By: @Ryan_Humphries

Catch up on all other LineStar NFL content:

🏈 2021 NFL Season Primer & Strategy Guide

📰 Week 4 Primetime Preview (Previews & Plays for TNF/SNF/MNF)

🎯 Week 3 Takeaway by @ZeroInDenver

🔊 PreSnap Podcast every Tuesday, Thursday & Friday!

👇 Subscribe wherever you listen to podcasts! 👇

iTunes | Google Podcasts | Spotify | iHeartRADIO | Stitcher | YouTube

Welcome back for another look ahead towards the Sunday NFL main slate! With three weeks in the books, our knowledge, and data set for the 2021 season help us grow even more the wiser. We’ll once again have a 13-game main slate to break down and analyze this week. There is no particular aspect about this slate that really needs pointing out other than the fact that many injuries, particularly to key WRs, may open up some cheap viable DFS options this week. Perhaps a "stars and scrubs" approach will be the most viable it's been since all of the week one mispricings! Let’s go ahead and dive right into some potential game stack targets and recommended plays at every position and price point!

Main slate match-ups with implied point totals and spreads:

Week 3 Main Slate Perfect Lineups 💯

Games to Target 🎯

Obvious Game Stack

Arizona Cardinals @ Los Angeles Rams (-4.5) | 55 O/U

ARI: 25.3 implied points | LAR: 29.8 implied points

Notable Offensive Skill Position Injuries: WR DeAndre Hopkins (ribs) - Questionable, RB Darrell Henderson Jr. (ribs) - Questionable

Score Prediction: ARI: 27, LAR: 33

Game Notes: Huge NFC West match-up with the winner pulling ahead for the division lead. 55 O/U -- the highest game total of the week. Rams rank 1st overall in situation-neutral pace. Cardinals currently rank 14th in situation-neutral pace but we may start seeing a more up-tempo Cardinals offense when they're involved in more competitive games (ARI ranked 1st in situation-neutral pace in 2020, 2nd in overall pace). This game features two of the top three offenses on a points per game basis: ARI - 34.3 PPG (T-1st), LAR - 31.7 PPG (3rd). Plenty of great fantasy-relevant players to choose from here!

Contrarian Game Stack

Washington Football Team (-1.5) @ Atlanta Falcons | 47.5 O/U

WAS: 24.5 implied points | ATL: 23.0 implied points

Notable Offensive Skill Position Injuries: RB Antonio Gibson (shin) - Questionable, WR Russell Gage (ankle) - Questionable

Score Prediction: WAS - 27, ATL - 24

Game Notes: This is definitely one of those games that no one would be excited to tune into unless they're fans, but there is some fairly sneaky fantasy value in this match-up along with some shootout potential. First off, it isn’t as if the bookies are expecting this to be a defensive struggle -- the 47.5 O/U is the 6th highest total on the slate. The Washington (29th) and Atlanta (30th) defenses both rank near the bottom of the league in overall DVOA. The Washington (9th) and Atlanta (11th) offenses have played at a fairly quick pace in situation-neutral circumstances. Atlanta has also accounted for the 5th highest pass rate (65.6% pass play%), which should only help to increase the overall number of plays in this game. More plays = more opportunities = more fantasy points.

Quarterbacks to Consider

Potential quarterback targets at high/mid/low price points.

Josh Allen, BUF | DK: $8k, FD: $8.5k | vs. HOU

After a 5-TD performance in week three, Allen provided us with a nice reminder of the type of fantasy ceiling he actually possesses. The Houston Texans have given up the 9th most FPPG to opposing QBs, and their list of QBs faced is not exactly a daunting one: Trevor Lawrence, Baker Mayfield, and Sam Darnold. The Bills are incredibly strong -16.5 point favorites in this game, so there is some blowout concern. But you still have to assume that if this game does turn into a rout, then Allen already had a monster day in the process.

