By: @Ryan_Humphries

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Welcome back for another look ahead at this week’s NFL main slate! Once again, 13 games will land on the Sunday docket. Given the pass-heavy approach that reigns supreme in the NFL these days, it’s not uncommon to see *a* game with an implied point total in the mid-50s most weeks. This week… we have THREE games with a 54.5+ O/U! Perhaps my memory is failing me, but I’m not sure if I’ve ever seen three games with a 54+ O/U on a single slate in 10+ years of playing NFL DFS -- and a couple of other match-ups also have at least a 50 O/U. Now, of course a lofty total doesn’t guarantee that a shootout will develop in all of those games; plenty of us got burned by the DAL/LAC game last week which seemed to promise such a fast-paced, high-scoring environment. That game ultimately saw a total of 37 points scored with the Cowboys winning 20-17. There was still a decent volume of offensive plays (122 total) and yardage (827 total yards), but the touchdowns and big plays weren’t exactly there. But the past is in the past! We shall take the knowledge, data, and information we do have through two weeks and see how we can apply that towards this Sunday’s loaded set of games!

Week two main slate match-ups with implied point totals and spreads:

Games to Target 🎯

Obvious Game Stack

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-1.5) @ Los Angeles Rams | 55.5 O/U

TB: 28.5 implied points | LAR: 27.0 implied points

Notable Offensive Skill Position Injuries: RB Darrell Henderson Jr. (ribs) - Questionable, WR Antonio Brown (C19) - Questionable

Score Prediction: TB - 34, LAR - 31

Game Notes: Through two weeks, the Bucs and Rams both rank inside the top three in situation neutral pace. This match-up features the largest total on the slate. Bucs have scored 30+ points in nine straight games dating back to week 15 of last season (all wins, for what it’s worth). Both offenses rank inside the top five in total points scored through two weeks -- TB 39.5 PPG, LAR 30.5 PPG. The 1.5 point spread in this game is the slimmest margin of any week three NFL game.

Contrarian Game Stack

Atlanta Falcons @ New York Giants (-3) | 47.5 O/U

ATL: 22.5 implied points | NYG: 25.5 implied points

Notable Offensive Skill Position Injuries: RB Saquon Barkley (knee) - Questionable, WR Kenny Golladay (hip) - Questionable, WR Russell Gage (ankle) - Questionable, TE Evan Engram (calf) - Questionable

Score Prediction: ATL - 23, NYG - 30

Game Notes: This is a sneakier game stack to target with more attention going towards teams in those match-ups with 50+ point totals. Both defenses have allowed 6.1 yards per play, ranking them inside the bottom 10 in the NFL. Close three-point spread. Quite a few fantasy-relevant options to choose from on both sides here.

Quarterbacks to Consider

Potential quarterback targets at high/mid/low price points.

Kyler Murray, ARI | DK: $8.3k, FD: $9k | @ JAX

The time has come. Patrick Mahomes has officially been usurped from his spot as the most expensive DFS quarterback. Kyler Murray became the first QB in NFL history to open the season with 3+ passing TDs and 1+ rushing TDs in each of the first two games. That trend will come to an end at some point but he’s going to provide a helluva floor/ceiling combination nearly every week due to his immense rushing upside, elusiveness, and overall improvement as a passer over the last year-plus. Additionally, there are legitimately four or five viable Cardinals receiving threats to stack with Murray in any given week. Jacksonville ranks 31st in the NFL in pass DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average) and has surrendered 8.8 YPA through the air. With no real bellcow talent at the RB position, this progressive Kliff Kingsbury offense should continue to run directly through Murray’s arm and legs every week.

Justin Herbert, LAC | DK: $6.5k, FD: $7.5k | @ KC

We’re looking at around 5-7% ownership for Herbert on this slate in a game that should check in with very favorable shootout potential. In two games versus the Chiefs last season, Herbert completed 44-of-64 passes (68.8%) for 613 yards, 4 TDs, 1 INT while adding 27 yards rushing and two additional TDs on the ground. The Chiefs defense is currently dead last in the NFL allowing 7.6 yards per play and the Chargers will check-in as 6.5 point road underdogs. The Chargers have passed on 65.7% of offensive plays (6th most) thus far in 2021 and they’re likely to be playing either “catch up” or “keep up” with the electric Chiefs offense.

