as a GPP-only play for this slate. He could be the one key starter that San Francisco may choose to allocate a lighter workload for in this week’s game plan. With that said, he has been a beast down the stretch, accumulating at least 28.6 DKFP in four of the previous five games. The Cardinals have been getting trucked by RBs (2nd most FPPG allowed to RBs L4Gms) and, if Arizona finds a way to keep this game relatively close, CMC may end up handling close to a normal workload (15-20 carries, 5-10 targets).

For a complete GPP dart throw, perhaps consider Elijah Mitchell (DK: $4k, FD: $5k) who is set to return from the IR this week. Mitchell has missed most of the season with multiple injuries but, when healthy, he’s going to serve as a key backup to McCaffrey. The 49ers may want to get him some significant touches (especially if they jump out to a big early lead) so he can shake some rust off ahead of the postseason.

Austin Ekeler, LAC | DK: $8.9k, FD: $9.4k | @ DEN

Consider Ekeler to be a unique late swap candidate on this slate. If the Ravens beat the Bengals in the 1:00 ET window, then the Chargers would have some extra motivation to win their game in order to avoid matching up with CIN/BUF in the first round of the playoffs. Otherwise, they are locked into a match-up with the Jaguars, who clinched the AFC South/4th seed on Saturday night. Ekeler has been a fantasy stud this season and, if he handles his typical usage, he could put up big numbers and multiple touchdowns on a Broncos’ defense that was good at one point, but has allowed the 3rd most FPPG to RBs over their last four games.

Kenneth Walker III, SEA | DK: $6.4k, FD: $7.7k | vs. LAR

KW3 may not be playing at 100% but, in a must-win game, he is a strong candidate to handle 20+ touches. Over their last four games, the Rams are allowing 129.5 rushing YPG and 1.3 TDs/Gm to opposing RBs along with the 6th most FPPG.

Cam Akers, LAR | DK: $6.2k, FD: $7.3k | @ SEA

We’ll go to the other side of the field from Kenneth Walker III and look at Cam Akers as a viable mid-range DFS option. While it still isn’t pretty, the Rams' offense has operated noticeably better with QB Baker Mayfield at the helm lately and it has directly benefited Cam Akers. Akers has racked up 241 rushing yards, 39 receiving yards, and three touchdowns over the last two weeks and the Seahawks have been one of the best match-ups an RB could ask for all season (SEA: 2nd most FPPG to RBs).

Najee Harris, PIT | DK: $6.1k, FD: $7.2k | vs. CLE

The Steelers have an unlikely pathway to the playoffs, but it’s a pathway nonetheless. That makes a key player like Najee Harris appealing in a positive match-up. Harris has averaged 21.0 touches/gm over the last four and faces a Browns defense that ranks 29th in rush DVOA. In three career games against the Browns, Harris is averaging 22.6 FPPG.

Tyler Allgeier, ATL | DK: $5.6k, FD: $6.5k | vs. TB

Cordarrelle Patterson is still a factor but Allgeier has taken over as the primary Falcons’ ball carrier with 17, 18, and 20 carries in the last three games. The Bucs (locked into the No. 4 seed) have no real reason to give their starters significant snaps so there could be mostly back-ups playing the majority of this game (for Tampa Bay). If you notice, the Falcons are favored by four points in this game so the sportsbooks seem to be making the same assumptions of Tampa Bay sitting/limiting key starters on both sides of the ball.

Jonathan Williams, WAS | DK: $4.3k, FD: $5k | vs. DAL

Tough match-up (DAL: 2nd fewest FPPG to RBs) against a motivated Cowboys team but the Commanders are sitting both Brian Robinson Jr. (knee) and Antonio Gibson (knee/IR). That leaves Jonathan Williams as the likely lead back as one of two healthy backs on the Washington roster -- the other being Jaret Patterson, who has not logged a touch this season.

Wide Receivers to Consider

Potential wide receiver targets at high/mid/low price points.

Justin Jefferson, MIN | DK: $9.1k, FD: $9k | @ CHI

There is some slight motivation for the Vikings to win and snag the No. 2 seed with a 49ers loss (they play later in the afternoon). The 49ers losing doesn’t seem all too likely, so you do have to wonder how much risk versus reward the Vikings see in playing their starters the entire game. But if Kirk Cousins and Justin Jefferson both handle a typical workload, it could mean a big day for the league’s leading receiver. Jefferson, who has 1,771 yards, is 194 yards shy of breaking Calvin Johnson’s single-season receiving record. Breaking that record is an unlikely expectation, but the Bears rank 31st in pass DVOA, they are decimated in the secondary and are expected to be starting three rookie CBs (two undrafted).