Jalen Hurts, PHI | DK: $6.9k, FD: $7.9k | vs. KC

Hurts might be bordering on “match-up proof” territory soon. Even in a 20 point blowout loss to Dallas on Monday night, Hurts still posted a solid fantasy performance thanks to some help from garbage time (which may come into play on Sunday). In week two, with the Eagles scoring only 11 total points and Hurts not passing for a single TD or over 200 yards, he still accumulated 21.8 FP thanks to his rushing ability (82 yards and a TD). Now he draws a match-up against a Chiefs defense that ranks dead last in both pass & rush DVOA. They’re allowing the 3rd most FPPG to opposing QBs, including the most QB rushing yards (43.3 YPG). Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs offense should do their usual thing and force Hurts and the Eagles offense to stay aggressive themselves.

Taylor Heinicke, WAS | DK: $5.9k, FD: $7.4k | @ ATL

Any Heinicke believers? He’s posted 20+ FP in both of his starts this season while completing just under 70% of his passes and, as a cherry on top, he’s shown some dual-threat ability. The match-up with Atlanta is a great one, especially compared next to the Bills defense that Heinicke just faced last week. The Falcons rank 26th in pass DVOA and have allowed the 5th most FPPG to QBs, including the 4th most rushing yards to QBs. I mentioned above how this game, while ugly on the surface, does possess some sneaky fast-paced shootout potential. Heinicke will set up as an excellent leverage option in GPPs and won’t break the bank.

Running Backs to Consider

Potential running back targets at high/mid/low price points.

Alvin Kamara, NO | DK: $8.4k, FD: $9k | vs. NYG

If you want the safer stud RB, by all means, find the extra cash to pay up for Derrick Henry ($8.8k/$10.2k) -- much easier to accomplish on DK. Kamara may very well possess a third of Henry's ownership in DFS contests on Sunday, yet both should have similar ceilings. Everyone has already seen a Henry ceiling game this season but Kamara has yet to break loose for one of those 30+ FP days. This should be a great environment to do just that. The Saints return home to the Superdome for the first time this season after Hurricane Ida displaced the team last month. It should be a raucous environment in front of a spirited home crowd. The Saints are favored over a touchdown against a Giants team that has permitted the 7th most FPPG to opposing RBs. They have also allowed the 2nd highest receiving production to RBs -- an average of seven receptions and 67.3 yards receiving per game. Let Kamara cook!

D’Andre Swift, DET | DK: $6.2k, FD: $7.7k | @ DET

The DK price is a bit disrespectful towards the current overall RB3 in PPR scoring. In terms of Detroit RB snaps, it’s about a 60/40 split in favor of Swift over Jamaal Williams. Whether it’s just ‘coach speak’ or not, there is buzz around Swift’s role increasing moving forward. This game against Chicago is 0-3 Detroit’s most winnable match-up to date and I would look for Swift to handle around 15 carries and see 7-10 targets (a lofty target projection, but realistic). The Chicago defense ranks 17th in run DVOA, so they’re not the stingiest of defensive fronts.

Antonio Gibson, WAS | DK: $6.1k, FD: $7.1k | @ ATL

Gibson took an early second-quarter screen to the house for 73 yards against the Bills last Sunday. He ended the day with only one other target and 13 total touches. Those are the kinda things that make ya say “hmm….” But, that game was pretty much a lost cause from the get-go for the Football Team, so game script could have certainly played a factor in Gibson’s limited touches. This week, he could find himself in a 20+ touch scenario as WFT goes into Atlanta as slight road favorites. The Falcons D-Line is noticeably outmatched here and I would look for Gibson to have no major problems finding running room and, hopefully, a handful of targets along the way as well.

Note: Gibson was held out of Thursday's practice due to a shin injury, but it'd be a surprise if he's not active on Sunday.

