By: @Ryan_Humphries

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Time to kick it into gear for week two, ladies and gents! I’ll pretty much just reiterate the exact same thing I led with in the Primetime Preview: It’s important to keep what we saw from week one in perspective and not overreact heading into this week’s games. While it is a major help to have a one-game sample size for every team, there will still be quite a bit of guesswork to be done as depth charts, snap rates, on-field usage, and game plans continue to fluctuate and settle in. Many teams are still figuring out what their identity will be in this 2021 season and we’re at least a few weeks away from truly seeing what each team is going to be all about.

With week two upon us, the margin for error narrows and we have to be a bit sharper with our approach. This is primarily due to DFS prices being adjusted more closely to where players should be valued. We won’t be finding nearly as much value around the minimum price territory as last week so, if you want to be able to comfortably roster studs like Kyler Murray, Christian McCaffrey, DeAndre Hopkins, and Darren Waller, we’ll need to really try to hit the nail on the head with those low/mid-range guys.

We'll have 13 games landing on the main slate docket this Sunday. Let’s dive in and crush it!

Week two main slate match-ups with implied point totals and spreads:

Games to Target 🎯

Obvious Game Stack

Dallas Cowboys @ Los Angeles Chargers (-3.5) | 55.5 O/U

Implied Team Totals | DAL: 26.0 points, LAC: 29.5 points

There is an endless amount of potential DFS goodness to be found here. In week one, both teams ranked inside the top 10 in situation neutral pace while also running the 4th (LAC, 78) and 5th (DAL, 77) most offensive plays. Both head coaches and offensive coordinators are also going to be very willing to let their QBs sling it upwards of 50+ times per game, particularly when the game stays close (as this one should) and there is a constant need for an aggressive “score now” mindset. Additionally, this match-up gets an offensive boost from being played inside a dome at SoFi Stadium. The O/U opened at 52 points and that has rapidly been bet up all the way to 55.5 points. That is the sort of total you may only see a handful of times each NFL season... though, I have a feeling any game the Cowboys are involved in, the total is going to come close to this one many weeks. So, there is a lot to like here, especially given that close 3.5 point spread.

Score Prediction: DAL - 30, LAC - 35

Contrarian Game Stack

Buffalo Bills (-3.5) @ Miami Dolphins | 47.5 O/U

Implied Team Totals| BUF: 25.5 points, MIA: 22.0 points

This one doesn’t necessarily come out of nowhere as a ‘contrarian’ game stack candidate, but the 47.5 point total is still not likely to help draw an incredible amount of attention here. Neither Buffalo nor Miami cracked 20 points on offense in their opener, so some recency bias could scare some folks off as well. This game carries a close 3.5 point spread so we should expect a fairly tight back-and-forth contest. And the good news here is that both offenses ranked in the top five in situation neutral pace in week one (BUF: 3rd, MIA: 5th). The Bills faced a stiff Steelers defense that was able to hassle Josh Allen all day. Meanwhile, Miami traveled to Foxborough to play the Patriots, who are always going to be a well-prepared, stingy defense at home under Bill Belichick, even when they aren’t loaded up with talent on that side of the ball. The sledding could be a bit easier overall for both teams in this game.

Score Prediction: BUF: 30, MIA: 24

Quarterbacks to Consider

Potential quarterback targets at high/mid/low price points.

Justin Herbert, LAC | DK: $6.7k, FD: $7.6k | vs. DAL

If you read the “Games to Target” just above, you already know how much shootout potential could develop in the fast-paced game which features the highest total of any NFL game this week. Herbert was already going to be in a juicy spot here against a Dallas defense that was just toasted by Tom Brady for 379 yards and four TDs. But then, Cowboys top pass-rusher DeMarcus Lawrence broke his foot in Wednesday’s practice and will now be sidelined for around two months. On top of that, DE Randy Gregory had a positive COVID-19 test earlier this week and may not be available on Sunday either. So, Dallas could potentially be without their top two pass-rushers against a Chargers O-Line that was bolstered in the offseason and held up extremely well last week against an aggressive and talented Washington pass rush. Herbert should have all the time he needs to connect with passers on his (potentially 50+) dropbacks and could have a nice, clean jersey to either take home or give to a fan at the end of this game. Don’t forget that he is mobile enough to add some value with his legs and score the occasional rushing TD as well.