AJ Brown, PHI | DK: $8k, FD: $8.3k | vs. NYG

QB Jalen Hurts (shoulder) is expected to play this Sunday and motivation is no issue here as the Eagles are looking to lock up the No. 1 seed and the NFC East division title with a ‘W.’ With the Giants already announcing their intentions to sit key starters, this could be quite the cakewalk for the Eagles. But there is reason to assume that Philadelphia will want to get Jalen Hurts back in top form after missing the last couple of games. Perhaps they jump out to a huge lead and can coast in the second half or fourth quarter, but if that is the case, AJ Brown may have already done plenty of damage by then anyway. Brown owns one of the top redzone target shares (34.9%) in the NFL and the Eagles won't have any problems moving the ball against the Giants' reserves.

DK Metcalf, SEA | DK: $6.7k, FD: $7.2k | vs. LAR

The “must-win” mentality for the Seahawks in this game definitely plays a factor here. With that in mind, it’s not a bad match-up for Metcalf (83% perimeter%) against a Rams pass defense that has allowed the 3rd most FPPG to perimeter WRs this season. You also have to question whether or not starting perimeter CBs Jalen Ramsey and Troy Hill will play beyond the first half or even after the first couple of series. WR Tyler Lockett is expected to play but likely isn’t going to be at 100%, so Metcalf sets up as a solid floor/ceiling play and he owns an absolutely elite 39.4% redzone TGT%.

Garrett Wilson, NYJ | DK: $5.8k, FD: $7.1k | @ MIA

With Mike White ruled out, the Jets will now turn to Joe Flacco as their starting QB. Anyone but Zach Wilson at QB is a good thing for Garrett Wilson’s fantasy outlook. When Flacco started the Jets’ first three games of the season, he targeted the star rookie 33 times which resulted in a combined 18 receptions, 214 yards, and two TDs. The Jets have nothing to play for, outside of spoiling the Dolphins’ playoff hopes, but they may be content with giving their young star wide receiver his usual snap share on Sunday, which would make Wilson a strong DFS play out of the mid-range.

Jakobi Meyers, NE | DK: $5.1k, FD: $6.5k | @ BUF

Meyers owns a “questionable” designation due to a shoulder injury but he has been able to practice this week so he should be out there for the Patriots’ biggest game of the year. It’s been an emotional week for the Buffalo players and they will be highly motivated to win this game as well. But the fact is that they’ve been rather mediocre against the pass lately and over the last eight weeks they have allowed the 4th most FPPG to slot WRs, which is where Meyers operates 70% of the time. Meyers has found the endzone in back-to-back games while commanding a team-leading 25.8% TGT% in that span.

Drake London, ATL | DK: $4.9k, FD: $6.5k | vs. TB

It’s still not an ideal QB situation, but since Desmond Ridder took over at QB, London has owned a monstrous 34.2% TGT% and 46.1% AirYard%. It wouldn’t be a surprise if London commands double-digit targets in this game which is likely to be played against quite a few Bucs backup players.

Rashid Shaheed, NO | DK: $4.2k, FD: $5.8k | vs. CAR

Shaheed has stepped into the No. 2 WR role in recent weeks and is averaging 4.3 receptions for 71.5 YPG over the Saints’ last four contests. He has caught 83.3% of his targets this season while averaging a stellar 15.1 yards per target. The Panthers will be without their top two perimeter CBs (Jaycee Horn & Donte Jackson) and they were already giving up a ton of production to outside WRs before those guys got hurt (3rd most FPPG to perimeter WRs L4Wks, most FPPG to WRs overall L4Wks).

Tight Ends to Consider

Tight end targets at high/mid/low price points.

George Kittle, SF | DK: $6k, FD: $7.6k | vs. ARI

Kittle and QB Brock Purdy have established quite a rapport lately. Kittle has five touchdowns and 20 targets over his last three games and draws an absolute dream match-up. The Cardinals, who again are extremely depleted on both sides of the ball, have given up the 2nd most FPPG to TEs this season. When Kittle faced them down in Mexico in week 11, he caught 4-of-6 targets for 84 yards and two touchdowns.

Tyler Higbee, LAR | DK: $4.4k, FD: $5.6k | @ SEA

Tight ends against Seattle have been a go-to “flowchart play” all season. They’ve allowed THE most FPPG to the position, including an NFL-high 14.7 yards per TE catch. Higbee was dealing with an elbow injury last week and had a rather quiet game but in the two games prior, he was Baker Mayfield’s favorite target -- in weeks 15 and 16, he combined for 13 receptions on 16 targets for 121 yards and three touchdowns. The Rams are only looking to play spoiler this week but you know Baker Mayfield still has a sizeable chip on his shoulder as he looks to prove his worth as a starting NFL QB. So, if Higbee plays a full snap workload, he’s likely going to remain a primary target.