Daniel Jones, NYG | DK: $5.8k, FD: $7.4k | vs. ATL

Danny Dimes has been very fantasy-relevant in each of his first two games of 2021. His 122 yards rushing trails only Kyler Murray and Jalen Hurts among NFL QBs and he’s passing with solid efficiency while taking pretty good care of the ball (zero INTs, one fumble lost). After facing a pair of talented defenses to begin the season (vs. DEN, @ WAS), the match-up with the Falcons defense should be a welcomed proposition for Jones and the Giants. The Falcons allowed an average of 29.6 FP to the two QBs they’ve faced this season, Jalen Hurts and Tom Brady. Daniel Jones won’t exactly need a Brady-esque performance to pay off his week three salaries.

Justin Fields, CHI | DK: $5.2k, FD: $6.5k | @ CLE

Andy Dalton has already been ruled out this week so it’s time for the Justin Fields show to take over in Chicago. Given his dual-threat ability and big arm, Fields is 100% worth a shot in some GPPs this week. If you’re only looking at the numbers from his time on the field in week two (6/13 passing, 60 yards, 1 INT, 10 rushes, 31 yards, 0 TDs), you may not come away all too impressed. But, it's important to note, Allen Robinson did drop what would have been Fields’ first career NFL touchdown from 35 yards out… and it was right in the bread basket! Sure, Fields didn't look great, per se, but a full week of practice with the ones and a game plan designed specifically around Fields' skillset should go a long way. The Browns defense ranks 25th in pass DVOA through two weeks and has allowed 29.9 FPPG to QBs (Mahomes & the combination of Tyrod Taylor/Davis Mills).

Running Backs to Consider

Potential running back targets at high/mid/low price points.

Dalvin Cook, MIN | DK: $8.4k, FD: $9.5k | vs. SEA

We’ll have to monitor Cook’s status on Friday and into the weekend. He is currently questionable with an ankle injury and hasn’t practiced as of Thursday. Assuming he is suiting up, he should see his typical RB1 level workload against a Seahawks defense that just got demolished by Derrick Henry in week two. Around 15-20 carries and a handful of targets/receptions is normally going to do the trick for Cook in terms of returning value, even at his lofty salaries.

Austin Ekeler, LAC | DK: $7.2k, FD: $7k | @ KC

After a target-less week one, Ekeler commanded 10 targets against the Cowboys, catching nine for 61 yards while adding 54 yards on nine carries. Kansas City is currently allowing 6.0 YPC and Ekeler will continue to play a prominent role both on the ground and through the air. This is setting up to be a great game flow environment for a player of Ekeler’s skillset. He's the rare kind of running back who could actually be considered as a stack candidate with his quarterback, Justin Herbert.

Saquon Barkley, NYG | DK: $6.5k, FD: $6k | vs. ATL

Barkley’s 84% snap rate ranked second among all NFL RBs in week two. The high snap rate only amounted to 15 total touches for 69 yards (no TDs) versus Washington, but he’s clearly working his way back towards his familiar featured three-down role. The Falcons will represent the softest defensive front that the Giants have faced up to this point so Barkley could find a bit more breathing room this Sunday.

Ty’Son Williams, BAL | DK: $5.8k, FD: $6.4k | @ DET

Williams passes the eye test. He is clearly the most explosive back on this Ravens roster and should continue to get the first crack at lead RB duties. His 6.5 YPC currently ranks 3rd among NFL RBs and there should be plenty of room to operate against a Lions defense that was picked apart by Aaron Jones and Eli Mitchell in weeks one and two. If the Ravens are wise, they’ll begin to provide Williams with some additional work in the passing game as well and try to get him some targets in space. The veteran retreads behind him are still going to vulture touches, but if Williams gets 15 touches or so, I love his potential in this match-up (and most match-ups moving forward).

Mike Davis, ATL | DK: $5.1k, FD: $5.7k | @ NYG

Cordarrelle Patterson was the Falcons ‘RB’ who was blessed by touchdown variance in week two (one rushing, one receiving). However, Davis is still far and away the leader in terms of time on the field and offensive snaps. He has 100 snaps (69.4% snap%) to Patterson’s 48 snaps (33.3% snap%). Davis has seen 13 targets and 24 carries in two games, so it isn’t as if the opportunity isn’t there. After a dismal week one performance against the Eagles, the Falcons actually showed some life against Tampa Bay last week before Matt Ryan threw two late pick-sixes. Against a more evenly matched foe in the Giants, Davis could actually see a decent game script work out in his favor. Patterson will still have a role, but Davis still has 20+ touch potential and comes in with affordable price points.

