By: @Ryan_Humphries | LineStar Chat: @N1TRO

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I’ll start things off by simply quoting what our boy Greg Landry said in this week’s “NFL Takeaways” article:

Four football games into the season (for most teams) really does provide a strong dataset and a good feel for where teams are at. Now we just have to deal with the headache that COVID-19 complications bring into play. Our biggest concern for the time being is the match-up between Tennessee vs. Buffalo. The Titans already had to reschedule their week four game with Pittsburgh to later in the season due to multiple positive C-19 tests within the team and organization. It has now been discovered that Titans players broke protocols and gathered for a workout last week. Today (Thursday), another Titans player tested positive. The chances this game actually plays as scheduled at 1 pm ET on Sunday is looking more and more unlikely. For the purposes of this newsletter, I won’t be mentioning any Bills/Titans players. Another game we need to be wary due to of (due to C-19) is the Broncos/Pats game after Cam Newton (last week) & Stephon Gilmore (yesterday) tested positive. Fortunately, as of Thursday, no additional Patriots player has tested positive and they’re still looking to play on Sunday.

Now let’s get into some actual football talk! We’ll have a dozen games within our sights for this week’s main slate (pending PPDs). Nine of those games currently have a spread and game total. Seven of *those* games currently have a spread with one team favored by a touchdown or more… so, we could have quite a few blowouts brewing. For some of these match-ups, be sure to factor in predictive gamescript into your DFS decision making.

Games to Target

Carolina Panthers @ Atlanta Falcons (-1) | 54.5 O/U

CAR: 26.8 implied points | ATL: 27.8 implied points

CAR: 26th in offensive tempo | ATL: 2nd in offensive tempo

Unless you’re a Panthers or Falcons fan, this is definitely the kind of game only a DFS/fantasy football player could love. Both teams in this game possess bottom ten defenses in terms of DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average). Atlanta (26.5 PPG, ranks 15th) and Carolina (24.8 PPG, ranks 19th) have pretty ‘meh’ offenses, but they do have plenty of fantasy-relevant players who will obviously get a potential boost from the soft defensive match-ups. This is also a significant pace-up spot for the Panthers so expect them to see an extra possession or two, especially if this game stays close, as predicted. The availability of Atlanta’s top two wide receivers (Julio & Ridley - both questionable) could also end up opening some significant value in the ATL passing game. I see at least one or two players from this game making my cash lineup and plenty of others will find their way into my GPP entries. (Also, DOMED MATCH-UP BONUS APPEAL!)

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Houston Texans (-6) | 54 O/U

JAX: 24.0 implied points | HOU: 30.0 implied points

JAX: 12th in offensive tempo | HOU: 7th in offensive tempo

The major question mark for this one is how will the Bill O’Brien firing affect this Houston team, particularly the offense? After years of watching BOB waste the talent of a guy like Deshaun Watson, I don’t think we should expect much, if any, negative regression. This is another game which features two underwhelming defenses -- JAX ranks 32nd in DVOA, HOU ranks 27th. Fantasy-viable players reside on both offenses here. I believe there are a couple solid cash plays in this game along with a ton of additional guys with significant GPP appeal. (Pssst, hey... this also has DOMED MATCH-UP APPEAL!)

Quarterbacks to Consider

Potential quarterback targets at high/mid/low price points.

Kyler Murray | DK: $7.2k, FD: $8.3k | @ NYJ | GPP Preferred

The Jets haven’t given up a ton of fantasy points to QBs (19.1 DKFPPG) but let’s look at the QBs they have faced: Brett Rypien, Phillip Rivers, Jimmy Garoppolo/Nick Mullens, Josh Allen. Not exactly a murderer’s row. Josh Allen found plenty of success against them in week one (312 ys passing on 71.7% comp + 2 TDs, 57 rush yds + one TD) and prior to getting injured and sitting out the second half, Garoppolo had completed 14-of-16 passes (87.5%) for 131 yards and two TDs. Kyler Murray should carry a strong floor with great upside considering his rushing ability (66.3 rushing YPG, 4 TDs) and I’d expect him to connect with WR DeAndre Hopkins quite a bit as well. The only thing keeping Murray out of cash consideration for me is the blowout potential which the Joe Flacco-led Jets will provide.

