By: @Ryan_Humphries

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Welcome back for another loaded week of NFL action! With the arrival of bye weeks, we’ll see a slimmed-down main slate compared to what we’ve come accustomed to through the first five weeks. There will still be plenty of games to dig into and dissect with ten games on the docket. There is no major news to hit on so let’s keep it short and sweet with this intro and dive directly into this week’s games!

Main slate match-ups with implied point totals and spreads:

Games to Target 🎯

Obvious Game Stack

Kansas City Chiefs (-7) @ Washington Football Team | 55.5 O/U

KC: 31.3 Implied Points | WFT: 24.3 implied points

Score Prediction: KC - 38, WFT - 27

Game Notes: You likely don’t need much motivation to target players from this game. Both of these defenses have ranked among the worst in the league and in Kansas City’s case, they’re producing historically bad numbers. The Chiefs are allowing a whopping 7.1 yards per play through five games. For reference, the best offense in NFL history averaged 7.0 yards per play. Chiefs games are averaging 63.4 total points per game, which leads all other teams by a considerable margin. Washington pushes the pace with an uptempo offense and, in many situations, Kansas City plays at a top 10 pace themselves. There are quite a few key injuries to track here but, as of now, this is setting up as one of the top games to target on this slate.

Contrarian Game Stack

Los Angeles Rams (-9.5) @ New York Giants | 49.5 O/U

LAR: 29.0 implied points | NYG: 19.5 implied points

Score Prediction: LAR - 34, NYG - 21

Game Notes: This isn’t the spiciest of match-ups and the Giants are of course dealing with a massive amount of injuries to key players. However, I could easily imagine a scenario where the Rams come out and do their thing on offense, scoring 28+ with relative ease. Meanwhile, the Giants and their ragtag group of healthy bodies rack up some points in garbage time. Both teams in this game operate at a top 10 offensive pace and this match-up becomes much more enticing, possibly even competitive (???), if Daniel Jones is able to clear concussion protocol by Sunday.

Quarterbacks to Consider

Potential quarterback targets at high/mid/low price points.

Patrick Mahomes, KC | DK: $8.3k, FD: $9k | @ WAS

In their last four games, this Washington defense has allowed DKFP totals of 27.76 (Jameis Winston), 29.02 (Matt Ryan), 40.22 (Josh Allen), and 29.46 (Daniel Jones). Aside from Josh Allen, we’re not exactly talking about a bunch of current All-Pro talent mixed into that group. The Chiefs are in dire need of a turnaround to their 2-3 season and this is the perfect spot for Mahomes to go off. With the injury to RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire which will sideline him for multiple weeks, expect even more emphasis to be put on the passing attack.

Lamar Jackson, BAL | DK: $7.4k, FD: $8.2k | vs. LAC

With the Ravens playing on Monday night, Lamar Jackson’s insane comeback performance isn’t baked into his week six salaries. With no real consistent production coming out of Baltimore’s running backs these days, Jackson put the entire offense on his shoulders and ultimately accounted for 503 of the Ravens 523 offensive yards (442 yards passing, 62 yards rushing). The Chargers possess an above-average pass defense (11th in pass DVOA) but, in what may be a back-and-forth offensive shootout, I could imagine a fairly wide pathway to another Lamar Jackson ceiling game. Likely not anything close to his Monday Night Football performance, but possibly a 30ish FP kinda day, especially if the passing volume continues to trend upwards.

Taylor Heinicke, WFT | $5.8k, FD: $7.3k | vs. KC

There’s probably not much surprise in the cheap QB selection this week. The Chiefs will more than likely begin to right the ship on defense sooner rather than later, but for the time being it makes all the sense in the world to continue targeting players going against them. Opposing QBs are averaging a whopping 34.7 FPPG versus the Chiefs in their last four games. Given, they’ve faced a brutal QB gauntlet in that stretch consisting of Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts, Justin Herbert, and Lamar Jackson. Heinicke is obviously not on the same level as any of those guys but he has proven to be a serviceable fantasy option when given positive match-ups and he carries decent rushing capability as well.

Running Backs to Consider

Potential running back targets at high/mid/low price points.

Austin Ekeler, LAC | DK: $7.9k, FD: $8.4k | @ BAL

There’s no option to do the old plug and play with Derrick Henry this week. Meanwhile, several other top RBs continue to deal with injuries. If Christian McCaffrey (hamstring) is available this week, I think you have to at least give him some consideration in DraftKings GPPs at his suppressed $8,800 price tag. Otherwise, I’d be looking towards a guy like Ekeler this week when spending up. Six touchdowns in the last three weeks has quite a bit to do with his elite fantasy output. While TDs are not easily prognosticated, he likely has a decent shot at one or two TDs once again this week. Aside from week one, Ekeler has been targeted between five and ten times in every other game. He’ll run up against a Ravens defense on a short week which has allowed the second most receiving yards to RBs.

Jonathan Taylor, IND | DK: $6.6k, FD: $7.5k | vs. HOU

If the Colts didn’t go away from Taylor in the second half, they probably hang on to win that game against the Ravens on Monday night. Perhaps they’ll learn from their mistakes and feed their bellcow back in a game they should once again find themselves ahead in. Taylor leads all RBs on the slate with 24 red zone carries this season and will face a Texans defense which ranks 30th in rush DVOA. The fairly mediocre Colts O-Line should also benefit from facing a bottom five Texans D-Line.

