Top NFL DFS Plays Week #3 | There’s No Traffic on the Extra Mile

September 24, 2020

By: @Ryan_Humphries | LineStar Chat: @N1TRO

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We roll full steam ahead into week three of the NFL season! After a particularly ruthless week of injuries sustained by several highly fantasy-relevant guys, we’ll see opportunities increase drastically for many other players. As a result, there are some guys who may be under-priced across the DFS industry this week. Be sure to catch the NFL Takeaways article that our boy Greg Landry puts out. Toward the end of that article, he goes over some key injuries from week two and the significance those injuries could have moving forward.

The main slate will carry 13 games and is loaded with some fascinating match-ups. Let’s get right down to brass tacks.

Main slate match-ups with implied point totals and moneylines:

Games to Target

Dallas Cowboys @ Seattle Seahawks (-5) | 55.5 O/U

DAL: 25.3 implied points | SEA: 30.3 implied points

DAL: 1st in offensive tempo | SEA: 32nd in offensive tempo

Listing this game as a match-up to target should come as no surprise. Both teams have combined for 120 points through the first two weeks and these defenses have given up a total of 114 points. The 55.5 point total checks in as the highest on the slate. The Cowboys (1st) and Seahawks (32nd) bookend the NFL in terms of offensive tempo, so we could consider giving a boost to Seattle players, while Dallas players may see reduced opportunities compared to the previous two weeks. There are close to a dozen guys in this game that should be on your DFS radar and there would be no way I’d fade this one.

Tennessee Titans (-2.5) @ Minnesota Vikings | 48.5 O/U

TEN: 25.5 implied points | MIN: 23.0 implied points

TEN: 6th in offensive tempo | MIN: 5th in offensive tempo

For my under the radar game to potentially stack up, I’ll be targeting this contest out in Minnesota. The total for this game opened at 45.5 points and has quickly risen to 48.5, and is even listed at 50 by some sportsbooks. Both offenses have operated in a tempo faster than almost any other team in the NFL and neither defense has been particularly impressive, overall. The Titans defense just gave up 30 points to the Jacksonville Jaguars and currently ranks 16th in DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average) while Minnesota checks in at 20th and has already surrendered 71 points. I always love the prospects of a shootout developing when there’s a slight home underdog in play, like we have here. This Titans -2.5 spread is one of the slimmest of the week and we could certainly see a back-and-forth battle on the scoreboard go down in Minny. Also remember that this game gets the not-often-talked-about “domed match-up” offensive boost.

Quarterbacks to Consider

Potential quarterback targets at high/mid/low price points.

Kyler Murray | DK: $6.8k, FD: $8.4k | vs. DET | Cash & GPP

Welp, it didn’t take long for Murray to get priced up but this top tier is really where he should be. Given his elite rushing ability and the incorporation of a top five NFL wide receiver into the offense, Murray’s ceiling is similar to the top two QBs on the slate (Dak and Russ), but you’ll obviously save a few bucks dropping down to Murray. The Cardinals are tied with the Seahawks with a slate-leading 30.3 implied point total. Arizona also picked up where they left off last year and continue to play at a high tempo. They rank 7th in overall pace and even when they’ve played with a significant lead (7+ points), they’ve played at the 5th fastest tempo. I usually prefer to pay down a bit for my cash game QB but with the value on the board this week, I may advise targeting one of these high-end QBs in great match-ups. Detroit ranks 31st in DVOA and has already allowed 69 points (nice) on 6.5 yards per play (5th highest).

Ryan Tannehill | DK: $5.9k, FD: $7.4k | @ MIN | Cash & GPP

I hit on this game above as a potential sneaky good fantasy environment. I believe we’ll get a good floor out of Tannehill this week, regardless of whether or not top WR AJ Brown (knee) is active. Without Brown in the mix last week, Tannehill needed just 24 passes to toss four TDs and 239 yards. He's also usually good to add 10-20 yards rushing as well which, going by fantasy scoring, is the equivalent of 25-50 additional yards passing. The Vikings defense allows 8.2 yards per pass attempt (6th highest) so Tannehill won’t necessarily need to throw it 40+ times to return value here.

Mitch Trubisky | DK: $5.7k, FD: $7.5k | @ ATL | GPP Preferred

Trubisky is the ultimate fantasy enigma but he’s a threat to run the ball and will also get a match-up with a Falcons team that has allowed the most FPPG to QBs thru two weeks, as well as 8.9 yards per pass attempt (2nd most). Even in positive match-ups, he can come away with 10 FP just as easily as he could 30 FP, so I’d be wary of him for cash but he’s a certified boom/bust GPP play. My chips would be more on the “boom” side of things, especially if the Falcons pull away early.

Running Backs to Consider

Potential running back targets at high/mid/low price points.

Derrick Henry | DK: $7.8k, FD: $8.2k | @ MIN | GPP Preferred

We’re two weeks in and Derrick Henry has an NFL-leading 56 rush attempts and no tuddies to show for it. How long do we really expect that to continue? The Vikings have been a bit more stout on the ground (4.3 ypc allowed) than they have been through the air but they’ve still surrendered 280 yards rushing and two TDs to RBs over the first two weeks (along with 50 yards receiving). Henry should dominate almost all of the Titans RB touches once again and may see some positive touchdown regression head his way in week three.