Teddy Bridgewater | DK: $5.9k, FD: $7.1k | @ ATL | Cash & GPP

Anyone who reads these NFL newsletters knows this is the salary range I like to focus on when searching for my cash game QB and Bridgewater should not be a surprise selection. We can expect him to be very chalky against this depleted and outright bad Atlanta defense, but really I think we get about 22-26 fantasy points out of Teddy. That’s perfectly fine for cash games, but I wouldn’t blame you for targeting lower-owned QBs with more upside in GPPs (or going underweight on Bridgewater if you don’t want to fade him entirely).

Kyle Allen | DK: $4.1k, FD: $6k | vs. LAR | GPP Preferred

With the somewhat surprising announcement that Dwayne Haskins will be benched in favor of Kyle Allen, we have an extremely cheap starting QB on our hands -- especially on DraftKings where Allen is priced more closely to a WR3 or backup RB than a starting QB. So, he is more of a play on DK as opposed to FD -- still viable on both sites however, especially for GPPs. In 12 starts last year for the Panthers, Allen completed 62% of his passes, averaged 252.3 yards per game along with 17 TDs versus 15 picks. The Rams pass defense is decent, but not elite, and I’d be surprised if Allen doesn’t at least return 3x value (on DK) with potential for much more. Assuming Allen makes it out of this week unscathed and doesn’t play poorly enough to get benched mid-game, he’ll continue on as the Football Team starting QB. Allen will likely be priced around $5,500 on DK & closer to $7k on FanDuel next week against the Giants.

Running Backs to Consider

Potential running back targets at high/mid/low price points.

Clyde Edwards-Helaire | $6.8k, FD: $7.9k | vs. LV | Cash & GPP

CEH is a lock-and-load play this week going against the Raiders who have allowed the most FPPG to opposing RBs (38.8 DKFPPG / 34.2 FDFPPG). The Chiefs rookie RB now has a month’s worth of experience in the NFL and getting used to the speed of things. While his numbers aren’t off-the-charts impressive, he has looked very good while playing against some pretty difficult defenses. He hasn’t scored a touchdown since week one against Houston. I’d expect that to change this week. CEH is 8th among NFL RBs in offensive snap rate (67.5%) and obviously plays on an offense that is capable of moving the ball at will. With potential for 20+ touches, the floor + ceiling combo is looking promising for CEH this week.

Mike Davis | $6.4k, FD: $6.8k | @ ATL | Cash & GPP

Is Davis going to be chalky? Certainly. But I didn’t want to NOT mention him just in case this newsletter is one of the only pieces of info people read for their NFL DFS prep. Since taking over for the injured CMC, Davis has touched the football 21 times in each of the last two weeks as the full-time starter (29 rush att., 13 receptions) while playing 71% and 76% of snaps. Atlanta’s defense has only allowed 72 YPG on the ground to opposing RBs this season but that can be partially blamed on the fact that everyone can just pass it against them with extreme success. As a result, RBs are averaging a whopping 8.5 receptions and 64.3 receiving yards against the Falcons. In addition to his steady work on the ground, Davis is seeing high-end WR2 target numbers (23 targets last three weeks) so you can all but guarantee he’ll be active through the air.

Kareem Hunt | DK: $6.5k, FD: $7k | vs. IND | GPP Preferred

Hunt may be my favorite running back to target in GPPs this Sunday. Hunt is a lead workhorse RB on nearly any other NFL team but he obviously is going to split work with a talented back like Nick Chubb. Even with splitting work, Hunt has been the RB7 in half-PPR scoring this year, which is pretty remarkable. You can credit some of that on the fact that Cleveland possesses one of the top rated offensive lines in the league (1st in Adjusted Line Yards, 1st in Second Level Yards, 5th in Open Field Yards). The only hesitation people should have with Hunt this week is the fact that the Colts have fielded a tremendous defense this year, which ranks 1st in overall defense DVOA. However, the lead backs in two of their four games have been against Frank Gore and David Montgomery so take that into consideration. Still, it is a difficult match-up and Hunt probably has as much bust potential as he does upside.