Clyde Edwards-Helaire, KC | DK: $4.8k, FD: $6.5k | vs. LAC

CEH has been a massive disappointment thus far in his NFL career but one day… maybe… he’s could begin to fit that "Andy Reid-coached stud fantasy RB" role that we've seen throughout the years -- unless it just turns out that he is simply #NotGood. For now, OC Eric Bieniemy seems content with keeping the ball in Patrick Mahomes’ hands and is limiting designed runs. Only 31 total designed run plays have been called through two games in this Chiefs offense. Touchdowns are in no shortage in Kansas City, but unfortunately, it seems as if everyone else BUT Edwards-Helaire has been invited to the endzone party. CEH's late-game fumble against the Ravens this past Sunday night likely didn't do him any favors with the coaching staff either. I wouldn’t be too interested in him this week on FanDuel, but DraftKings is just inviting us to get hurt once more with that $4,800 salary. If CEH is going to be <10% owned at that price point, he’s worth some GPP risk.

Wide Receivers to Consider

Potential wide receiver targets at high/mid/low price points.

Tyreek Hill, KC | DK: $8.4k, FD: $8.7k | vs. LAC

We saw the rare Tyreek dud against a Ravens team that deliberately made it their mission to keep him in check. So, will that mean we get a <10% owned Hill in week three? If so, I’m in. The Chiefs are back at home where Hill went for 11/197/1 on 15 targets in week one. They’re playing a Chargers opponent who is capable of hanging with them on the scoreboard, as the Browns also did in week one. And Hill’s ceiling is virtually unmatched by any other NFL wide receiver. Is his floor the best? Obviously not, after last week. But he’s a prime tournament target every single week, even when he is the highest-priced WR on the board.

Cooper Kupp, LAR | DK: $6.8k, FD: $7.9k | vs. TB

Say goodbye to an affordable Kupp for the remainder of the season, boys! Through two weeks, he’s fantasy football’s overall WR1 and he has commanded a league-high 38.2% TGT% while catching 76.2% of his 21 targets. It’s notoriously difficult to run on this Tampa Bay defensive front but passing on them has not been challenging whatsoever. Up to this point, the Rams have run the ball on 47.3% of plays, the 7th highest rate in the NFL. Stafford has only had to attempt 26 and 30 passes in weeks one and two. He may be pushed for 40+ attempts this Sunday in this [presumably] high-scoring, fast-paced match-up, which only bodes well for Kupp and the other Rams pass catchers. Robert Woods ($5.7k/$6.1k) is likely going to be overlooked with most people flocking to Kupp and would make for a nice lower-owned leverage play. (By the way, if you can make a sensible trade for Robert Woods in your season long leagues, I'd try to do it. Kupp isn't going to keep this pace up for 15 more games, Woods will have similar games that Kupp has had in weeks one and two, and the Rams are poised to be a top five overall offense.)

Keenan Allen, LAC | DK: $6.6k, FD: $6.9k | @ KC

I love going after high-volume WRs early in the season when the only thing missing from their game logs are touchdowns. Keenan Allen has surpassed the 100 yard mark in each of the first two weeks and has seen 21 total targets already, including five red zone targets. The RZ targets simply have not translated into touchdowns… yet. In due time... in due time. It’s a good week to get back on board with him in a promising scoring environment.

Marquise Brown, BAL | DK: $5.6k, FD: $6.6k | @ DET

When you’re a receiver for a team like Baltimore (55.6% rush play%) that runs the ball more than anyone else in the league, you need to either score touchdowns or demand around a 30% target share in order to truly be a fantasy-relevant asset. Thus far, ‘Hollywood’ Brown has met both criteria. He’s been on the receiving end of a Lamar Jackson touchdown in each of the first two weeks and his 16 targets represent a 29.6% TGT%. And let's not forget, Brown ended the 2020 season with six TDs in his final eight games (as well as 7+ targets in six of those final eight games). Assuming there are no major issues with the ankle injury he is nursing, Brown should have some more excellent opportunities against this soft Lions secondary.

Ja’Marr Chase, CIN | DK: $5.4k, FD: $5.9k | @ PIT

It may seem unwise to attack the Steelers defense, but their secondary has not been all that stout. Currently, they’re allowing the second-most fantasy points to perimeter wide receivers, which is where Chase has ran 77% of his routes. While Chase only has 11 targets, which represents a 20% TGT%, his 17.82 aDOT ranks 5th among all NFL WRs (min. 10 targets) and he has accounted for 44.5% of Cincy's total air yards. He’s a solid GPP option this week who may only be around 3-5% owned.

