Several key injuries open up opportunities for many offensive players on this slate. That will bring a lot of chalk into play on Sunday... do you risk fading some of these high-owned guys in smash spots?

By: @Ryan_Humphries

Week 4 NFL PreSnap Podcast 🎙️

Catch Tyler Wiemann and Shannon Sommerville's run down on this Sunday's NFL DFS main slate!

Also, for anyone looking to roll out some NFL props this week, be sure to check out the info and videos at the end of this article on LineStar's new Prop Edge+ for NFL tool and how it can help you make some extra cash -- especially on sites like PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!

A free two-pick PrizePicks "Power Play" is posted at the end of this article as well!

Week 4 DFS Main Slate Rundown 📝

Big decisions must be made in week four because there are several surefire chalk plays on the board. We'll discuss some of these highly owned options and some standout pivot plays. Let's keep crushing it on Sunday!

Main slate match-ups with implied point totals and spreads:

Weather Report

As a reminder, weather plays less of a factor in football than it does in other sports but it is still worth making note of any games that could see wet conditions, high winds, or (when we get into the winter months) frigid, snowy conditions.

The forecasts can always change so, as always, run a final weather check closer to kickoff!

CHI @ NYG (1:00 ET, 39 O/U): Shaping up to be a little sloppy here. High chance for rain with 60+% coverage, cool temps in the mid-50s, and winds blowing around 15 mph.

JAX @ PHI (1:00 ET, 45.5 O/U): Very similar conditions to NY. Rainy, cool, and windy (15-20 mph).

BUF @ BAL (1:00 ET, 51 O/U): Much of the same here as well. Rain is likely (80+% coverage), temps in the low-50s, and winds blowing around 15 mph.

Quarterbacks to Consider

Potential quarterback targets at high/mid/low price points.

Josh Allen, BUF | DK: $8.4k, FD: $8.9k | @ BAL

The clear knock on spending up for Allen this week falls on this game's potential for poor weather. However, even in rainy/windy conditions, Allen can always offset a downgraded passing attack with some extra rushing production. And, as of now, this game still possesses the highest total on the slate with a 51 O/U. The Ravens' defense is dealing with a slew of injuries that are negatively impacting them at all three levels. Through three weeks, they are allowing the most FPPG to QBs and 11.2 yards per completion. Josh Allen has also faced the second-lowest pressure rate among NFL QBs, and the Ravens have forced the 7th lowest pressure rate defensively.

Justin Herbert, LAC | DK: $7.1k, FD: $8k | @ HOU

After being hampered by a rib cartilage injury, Herbert has been practicing in full this week and comes into week four without an injury designation. The Chargers will look to bounce back from an embarrassing 38-10 blowout loss to Jacksonville last week. For the third consecutive week, Herbert will not have top target Keenan Allen (hamstring) at his disposal. Herbert has still managed to average over 300 YPG on a pass-happy Chargers offense with the 8th highest pass play% in the NFL (66%). With other top QBs on the slate dealing with potential wet/windy weather conditions, Herbert will draw a domed match-up with a Texans defense that has allowed 12.5 yards per pass completions (3rd highest in NFL). Folks would have been all over him in this match-up and at these DFS prices a couple of weeks ago, but Herbert figures to fly under the radar at around 5% ownership. Keep him on the radar as a GPP pivot off of guys like Allen, Hurts, and Jackson.

Marcus Mariota, ATL | DK: $5.6k, FD: $7.3k | vs. CLE

Mariota will be a popular spend-down target at QB this week, but for good reason. He is averaging 8.1 YPA, which currently ranks 6th among NFL QBs. More importantly, Mariota has been able to add value with his legs. He ran for 72 yards and a score in week one and tacked on another rushing score last week. He has some decent weapons around him between rookie WR Drake London, second-year TE Kyle Pitts, and the versatile RB Cordarrelle Patterson. All three are viable stack options but running with “naked” Mariota makes plenty of sense as well. The Browns' defense is also dealing with several injuries to their starters. Superstar edge rusher Myles Garrett will be the most notable absence in this game after being ruled out due to injuries sustained earlier in a car accident. 

Running Backs to Consider

Potential running back targets at high/mid/low price points.

Saquon Barkley, NYG | DK: $8k, FD: $8.1k | vs. CHI

Paying up at RB has not exactly been ‘the move’ through the first few weeks. At some point, guys like Jonathan Taylor, CMC, and Derrick Henry will break open slates… perhaps as soon as this week. We’ve already seen Saquon have multiple big games this season and he continues to lead all NFL RBs with an 86.3% snap%. On top of his 17.7 carries/gm, he also accounts for a 17.6% TGT% and has been essentially game flow independent -- meaning, no matter the score, as long as the game is reasonably close, Saquon is getting touches. The unfortunate season-ending knee injury that Sterling Shepard suffered last week could also mean even more passing game work for Saquon. Poor weather in this game could add an extra emphasis on both the running game and the short passing game. The Bears rank 22nd in rush DVOA and have allowed the most rushing first downs in the NFL and the second-most rushing yards overall.

