By: @Ryan_Humphries | LineStar Chat: @N1TRO

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As we propel into week four, we run into the first significant coronavirus-related impact on the NFL season. As many are likely already aware, multiple players and personnel within the Titans organization have tested positive for COVID-19, which will cause their game with the Steelers to be postponed to a later date. Originally, it appeared as if the NFL was going to attempt to get this game rescheduled to this upcoming Monday or Tuesday, but additional positive tests will now have the league eyeing a make-up date later in the season. To state the obvious, DON’T roster any Titans or Steelers players this week unless you’re just a fan of goose eggs.

Hopefully that will turn out to be a very isolated incident, but it’s a reality that we may run into at least a time or two more before this season comes to an end. This week’s main slate will still leave us with plenty of action, as a dozen other games will land within our crosshairs. Seven of these games carry a total of 51.5 or above so we may be looking at the highest scoring main slate to date this season. Plenty of great match-ups are on tap so let’s get busy, baby!

Main slate match-ups with implied team totals and moneylines:

Games to Target

Seattle Seahawks (-7) @ Miami Dolphins | 54 O/U

SEA: 30.5 implied points | MIA: 23.5 implied points

SEA: 30th in offensive tempo | MIA: 26th in offensive tempo

With all of these high totals this week, you can make a case for stacking up a number of these match-ups. The Seahawks and Dolphins may not play at a fast pace, but both of these defenses have allowed a major amount of production. Miami ranks dead last in DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average) and Seattle checks in at 23rd. It’s worth noting that Seattle is a “funnel defense” meaning they are much worse against the pass than they are the run. Their run defense ranks out as the fourth best in terms of DVOA, while their pass defense is the fourth worst. They also may be without several key defensive players, most notably Pro Bowl safety Jamal Adams is looking very iffy to suit up. Meanwhile, Miami is just bad at both levels… which is bad news considering the Seahawks are being slowed down by no one. While Seattle could certainly smash Miami by multiple scores, the Dolphins could still do enough to make this a competitive game. ‘Fitzmagic’ can be a powerful thing. Don’t be surprised if we see this total rise a bit by Sunday. A whopping 86% of the public are currently putting their money on the over in this one (via actionnetwork.com).

Minnesota Vikings @ Houston Texans (-4) | 54.5 O/U

MIN: 25.3 implied points | HOU: 29.3 implied points

MIN: 9th in offensive tempo | HOU: 14th in offensive tempo

After sorting through all of these games, I believe this is the only main slate match-up that features two teams that both rank inside the top half of the league in offensive tempo as well as in the bottom half of DVOA. So, two fast-paced offenses going against two below average defenses AND we get the ‘domed match-up advantage’ with just a four point spread? It’s very possible we see an offensive shootout develop down in Texas this Sunday. Both teams will be searching for their first win of the season after dealing with some pretty brutal schedules up to this point. Houston has really run through the gauntlet after opening the season at Kansas City, versus Baltimore, and at Pittsburgh. Meanwhile, Minnesota has dealt with Green Bay, a sneaky-strong Indianapolis defense, and a scrappy Tennessee team. Plenty of DFS-relevant players could have their best game of the season in this spot.

Quarterbacks to Consider

Potential quarterback targets at high/mid/low price points.

Patrick Mahomes | DK: $7.4k, FD: $8.7k | vs. NE | GPP Preferred

Many people may look at the New England match-up and shy away from spending up on Mahomes this week, but we also just saw this guy shred a Baltimore secondary that many viewed as the best in the league. Also, the Pats haven’t exactly been fantastic against the pass themselves. They rank as the 5th worst pass defense in terms of DVOA and their 72.2% completion rate allowed is the 4th highest in the league. Yes, they did have to play that Russell Wilson guy a couple weeks ago, but the other two starting quarterbacks they’ve faced have been Ryan Fitzpatrick and Derek Carr. You probably don’t have to force Mahomes into a cash lineup but it’s a real possibility that he’ll carry single-digit ownership in GPPs this week. That’s always music to my ears when it comes to Patrick Mahomes.