Le’Veon Bell | DK: $5.1k, FD: $6k | vs. ARI | GPP Preferred

Plenty of obvious risk here but Bell has reportedly ‘looked good’ in his return to practice this week and is set to immediately take back the lead RB workload. The Cardinals have allowed the 9th most FPPG to RBs this season, including the 5th most receiving yards. With Flacco at QB, Bell could see quite a few dump off passes when he is on the field. Still, this is a dude coming off of IR on an Adam Gase-led team so he’ll be more of a GPP option. However, I do expect pretty low ownership, even at these discounted prices.

Antonio Gibson | DK: $5k, FD: $5.8k | vs. LAR | GPP Preferred

Ron Rivera and this Washington Football Team has to start realizing that Gibson is their most talented threat in the backfield, right? His snap counts have been all over the place, starting week one with a 26% snap rate followed by 65%, 40%, and 44% most recently. Aside from Terry McLaurin, he’s the only guy who is really making plays consistently on offense. Here’s to hoping Washington comes to its senses and begins to give Gibson more work. It is no secret that Kyle Allen (now starting at QB for Washington, in case you missed it) played a major role in Christian McCaffrey’s record setting 2019 season when he saw 142 targets and brought in 116 catches AS A RUNNING BACK.

Wide Receivers to Consider

Potential wide receiver targets at high/mid/low price points.

DeAndre Hopkins | DK: $7.9k, FD: $8.7k | @ NYJ | GPP Preferred

Like most weeks, I think it’s safer to target high volume RBs who tend to be more expensive, so I rarely pay up for a high-dollar receiver like Hopkins in cash games. But after a relatively quiet week against the Panthers when Hopkins caught 7-of-9 targets for only 41 yards, I believe he bounces back in a big way here. Hopkins’ massive 33.8% target share ranks second in the league and he should see 10+ targets this week yet again. On paper, the match-up with the Jets may not seem like a good one as they have allowed the 11th fewest DK FPPG to opposing WRs. However, in the last three weeks they’ve faced the 49ers, Colts, and Broncos -- teams who haven’t exactly dominated with their WRs much, if at all, this season. In week one, the Jets faced the Bills and gave up 247 yards to WRs along with 53.7 DKFP. Fire Hopkins up in tournaments.

Will Fuller V | DK: $6.6k, FD: $6.6k | vs. JAX | GPP Preferred

When Fuller is healthy, he is a dude who can produce enormous fantasy numbers. With the aforementioned Hopkins shipped off to Arizona, Fuller has commanded a strong 24.7% target share as well as 34.3% of the Texans targeted air yards. The Jaguars have only given up the 8th fewest FPPG to WRs but, again, let’s look at who they have played: Bengals, Dolphins, Titans, and Colts. However, Jacksonville does still rank dead last in pass defense DVOA. Their 8.3 yards allowed per pass is the 3rd highest mark in the NFL and they are also allowing a league-high 77% completion percentage. Fuller could have himself a day here if he continues to see solid volume.

CeeDee Lamb | DK: $6k, FD: $5.9k | vs. NYG | Cash & GPP

Lamb has caught at least five passes for 59+ yards in all four games this season. In this high octane Cowboys offense, Lamb saw the positive touchdown regression come his way as he found the endzone on two separate occasions. Due to the ineptitude of the Dallas defense, Dak Prescott has been forced into throwing it 50.3 times a game. Considering the Giants have been the worst offense in the NFL this year on a PPG basis (11.8), we should see more of a balanced run/pass attack. Still, Lamb should possess a solid floor alongside a strong ceiling. I’m sure the prideful Jerry Jones will tell his team not to let take their foot off the gas no matter what kind of lead they build up. They’re in desperate need of a ‘statement game’.

Robby Anderson | DK: $5.9k, FD: $6.2k | @ ATL | Cash & GPP

A case could be made that Anderson has taken over as the WR1 in Carolina. He does possess a team-leading 25.3% target share compared to DJ Moore’s 22.5%. In terms of team air yards, Anderson’s 31.5% is still a decent margin behind Moore at 43.5%. Really I think this is more of a WR1a + WR1b situation, but Anderson has obviously done more with his opportunities this season. I’ve already mentioned how bad the Atlanta defense, particularly its secondary, is (as if you weren’t aware) so look for Anderson to be a solid DFS option once again. DJ Moore (DK: $6k, FD: $6.6k) should be viewed as a strong leverage option, though perhaps more suitable for GPPs. He’s going to break out of the slump probably sooner rather than later.