Austin Ekeler, LAC | DK: $7.7k, FD: $8.4k | @ HOU

Ekeler has yet to find the endzone and is averaging a meager 2.5 YPC on 32 attempts. However, he does lead all NFL RBs in targets (22), receptions (21), and receiving yards (139). If there is a week for an Ekeler breakout performance, it feels like this would be it. The Texans have allowed the most FPPG to RBs this season along with an awful 5.6 YPC average. If Ekeler can turn in some solid yardage on the ground, that will just be an additional bonus on top of his already elite role as a receiving RB.

Jamaal Williams, DET | DK: $6.1k, FD: $7.4k | vs. SEA

Aaaaaand here we arrive at “Chalk RB #1” for this slate. Williams was already handling a valuable workload (15.7 touch/gm), including heavy redzone usage (84.6% RZ team rush%). Now that D’Andre Swift (shoulder) is ruled out, Williams should take on a fully featured role that could net him 20-30 touches. The Lions are -3.5 favorites at home against a Seahawks defense that ranks 21st in rush DVOA and has allowed the 3rd most FPPG to RBs. Jamaal Williams will be certified chalk on this slate, and if he bombs, he wouldn’t be the first chalk bust of the season (by a long shot)… but fade at your own risk!

Khalil Herbert, CHI | DK: $5.7k, FD: $7.2k | @ NYG

Please welcome “Chalk RB #2” onto the stage. Herbert ran wild against Houston in week three with a 20-157-2 rushing line (35.5% touch%, ranked 4th among Wk3 RBs) after David Montgomery was forced out of the action due to knee/ankle injuries. Those same injuries will keep Montgomery sidelined in week four. Previously, Herbert has thrived as a feature back and will likely handle around 20 touches again this week. And, as mentioned above with Saquon Barkley, the weather conditions in this game will favor the ground games and short dump-off passes.

Dameon Pierce, HOU | DK: $5.6k, FD: $6.8k | vs. LAC

Is the Dameon Pierce takeover officially underway? While he still “only” played on 59% of snaps last week, his 22 touches on Houston’s 57 total offensive plays represented a massive 38.6% touch%, which ranked 3rd among all NFL RBs for the week. Pierce did fumble twice but both were recovered by the Texans. As long as that doesn’t put him in the doghouse, Pierce should continue to work as the featured back. This is not a good Texans offense, but it’s all about a 20+ touch opportunity with Pierce.

Wide Receivers to Consider

Potential wide receiver targets at high/mid/low price points.

Michael Pittman Jr., IND | DK: $7.2k, FD: $7.5k | vs. TEN

While it wasn’t a monster game, Pittman returned from a quad injury that held him out in week two and went on to lead the Colts in targets (9), receptions (8), and receiving yards (72) in their week three upset of the Chiefs. Now he’ll draw a plus match-up against a jury-rigged Titans secondary that recently resorted to signing CB Terrance Mitchell off of the Patriots practice squad. Pittman (84% perimeter route%) should be matched up with Mitchell and CB Kristian Fulton for much of this game on the outside. The Titans have surrendered the most FPPG to perimeter receivers, and there is very little threat to Pittman’s target share. Pittman combined for 27 targets in two games against the Titans last season, and he’ll be in the discussion to see another 10-15 targets in this game as well.

CeeDee Lamb, DAL | DK: $6.7k, FD: $6.8k | vs. WAS

Only one WR on this slate has more targets than Lamb (34), and it’s the top-priced option on the board in Stefon Diggs, who edges Lamb out with 35 targets on the year. So, as it turns out, having Cooper Rush as his QB hasn’t handicapped Lamb as much as some thought. Lamb is still only catching 50% of his targets, but he’ll have a chance to improve that catch% against a Washington defense, allowing the 3rd most FPPG to WRs.

Tyler Lockett, SEA | DK: $5.9k, FD: $6.9k | @ DET

Lockett and QB Geno Smith have built a nice rapport over the last couple of weeks. Lockett now leads the team with a 26% TGT%, 40.3% AirYard%, and his 10.4-yard aDOT opens up a nice ceiling for him as well. He draws an advantageous match-up against a Lions secondary that has allowed the 8th most FPPG to WRs. They’ve been worse against the slot and right perimeter receivers, which is where Lockett has combined to run 89% of his routes (45% slot, 44% RWR). This is a domed match-up that projects for a fairly high total, so I believe we can feel good about Lockett as a mid-range option this Sunday.

Josh Reynolds, DET | DK: $4.6k, FD: $5.9k | vs. SEA

The Lions will be playing without several key weapons on Sunday. No Amon-Ra St. Brown (ankle), no DJ Chark Jr. (ankle), no D’Andre Swift (shoulder), and of course, they are still without 2022 first-round pick Jameson Williams (knee). Between St. Brown, Chark, and Swift, that leaves a 58.3% TGT% up for grabs. Reynolds (ankle) is a little banged up as well but is currently expected to play. He commanded 10 targets last week, catching six for 96 yards. Expect similar volume to head in his direction in this game as well. For a pure punt play, Lions WR Kalif Raymond (DK: $3.1k, FD: $4.9k) should be elevated to full-time slot duties this week.

