By: @Ryan_Humphries

Catch up on all other LineStar NFL content:

🏈 2021 NFL Season Primer & Strategy Guide

📰 Week 5 Primetime Preview (Previews & Plays for TNF/SNF/MNF)

🎯 Week 4 Takeaway by @ZeroInDenver

🔊 PreSnap Podcast every Tuesday, Thursday & Friday!

👇 Subscribe wherever you listen to podcasts! 👇

iTunes | Google Podcasts | Spotify | iHeartRADIO | Stitcher | YouTube

Strong four-game sample size for every NFL team is in the books. I always believe week five is when the data we have at hand for the current season begins to become a bit more reliable and generally helpful. It’s not ideal, but it’s a solid start! This is the final week in the NFL before byes begin to hit, so let’s have fun with this larger main slate before they start slimming down over the next couple months! A dozen games await on deck this Sunday. The slate may not be loaded with intriguing marquee match-ups but there are some good ones mixed in there and perhaps a couple diamonds in the rough with plenty of DFS goodness to extract. Now, let’s make like Urban Meyer and get our hands on this slate!

Main slate match-ups with implied point totals and spreads:

Games to Target 🎯

Obvious Game Stack

New York Giants @ Dallas Cowboys (-7) | 52 O/U

NYG: 22.5 implied points | DAL: 29.5 implied points

Notable DFS Relevant Injuries: RB Ezekiel Elliots (knee) - Questionable, WR Amari Cooper (hamstring) - Questionable, WR Sterling Shepard (hamstring) - Questionable, WR Darius Slayton (hamstring) - Questionable

Score Prediction: NYG - 24, DAL - 33

Game Notes: There are plenty of notable injuries to watch out for here, but my guess is Zeke and Cooper will suit up, though I am not so confident we’ll be seeing Shepard and Slayton play on Sunday. Regardless, this domed match-up carries the highest total on the slate. In terms of tempo, the Giants rank 14th in situation-neutral tempo, but they’re the 6th fastest-paced team when trailing by 7+ (as they may for much of this game). NYG has also run more no-huddle plays than any other NFL offense. The Cowboys are the 7th fastest situation-neutral team and, if the Giants keep things close, Dallas ranks 2nd when the score is +/- 6 points. Barring a complete blowout, we should expect a high volume of total plays in this game.

Contrarian Game Stack

Philadelphia Eagles @ Carolina Panthers (-3) | 45 O/U

PHI: 21.0 implied points | CAR: 24.0 implied points

Notable DFS Relevant Injuries: RB Christian McCaffrey (hamstring) - Questionable

Score Prediction: PHI - 24, CAR - 28

Game Notes: The Panthers are not an overly aggressively paced offense (25th situation-neutral, 18th +/- 6 points) but the hope here is that the uptempo speed of the Eagles (3rd situation-neutral, 3rd +/- 6 points) will boost the overall play count in this game -- similar to how an uptempo NBA team boosts the number of possessions for a slower-paced opposing team as well. The Eagles also run no-huddle plays at the 5th highest rate and Eagles games this season have seen, on average, the 9th highest number of plays.

Quarterbacks to Consider

Potential quarterback targets at high/mid/low price points.

Kyler Murray, ARI | DK: $8k, FD: $8.5k | vs. SF

Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, Matthew Stafford, Russell Wilson -- a list of all upper-echelon QBs on top offenses who are not available on this Sunday’s main slate due to playing in primetime games. No disrespect to Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers, or the other higher-end QBs on the slate, but none can do exactly what Murray does. Murray has ranked 2nd in QBR this season behind only Patrick Mahomes. He’s completing 76.1% of his passes for 318.3 YPG while also providing his patented dual-threat upside (109 yards rushing and three rushing TDs through four games). The 49ers have allowed the 7th most FPPG to opposing QBs and have struggled to create pressure. Murray should thrive in this game and is worth spending up for in DFS tournaments.