Odell Beckham Jr., CLE | DK: $5.3k, FD: $6.5k | vs. CHI

Unless a "pitch count" is announced, OBJ should be a full go this week. With no Jarvis Landry, he’s likely going to be the focal point of the passing game. Unfortunately, the Browns are an extremely run-first offense and Baker Mayfield might only need to attempt 20-25 passes in a game where they're a touchdown home favorite over the Bears. But perhaps 8-10 of those throws would go in the direction of OBJ against a Bears secondary that has allowed the 8th most FPPG to perimeter WRs.

Marvin Jones Jr., JAX | DK: $4.9k, FD: $6.3k | vs. ARI

MJJ has 20 targets (24.1% TGT%) and two TDs through two weeks. His already apparent redzone role should be even more secured with TE James O’Shaughnessy hitting the IR. The Jags are set to play catch-up all game here against the Cardinals, and Arizona’s secondary is not looking like their defensive strength up to this point.

KJ Osborn, MIN | DK: $3.5k, FD: $5.1k | vs. SEA

Ya have to love the potential value here as Osborn has clearly solidified himself as the WR3 in Minnesota. With Irv Smith Jr. done for the year, the Vikings are running more 3WR sets and Osborn has turned 15 targets (19% TGT%) into 12 receptions, 167 yards, and a TD. With Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen commanding so much attention from opposing defenses, Osborn has carved out a nice, serviceable role for himself while running a ton of routes against softer coverage.

Tight Ends to Consider

Tight end targets at high/mid/low price points.

TJ Hockenson, DET | DK: $5.2k, FD: $6.3k | vs. BAL

If you end up having the salary to afford Travis Kelce ($8.2k/$8.5k) or Darren Waller ($7.4k/$7.4k), all the power to ya. I love going after both of those guys this week. But if you have to drop down a bit and save a grand or two in salary, then Hockenson is certainly starting to look like a guy who is not incredibly far off from that elite Kelce/Waller echelon of tight ends. Hock's 16 receptions lead the position while his 163 yards are only seven fewer than Waller and 22 fewer than Kelce. Opposing TEs are averaging 9.5/122.5/1 against Baltimore this season and Hockenson is playing right around 90% of snaps.

Kyle Pitts, ATL | DK: $4.9k, FD: $6.2k | @ NYG

Someone please tell Falcons HC Arthur Smith, OC Dave Ragone, and QB Matt Ryan that they don’t have to throw the ball 20+ times to running backs and guys not named Calvin Ridley and Kyle Pitts. Maybe Pitts will see the 10+ targets he deserves this week against a Giants defense that has been torched by opposing TEs to the tune of 16/149/2 on 21 targets (4th most FP allowed). Surely there is no clear-cut #1 overall pick in the 2022 NFL draft worth tanking for just yet, right? If Atlanta wants to win games, Pitts should begin to be force-fed the ball.

Maxx Williams, ARI | DK: $3.2k, FD: $4.7k | @ JAX

This certainly feels a little ‘point chase-y’ but when you catch 7-of-7 targets (for 94 yards), as Williams did in a break out week two performance, most QBs are not quick to forget that. Williams has played just under 80% of snaps through two weeks. When a receiver is on the field for nearly every play in one of the more lethal offenses in the league, they’re usually going to have some fantasy relevancy. Maxx Williams will check in as a contrarian GPP tight end play and/or a cheap piece to a Kyler Murray double stack (e.g. Murray + DHop/Williams).

Defenses to Consider

D/ST is a very volatile “position” and shouldn’t take up too much time in your DFS research. However, here are two D/STs I’m on board with this week.

Safer but more expensive option:

Denver Broncos | DK: $4.3k, FD: $5k | vs. NYJ

Broncos are looking like the clear-cut top D/ST play, even without Bradley Chubb. They get to play at home against Zach Wilson who looked completely out of his element en route to a four INT day against the Patriots last Sunday. The Jets are being pinned with only 15.5 implied points, which is easily the lowest implied team total on the slate.

Riskier but more affordable option:

Cincinnati Bengals | DK: $2.1k, FD: $3.4k | @ PIT

The Steelers O-Line has looked awful, they’re likely to be without one of their top receiving weapons (D. Johnson), and, just from watching him, there are legitimate concerns about how much Big Ben truly has left in the tank at 39-years-old. For nearly minimum salary, you don’t need much from the Bengals D/ST to pay off here. If Cincy holds PIT to <28 points while acquiring 2-3 sacks and grabbing one or two turnovers, they'd return pretty solid value.

Touchdown Call 🏈

Keenan Allen, LAC | DK: $6.6k, FD: $6.9k | @ KC

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