By: @Ryan_Humphries | LineStar Chat: @N1TRO

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Week one is in the books and now we have 60 minutes worth of knowledge on each team moving forward. If you soak in a lot of weekly fantasy football content from all corners of the NFL media landscape, you’ll probably notice many experts, analysts, and touts reiterate one thing heading into week two: “Don’t overreact.” It’s a very valid point to drive home. One week won't determine the identity of a team nor the role of every player. However, we still have to take some of what we saw from last week’s performances and apply certain info into our thinking for this week. It will still take a solid month into the season before we can really start finding more firmly cemented trends and tendencies from each NFL team, but for now we’ll work with what we’ve got. There are 13 games to tackle for this week two NFL main slate so let’s get busy!

Match-ups with implied point totals and moneylines:

Games to Target

Atlanta Falcons @ Dallas Cowboys (-4.5) | 54 O/U

ATL: 24.8 implied points | DAL: 29.3 implied points

Last week the two games featured in this section were TB @ NO (48 O/U) and SEA @ ATL (49 O/U). Two similarities between those games? Both the overs hit comfortably (TB/NO: 57 pts., SEA/ATL: 63 pts.) and both games were played inside a dome. You also need strong offenses playing each other in order to benefit from the “more points are scored in domed stadiums” narrative, and that was the case last week. This Falcons/Cowboys game sets up in a similar fashion and checks in with the highest total of the week. Both of these teams also ranked inside the top three in terms of offensive pace in week one: DAL - 20.59 sec/play (1st), ATL - 22.39 sec/play (3rd). Now, both teams were playing from behind quite a bit in their respective week one games. But it’s always nice to know which teams are willing to move the ball at a fast pace and which teams aren't. It’s pretty straightforward, but a game with a fast offensive pace results in more offensive plays and possessions, which theoretically provides more opportunities for fantasy point production. There are a myriad of viable options in this match-up so I would absolutely look to grab some exposure here.

Washington Football Team @ Arizona Cardinals (-7) | 46.5 O/U

WAS: 19.8 implied points | ARI: 26.8 implied points

Moving forward each week I’ll be looking to state a fairly obvious game that could be worth loading up on (like ATL @ DAL) and one somewhat less-obvious game that could provide a ton of DFS goodness. A game can go overlooked for a number of reasons but almost any match-up can explode into a shootout in the NFL, under the right circumstances. This game between Washington and Arizona may not be a sexy one but there should be some highly viable DFS options to roll out on both sides of the ball. This is also yet another match-up taking place inside a dome between two teams who played at a high offensive pace in week one: ARI - 23.28 sec/play (5th), WAS - 24.36 sec/play (7th).

I’m not sure if I’m too in love with the backfields on either of these teams this week. Arizona gave a noteworthy amount of work to Chase Edmonds in week one, which obviously hurts Kenyan Drake’s upside if that trend continues -- and Kyler Murray is going to do his fair share of running the ball as well. Also, Washington has what may be a top five NFL defensive line that will cause problems for many O-lines and opposing rushing attacks this year. As for the Football Team’s backfield, they let Peyton Barber carry the ball 17 times for 29 yards (1.7 ypc) in week one. Peyton Barber should not be a guy who gets that much volume in an NFL game at this point. Eventually, I’m guessing Antonio Gibson takes over the vast majority of work in this backfield but I’m already with taking a “wait and see” approach for now. With all of that said, I believe the QB/WR/TE options are the players to really consider in this game.

Quarterbacks to Consider

Potential quarterback targets at high/mid/low price points.

Patrick Mahomes | DK: $7.7k, FD: $9k | @ LAC | GPP Preferred

The Chargers held Mahomes to 356 yards passing, 80 yards rushing, and two TDs in two games last season while picking him off twice. After a ho-hum 20.4 fantasy point game against Houston last week, I can understand why people aren’t really looking to spend up on him this week. However, if he’s going to be <10% owned in tournaments, everyone knows what kind of ceiling Mahomes has, so he’s worth a look in GPPs. You never know when he’s going to go off for one of those 400+ yard, 4 TD kinda days and he’s always a threat to add a little value on the ground as well.

Kyler Murray | DK: $6.1k, FD: $8k | vs. WAS | Cash & GPP

As I mentioned with Cam Newton last week, this is more of the range I’m comfortable with when it comes to finding my cash game QB. And targeting QBs who can get me some rushing yardage is going to be an ongoing theme as well. Not only do rushing yards help with a quarterback’s fantasy floor, but if you simply consider the fact that fantasy scoring weighs 50 yards rushing the exact same as 125 yards passing, you’ll realize why running QBs are so highly coveted. Murray got 91 yards on the ground last week against the 49ers. While we shouldn’t *expect* that kind of yardage every week, it reiterated the skillset that Murray showed off all throughout college and in his rookie year last season. That athletic Washington defensive line could also force Murray into scrambling a bit more as well.