Albert Okwuegbunam, DEN | DK: $2.9k, FD: $5k | vs. LAC

Well, I haven’t had to struggle to spell this man’s name in a while. The Broncos are thin at tight end with Greg Dulcich on IR while Eric Saubert and Eric Tomlinson both carry “questionable” designations into Sunday. Saubert and Tomlinson both played last week, but with Dulcich out, Albert “O” led all Broncos TEs with a 53% snap% and caught three of six targets for 45 yards and a TD. The Chargers do match up well with tight ends but if the Ravens (+9 underdogs) lose to the Bengals in the 1:00 ET window, Los Angeles won’t have much reason to give their starters any extended run since they’ll be locked into a playoff match-up with Jacksonville. There are clearly safer TE options, but if you need the salary savings for a riskier option that could pay off, Okwuegbunam may be your guy.

Defenses to Consider

D/ST is a very volatile “position” and shouldn’t take up too much time in your DFS research. However, here are some D/STs I’m on board with this week.

Pay-Up D/ST: San Francisco 49ers | DK: $4.1k, FD: $4.9k | vs. ARI

DraftKings Value: New York Jets | DK: $2.6k, FD: $4.5k | @ MIA

Value D/ST: Minnesota Vikings | DK: $2.9k, FD: $3.7k | @ CHI

Value D/ST: Atlanta Falcons | DK: $2.4k, FD: $3.4k | vs. TB

Stacks & Bring Backs 🥞

Below are a few team/game stack ideas to consider for this slate. In some examples, I will include a “bring back” option which will feature a normal "QB + Receiver" stack along with a player from the opposing team in the same game that could also benefit should the primary "QB + Receiver" stack go off.

QB + WR/TE + Opp Receiver (Game Stack)

Josh Allen, Stefon Diggs, Jakobi Meyers

QB + WR/TE + Opp Receiver (Game Stack)

Geno Smith, DK Metcalf, Tyler Higbee

QB + Two Pass Catchers (Double Stack)

Jalen Hurts, AJ Brown, DeVonta Smith

QB + Two Pass Catchers (Double Stack)

Joe Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins

Full Team Stack - QB + WR/TE + RB

Brock Purdy, George Kittle, Christian McCaffrey

Value Team Stack

Desmond Ridder, Drake London, Tyler Allgeier

“Ugly Duckling Game Stack” | QB + WR + Opp WR

Joe Flacco, Garrett Wilson, Tyreek Hill

Touchdown Call 🏈

Najee Harris, PIT | DK: $6.1k, FD: $7.2k | vs. CLE 

Reminder: Follow @LineStarApp on Twitter and retweet the weekly Touchdown Calls tweet! Three retweeters are randomly selected and assigned a player from the TD calls between myself, @FlatTyler83, and @ShannonOnSports. If your player scores a touchdown, you’ll win your choice of cash (via PayPal) or a one-month subscription to LineStar!

PrizePicks Sunday NFL Power Play ⚡

This is a two-pick NFL "Power Play" I have over on PrizePicks. Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but these props did stand out so I'll be rolling it out with confidence! If it hits, it will return a 3x payout!

Geno Smith MORE than 14.5 Rush Yards

Vikings D/ST MORE than 2.5 Sacks

INSIDER INJURY KNOWLEDGE FROM PRO SPORTS TEAM DOCTORS TO GIVE YOU A WINNING EDGE!

Special Limited Time Offer to Linestar Customers

For one free week of access to SIC Picks valued at $49.99*, go to sicscore.com/upgrade and follow the prompts to for a Weekly Pass. Be sure to apply the coupon code: LINESTAR for the discount. Offer ends 12/31/2022. Find out more on SIC Picks here!

*Note: After 7 days a weekly SIC Picks subscription will continue at $49.99 unless you cancel. You will be notified via email 24-48 hours prior to the renewal with the option to cancel at any time by logging into your account and clicking Cancel Subscription in the Subscription Settings area of the account page or emailing [email protected].

🆕 Props Edge+ 🆕

In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props Edge+ for NFL – available for LineStar Premium users! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!

Speaking of props, put the Props Edge+ tool to use by signing up for PrizePicks (Promo code: BETFULLY) or Underdog (Promo code: LINESTAR). 100% match on deposits up to $100 PLUS a free two-month subscription to LineStar Premium. Many people may not realize that you can legally place prop bets in most states using UnderDog (or PrizePicks) – it’s called Pick'Em, and it’s incredibly easy.

Once again, if you have any questions DM me on Twitter or hit me up in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck this week!

Let us know if you enjoyed the issue with a Yes or No below!