Zack Moss, BUF | DK: $5.3k, FD: $6k | vs. HOU

It is still premature to make any sort of firm stance on this Bills backfield, but Moss has been getting some valuable work in the red zone and out-snapped Devin Singletary 44-to-34 last week. The Bills lead all teams this week with a 31.8 implied team total and they’re also the heaviest favorites as well (-16.5). Unless Josh Allen does everything himself (which is possible), Moss feels like about an even money bet to find the end zone and handle around 15 total touches. For these salaries in this match-up (HOU: 30th in run DVOA), that may be plenty enough volume to produce value.

Cordarrelle Patterson, ATL | DK: $4.9k, FD: $6k | vs. WAS

Leave it to the Atlanta Falcons to take a player like Cordarrelle Patterson and make him fantasy-relevant. Patterson has been a borderline top 10 RB in both PPR and half PPR scoring through three weeks. He’s only been on the field for around 35% of offensive snaps, but he’s clearly a guy the Falcons are relying on the help move the chains and sustain drives. He’s also carving out a well-defined red zone role. Patterson’s ability to run, catch, and even return kicks makes him the Swiss army knife on a team lacking any real playmakers outside of Calvin Ridley and Kyle Pitts. He’ll draw some GPP interest from me in week four.

Wide Receivers to Consider

Potential wide receiver targets at high/mid/low price points.

Davante Adams, GB | DK: $7.9k, FD: $8.1k | vs. PIT

You may recall a time not all too long ago -- it was the year 2020 and the Rodgers-to-Adams connection was in full swing. Many weeks, that led to Adams being priced well into the $9k range on both DraftKings and FanDuel. Due to DFS pricing for this week being released before the Packers/49ers SNF game was completed, the 12/132/1 night that Adams had (on 18 targets!) is not being factored into his week four salaries. Time to take advantage! His 37.3% TGT% ranks 2nd in the NFL and he’ll face off with a Steelers secondary that has allowed the 2nd most FPPG to perimeter WRs and 4th most to slot WRs -- Adams has run 59% of his routes on the perimeter, 41% out of the slot. But, the main point to make here is: “Davante Adams, good.”

Calvin Ridley, ATL | DK: $7k, FD: $7.2k | vs. WAS

Is this the week we get a Ridley breakout performance? I won’t hold my breath, but it’s at least a moderately strong possibility. Ridley is still seeing right around 10 targets/gm alongside a strong 25.3% TGT%. He also owns a 46.7% share of his team’s entire targeted air yard volume, the 3rd highest % in the league behind only Brandin Cooks (59.3% AirYard%… insane) and Justin Jefferson (47.7% AirYard%). A major issue that has held Ridley's fantasy numbers in check is the fact that his downfield looks have decreased and his 12.5 yard aDOT from 2020 has been reduced down to an 8.8 yard aDOT through three games this season. If the Falcons coaching staff gets some sense knocked into them and if Matt Ryan can stave off the fossilization process for just a couple more months or so, hopefully, we’ll see Ridley post some massive numbers that we expected out of him going into the season. This is a great match-up on paper against a Football Team defense that has allowed the 2nd most FPPG to WRs!

Deebo Samuel, SF | DK: $6.5k, FD: $6.9k | vs. SEA

While the Rams/Cardinals game will be the sexy NFC West match-up that draws the most attention, this is a very important game for both the 49ers (2-1) and Seahawks (1-2) as well. The Niners backfield situation continues to be a complete mess and, until further notice, I’m just avoiding the headache altogether. But I won’t be so averse to the passing game, particularly when it comes to Deebo Samuel. He has a 33% TGT% through three weeks and while his box score against the Packers was not all too impressive (10 tgt, 5 rec, 52 yds, 0 TD), he did come up with some incredibly strong catches in crucial moments which not many WRs in the NFL would have made. Samuel is a YAC monster and his 185 yards after the catch trails only RB D’Andre Swift (197 YAC) for the NFL lead. In a potential shootout environment with plenty of offense, I could see Samuel producing another ceiling performance on Sunday afternoon.