Carson Wentz | DK: $6k, FD: $7.3k | vs. LAR | GPP Preferred

Wentz was hounded by the Washington D-line all afternoon last week, and that porous Eagles O-line will have to contend with Aaron Donald this Sunday. But this could be one of those situations where we shouldn’t overreact too much from week one. Wentz still managed to come away with 16 DKFP against Washington, which is the sort of fantasy outcome that isn’t going to completely kill your lineup at these prices. Between the speedy rookie WR Jalen Reagor and longtime burner Desean Jackson, Wentz has a pair of legitimate big play threats at his disposal. The tight end combo of Dallas Goedert and Zach Ertz can also be super effective, specifically in redzone situations. After missing week one, the Eagles should also have talented second-year RB Miles Sanders returning to action out of the backfield, which should open up more exploitable coverage opportunities for Wentz. I’m not hitting the panic button on this Philly passing attack just yet.

Running Backs to Consider

Potential running back targets at high/mid/low price points.

Ezekiel Elliot | DK: $8.2k, FD: $8.6k | vs. ATL | Cash & GPP

Elliot looked to be in mid-season form on Sunday night as he handled 25 touches (22 rush, 3 rec) and racked up 137 total yards with a pair of scores. It’s important to remember that DFS pricing for the following week is released around the time the 4pm ET games are still being played. If something like an injury or strong performance occurs during those later games, along with SNF and MNF, the following week’s DFS prices aren’t going to be adjusted to reflect that. Elliot gets a juicy match-up with a Falcons defense that gave up 35 points to Seattle last week and his DFS salaries should realistically be a few hundred dollars higher.

Derrick Henry | DK: $7.9k, FD: $8.3k | vs. JAX | Cash & GPP

In the same vein as Zeke, Henry is another bellcow RB whose DFS salaries could be a few hundred dollars too cheap this week since his Monday Night Football performance isn’t being factored in. Henry didn’t have a phenomenal day on the ground against Denver, as he averaged just 3.7 ypc and was held scoreless. But the name of the game here is “volume,” and he certainly got plenty of that. The Titans fed Henry a whopping 31 carries and he caught all three of his targets. His 97.1% RB Touch Share quite easily ranked 1st among all week one RBs. Now the Titans will host the Jaguars at home as nine point favorites and, if the game script plays out as expected, Henry should be locked into a 20 touch floor once again. I also wouldn’t expect him to be held scoreless for two weeks straight.

Austin Ekeler | DK: $6.5k, FD: $6.9k | vs. KC | GPP Preferred

Some people may be panicking on Ekeler’s receiving upside, after he saw just one target in week one, but I don’t think we have any reason to worry just yet. Ekeler still garnered 19 rush attempts and gained 84 yards, which was the eighth-most among week one RBs. The week one game script versus the Bengals was also fairly neutral, as neither LA or Cincy led by more than one score at any point during a sluggish 16-13 game. The script should flip this week as the Chargers will host the Chiefs as nine point home underdogs. In 2019, no other team gave up more receiving yards to RBs than Kansas City and it doesn’t take an expert to assume the Chargers could be playing from behind for the majority of this game. The comments from earlier this week when Chargers HC Anthony Lynn alluded to Ekeler’s pass-catching opportunities possibly being reduced due to their new offensive scheme are concerning, and rookie RB Joshua Kelly handling goal line work in more of the “Melvin Gordon role” from 2019 is something to monitor going forward. But it would be a crime to give a shifty and explosive RB like Austin Ekeler only one or two targets week-to-week and he should still have a role in the redzone. I’ll take some chances on him in GPPs this week.

Jonathan Taylor | DK: $5.7k, FD: $5.8k | vs. MIN | Cash & GPP

With Marlon Mack (torn Achilles) unfortunately seeing his season come to a very early end, this is Taylor’s backfield to lose. I’m not going to overreact to the Nyheim Hines week one performance (7 rush for 28 yds, 8 tgt/8 rec, 45 yds, two total TDs). He will have a defined role, but Taylor should see almost all of the early down work as well as most (or all) goal line carries. It’s also a positive sign that he was targeted by Philip Rivers six times in week one, and caught all six for 67 yards. If you’ve been a DFS or fantasy football player for a little while, you know how much Rivers loves checking down to his RBs. While the performance by Aaron Rodgers against the Vikings last week was the main focus, Minnesota’s defense also allowed 4.9 ypc on the ground. Taylor may be a little chalky this week but should make for a solid cash game option. Also, a sorta fun stat, Taylor registered a speed of 20.99 mph on a run last week which was the fourth-fastest ball carrier speed in the NFL in week one.

