Top NFL DFS Plays Week #18 (Main Slate) | Targeting Teams (and Players) with Something at Stake!

January 08, 2022

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It’s been a helluva regular season but all good things must come to an end. The week 18 main slate will be loaded up with 13 games for us to dig into. The big thing to keep in mind for this slate is to target teams that have something worth playing for. Teams could be in “win or go home” scenarios, “win and in” scenarios, or they could simply improve their playoff seeding with a victory. Several teams don’t necessarily control their own destiny but will still need to snag a win to keep any glimmer of playoff hopes alive.

Most teams who are already eliminated are expected to continue playing their normal starters. They can use all of the in-game experience they can get, after all. The main teams who may rest their starters on this slate include the Packers (already clinched No. 1 NFC seed) and the Bengals (unless Kansas City loses to the Broncos in Saturday’s game, which would open up the door for Cincinnati to win the No. 1 AFC seed).

Update: Chiefs won while I was writing this so expect the Bengals to continue with their plans to rest many (or all) of their starters on Sunday.

No doubt it will be a wild Sunday so let’s get into it! Good luck, guys!

Main slate match-ups with implied point totals and spreads:

Quarterbacks to Consider

Potential quarterback targets at high/mid/low price points.

Kyler Murray, ARI | DK: $7.4k, FD: $8.4k | vs. SEA

The Cardinals still have a shot at winning the NFC West with a Rams loss (both teams play at the same time) to the 49ers so improved playoff seeding should keep Arizona’s foot on the gas in this game. Since returning from injury in week 13, Murray has shown off his patented rushing ability and has run for at least 44 yards in four of the last five games. Seattle has nothing to play for, besides pride, but I expect they’ll put up a fight and for Arizona to stay aggressive for most of this game.

Taysom Hill, NO | DK: $6.2k, FD: $7.7k | @ ATL

The Saints still have playoff hopes pending a win over Atlanta and a 49ers loss to the Rams. Taysom Hill boosts his fantasy floor with excellent rushing upside (63 YPG over his last four starts). He’ll draw a plus match-up against a Falcons defense which has allowed the 4th most FPPG to opposing QBs this season, including the 3rd most rushing YPG allowed to the position.

Jared Goff, DET | DK: $5.4k, FD: $6.8k | vs. GB

This play is not for the faint of heart but Goff is listed as “probable” after missing the last two games with a knee injury. The Packers have locked up the NFC’s top seed so, while their starters may play a series or two in order to stay ‘fresh’ mentally, it’s very possible that Goff will get to throw against plenty of second and third-stringers in this game. Goff won’t break the bank and he also eclipsed the 20 fantasy point mark in two of his last three starts, prior to sustaining the knee injury. He also has one of the biggest late-season stars to throw to with breakout rookie WR Amon-Ra St. Brown posting some eye-popping numbers over the last five weeks.

Running Backs to Consider

Potential running back targets at high/mid/low price points.

Jonathan Taylor, IND | DK: $9.3k, FD: $10.2k | @ JAX

Taylor has been a no-brainer play for nearly the entire season but he should be in line for another massive workload considering what’s at stake. For the Colts and their playoff hopes, it’s simple -- win and in. They could still get in with a loss, but obviously, that will mean their destiny is not self-controlled. Indianapolis is a massive 15-point road favorite here and there is certainly some blowout concern. However, the odds are JT will have done his fair share of damage if the Colts ever decide to take him off the field in this game. Opposing RBs have averaged 27.8 carries/gm against the Jags in their last four games; expect Taylor to handle nearly 100% of all Colts RB touches in this one.

Devin Singletary, BUF | DK: $6k, FD: $6.7k | vs. NYJ

Singletary’s 81% snap share over the last month ranks 3rd among all NFL RBs. He’s averaging 18.3 touches/gm in this recent four game stretch to go along with four touchdowns. The Bills must win to keep their lead in the AFC East (Patriots play at the same time) so the starters should receive their normal workload here. As stated all season, there is no better match-up for an RB than the New York Jets as they have allowed the most FPPG to opposing RBs this season.

Sony Michel, LAR | DK: $6k, FD: $7.7k | vs. SF

Michel is one of those two RBs who have a higher snap share than the aforementioned Singletary over the last month with a massive 90% snap%. He’s pretty much locked into around 20 touches or more and while it is a difficult match-up against a strong 49ers run defense, the fact that he’ll rarely come off the field will keep him firmly in play for DFS purposes. The Rams need a win to lock up the NFC West championship and the No. 2 seed behind the Packers.

Ke’Shawn Vaughn, TB | DK: $5.3k, FD: $5.9k | vs. CAR

No Fournette (IR), no Gio Bernard (IR), and now no Ronald Jones II (ankle, already ruled out). Vaughn and journeyman Le’Veon Bell remain standing as the top two remaining healthy RBs in the Bucs backfield. Neither guy is a “safe” DFS play but Vaughn may get the first crack at RB1 duties here. He has mixed in some explosive plays this season in limited opportunities which have led to a strong 5.8 YPC average. The Bucs are motivated to play for seeding purposes in this game and are eight-point home favorites over the Panthers who have been an overall positive match-up for RBs in recent weeks.

Wide Receivers to Consider

Potential wide receiver targets at high/mid/low price points.

Cooper Kupp, LAR | DK: $9.7k, FD: $10k | vs. SF

Making the playoffs are more important than breaking individual records… at the same time, Kupp needs 12 catches and 136 yards to break the single-season record for receptions and receiving yards. With the season he has had, both milestones are quite achievable. The 49ers have been middle-of-the-pack against slot WRs this season and Kupp leads the NFL with a monstrous 34.6% target%.