Jalen Hurts, PHI | DK: $6.5k, FD: $7.8k | vs. SF

We might as well continue to grab some Hurts exposure before he is priced up in the Kyler Murray territory. Hurts’ 264 yards passing, 3 TDs, and 67 yards rushing in week one was enough to earn him QB5 honors. He’ll now draw a 49ers defense that gave up 33 points to the Lions, of all teams, and was already a bit depleted in the secondary prior to losing top CB Jason Verrett to a torn ACL. Hurts has a strong complement of speedy pass-catching weapons at his disposal and plays behind a talented O-Line. The Eagles will be three-point home underdogs this week so we could see an aggressive Hurts-led attack as Philly looks to pull off the slight upset. Hurts' mobility is clearly a major bonus as well.

Teddy Bridgewater, DEN | DK: $5.4k, FD: $7k | @ JAX

I don’t love the prospect of going too cheap at QB this week, but Bridgewater looks like a worthy value to take a shot on if that’s the route you’re interested in. He led all QBs in week one with a 95.7 QBR and will see a Jags defense that gave up 37 total points to the TEXANS, including 291 yards passing and two TDs to Tyrod Taylor. Jacksonville’s 8.8 YPA was also the 6th highest of the week. The Broncos will be six point road favorites here and it’s likely they could lean on their 1-2 punch out of the backfield with Melvin Gordon and rookie Javonte Williams. Denver will also be without talented second year WR Jerry Jeudy (ankle) for a few weeks. But clearly, a team doesn’t need to have a Mahomes-like passing attack to carve up the Jags secondary. Bridgewater could have a very similar performance as he did in week one -- around 260 yards and a couple of TDs. He can often add around 20-30 yards on the ground as well. The upside isn't as wild as other QBs, but if you do need to save a bit of salary and need a quality floor, Bridgewater is a candidate to be that guy.

Running Backs to Consider

Potential running back targets at high/mid/low price points.

Nick Chubb, CLE | DK: $7.8k, FD: $8.4k | vs. HOU

It actually feels like a week where paying up for guys like CMC, Dalvin, and Kamara will be a contrarian approach, so keep this in mind if you’re an MME player who rolls out 20+ lineups.

Chubb will come at a nice discount from those guys while still having a similar floor/ceiling combo. He is setting up as a terrific cash play in the Browns week two match-up at home as 13 point favorites against the Texans. Historically, there is plenty of positive correlation between high-volume running backs playing at home as 7+ point favorites and the success they have in fantasy scoring. Chubb is one of the best pure runners in the league and gets to operate behind arguably the best O-Line in the league within a run-first offense. Now, if he could just get 3-5 targets on a routine basis (which he was trending towards last season), he’ll really start to post some monster fantasy scores.

Austin Ekeler, LAC | DK: $7.3k, FD: $7k | vs. DAL

Ekeler had an unusual week one. In previous seasons, he was a well-established PPR stud, but he wasn’t really utilized as a goal line back. Last week, Ekeler saw exactly zero targets but handled two carries inside the five, converting one for a touchdown. I expect many will be scared off by his lack of involvement in the passing game against Washington, but that won't be the norm whatsoever. Chalk it up to fluky happenstance. Ekeler will be playing in an excellent up-tempo high-scoring game and should be a nice leverage play out of this tier of running backs.

Najee Harris, PIT | DK: $6.3k, FD: $6.1k | vs. LV

It’s been spammed everywhere but, just in case you missed it, Najee Harris was the only running back who played on 100% of his team’s offensive snaps in week one. His rookie debut was a forgettable one but the gameflow should pan out much better in this game against a vulnerable Raiders defensive front. The Raiders are traveling east for an early game on short rest following a game that went into overtime. They allowed 98 yards and two TDs on 21 carries along with five receptions for 44 yards to the ragtag group of Ravens RBs on Monday night. Harris’ three-down workload will give him a strong floor and excellent RB1 upside in a game where the Steelers are favored by a touchdown at home.

