By: @Ryan_Humphries | LineStar Chat: @N1TRO

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The NFL season continues to metaphorically walk on egg shells as we enter week six. The latest ride on the COVID carousel involves the Atlanta Falcons who reportedly had four positive tests this morning (per Adam Schefter). As of now, Atlanta has halted team activities and shut down its facilities, thus putting their game on Sunday against the Minnesota Vikings in jeopardy of being postponed/rescheduled, at least to some extent. That is one of the more enticing games from a fantasy perspective on this eleven game main slate. For now, I’m going to proceed as if that game plays as scheduled but, as always these days, keep your ears and eyes open for the latest NFL scheduling news.

Main slate match-ups with implied team totals and moneylines:

Games to Target

Detroit Lions (-3.5) @ Jacksonville Jaguars | 54.5 O/U

DET: 29.0 implied points | JAX: 25.5 implied points

DET: 8th in offensive tempo | JAX: 9th in offensive tempo

This may not seem like a game that could provide a ton of DFS goodness but it absolutely can. Both of these offenses move the ball at a top 10 pace, so extra plays/possessions (and thus, additional fantasy scoring opportunities) should be aplenty in this game. The Lions and Jaguars defenses also rate out as two of the three worst defenses in the NFL in terms of DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average) -- Lions are 29th, Jags are 32nd. Opposing offenses have not had much trouble scoring against these defenses. The Lions are allowing 31.8 PPG (4th most) while the Jaguars are not far behind at 29.4 PPG allowed (9th most). There are a few notable injuries to monitor within the Jaguars receiving corps, but for the most part the majority of fantasy-relevant guys are healthy for this game. Detroit is coming in fresh off of their bye week as 3.5 point road favorites. This match-up doesn’t feature the most polished or sexiest offenses, and it may get a little ugly at times, but ultimately there is a good shot this game turns into a close, high-scoring affair that we’ll want exposure to.

Green Bay Packers (-1) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 55 O/U

GB: 28.0 implied points | TB: 27.0 implied points

GB: 32nd in offensive tempo | TB: 16th in offensive tempo

Fantasy aside, this match-up likely has the most general ‘football appeal’ out of all games this week for obvious reasons. Two legendary future HOF quarterbacks facing each other with realistic Super Bowl aspirations? What’s not to love? For DFS purposes, while neither offense moves the ball particularly fast (Green Bay ranking dead last in offensive tempo), the efficiency of each offense helps to counterbalance a slower pace. Green Bay ranks 1st in offensive efficiency while Tampa Bay checks in at 11th. The defensive edge absolutely has to fall toward the Bucs, who rank 2nd in the league in DVOA, while the Packers check in toward the bottom at 29th. Green Bay is trending toward being the healthier team coming out of their week five bye. Meanwhile, Tampa Bay has quite a few key players listed as ‘questionable’ for this week but they have had a couple of extra days off to rest and recoup following their frustrating loss to the Bears last Thursday. This is the closest spread on the slate, as it is essentially a pick ‘em. The current 55 point total is also tied with the Falcons/Vikings game for the highest on the slate, and it is rising on some books. Plenty of eyes will be on this one since the only other game competing with it in the 4 o’clock ET window will be the Dolphins vs. Jets.

Quarterbacks to Consider

Potential quarterback targets at high/mid/low price points.

Cam Newton | DK: $6.5k, FD: $8k | vs. DEN | GPP Preferred

All signs point toward Newton immediately returning this week as the Patriots starting QB after his stint on the reserve/COVID-19 list. He should fall immediately within DFS consideration, as he has always had one of the highest fantasy ceilings among QBs, when he is healthy. His 11.7 rush attempts per game lead all QBs and he has turned that into 49.7 rushing YPG and four TDs in three games. The Denver defense is not exactly one we need to shy away from when it comes to playing QBs against them. They have allowed the 9th most FPPG to opposing QBs and many may recall Sam Darnold ripping off a huge 46 yards touchdown run against them. I’m not sure I’d immediately trust Newton as my cash game QB, especially if the Pats get up big in this game, but the rushing upside alone makes him an appealing tournament play.

Gardner Minshew II | DK: $6.4k, FD: $7.2k | vs. DET | Cash & GPP

Minshew will have quite a bit of appeal this Sunday given these affordable mid-range price tags. He has exceeded 20 DKFP in 4-of-5 games while Jacksonville has somewhat surprisingly led the league in pass play percentage (66.56%). I hit on how much I’m interested in this game in general above in the “Games to Target” section, and Minshew is definitely a key player I’m looking to gain some exposure to. Detroit has allowed 7.5 yards per pass attempts (9th most) and Minshew has attempted an average of 44 pass attempts in the Jags last four games. He also typically can get you around 20 yards rushing with a chance at a rushing score, which is always a nice bonus.