Odell Beckham Jr., CLE | DK: $5.8k, FD: $6.6k | @ MIN

OBJ got his first taste of NFL action in nearly a year last week and played on 64% of snaps while seeing a healthy nine targets, hauling in five for 77 yards. All-in-all, it was a solid return for Beckham who accounted for 49% of the total targeted air yards for Cleveland in week three. Baker Mayfield was also looking for him deep down the field, evidenced by his high 16.6 aDOT. Minnesota has been lit up for the 4th most FPPG by opposing WRs this year and OBJ will draw plenty of advantageous coverage from struggling CBs Patrick Peterson and Bashaud Breeland. The Vikings have a capable offense on the other side that could force the Browns to abandon their run-heavy game plan an increase their aggression in the passing game, especially if Cleveland happens to fall behind by multiple scores.

Corey Davis, NYJ | DK: $5k, FD: $5.7k | vs. TEN

Up to this point, the Jets have played three defenses that rank inside the top five in pass DVOA: CAR (1st), NE (4th), and DEN (5th). As long as Zach Wilson can lower the completions he’s making to the other team, there should be more potential for Corey Davis who will be running up against a Titans defense (22nd in pass DVOA) that is less well-equipped in the secondary than the Jets previous three opponents. You also have the elusive #RevengeNarrative working here as Davis faces off with his former team.

Jaylen Waddle, MIA | DK: $4.9k, FD: $5.4k | vs. IND

The good: Waddle caught 12-of-13 (!) targets from new starting QB Jacoby Brissett in week three. The bad: that only amounted to 58 yards (4.8 YPC) with a long of nine yards. But, hey, volume is volume. Given that sort of target share, Waddle is normally going to create far more yards after the catch than he did last Sunday. He gets a promising match-up with a Colts defense that struggles in defending short/intermediate passes, which has of course been the area of the field where Waddle has been living. It didn't take long for Will Fuller (chest/elbow) to land on the injury report after making his Dolphins debut in week three. If he's out, Waddle's target share should become even more secured. The Brissett + Waddle combo could be a nice little QB/WR value stack to try out in some lineups.

Emmanuel Sanders, BUF | DK: $4.9k, FD: $5.8k | vs. HOU

Manny made his first big splash in a Bills uniform last week when he for 5/94/2 against the Football Team. He actually leads all Bills WRs with an 83.8% snap% (Diggs - 81%, Beasley - 72%, G. Davis - 28%) and will make for a nice affordable piece to Josh Allen GPP stacks. Blowout factor be damned.

Terrace Marshall Jr., CAR | DK: $4k, FD: $5k | @ DAL

TMJ played a season-high 62% of snaps in week three and I’m willing to bet that wasn’t just a coincidence following the Christian McCaffrey injury. Panthers alpha WR1 DJ Moore is a candidate to see potential shadow coverage from Cowboys CB Trevon Diggs, who is quickly turning into one of the league’s best lockdown corners and has snared an interception in every game this season. Robby Anderson makes for an intriguing GPP target as a deep threat, but it’s also possible we see Marshall’s role expand out of the slot where he could help act as an extension of the running game via short-to-intermediate slant/curl/drag/quick out routes.

Collin Johnson, NYG | DK: $3.2k, FD: $5.2k | @ NO

Darius Slayton and Sterling Shepard both left last week’s game with hamstring injuries and Kenny Golladay (hip) is busted up as well. There’s a chance that one, two, or all three guys will miss Sunday’s game against the Saints. The week three injuries led to a 49% snap% for Johnson where he tied for the team lead in targets (7), corralling five for 51 yards. First round rookie WR Kadarius Toney ($3.3k/$4.9k) is another candidate to see significant usage, particularly if Shepard sits as Toney profiles more as a slot WR. He played 66% of snaps last week but only had three targets that went for two catches and 16 yards.

Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, TEN | DK: $3.2k, FD: $5.3k | @ NYJ

AJ Brown and Julio Jones are both banged up and have yet to practice as of Thursday. If one or both are sidelined on Sunday, Westbrook-Ikhine is in line for a ton of snaps against a bad Jets defense. Among Titans WRs in week three, NWI played a team-high 78% of snaps and posted a 4/53/1 stat line.