Chris Carson, SEA | DK: $6.1k, FD: $6.7k | vs. TEN

Carson is another mid-range RB who is poised for success in week two. Seattle’s new look offense was highly efficient against a solid enough Colts defense in week one. Chris Carson looked sharp while averaging 5.7 YPC and he caught all three of his targets for an additional 26 yards. Once backup RB Rashaad Penny exited game one with a calf injury (likely out multiple weeks), Carson handled nearly all RB touches and played on just about 80% of snaps. The Seahawks check in with the third-highest implied total on the slate (30 points) and are 6 point home favorites. Look for plenty of volume for Carson with a chance at one or two touchdowns, especially if the current forecast holds -- there could be some soggy conditions in Seattle on gameday which may ultimately turn a bit more focus towards the ground game. To be determined.

David Montgomery, CHI | DK: $6.1k, FD: $6.7k | vs. CIN

Yeah, so this price range is just riddled with great options. Montgomery was the highlight of an otherwise bland Andy Dalton-led Bears offense on Sunday night. Monty ran efficiently (16 car, 108 yards, 6.8 YPC, 1 TD) and showed some great burst (long of 41 yards) while also breaking multiple tackles against a talented Rams defense. He should typically garner more than the one target he saw in that game as well, and we’re almost certainly getting Montgomery at a discount since salaries for this slate were released before the Sunday Night Football game even began. The Bears will be favored at home and Monty should continue to put up strong numbers against Cincinnati.

Kenneth Gainwell, PHI | DK: $4k, FD: $5k | vs. SF

This is purely a GPP flier but, for the stone minimum on both sites, Gainwell has some appeal after playing on just over 35% of snaps for Philly in week one. He has some decent pass catching potential and will go up against a 49ers defense that got nickel and dimed by the Lions pass catching backs for 16 receptions and 121 yards last week. That was mostly a result of Detroit simply not having any true prototypical receiving threats outside of TJ Hockenson. Regardless, Gainwell has sneaky 12-15 touch potential and the Eagles weren’t afraid to use the rookie in the redzone last week either where he scored from eight yards out and had a second TD called back due to a penalty.

Wide Receivers to Consider

Potential wide receiver targets at high/mid/low price points.

Stefon Diggs, BUF | DK: $7.7k, FD: $7.5k | @ MIA

Diggs went for 15/229/1 in two games against the division-rival Dolphins in 2020 and even during a week where the Bills passing offense struggled overall, Diggs still managed to post a respectable PPR performance, catching nine of his 14 (!) targets for 69 yards. In this high-volume passing offense, Diggs should be an excellent bet to see 10+ targets once again. We should look for Josh Allen to have a much more efficient day as well.

Amari Cooper, DAL | DK: $6.8k, FD: $7.8k | @ LAC

FanDuel didn’t hesitate to price Cooper among the very top receivers, which is where he belongs, but he’ll check in as the 10th most expensive WR option on DraftKings. It’s not a stretch to think the Cowboys will once again find themselves in a similar sort of shootout as they had against the Bucs. As already mentioned, this is easily one of the best-looking game environments of the week and Cooper is coming off of that monster 16 targets, 13 catch, 139 yards, 2 TD day against the Bucs. With Michael Gallup sustaining a multi-week injury, passes are going to simply be funneled to both Cooper and CeeDee Lamb ($6.4k/$6.8k) for the entire game, barring an unforeseen early blowout.

Cooper Kupp, LAR | DK: $6k, FD: $6.2k | @ IND

There seems to be some immediate chemistry brewing between new Rams QB Matthew Stafford and the established slot man Cooper Kupp. Kupp led the way for Rams receivers with a 98% snap%, 10 targets, and a 7/108/1 receiving line. The Colts just got burned by Tyler Lockett for 4/100/2 out of the slot last week and Kupp should continue to dominate usage over the middle of the field once again.

Ja’Marr Chase, CIN | DK: $5k, FD: $5.5k | @ CHI

In his NFL debut, Chase led all Bengals receivers in targets, catches, receiving yards, and snap rate (90%). He quickly silenced the offseason questions about his drop issues and whether or not a year away from football was going to hold him back going into his rookie season. The LSU connection between Joe Burrow and Chase picked up right where it left off in 2019 and it's a connection that probably won't be going away moving forward. The Bears surrendered 236 yards and three TDs to Rams wide receivers a week ago. While we can only gather so much from one game, Chase checks in as a high ceiling option out of this range.