James Conner | DK: $6.7k, FD: $7.1k | vs. HOU | GPP Preferred

Conner has proven throughout his career that, when healthy, he can be a certified top 10 NFL RB. His health is always a main concern though and I’ve learned my lesson from rostering him in cash games. But the Steelers will enter the week as four point home favorites and Houston has given up 5.6 ypc, which is the second-highest average in the NFL. I imagine Conner could get about 20 total touches this week with one or two cracks at the endzone.

Kenyan Drake | DK: $6k, FD: $6.5k | vs. DET | Cash & GPP

Drake’s 36 rush attempts on the season check in as the sixth most in the league. He’s coming off of back-to-back weeks against arguably two top five defensive lines (well, 49ers were at the time anyway) which could be to blame for his relatively ho-hum fantasy performances. Now, he’ll face a Detroit D-line that ranks inside the *bottom* five in the NFL… and they could contend for the worst by the time this season is over. They have been gashed for 6.5 yards per carry and have already surrendered 353 yards rushing (2nd most) to the RB position, as well as 88 yards receiving (T-8th most) and three total TDs. Yeah, you can thank Aaron Jones’ insane week two performance for much of that, but the point still stands that this is a very bad defensive front. Now that the Cards enter as six point home favorites, we could see a heavy dosage of work from Drake. I don’t see anything wrong with pairing Drake with Kyler Murray and potentially gaining exposure to every touchdown Arizona will score.

Joshua Kelley | DK: $5k, FD: $5.9k | vs. CAR | Cash & GPP

The Chargers are second in the NFL in rush play percentage (55.3%) and I don’t see that changing with a rookie QB looking to take the helm. Kelley, also a rookie, has quickly been implemented into the “Melvin Gordon role” which the Chargers use to compliment the more shifty and versatile Austin Ekeler. Both Kelley and Ekeler have 35 carries (T-6th) through two weeks. However, Kelley has eight redzone rushes (three inside the five yard line) compared to Ekeler’s four (zero inside the five) so early indications would put Kelley as the primary goal line back. The Panthers have already given up six (yes, SIX) touchdowns to opposing RBs this season while allowing 4.8 ypc. Considering the Chargers are favored by nearly a touchdown at home, the game script should work out nicely for Kelley this week.

Jerick McKinnon | DK: $4.9k, FD: $5.7k | @ NYG | Cash & GPP

With Raheem Mostert and Tevin Coleman both on the shelf with injuries this week, McKinnon should be given the first crack at lead RB duties for the 49ers. McKinnon has already managed to be fantasy-relevant even when the San Fran backfield was healthier. Jeff Wilson Jr. (DK: $4k, FD: $5.2k) will have some involvement as well, but McKinnon’s skillset lends itself more to the passing game. The 49ers have passed to RBs more than any other team this season and that trend likely continues as backup QB Nick Mullens looks to step in for the injured Jimmy Garoppolo (ankle). The Giants D has allowed two productive games to Benny Snell and David Montgomery this season and they should have a hard time containing a freak athlete like McKinnon.

Wide Receivers to Consider

Potential wide receiver targets at high/mid/low price points.

DeAndre Hopkins | DK: $7.9k, FD: $8.5k | vs. DET | GPP Preferred

I mean, we’ve already got Cardinals highlighted in the QB and RB sections, so why stop now? Hopkins may very well come away as one of the steals in season long draft,s as he has his sights set on being the number one scoring wide receiver in 2020. Hopkins owns a massive 34.25% target share and will get to run against a Detroit secondary that allows the 11th most FPPG to perimeter receivers (where Hopkins aligns on 92% of routes). If you have the salary, I don’t mind him at all as a cash play, but he’s obviously going to be a GPP target nearly every week.

DK Metcalf | DK: $6.5k, FD: $6.5k | vs.DAL | Cash & GPP

Metcalf has seen 48.61% of his team’s targeted air yards, which ranks 3rd among NFL receivers. He even burned reigning NFL DPOY Stephon Gilmore on a deep route for a TD this past Sunday night. Metcalf stands at 6’4” and has burning 4.33 speed and freakish athleticism. When you pair that kind of receiver with one of the smartest and most accurate QBs in the game heading into a potential shootout, you should look out for good things to come this week from Metcalf.

CeeDee Lamb | DK: $5.4k, FD: $5.6k | @ SEA | Cash & GPP

I’m just going to copy and paste what I wrote in Lamb’s comments on LineStar: Lamb has been in the slot on 92% of his routes. SEA slot DB Ugo Amadi has covered 100% of routes in the slot & has been targeted on 33% of routes ran against him. Unsurprisingly, Seattle has given up most FPPG to slot WRs. Dallas enters as +5 underdogs and could be playing from behind yet again. Lamb chops it up this week.