Darius Slayton | DK: $4.8k, FD: $5.8k | @ DAL | Cash & GPP

Giants QB Daniel Jones has been bad this season, there is no denying that. The Giants haven’t created a passing touchdown since week one. That’s a big ‘yikes.’ But the Dallas secondary has been one of the bigger embarrassments of the league and allow the third most FPPG to WRs -- second most to perimeter WRs where Slayton aligns 87% of the time. Without guys like Saquon Barkley and Sterling Shepard available to soak up targets, Slayton should be expected to be the first look on most passing plays. The Giants are nearly 10 point underdogs so we should see a positive gamescript develop for Slayton as well.

Tim Patrick | DK: $4.4k, FD: $5.2k | @ NE | GPP Preferred

Under normal circumstances, Patrick would probably be the guy who Patriots lockdown cornerback Stephon Gilmore would focus on and possibly shadow. With Gilmore’s positive C-19 test, he should not be expected to play this week. It’s a major hit to a Patriots defense that ranks as the 6th worst in pass defense DVOA. After an impressive Thursday Night Football performance last week where he caught 6-of-7 targets for 113 yards and a score, Patrick is emerging as Denver’s replacement for Courtland Sutton. He’ll be a worthy flier in tournaments.

Damiere Byrd | DK: $3k, FD: $4.6k | vs. DEN | GPP Preferred

Byrd was mentioned in this article last week prior to that NE/KC game getting rescheduled to Monday night. He’s still at minimum salary on DK and $100 more than the minimum on FD. Against the Chiefs, Byrd hauled in 5-of-10 targets for 80 yards. Byrd possesses a solid 20% target share in this offense. He will take on a Broncos secondary which allows the 4th most FPPG to perimeter receivers where he aligns for 85% of his routes.

Tight Ends to Consider

Tight end targets at high/mid/low price points.

Evan Engram | DK: $4.6k, FD: $5.5k | @ DAL | Cash & GPP

The tight end position has been a wasteland this season and it makes paying up at the position much more enticing than usual. However, if you’re not spending up on someone like George Kittle or Travis Kelce, this match-up for Evan Engram should provide plenty of opportunity. Dallas has given up the 7th most FPPG to TEs and the target tree for the Giants is pretty damn thin. Engram has seen at least seven targets in 3-of-4 games this season and could have his breakout game come this Sunday.

Eric Ebron | DK: $4k, FD: $5.1k | vs. PHI | Cash & GPP

Ebron has played 71.8% of snaps. The last time we saw Pittsburgh in week three, Ebron was targeted seven times and caught five of those for 52 yards and a touchdown. The Eagles just got torched by George Kittle (15 rec, 183 yds, 1 TD) and have allowed big games to guys like Tyler Higbee and Logan Thomas as well. Ebron obviously isn’t going to put up Kittle-like numbers, but a 6/55/1 sort of stat line is very attainable.

Ian Thomas | DK: $3.4k, FD: $4.7k | @ ATL | GPP Preferred

We all saw what Green Bay’s tight end, Robert Tonyan, did to Atlanta on Monday night, right? Thomas has only caught 5-of-9 targets *this season* with a touchdown, so volume hasn’t been his strong suit. Still, he’ll be a viable guy to punt at the position in GPPs.

Defenses to Consider

D/ST is a very volatile “position” and shouldn’t take up too much time in your DFS research. However, here are two D/STs I’m on board with this week.

Safer but more expensive option:

Pittsburgh Steelers | DK: $3.8k, FD: $4.4k | vs. PHI

One of the best defensive units in football will get a crack at a sporadic Eagles team with a suspect O-Line.

Riskier but more affordable option:

Dallas Cowboys | DK: $3.1k, FD: $3.5k | vs. NYJ

Surely the Cowboys defense doesn’t get steamrolled by the New York Giants… right?

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