Dak Prescott, DAL | DK: $6.9k, FD: $8.1k | vs. NYG

The last time Dak played against the Giants was nearly a year ago to the day back in week five of 2020. That was also the game in which Dak suffered his devastating, season-ending ankle injury. Now, ya can’t really stop things like that from happening in football… but you could maybe attach a slight #RevengeNarrative angle onto this game for Dak. Even without forcing any narratives here, Dak is in a strong spot to succeed in one of the best game environments on the slate (see “Games to Target” above). QBs are completing 75% of passes against this Giants defense which ranks 24th in pass DVOA.

Trey Lance, SF | DK: $5.7k, FD: $6.9k | @ ARI

Nothing is official yet, but all signs are pointing towards Jimmy Garoppolo (calf) being out for this game, giving way to Trey Lance’s first official NFL start. Once Garoppolo was shut down at halftime last week, Lance came in and essentially racked up 20 fantasy points in two quarters worth of work. Will he be the most efficient passer right away? No. But Lance has the highly coveted skill of being able to produce with his rushing ability. He’ll also have the advantage of Kyle Shanahan having an entire week to devise a game plan specifically for Lance and his skillset. The game environment should be a great one as well as the 49ers offense should be forced to stay aggressive for all four quarters with an elite Cardinals offense waiting on the other side.

Running Backs to Consider

Potential running back targets at high/mid/low price points.

Derrick Henry, TEN | DK: $9k, FD: $10.4k | @ JAX

Dread it, run from it, Derrick Henry chalk still arrives. There is nothing that outweighs volume in DFS, and Henry has the most locked-in workload in the league. He’s averaging an absurd 28.3 rushes/gm to go along with 3.8 targets/gm. It’s easier to pass on Jacksonville (32nd in pass DVOA) than it is to run on them (14th in rush DVOA) but if Henry is going to push for 30 touches once again, even on Jacksonville’s best day, they’re going to have issues slowing Henry down. As most are aware, there are some distractions going on in that Jags locker room as well.

Ezekiel Elliot, DAL | DK: $7k, FD: $8k | vs. NYG

Somewhat surprisingly, the Cowboys are running the ball on 47% of plays, the 5th highest rushing rate in the NFL. This has led to Dallas averaging 165.8 rushing YPG, the 2nd most in the NFL. Their O-Line rates out as the #1 run-blocking offensive line and they’re matched up against a bottom five ranked Giants defensive line. Sure, Tony Pollard will handle his 10-ish touches, but that hasn’t stopped Dallas from giving Zeke 20 touches in back-to-back weeks either. Being an RB playing on a team that is favored at home by a touchdown is always a good indicator for upcoming fantasy success as well.

Chase Edmonds, ARI | DK: $5.9k, FD: $6.2k | vs. SF

Edmonds is more enticing on a full PPR site like DraftKings, but he also isn’t overly expensive on FanDuel either, so I wouldn’t completely rule him out there. Edmonds has seen some dynamic utilization in the Cardinals offense and his 17.1% TGT% is incredibly strong for a running back. Edmonds’ 5.9 YPC also ranks 3rd among all NFL RBs. He has yet to score a touchdown in either the running or passing game, and James Conner being the preferred goal-line back doesn’t really help Edmonds’ TD potential. He’s also questionable for this game with a shoulder injury, so keep an eye out for news on that. If he’s cleared to play, he’s an appealing GPP target and surely the positive touchdown regression will hit at some point.

Leonard Fournette, TB | DK: $5.2k, FD: $6.4k | vs. MIA

Fournette is setting up to be a popular target this week and I have no real problems against that. Ronald Jones II continues to see very little work (17% snap% last week) while Fournette played on 82% of snaps in week four, rushing the ball 20 times and being targeted five times. If pass-catching specialist Gio Bernard (knee) misses another week, Fournette is likely in line for a similar three-down workload against Miami. The Dolphins have given up the 3rd most FPPG to RBs and the Bucs check-in as 10 point home favorites.