Diontae Johnson | DK: $5.4k, FD: $6.3k | vs. HOU | Cash & GPP

Johnson (toe) is currently listed as questionable but after a full practice on Thursday, we should expect him to be a full go in week three. We still have plenty to learn about every team this season, but early on Johnson has drawn 23 targets (32.4% target share) compared to JuJu Smith-Schuster’s 13 (18.3% target share). It really isn’t much of a stretch to consider that Johnson may very well be the WR1 in this Steelers offense. The “new Antonio Brown,” if you will, except with less psychological issues. He’s going to post some monster games this season.

Darius Slayton | DK: $4.9k, FD: $5.5k | vs. SF | GPP Preferred

The Giants have passed on 69.8% of plays this season, which leads the NFL. Now, after losing all-world RB Saquon Barkley (ACL) for the season and with WR Sterling Shepard (toe) riding IR for a few weeks, the playmaking options are limited here. Slayton should likely have a floor of eight targets for the foreseeable future and he’s a highly capable receiver in the midst of his second NFL season. Slayton should also run plenty of routes against 49ers perimeter CB Emmanuel Moseley who has been targeted on a massive 36% of routes ran against him (thank DeAndre Hopkins in week one for skewing that percentage a bit, however).

KJ Hamler | DK: $3k, FD: $4.5k | vs. TB | GPP Preferred

We continue the trend of finding value from players who benefit from those brutal week two injuries. The Broncos spent their first two picks in the 2020 NFL draft on a pair of promising wide receivers in Jerry Jeudy and KJ Hamler. These guys may be tasked with more of a workload than they initially anticipated this early on in the season after Broncos WR1 Courtland Sutton sustained ACL and MCL tears in week two and will miss the remainder of the season. The Broncos are also without starting QB Drew Lock (shoulder) for a while but I’m not going to pretend that going from Lock down to backup QB Jeff Driskel is a huge downgrade for the passing game. Driskel looked Hamler’s way plenty last week and he came away with seven targets (caught three for 48 yards). Hamler is a speedster built in the mold of guy like Tyreek Hill and, even though he didn’t register a 40-yard dash at the combine, he ‘reportedly’ ran a 4.27 during his training leading up to the combine (take that as you will). The Broncos likely trail much, or all, of this game and Hamler isn’t the worst guy to punt -- especially on DraftKings at the stone cold minimum of $3,000.

Tight Ends to Consider

Tight end targets at high/mid/low price points.

Zach Ertz | DK: $5.1k, FD: $6.2k | vs. CIN | GPP Preferred

Ertz hasn’t exactly gotten off to a stellar start but he has at least seen seven targets each of the first two weeks and his best games in 2020 are 100% ahead of him. The Eagles will be without rookie WR Jalen Reagor for a number of weeks as he undergoes surgery on his injured thumb. The already thin receiving tree gets trimmed even more. The Bengals defense has covered tight ends well up to this point but if Ertz has potential for 10+ targets, I’ll have some shares at these decreased salaries.

Logan Thomas | DK: $3.7k, FD: $4.9k | @ CLE | Cash & GPP

All things are pointing towards Thomas being the “WR2” of this Football Team football team. Just behind Terry McLaurin (18 targets, 27.3% target share) sits Thomas with his 17 targets and 25.8% target share -- no other Washington receiver has more than 10 targets. The Browns may end up turning into a ‘flowchart’ defense that we’ll want to play tight ends against. They’ve allowed the second most FPPG to TEs through two weeks and practically didn’t have an answer for Bengals TEs CJ Uzomah and Drew Sample last week on Thursday Night Football -- not exactly elite talent there.

Drew Sample | DK: $3.5k, FD: $4.8k | @ PHI | GPP Preferred

Hey, speaking of Sample, I know I just kinda dissed him a second ago but with CJ Uzomah (Achilles) done for the year, Sample should get the first chance to soak up the majority of tight end targets in Cincy. After Uzomah played on 51% of snaps last week, prior to his injury, Sample ended the game with a 59% snap rate (led CIN TEs) and caught 7-of-9 targets for 45 yards. He was definitely a “check down Charlie” option for Joe Burrow but hey… targets are targets and he could make a quality punt play this week considering Philly has allowed the 6th most FPPG to TEs. More of an option on DK though at these salaries and full PPR scoring.

Defenses to Consider

D/ST is a very volatile “position” and shouldn’t take up too much time in your DFS research. However, here are two D/STs I’m on board with this week.

Indianapolis Colts | DK: $4.1k, FD: $4.8k | vs. NYJ

Expensive but less risky. I mean… I probably don’t need to explain much here right, guys? It’s the Jets, haha. The Jets… hahaha (in before a Jets offensive explosion).

New York Giants | DK: $2.7k, FD: $3.6k | vs. SF

Cheaper but more risky. The Giants are actually 7th in DVOA and will face a sorta rag-tag Nick Mullins-led 49ers offense that could be without George Kittle once again. A few sacks and maybe a pick (six?) would be nice value here and is very doable.

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Once again, if you have any questions DM me on Twitter @Ryan_Humphries or tag me in the LineStar NFL chat using @N1TRO. Good luck this week!

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