Rondale Moore, ARI | DK: $4k, FD: $4.9k | vs. MIN

In his first NFL game, Moore (29% snap%) was understandably fourth in the WR pecking order for snaps behind Hopkins (88.4%), AJ Green (79.7%), and Christian Kirk (56.5%). The limited snaps resulted in Moore running only 14 routes but he still finished with five targets for four catches and 68 yards... not bad, given the lack of time on the field. As long as the sun wasn’t in their eyes during the game or nothing happened to the game film, the Arizona coaching staff should immediately be able to see that Moore has to start eating into the snaps of an over the hill AJ Green and a seemingly one-trick pony in go route runner Christian Kirk. Moore is just the type of athlete who can take a simple bubble screen or quick slant to the house at any point. He is still cheap and will be worth a dart throw in GPPs.

Cedrick Wilson, DAL | DK: $3.1k, FD: $4.9k | @ LAC

Given how often Dallas runs three WR personnel groups, Wilson will be on the field quite a bit for the next month or so while Michael Gallup recovers from his injury. Even though Wilson would check-in as the third or fourth receiving option, that is likely to still be a valuable role given how often the Cowboys sling it. Let's say Wilson is going to see a 12-15% target share in his current role. For most receivers, that would make them fairly irrelevant for DFS purposes. However, projecting Dak to throw 55 times this week isn't all that audacious -- that is his average number of attempts per game in his last four complete starts (not counting the game he got injured in last year). A 12-15% target share of 55 pass attempts would translate into 6.6 to 8.25 targets. You would take that volume all day from a receiver in this salary range. Wilson has a full year’s worth of knowledge of this Cowboys air-it-out offense and Dak hooked him up with seven targets and a 5/107/2 stat line in week three last season. That's obviously not a stat line we're expecting this week, but at least we know there is some level of chemistry and rapport between Dak and Wilson here.

Tight Ends to Consider

Tight end targets at high/mid/low price points.

Kyle Pitts, ATL | DK: $5.2k, FD: $5.5k | @ TB

Some will be pretty disgusted by this pick after he burned a large percentage of the field last week. While Atlanta looked abysmal in week one, Pitts was still targeted eight times and was lined up all over the field. The Falcons are going to have a terrible time running the ball against a stout Bucs defensive front. As the Cowboys showed everyone in the NFL Kickoff Game, Tampa Bay’s secondary is where you can attack them. The Falcons are likely going to be trailing pretty much all game here, so plenty of passing should be in the cards regardless. I feel like Matt Ryan can’t possibly be as washed up as he looked against the Eagles so, while there are safer options, Pitts deserves some GPP consideration as a leverage play.

Rob Gronkowski, TB | DK: $4.7k, FD: $5.8k | vs. ATL

Gronk makes for the safer play at tight end in this game as he and his old buddy Brady looked like their vintage selves in the season opener. Atlanta gave up 6/76/1 to Eagles TEs last week and Tampa Bay brings a slate high 32.3 implied point total to the table. Gronk is going to usually be good for a handful of catches and is probably an even money bet to score another touchdown in week two.

Noah Fant, DEN | DK: $4.2k, FD: $5.7k | @ JAX

Fant’s target share should benefit from the absence of Jerry Jeudy and this is a promising match-up against a leaky Jags defense. I’m thinking Fant sees another 8-10 targets in week two and he should operate as a safety valve for Bridgewater over the middle of the field. I like Fant's chances of getting a few looks inside the redzone as well.

Defenses to Consider

D/ST is a very volatile “position” and shouldn’t take up too much time in your DFS research. However, here are two D/STs I’m on board with this week.

Safer but more expensive option:

Cleveland Browns | DK: $3.5k, FD: $4.2k | vs. HOU

Honestly, the Cleveland D/ST feels a little too cheap on both sites. They’re double-digit home favorites against Houston who will not have near the success they were able to stumble upon against Jacksonville. I feel fairly confident about a 10+ FP game from the Browns D/ST this week.

Riskier but more affordable option:

New York Jets | DK: $2.2k, FD: $3.4k | vs. NE

It may not be much of an advantage but at least the Jets are at home and will be taking on a rookie QB in Mac Jones who will be making his first NFL road start. For these barely above minimum salaries, eight or nine fantasy points is doable for the Jets D/ST, which would be perfectly fine value in my book.

Touchdown Call 🏈

David Montgomery, CHI | DK: $6.1k, FD: $6.7k | vs. CIN

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