Kirk Cousins | DK: $6.1k, FD: $7.1k | vs. ATL | Cash & GPP

This amounts to a 100% ‘flowchart play’ at this point, considering the Falcons defense isn’t stopping anyone. If you go back to week three and combine Mitch Trubisky’s DKFP total (12.62 FP) and Nick Foles’ FP total (18.22 FP) and view them as one quarterback, then the Falcons defense has allowed a QB1 (top 12) fantasy day to the opposing QB in every week thus far. Cousins isn’t exactly a dominant fantasy QB but the likely absence of Dalvin Cook (groin) in this game could give him a bit of a boost on top of the dream match-up. The Vikings have one of the better backup RBs in the league in Alexander Mattison, and would probably still lean on the run game quite a bit, but it’s hard not seeing a clear pathway to 20+ fantasy points from Cousins here with a wide open window to score more.

Running Backs to Consider

Potential running back targets at high/mid/low price points.

Derrick Henry | DK: $7.3k, FD: $9k | vs. HOU | Cash & GPP

I doubt I really need to sell anyone on Henry for this week but I’m starting off the RB section with him because he’ll likely be one of the first skill position players I’d look to plug into my cash game lineup this Sunday. The Texans are allowing the 6th most FPPG to RBs while giving up 4.7 YPA. The Titans have run the ball on exactly 50% of plays this season (5th highest percentage) and Henry is virtually locked into 20+ touches. There are a couple downsides that could hurt Henry’s fantasy outlook. The Titans are coming off of a short week after playing Buffalo in a rare Tuesday NFL game… but Henry did only need to play 52% of snaps as the Titans were in full control of that game for about the final three quarters. I’d also like to see Henry a bit more involved in the passing game, as he is only seeing 2.5 tgts/gm. But given his elite volume and multi-touchdown upside, he could be in line for a ceiling game this week.

Mike Davis | DK: $7k, FD: $7.5k | vs. CHI | GPP Preferred

The price is getting up there and the match-up isn’t the greatest, but Davis should still be a guy to target… but perhaps more so in GPPs this week. In Christian McCaffrey’s absence, Davis has been mirroring CMC-like fantasy production yet he has come with a DFS discount of $2k+ each week since taking over as the Panthers starter. The Bears have given up the 11th fewest FPPG to RBs but Davis is essentially being targeted as much as a high-volume WR2 (7.5 tgts/gm last four) while getting around 15 rushes per game and heavy redzone usage.

James Robinson | DK: $6.8k, FD: $6.5k | vs. DET | Cash & GPP

Detroit ranks second to last in rush defense DVOA and is allowing 5.2 YPA on the ground and 33.3 DKFP per game. Robinson is going to lose a few targets and maybe a couple carries to teammate Chris Thompson, but for the most part he dominates touches in this backfield. I wouldn’t mind rolling out Minshew and Robinson in the same lineup in hopes of grabbing all exposure to every Jacksonville touchdown in this game.

Myles Gaskin | DK: $5.4k, FD: $5.7k | vs. NYJ | Cash & GPP

Jordan Howard was a healthy scratch last week and Gaskin out-touched Matt Breida 21-10 while playing on 63% of snaps. It would certainly seem like this is Gaskin’s backfield to lose. Now a match-up with the Jets is on the horizon and a positive gamescript should follow for Gaskin, as Miami is 9.5 point favorites. The Jets have given up 31.5 DKFP to RBs and Gaskin has been quite active in the passing game, seeing at least four targets in every game this season. He appears to be a quality value DFS target in week six.

D’Andre Swift | DK: $4.5k, FD: $5.4k | @ JAX | GPP Only

Sooner or later, HC Matt Patricia has to realize that Swift is their most talented back on the roster, right? Maybe coming out of the bye week the 1-3 Lions will start to hand over the keys to the rookie instead of rolling with a three-headed committee that brings Adrian Peterson and Kerryon Johnson into the mix. It is worth noting that Peterson missed Thursday’s practice with an illness (non C-19 related). If he happens to sit out this week, I’d boost Swift’s chances of seeing a breakout game considerably.

Wide Receivers to Consider

Potential wide receiver targets at high/mid/low price points.

Adam Thielen | DK: $7.3k, FD: $7.4k | vs. ATL | Cash & GPP

Thielen leads all NFL receivers with a 33.2% target share and has seen 23 targets come his way in the last two weeks. We all know what a wasteland the Falcons secondary has been. They have given up the second-most FPPG to perimeter WRs, where Thielen runs 81% of his routes. Assuming Atlanta’s COVID-19 cases don’t cause this game to be postponed, Thielen should be firmly in play as a high-salary WR to target.

Kenny Golladay | DK: $6.2k, FD: $7.2k | @ JAX | Cash & GPP

Golladay has only played in two games this season but has found the endzone in both contests while catching 10-of-15 targets for a combined 119 yards. The TDs have pretty much bailed out what would otherwise be two ‘meh’ stat lines, but the big Golladay games are coming. Jacksonville allows a massive 75.8% completion rate while ranking dead last in pass defense DVOA. We could see Golladay show off that big play ability this Sunday.