James Robinson | DK: $4.4k, FD: $5.3k | @ TEN | GPP Preferred

James Robinson and Derrick Henry were the only week one RBs to handle 100% of their team’s rush attempts. Robinson also saw an 85% RB Touch Share, which trailed only Zeke Elliot (86.2%), Saquon Barkley (91.3%), CMC (92.9%), and Henry (97.1%). For now, he is the clear RB1 in Jacksonville. The Jags will be nine point underdogs, which may produce a negative game script for the run game, but Robinson also ran 11 pass routes in week one (caught one pass for 28 yards) while Chris Thompson ran 12. If that sort of trend continues, Robinson may be involved no matter the score. Tennessee may end up being a fairly solid run defense but Melvin Gordon was able to average 5.2 ypc against them on Monday night and had a couple chunk yardage plays. For the volume opportunity and low salaries, Robinson is easily in play this week.

Wide Receivers to Consider

Potential wide receiver targets at high/mid/low price points.

DeAndre Hopkins | DK: $7.7k, FD: $8.3k | vs. WAS | Cash & GPP

Davante Adams (DK: $8.1k, FD: $8.6k) is going to be a top receiver worth spending up on basically every week, but if you’re spending up on a stud WR, you probably can’t go wrong by saving a bit of salary and rolling with Hopkins. His 16 targets against the 49ers in week one represented a massive 43% target share, as he tallied 151 yards and came a few inches short from a fourth quarter touchdown. That sort of target share is obviously not sustainable, but it’s clear that he has quickly acclimated to his new team in Arizona. The Cardinals will likely find it easier to move the ball through the air against Football Team, as opposed to on the ground, and Hopkins is likely locked into 10+ targets most every week.

Adam Thielen | DK: $7.2k, FD: $7.3k | @ IND | GPP Preferred

Thielen saw 55.47% of his team’s targeted air yards in week one (4th most). While this game with Indy probably won’t be quite the same kind of high-scoring affair that the Vikings had with the Packers last week, Thielen is going to be Kirk Cousin’s first read on many pass plays and there’s obviously a major void to fill with Stefon Diggs now in Buffalo. Much of Thielen’s week one production (along with his two TDs) came late in the game when Minnesota was trailing by multiple scores, so he certainly benefited from that ‘garbage time-ish’ sort of game script. Kirk Cousins also wasn’t really effective passing the ball until that fourth quarter, so if he plays a more complete game start to finish, it isn’t like Thielen is going to be reliant on that same game script.

Allen Robinson II | DK: $6.4k, FD: $7k | vs. NYG | Cash & GPP

Unfortunately, Robinson has to catch passes from the ever-so erratic Mitch Trubisky, but he’s going to see a high target share essentially every week. The Giants gave up the third-most fantasy points to WRs in week one (53.7 DKFP/44.7 FDFP) and Robinson should see around ten targets against that exploitable defense. For now, I’m going to ignore the buzz on Robinson requesting a trade out of Chicago and removing anything Bears-related from his social media. That shouldn’t affect the game this week.

DJ Moore | DK: $6.3k, FD: $6.8k | @ TB | GPP Preferred

Expect Moore to carry low ownership this week as people opt to flock toward safer options priced around him. Despite a quiet week one (4 rec, 54 yds), Moore still saw nine targets from Teddy Bridgewater. The Panthers may find it harder than usual to lean on Christian McCaffrey this week as that Tampa Bay run defense was stout all of last season and held CMC to two of his least productive games in 2019 (1.8 ypc on 38 rushes). They gave up just 2.4 ypc to New Orleans last week, and considering Carolina is a nine point underdog, expect the passing game to be forced into heavier volume.

Darius Slayton | DK: $5k, FD: $5.3k | @ CHI | Cash & GPP

Slayton looked to be the clear cut WR1 on the Giants team when he caught 6-of-9 targets for 102 yards and two TDs against a very tough Steelers defense. He is another guy who benefits from a strong Monday Night Football performance and these current salaries would absolutely be higher if he had that same sort of performance prior to DFS salaries being released. Slayton led the Giants WRs with an 85.3% snap count and the match-up with Chicago shouldn’t be too worrisome after allowing 297 yards passing to the Lions in week one. Slayton gets an additional bump if WR Golden Tate (hamstring) doesn’t go, or is limited, this week.