Samaje Perine, CIN | DK: $4k, FD: $5.6k | vs. GB

It would be a surprise to see Joe Mixon (ankle) suit up on Sunday, which would mean Perine is in line for a high-volume workload at rock bottom DFS salaries. The Packers rank 27th in rush DVOA this season and the Bengals check-in as only three-point underdogs, so it isn’t as if Vegas is expecting them to get blown out in this game. If we’re expecting Perine to see 15+ carries and perhaps a couple of targets as well, he makes for a strong FP/$ target this week.

Wide Receivers to Consider

Potential wide receiver targets at high/mid/low price points.

DJ Moore, CAR | DK: $7.5k, FD: $7.9k | vs. PHI

I don’t believe there is any debating or guesswork to be made about it anymore.. DJ Moore’s volume is locking him in as an elite option basically every week. He’s seeing an average of 10.8 targets/gm from Sam Darnold, equating to a superstar level 33.1% TGT%. The Eagles secondary has been limiting WR production (7th fewest FPPG allowed) but Moore may be considered match-up proof at this point.

Deebo Samuel, SF | DK: $7.1k, FD: $7.7k | @ ARI

This has a hint of “point chasing” to it, but Samuel is also the NFL’s receiving leader through four games so it’s not crazy to keep expectations high here. Samuel has seen double-digit targets in 2-of-4 games, equaling a 32.3% TGT%, and he connected on two touchdown receptions from incumbent starting QB Trey Lance in the second half last week. The Cardinals secondary is also giving up the 8th most FPPG to WRs and, as long as Lance steps up, this NFC West showdown has some strong shootout potential.

CeeDee Lamb, DAL | DK: $6.2k, FD: $6.9k | vs. NYG

Lamb is coming off of a couple of down weeks as the Cowboys run game has taken center stage. I’ve highlighted both Zeke and Dak in this newsletter, so I’m somewhat banking on both facets of the offense to have a great week against the Giants. Lamb has been running more routes (70%) on the perimeter this season and the Giants have allowed the 8th most FPPG to perimeter WRs. Lamb’s stock goes through the roof if Amari Cooper (hamstring) is forced to sit, but he’s a fine looking play regardless of Cooper’s status.

Jakobi Meyers, NE | DK: $5.6k, FD: $5.9k | @ HOU

New England is passing it at the 3rd highest rate in the NFL which has helped lead to Meyers earning a whopping 26 targets over the last two weeks. Without RB James White around to move the chains with screens and short dump-offs, it would seem that Meyers is now taking on that role (8.5 yard aDOT), on top of the one he already had as the Patriots WR1. Meyers is still hunting for the first career touchdown of his young NFL career, but that may finally come into fruition against the lowly Texans defense.

Laviska Shenault Jr., JAX | DK: $4.8k, FD: $5.8k | vs. TEN

DJ Chark joins Travis Etienne as another pass-catching weapon that the Jaguars were looking to rely heavily upon this season. Shenault is one of the last remaining trustworthy options that rookie QB Trevor Lawrence has at his disposal. A 10+ target day honestly would not surprise me, especially against a Titans defense that has been atrocious versus WRs, allowing the 2nd most FPPG to the position. The main knock on Viska was his low aDOT, as most of his targets, this season has come close to the line of scrimmage. However, after Chark went down last week, Shenault was the recipient of deeper looks down the field and even hauled in a 52-yard bomb in contested coverage.

Curtis Samuel, WAS | DK: $3k, FD: $5.2k | vs. NO

Samuel is more of a DK target where he checks in at the stone minimum $3k. In his first week off of the IR, Samuel handled a cautious workload and played only 37% of snaps where he caught 4-of-4 targets. Outside of Terry McLaurin, Washington is desperate for receiving options as TE Logan Thomas on IR and rookie WR Dyami Brown are both banged up. Unfortunately, Samuel’s status is up in the air for week five as well. He hasn’t been practicing and there is some worry that he may have re-aggravated the groin injury that had him on the IR in the first place. If he is able to get a full practice on Friday, it’d be an extremely encouraging sign. As long as he’s active and on the field a decent amount, it won’t be hard for him to pay off that $3,000 DK salary.