Joe Burrow | DK: $6.3k, FD: $7.4k | vs. JAX | Cash & GPP

The Bengals have not hesitated to let their No. 1 overall pick sling it three weeks through his rookie season. Burrow’s 141 pass attempts are the second most in the NFL, behind only Dak Prescott (143). He’s completing a decent 64.5% of those passes, which ranks just behind guys like Tom Brady (65.1%), Kyler Murray (66.4%), Ben Roethlisberger (67%), and Aaron Rodgers (67%). Not bad company. He also has taken good care of the ball, with a 5:1 TD:INT ratio thus far. The match-up is the major draw here. Jacksonville ranks dead last in pass defense DVOA, by a wide margin, and they’re allowing an astounding 80% completion rate while surrendering the 5th most FPPG to QBs. Burrow is in a great spot to succeed this Sunday and we should also remember that he can always add a little value with his running ability as well.

Ryan Fitzpatrick | DK: $5.4k, FD: $7.1k | vs. SEA | Cash & GPP

As of Thursday afternoon, Fitzpatrick is the “most loved” QB on DK LineStar (second most loved on FD LineStar). I am inclined to agree with the favoritism among the LineStar users on this one. Fitzpatrick is very affordable and should be involved in a positive gamescript that will require him to throw it a ton against a poor and hobbled Seahawks pass defense (as I hit on above in the “Games to Target” section). The obvious worry surrounding Fitzpatrick is the question of “when will Miami make the switch to Tua?” -- especially if they ever find themselves getting blown out, which is a possibility against Seattle. It would seem at some point the Dolphins are going to get their rookie QB some meaningful reps this year in anticipation of him being the full-time starter in the 2021 season. However, Tagovailoa has been dealing with a non-COVID-19-related illness and hasn’t been practicing this week. You have to assume that it would be highly unlikely Tua makes his NFL debut in a week where he’s battling an illness and not receiving practice reps. If we are basically guaranteed to get four full quarters out of Fitzpatrick in this match-up, he’s a super enticing and affordable DFS option.

Running Backs to Consider

Potential running back targets at high/mid/low price points.

Dalvin Cook | DK: $7.6k, FD: $8.7k | @ HOU | Cash & GPP

There are only about a half dozen or so “gamescript independent” RBs in the NFL and quite a few of those guys are not going to be available options this week. Dalvin Cook is going to see usage whether the Vikings are ahead or behind in this game and his 70.8% snap rate ranks 4th among all NFL RBs. Houston possesses the 9th worst rush defense DVOA and they’ve allowed the 5th most FPPG to RBs this season. Cook is coming off of a week where he racked up 199 all-purpose yards and has found the endzone each of the first three games. You have to feel pretty good about spending up on him in this spot.

Kenyan Drake | DK: $6k, FD: $7k | @ CAR | GPP Preferred

Drake has been a pretty frustrating fantasy asset up to this point. We can likely give him a pass for not crushing in his first two games, as Washington and San Francisco (at the time) possess very strong defensive fronts. However, last week against Detroit was a great match-up that Drake simply didn’t produce. Volume isn’t an issue, as he has been given at least 18 touches every week. Assuming he gets around 20 touches once again, he *should* be in line for a great day against a Panthers team that has the 5th worst run defense and has allowed 44.2 DKFP per game (2nd most). The 32 receptions to RBs allowed by the Panthers are the most in the NFL. Drake has just five catches thus far and that’s an area he could really use a boost in in order to bolster his fantasy scores. I don’t hate Drake as a cash play but I’ll likely stick with him as a GPP option until he can show off the upside he exhibited toward the end of last season.

David Johnson | DK: $5.6k, FD: $6.7k | vs. MIN | Cash & GPP

Both lead RBs are looking like enticing options. Johnson’s 90.3% offensive snap rate is second among NFL RBs, bested only by Ezekiel Elliot (92.8%). It’s pretty clear that Bill O’Brian wants to make that DeAndre Hopkins trade look as “not-so-bad” as possible, so DJ is rarely coming off of the field. The Vikings represent a plus match-up, as they have given up 136 YPG to RBs this season, alongside 37.2 DKFP per game.