Parris Campbell | DK: $4.5k, FD: $5.3k | vs. MIN | Cash & GPP

We’re obviously only going off of one game, but for now, Campbell seems to be solidified as the WR2 in Indy right behind TY Hilton. Both receivers saw nine week one targets and Campbell actually out-snapped Hilton 61 to 59. The Vikings secondary just got carved up by Aaron Rodgers for 364 yards through the air last week (315 yards from WRs). In total, they gave up 82.4 DKFP (2nd most) and 68.4 FDFP (1st most) to WRs in that game. Obviously, we should expect that secondary to not get demolished nearly as bad by Phillip Rivers, but for these low salaries Campbell should possess a fairly solid floor with some promising upside.

Scotty Miller | DK: $4.1k, FD: $5.2k | vs. CAR | Cash & GPP

This play mostly depends on the availability of Chris Godwin (concussion) and Mike Evans (hamstring). Both WRs are currently questionable for the week and Evans has only gotten in limited practices as of Thursday, while Godwin has not yet been cleared for practice at all. I’d expect Evans to play but Godwin’s outlook is a bit murkier. Keep an eye on the Friday practice reports. With both guys suiting up in week one, Miller still saw six targets and caught five for 73 yards. The Bucs should continue to try to utilize his 4.39 speed against a terrible Panthers defense.

Tight Ends to Consider

Tight end targets at high/mid/low price points.

Mark Andrews | DK: $6.3k, FD: $7.5k | @ HOU | Cash & GPP

Tight ends who see consistently good volume on teams that dominates in the redzone are always solid investments in DFS. Obviously we can’t look for Andrews to catch two touchdowns every week but he’s one of the safest bets at this position to find the endzone considering the Ravens are second on the slate with a 29 implied point total. Travis Kelce went for a 6/50/1 statline against the Texans defense in week one and a similar (or better) result could certainly be in the cards for Andrews.

Hayden Hurst | DK: $4.6k, FD: $5.7k | @ DAL | GPP Preferred

Plenty of people, including myself, got burned a bit by Hurst last week, who only caught 3-of-5 targets for 38 yards. Maybe he’s too risky for cash (for now) but I’d be fine rolling him out in GPPs, as he faces a Dallas defense who is down two of their starting LBs. Matt Ryan targeted WRs Julio Jones, Calvin Ridley, and Russell Gage 12 times apiece last Sunday. While Julio and Ridley could see that sort of volume many games, I’d be shocked if Gage sees double digit targets on the regular. We know Matt Ryan historically loves to pass to his tight ends and Hurst was on the field for 78.5% of offensive snaps in week one.

Logan Thomas | DK: $3.6k, FD: $4.7k | @ ARI | Cash & GPP

Maybe the chalk value TE this week? There are only a handful of tight ends who could be perceived as a top two receiving option within their offense, but Thomas may be the No. 2 guy in the passing game just behind WR Terry McLaurin. Arizona gave up the most FPPG to TEs, by a wide margin, in 2019 and after seeing eight targets in week one, Thomas should have a solid floor in this sneaky good fantasy-friendly game atmosphere.

Defenses to Consider

D/ST is a very volatile “position” and shouldn’t take up too much time in your DFS research. However, here are two D/STs I’m on board with this week.

Pittsburgh Steelers | DK: $3.8k, FD: $4.6k | vs. DEN

Safer DST option, but pricier. Denver has a slate-low 16.5 implied point total. The Steelers D looked about as stingy in week one against the Giants as they did in 2019. They held Saquon Barkley to a measly six yards on 15 carries (0.4 ypc!) and they forced Daniel Jones into two INTs. If they’re able to stuff the Broncos run game and turn them into a one dimensional offense, well… Drew Lock didn’t really look to be a QB to be scared of when he took on the Titans on MNF.

Los Angeles Chargers | DK: $2k, FD: $3.2k | vs. KC

Cheaper DST option, but riskier. The Washington DST punt worked out last week and goes to show that sometimes it’s not a bad idea at all to just spend way down on DST and hope for the best. Clearly this is a more difficult scenario, with the Chargers having to deal with the deadly Chiefs offense. But LAC has arguably a top 10 defensive unit and is strong at all three levels. Even if they give up some points, they’re fully capable of sacking Mahomes 3-5 times and force a turnover or two. For the sort of salary that opens up when you play a bottom-of-the-barrel DST, I’d be happy with a 5-8 fantasy point result out of this defense.

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