Romeo Doubs, GB | DK: $4.5k, FD: $5.9k | vs. NE

I’m fairly conflicted on this play because of all of the speculation that Doubs is the newly anointed WR1 for Aaron Rodgers and the Packers. Catching 8-of-8 targets in week three while playing 89% of snaps will help his chances of maintaining a key role in the Packers' passing game. However, Doubs’ upside could be a touch limited without a touchdown, considering most of his targets are coming near the line of scrimmage (4.4-yard aDOT). That said, he’s not a bad option for GPPs, and he is seeing some valuable redzone looks. If we get one more strong week out of Doubs where he continues to earn the confidence of Aaron Rodgers, then we might be cookin’ here.

Richie James Jr., NYG | DK: $4k, FD: $5.5k | vs. CHI

With Sterling Shepard (knee) done for the season, other Giants receivers will have to step in and soak up the 27% TGT% that Shepard leaves behind. James has already been a pretty reliable option out of the slot this season. He has earned a 20% TGT% and has caught 82.4% of his targets. Expect James to command a solid target floor for the foreseeable future because what else are the Giants going to do? Throw it to Kenny Dropallday?

Tight Ends to Consider

Tight end targets at high/mid/low price points.

Kyle Pitts, ATL | DK: $5k, FD: $6.1k | vs. CLE

By all means, if you’ve got the scratch for him, Mark Andrews (DK: $7.1k, FD: $8.4k) continues to dominate and should be involved in a high-scoring game environment this week. But Pitts is worth a look as well at a much lower price point. While it would help if Marcus Mariota could be a bit more on point with his deep passes, Kyle Pitts is at least seeing those deep shots down the field. He leads all tight ends with a 15.3-yard aDOT, and after some media criticism about Pitts’ lack of usage in the passing game, he saw a season-high eight targets in week three (42% TGT) and commanded 53% of Atlanta’s total week three air yards. He might be able to exploit a banged-up Browns defense in this game.

TJ Hockenson, DET | DK: $4.1k, FD: $5.4k | vs. SEA

As mentioned above with Josh Reynolds, between St. Brown, Chark, and Swift (all ruled out), a combined 58.3% TGT% needs to be soaked up by other Lions receivers. Hockenson is already averaging a respectable 6.0 TGT/gm, but he could realistically approach double-digit targets on Sunday. He should be the go-to cash game TE on this slate.

Daniel Bellinger, NYG | DK: $2.8k, FD: $4.6k | vs. CHI

Bellinger should mainly be considered on DraftKings if you’re searching for a complete punt/dart throw. Just like with the aforementioned Hockenson, Daniel Bellinger may be asked to step up as a receiver due to multiple Giants WRs injuries. The fourth-round rookie TE played on a season-high 60% of snaps last week and caught 4-of-5 targets for 40 yards. The week before, he brought in his lone target for a 16-yard touchdown. It won’t take much for him to hit value at $2,800 on DK.

Defenses to Consider

D/ST is a very volatile “position” and shouldn’t take up too much time in your DFS research. However, here are some D/STs I’m on board with this week.

Overall: Dallas Cowboys | DK: $3.5k, FD: $4.7k | vs. WAS

DraftKings Preferred: New York Giants | DK: $3.1k, FD: $4.3k | vs. CHI

FanDuel Preferred: Arizona Cardinals | DK: $2.8k, FD: $3.2k | @ CAR

Stacks & Bring Backs 🥞

Below are a few team/game stack ideas to consider for this slate. In some examples, I will include a “bring back” option which will feature a normal "QB + Receiver" stack along with a player from the opposing team in the same game that could also benefit should the primary "QB + Receiver" stack go off.

QB + WR + Opp Receiver

Josh Allen, Stefon Diggs, Mark Andrews

QB + WR + Opp Receiver

Jalen Hurts, AJ Brown, Christian Kirk

QB + Two Pass Catchers (aka “Double Stack”)

Marcus Mariota, Drake London, Kyle Pitts

QB + Two Pass Catchers (aka “Double Stack”)

Justin Herbert, Mike Williams, Gerald Everett

Full Team Stack - QB/WR/RB

Russell Wilson, Courtland Sutton, Javonte Williams

Value Team Stack

Jared Goff, TJ Hockenson, Jamaal Williams

“Ugly Duckling Stack” | QB + WR + Opp RB

Daniel Jones, Richie James Jr., Khalil Herbert

Touchdown Call 🏈

Jamaal Williams, DET | DK: $6.1k, FD: $7.4k | vs. SEA

Reminder: Follow @LineStarApp on Twitter and retweet the weekly Touchdown Calls tweet! Three retweeters are randomly selected and assigned a player from the TD calls between myself, @FlatTyler83, and @ShannonOnSports. If your player scores a touchdown, you’ll win your choice of cash (via PayPal) or a one-month subscription to LineStar!

PrizePicks Sunday NFL Power Play ⚡

This is a two-pick NFL "Power Play" I have over on PrizePicks. Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but these three props did stand out so I'll be rolling it out with confidence!

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Once again, if you have any questions DM me on Twitter or hit me up in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck this week!

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