Amon-Ra St. Brown, DET | DK: $6.8k, FD: $7.5k | vs. GB

St. Brown is apparently “QB proof” as he still posted two massive performances even with backup Tim Boyle under center the last couple of weeks. As mentioned in the QB section with the [likely] returning Jared Goff, this is a spot where the Lions are expected to go up against plenty of backups on the Packers side since Green Bay has no real incentive to play their starters. ARSB is averaging 11.4 targets/gm over his last five starts.

Christian Kirk, ARI | DK: $6k, FD: $6.2k | vs. SEA

Kirk has been operating as the WR1 in place of DeAndre Hopkins who hasn’t played since week 14. Kirk has seen an average of 9.0 targets/gm in his last four starts which he has turned into 6.3 catches/gm and 76.8 YPG. The one touchdown in that span feels a bit “unlucky” considering the raw point potential which this Cardinals team possesses. Kirk aligns primarily in the slot and the Seahawks have allowed the 4th most FPPG to slot WRs this season.

Darnell Mooney, CHI | DK: $5.9k, FD: $6.3k | @ MIN

Andy Dalton is set to start in the Bears season finale which bodes well for Chicago’s top receiver, Darnell Mooney. In the last four games where Dalton has either started or saw significant playing time (weeks 11, 12, 13, & 17), Mooney has averaged 11 targets/gm. Minnesota’s pass defense has been Swiss cheese all season which has led to them allowing the most FPPG to opposing WRs. Mooney could produce a major stat line here if he does indeed see double-digit targets once again with Dalton in at QB.

Cyril Grayson, TB | DK: $4.4k, FD: $5.6k | vs. CAR

Grayson appears to be the lead candidate to take on significant snaps following the Chris Godwin injury and Antonio Brown departure. Grayson has back-to-back weeks with 81 receiving yards and was the hero of week 17 where he brought in the go-ahead touchdown with 15 seconds left in regulation to put the Bucs up 26-24 over the Jets (prior to a successful two-point conversion). Grayson played on 64% of snaps last week and we can likely consider that his baseline snap rate considering Antonio Brown was in on 35% of snaps prior to his infamous mid-game “peace out” exit.

Tight Ends to Consider

Tight end targets at high/mid/low price points.

Rob Gronkowski, TB | DK: $6.3k, FD: $7.4k | vs. CAR

Gronk felt like a fairly solid play considering how safe his target floor should be with all of those other Bucs receiving threats being absent for various reasons. But shout out to LineStar user “iknowthis” for mentioning the following contract incentives which Gronk has going into this game; Gronk can earn an extra $500k ($1.5M total) if he hits any (or all) of the following stats: 85 receiving yards, seven catches, and three touchdowns. The yards and receptions are extremely doable and we know Gronk has not been a stranger to multi-touchdown games throughout his career. Tom Brady always looks to hook up his boys so be on the lookout for a big day from Gronk on Sunday.

Zach Ertz, ARI | DK: $5.3k, FD: $5.6k | vs. SEA

Ertz is averaging 10 targets/gm over the last four games and is a prime candidate for positive touchdown regression after riding a five-game touchdown drought. Those consistently high target numbers will lead to TDs eventually and he already brings a solid floor to the table while playing around 90% of snaps week in and week out.

John Bates, WAS | DK: $3k, FD: $4.6k | @ NYG

Bates was spotlighted here as a possible tight end punt (on DraftKings) last week and he’ll earn those honors once again now that Ricky Seals-Jones has been placed on IR. Bates played 72% of snaps last week and caught 3-of-4 targets for 35 yards -- nothing too impressive but that was also with RSJ playing 91% of snaps and commanding a couple of targets himself. The only other remaining healthy tight end on the Washington roster is Temarrick Hemmingway who was just elevated from the practice squad this week and has one catch for 10 yards this season.

Defenses to Consider

D/ST is a very volatile “position” and shouldn’t take up too much time in your DFS research. However, here are some D/STs I’m on board with this week.

Spend-Up Option: Buffalo Bills | DK: $3.7k, FD: $4.5k | vs. NYJ

DK Preferred: New Orleans Saints | DK: $3.4k, FD: $4.9k | @ ATL

Value Option: Detroit Lions | DK: $2.4k, FD: $3.2k | vs. GB

Stacks & Bring Backs 🥞

Below are a few team/game stack ideas to consider for this slate. In some examples, I will include a “bring back” option which will feature a normal "QB + Receiver" stack along with a player from the opposing team in the same game that could also benefit if the "QB + Receiver" stack goes off.

QB + WR + Opp Receiver

QB Tom Brady, TE Rob Gronkowski, WR DJ Moore

QB + WR + Opp Receiver

QB Matthew Stafford, WR Cooper Kupp, WR Deebo Samuel

QB + Two Pass Catchers (aka “Double Stack”)

QB Kyler Murray, WR Christian Kirk, TE Zach Ertz

RB + D/ST

RB Devin Singletary + Bills D/ST

Full Team Stack - QB/WR/RB

QB Josh Allen, WR Stefon Diggs, RB Devin Singletary

Value Team Stack

QB Taylor Heinicke, TE John Bates, RB Antonio Gibson

“Ugly Duckling Game Stack” | QB + WR + Opp Receiver

QB Jared Goff, WR Amon-Ra St. Brown, WR Equanimeous St. Brown

Touchdown Call 🏈

Rob Gronkowski, TB | DK: $6.3k, FD: $7.4k | vs. CAR

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Once again, if you have any questions DM me on Twitter or hit me up in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck this week!

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