Tight Ends to Consider

Tight end targets at high/mid/low price points.

Noah Fant, DEN | DK: $4.9k, FD: $5.9k | @ PIT

Tight end is ugly this week, but that is not much different than most weeks. Even the ever-steady Travis Kelce had a crumby performance in week four. Fant is one of the few TEs who has earned a 20+% target share (20.8%, to be exact) and his only poor outing of the season came against the Jets, in which Denver hardly had to pass the ball en route to a 26-0 win. I may personally look to completely punt the TE position this week, particularly in cash, but if spending up on someone not named Darren Waller, Fant would probably be one of my first targets.

Maxx Williams, ARI | DK: $3.4k, FD: $5.2k | vs. SF

Williams has been targeted 15 times in the last three games and has come down with 100% of those targets. A 100% catch rate is clearly unsustainable, but he’s giving Kyler Murray and head coach Kliff Kingsbury every reason to keep him involved as a receiver. The fact that he is producing 7.4 yards after the catch is a major incentive to keep looking his way as well.

Ricky Seals-Jones, WAS | DK: $2.5k, FD: $4.9k | vs. NO

RSJ may be the tight end I look to just completely punt in DraftKings cash games so I can load up on superstars elsewhere. After Logan Thomas (now on IR) got hurt after recording five snaps last week, Seals-Jones came in and basically never left the field on offense (93% snap %) and was targeted four times. As I mentioned above, Washington is ultra desperate for receiving depth this week so Seals-Jones should run plenty of routes while playing nearly 100% of snaps once again. Five catches for 50 yards would lead to 4x value on DK -- I’d take that 10-out-of-10 times.

Defenses to Consider

D/ST is a very volatile “position” and shouldn’t take up too much time in your DFS research. However, here are two D/STs I’m on board with this week.

Safer but more expensive option:

Denver Broncos | DK: $4.2k, FD: $4.4k | @ PIT

This game looks like a complete slogfest with only a 39.5 point total and both teams likely struggling to score more than 20 points. Big Ben is looking as immobile as ever and that Pittsburgh O-Line is not doing him or the Steelers run game any favors. This is a situation where a Denver defense, which blitzes 34% of the time and has a top 10 D-Line, will be facing off against arguably the worst O-Line in the NFL.

Riskier but more affordable option:

Houston Texans | DK: $2.3k, FD: $3.2k | vs. NE

Perhaps this is too risky of a punt but at the very least, Houston is at home playing against a rookie QB in a game with a sub-40 point total. Opposing D/STs against the Patriots have averaged 9.3 FPPG this season. New England’s high pass rate opens up more opportunities for sacks, interceptions, and maybe… just maybe, a defensive touchdown. If anything, three sacks, a pick, and <24 points allowed seems fairly doable for this Texans defense.

Touchdown Call 🏈

Laviska Shenault Jr., JAX | DK: $4.8k, FD: $5.8k | vs. TEN

Weekly NFL Freeroll + LineStar Avatar

We’ll be hosting a weekly NFL freeroll on DraftKings, so remember to join!

DM us on Twitter to claim your prize!

Here is a link for this week’s LineStar freeroll!

• 1st place: $10 via PayPal

• 2nd-3rd place: Your choice of one-month LineStar Premium subscription, t-shirt or mug

• BONUS - If you place 1st, 2nd or 3rd in the LineStar Freeroll and you are using the LineStar avatar below, you will receive 2x that prize!

Please Note - While you may enter the LineStar freeroll as often as you’d like, you can only win each prize 1 time.

Once again, if you have any questions DM me on Twitter or hit me up in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck this week!

Let us know if you enjoyed the issue with a Yes or No below!