Mike Davis | DK: $5.7k, FD: $6.3k | vs. ARI | Cash & GPP

There is really no shortage of viable mid-range RB options on this slate. With CMC sidelined for a few more weeks, Mike Davis is going to be a highly ‘rosterable’ running back, as long as his DFS prices don’t get inflated too much. Davis was on the field for 76% of snaps in week three and his 21 total touches represented a 41.2% market share -- the second-highest percentage of any week three RB. Davis has major appeal in full PPR formats after receiving a whopping 17 targets in the last two weeks. Since the Panthers are slight home underdogs, Davis should see a fair amount of targets head his way once again, as his role appears to mirror Christian McCaffrey’s almost exactly.

Travis Homer | DK: $4k, FD: $5.2k | @ MIA | GPP Only

Chris Carson could be set to miss 1-2 weeks with a knee sprain (though he isn’t currently ruled out yet) which would leave Carlos Hyde as the lead Seahawks RB. However, Hyde has now popped up on the injury report with a shoulder issue and has only practiced on a limited basis as of Thursday. Hyde’s 3.6 YPC average this season isn’t exactly worth writing home about. We could see a legitimate role for Homer this week. Homer is primarily a special teamer but he has amassed 153 yards on 26 career carries (5.9 YPC) and has also caught 13-of-16 targets for an additional 60 yards. If he has a shot at anything close to a dozen touches or so, he could pay off with major value against a Miami team that ranks second-to-last in rush defense DVOA. If both Carson and Hyde are ruled out this week, he’ll be a much more obvious (and safer) target. GPP only flier for now though.

Wide Receivers to Consider

Potential wide receiver targets at high/mid/low price points.

Tyler Lockett | DK: $7k, FD: $7.5k | @ MIA | GPP Preferred

I don’t really think it’s a priority to spend up at WR in cash this week, which is why Lockett is a ‘GPP preferred’ play for me. This seems a bit like chasing points after Lockett’s huge 9/100/3 day off of 13 targets. But he has seen at least eight targets in all three games and Lockett’s three redzone touchdowns are tied for the most in the NFL among WRs. Seattle shouldn’t have much time moving the ball this week, though we may see less pressure put on Russell Wilson to pass as much as he has been forced to over their first three games. Regardless, Lockett is a solid floor/high ceiling option to go with.

Cooper Kupp | DK: $6.7k, FD: $7.2k | vs. NYG | Cash & GPP

Kupp will line up out of the slot for the majority of his routes and go against rookie slot CB Darnay Holmes, who has struggled mightily this season. After a relatively quiet first two games of the season, Kupp broke through with a 9/107/1 game last week and saw ten targets from Jared Goff. The Giants pass defense is in shambles (along with the entire team) so Rams receivers should be in a great spot to succeed this week.

Adam Thielen | DK: $6.6k, FD: $7.1k | @ HOU | GPP Preferred

The week three breakout of rookie WR Justin Jefferson could force defenses to focus less on Thielen and while he may lose a couple targets to Jefferson, it could be an overall good thing for Thielen’s long term fantasy prospects. Houston has covered WRs pretty well this season (8th fewest FPPG allowed to WRs) but in a potential shootout, I like Thielen’s general upside. Always tough to trust a Kirk Cousins-led passing attack, however, so I won’t be looking at Thielen for cash games.

DeVante Parker | DK: $5.7k, FD: $6.5k | vs. SEA | Cash & GPP

By now you get the picture. This is a game you probably want to have some stake in. This Seattle secondary has been absolutely torched thus far and their 79.2 DKFP allowed to WRs per game is over 50% more than the second place defense (Cowboys - 52.7 DKFP allowed to WRs per game). Parker hasn’t had a breakout game just yet, and he has been playing through a hamstring injury, but this could very well be a huge game for the athletic Miami wide receiver.