Tight Ends to Consider

Tight end targets at high/mid/low price points.

Travis Kelce, KC | DK: $8.1k, FD: $8.2k | @ PHI

Simply the best in the game at the position. If you’re tired of getting burned by inferior tight ends, cough up the dough for Kelce this week. The Eagles just got torched by Dalton Schultz for 6/80/2 on Monday Night Football. To state the obvious: Kelce > Schultz. The Chiefs may be looking to make a statement following their week three loss at home, as well. We already know he has one of the most secure fantasy floors in all of football. But... maybe we have a Kelce ceiling game incoming?

Noah Fant, DEN | DK: $4.3k, FD: $5.7k | vs. BAL

Even with TJ Hockenson posting a complete dud against Baltimore last week, the Ravens are still averaging the most FPPG allowed to opposing TEs -- nearly eight catches, 100 yards, and a TD each game to the position. Though… it’s hard to blame them since they’ve already faced off against both Travis Kelce and Darren Waller this year. The Broncos passing offense didn’t have to do much in order to coast to a 26-0 victory against the Jets last week. As a result, despite playing 87% of snaps, Fant had a quiet three target, two catch day (15 yards). The Ravens should force a more competitive game script and the Broncos lost another receiving option last week (KJ Hamler) to go along with Jerry Jeudy, who is still shelved on the IR. I would expect Fant to garner around seven or eight targets in this game.

Tommy Tremble, CAR | DK: $2.5k, FD: $4.8k | @ DAL

These TE ultra punts are usually best reserved for DraftKings players considering the DK bare minimum salary for the position sits at $2,500. That’s of course where rookie TE Tommy Tremble checks in this week. The Panthers just traded away TE Dan Arnold to the Jags, who had played 38.5% of snaps for Carolina this season. Tremble has played 28.2% of snaps up to this point, while Ian Thomas (primarily a blocking tight end) has led the way at the position with a 58.2% snap%. I believe the Panthers will be comfortable with Tremble playing around half of the offensive snaps almost right away. He could be another beneficiary in the CMC-less Panthers offense for the immediate future as well. Even just three or four receptions could be great for a player who costs $2,500 on DK.

Defenses to Consider

D/ST is a very volatile “position” and shouldn’t take up too much time in your DFS research. However, here are two D/STs I’m on board with this week.

Safer but more expensive option:

New Orleans Saints | DK: $3.8k, FD: $4.8k | vs. NYG

It should be an unruly environment at the Superdome for the Saints first true home opener of the season. The Giants offense is really banged up and could realistically be without its three top WRs. The Giants carry a lowly 17.3 implied point total, which is ahead of only the Houston Texans (15.3 implied points) this week.

Riskier but more affordable option:

Detroit Lions | DK: $2.2k, FD: $4.1k | @ CHI

Better punt play on DK at $200 above minimum salary. The Lions just held the Ravens to 19 total points while adding four sacks and a pick. Regardless of whether it’s the ineffective Justin Fields or a banged up Andy Dalton under center this week, the Lions should be able to secure some decent D/ST points here.

Touchdown Call 🏈

Odell Beckham Jr., CLE | DK: $5.8k, FD: $6.6k | @ MIN

Weekly NFL Freeroll + LineStar Avatar

We’ll be hosting a weekly NFL freeroll on DraftKings, so remember to join!

DM us on Twitter to claim your prize!

Here is a link for this week’s LineStar freeroll!

• 1st place: $10 via PayPal

• 2nd-3rd place: Your choice of one-month LineStar Premium subscription, t-shirt or mug

• BONUS - If you place 1st, 2nd or 3rd in the LineStar Freeroll and you are using the LineStar avatar below, you will receive 2x that prize!

Please Note - While you may enter the LineStar freeroll as often as you’d like, you can only win each prize 1 time.

Once again, if you have any questions DM me on Twitter or hit me up in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck this week!

Let us know if you enjoyed the issue with a Yes or No below!