Jamison Crowder | DK: $6.1k, FD: $6.6k | @ MIA | Cash & GPP

There is a very, very short list of viable playmakers on this Jets offense, so Crowder should continue to get featured, especially if the rumors of him being on the trading block are true. He has surpassed 100+ yards receiving in all three games in which he has been healthy and he showed last week that he can put up a strong stat line (8/116/1) with the ghost of Joe Flacco at quarterback. Crowder’s monstrous 31.3% TGT% trails only the aforementioned Adam Thielen.

AJ Brown | DK: $5.6k, FD: $6.5k | vs. HOU | GPP Preferred

You can probably move Brown into cash consideration as long as he practices on Friday. He sat out practice Thursday but that could simply be the Titans managing his physical workload following a Tuesday game which was his first game action since week one. With a depleted Titans receiving corps, Brown led the team in targets against the Bills (9) and caught seven of them for 82 yards and a score. He’s almost certainly too cheap if he carries a similar role against Houston.

Chase Claypool | DK: $5.2k, FD: $5.5k | vs. CLE | GPP Preferred

How much stock can we put into that wildly productive performance out of Claypool last week? It’s tough to say, and I certainly don’t want to be caught chasing points. But Claypool has a great chance of being the real deal. He’s a 6’4” receiver with a huge catch radius and can run a 4.4 40-yard dash. He is truly the sort of receiver Ben Roethlisberger has always wanted in Pittsburgh. I’m anxious to see what kind of volume he sees against a Browns team that has allowed the 3rd most FPPG to WRs. Obvious bump to Claypool if Diontae Johnson (back) gets ruled out. This is also a great spot for JuJu Smith-Schuster (DK: $6.6k, FD: $7.1k) in GPPs considering Cleveland has given up the most FPPG to slot WRs.

Jeff Smith | DK: $3k, FD: $4.9k | @ MIA | GPP Preferred

I’m only mentioning Smith because he is basically free and has seen 20 targets in the last two weeks while playing on 95% and 99% of snaps. Perhaps more of an option on DraftKings where PPR scoring would drastically help him out. He’s far from the worst guy you could punt at these prices and he opens up the world for you to spend up on elite options elsewhere.

Tight Ends to Consider

Tight end targets at high/mid/low price points.

Mark Andrews | DK: $6.5k, FD: $7.6k | GPP Preferred

With Travis Kelce, George Kittle, and Darren Waller off of the main slate this week, that makes Andrews a target for GPPs by default. His odds of finding the endzone are just about as good as any workhorse RB in the league and he holds a solid 21% target share in this Ravens offense. The Eagles are also a defense that can be beaten by a good TE. They have given up the 4th most FPPG to the position, headlined by George Kittle in week four (43.1 DKFP/32.6 FDFP) and Tyler Higbee in week two (28.4 DKFP/25.9 FDFP).

Jonnu Smith | DK: $5.2k, FD: $5.8k | Cash & GPP

Smith is likely going to be the highest owned tight end on the slate after scoring a pair of TDs on Tuesday night, but you can’t really argue against him. He’s not going to break the bank and Smith has been one of the more consistent options in the wasteland that is the tight end position. His 21% target share is identical to the aforementioned Andrews and both have found the endzone five times this season.

Irv Smith Jr. | DK: $2.5k, FD: $4.3k | GPP Preferred

Honestly, I don’t think I’d hate punting Smith in cash on DraftKings at this $2.5k salary. I’ll have to see how I feel on Sunday. Smith hasn’t been utilized very much this season but he has been on the field plenty (62% snap rate) and saw a season high five targets last week, catching four for 64 yards. Tight ends (and everyone else) have excelled against Atlanta and I’m not so sure that Kyle Rudolph will be Minnesota’s go-to receiving TE in this game. Irv Smith Jr. is much more of a match-up nightmare. Someday the Vikings are going to realize that and give him more opportunities.

Defenses to Consider

D/ST is a very volatile “position” and shouldn’t take up too much time in your DFS research. However, here are two D/STs I’m on board with this week.

Safer but more expensive option:

New England Patriots | DK: $4.1k, FD: $4.8k | vs. DEN

Drew Lock may be back at QB but, ehh… Pats D should still do well at home here.

Riskier but more affordable option:

Cincinnati Bengals | DK: $2.1k, FD: $3.3k | @ IND

The Colts aren’t some offensive powerhouse this season and this should be a low scoring pace-down game. If Bengals DST manages even five or six points, that’d be perfectly fine by me considering the extra salary rostering this defense would open up.

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Once again, if you have any questions DM me on Twitter @Ryan_Humphries or tag me in the LineStar NFL chat using @N1TRO. Good luck this week!

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