Odell Beckham Jr. | DK: $5.8k, FD: $6.6k | @ DAL | Cash & GPP

OBJ has been a tough dude to play pretty much ever since he got traded to Cleveland. If there is any time for him to actually have a really good game, it should be against an injured Dallas secondary that has not slowed down anyone. As noted right above, Dallas has allowed the second most FPPG to WRs and the third most to perimeter receivers, which is where Beckham lines up on 87% of his routes. He should be worth significant consideration this week, but he did pop up on Thursday’s injury report with a back issue. Keep an eye on that.

CeeDee Lamb | DK: $5.4k, FD: $5.6k | vs. CLE | Cash & GPP

Lamb has to contend with Amari Cooper, Michael Gallup, and Zeke Elliot for targets on this pass-happy Dallas team, but at the very least he has seen a minimum of six looks in each of his first three professional NFL games. Cleveland has given up the second most FPPG to slot WRs this season, which is where Lamb resides 91% of the time. He should have a solid floor, particularly in PPR formats, but I like his chances at a ceiling game this week.

Damiere Byrd | DK: $3k, FD: $4.5k | @ KC | GPP Preferred

Let’s see if we can land on some minimum salary gold with Byrd this week. Byrd leads all Patriots receivers with a lofty 89.8% offensive snap rate. Just two weeks ago, when the Pats were trailing the Seahawks for much of the game, Byrd saw nine targets from Cam Newton (hauled in six for 72 yards). Considering they’re going on the road to face the Chiefs, New England may be forced into another pass-oriented gamescript. Byrd won’t need to do much to return value and he’ll be on the field on nearly every offensive snap.

Tight Ends to Consider

Tight end targets at high/mid/low price points.

Darren Waller | DK: $5.2k, FD: $6.7k | vs. BUF | Cash & GPP

To state the obvious, there is definitely no reason to hit the panic button on Waller after a very quiet week where he caught just two passes for nine yards against New England. If there is one coach in the NFL who is a master at taking away an offense’s top weapon, it’s Bill Bellichick. Waller should be a centerpiece in this Raiders passing game as they take on a Buffalo defense that has allowed the 7th most DKFP per game to TEs.

TJ Hockenson | DK: $4.8k, FD: $5.4k | vs. NO | Cash & GPP

Could we see a little ‘flowchart’ strategy developing against this Saints D? New Orleans has been torched by opposing tight ends and have surrendered the most FPPG to the position this season. Hockenson’s 16.8% target share is tied for the team lead and he’s been on the field for 71.6% of offensive snaps. This game possesses a solid scoring environment so I’d be fine with looking toward Hockenson as a viable mid-range TE option.

Rob Gronkowski | DK: $3.6k, FD: $5.2k | vs. LAC | GPP Preferred

The Bucs may be pretty shorthanded with pass catchers this week, as Chris Godwin (hamstring) is very unlikely to suit up and now Scotty Miller (hip/groin) has been missing practices as well. With Mike Evans likely drawing shadow coverage from the talented Casey Hayward, Tom Brady has to find someone reliable to throw to. Gronk saw seven targets head his way last week and may see similar volume against the Chargers.

Defenses to Consider

D/ST is a very volatile “position” and shouldn’t take up too much time in your DFS research. However, here are two D/STs I’m on board with this week.

Baltimore Ravens | DK: $4k, FD: $5k | vs. WAS | Cash & GPP

The expensive but safer option. After getting spanked by Patrick Mahomes & Co., look for this highly talented and aggressive Ravens defense to full send it against a Washington Football Team that possesses a slate-low 15.8 implied point total.

Kansas City Chiefs | DK: $3.2k, FD: $3.8k | vs. NE | GPP Preferred

The more affordable but riskier option. The Chiefs have held all three of their 2020 opponents to 20 points on the dot. They also looked great against Lamar Jackson, as they were able to sack him four times and allowed him to pass for just 97 yards. The Patriots, with Cam Newton, offer up a fairly similar offensive attack, so maybe this defense can impress yet again this week.

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