Darrell Henderson Jr., LAR | DK: $6k, FD: $7.3k | @ NYG

It’s tough to look past Henderson this week and he’ll almost assuredly be among the highest owned players at the position. The match-up is excellent against a Giants team which is allowing the 7th most FPPG to RBs along with 4.7 YPC (5th most). When healthy, Henderson also possesses one of the highest shares of his team’s RB touch total (75.6%) and the game script is setting up very well as the Rams go on the road as 9.5 point favorites.

Darrel Williams, KC | DK: $4.9k, FD: $5.2k | @ WFT

Williams was already beginning to see his role increase and now with Clyde Edwards-Helaire dealing with a multi-week injury, he’ll be the top candidate to receive the bulk of RB touches out of the Chiefs backfield. Kansas City leads all teams on the slate with an implied total of 31 points and will head to Washington favored by a touchdown. While it’s more likely that Mahomes and the Chiefs steamroll the awful WFT secondary through the air, you’re not going to need a stellar performance out of Williams in order to see value.

Khalil Herbert, CHI | DK: $4.6k, FD: $5.5k | vs. GB

With David Montgomery riding the IR, Damien Williams emerged as the favorite to lead the Bears backfield for the time being. While Damien Williams did start in week five and handle 18 total touches, it was Herbert who edged him in snaps 34 to 31 and also received 18 touches himself. Williams’ status was already in question for week six due to some injuries and now he has landed on the COVID reserve list. It would be a stretch for him to suit up on Sunday, so Herbert will be looking at a full-featured role in this match-up with Green Bay, who ranks 29th in rush DVOA. Expect Herbert and the aforementioned Darrel Williams to land on many people’s radar this week. Both will make for appealing cash game plays.

Wide Receivers to Consider

Potential wide receiver targets at high/mid/low price points.

Cooper Kupp, LAR | DK: $7.9k, FD: $8.2k | @ NYG

After a pair of down weeks, some of the early season luster surrounding Kupp has worn off a bit. He is still seeing fantastic volume with double-digit targets in every game this season, which has led to a superstar level 33.1% TGT%. Kupp has gone scoreless in two straight games but that is a trend that is unlikely to continue given his absurdly high 38.5% red zone TGT%. The Giants rank 24th in fantasy points allowed to the WR position, though they have been surprisingly strong against slot receivers (Kupp 70% slot routes). I believe we can still look for Kupp to have a strong game more reminiscent of his first three weeks of the season.

Terry McLaurin, WFT | DK: $7.1k, FD: $7.4k | vs. KC

Washington is starved for able-bodied pass catchers so McLaurin should continue to see 10+ targets basically every week where the game script calls for a pass-heavy approach. That’s most likely going to be the case this week against a desperate Chiefs team in need of a bounce back win. McLaurin has earned an elite 30.4% TGT%, but unfortunately, he has only achieved a 59.2% catch rate on those targets. The low-end catch percentage doesn’t exactly fall on heavily McLaurin (zero drops this season) but he will need to make better use of his targets if he is to pay off these fairly lofty salaries. That more so comes down to the performance of Taylor Heinicke.

Courtland Sutton, DEN | DK: $6.2k, FD: $6.6k | vs. LV

If you want to go after a more affordable receiver who has seen solid volume combined with big-play potential, Sutton might be your guy. His 7.8 targets/gm comes out to a solid 23.8% TGT% and Sutton’s 16.5-yard aDOT is the highest in the league among all wide receivers who average at least six targets per game. Sutton’s 41.4% Air Yard market share also checks in as the 8th highest mark in the NFL. The Raiders have been fairly stingy against WRs this season (4th fewest FPPG allowed) but I believe it is fair to say that they have dealt with some off-the-field distractions this week which could lead to some lackluster play.

Brandin Cooks, HOU | DK: $5.8k, FD: $6.5k | @ IND

There is very little to like most weeks about this highly inefficient Houston offense outside of Brandin Cooks. Despite a dip in volume the last couple of weeks (12 total targets), Cooks has still accounted for a 33.6% TGT%, which ranks third among the entire NFL. Even though he’ll most certainly draw heavy defensive attention, and possibly some double coverage, Cooks has a knack for getting open and there’s a lot to like about the match-up as the Colts have allowed the 8th most FPPG to opposing WRs.

Michael Pittman Jr., IND | DK: $5.5k, FD: $5.8k | vs. HOU

Pittman’s 9.8 targets/gm over his last four are the most among any sub-$6k WR on both sites. The Colts have a great shot to push for 30 points against Houston and Pittman’s 6/89/1 stat line isn’t baked into his week six salaries due to playing on Monday night, after week six salaries were already released.

Mecole Hardman, KC | DK: $4.2k, FD: $5.5k | @ WFT

Hardman becomes a much more obvious play if Tyreek Hill (quadriceps) gets ruled out, but after a 12 target outing and 22% TGT% in week five, it may be worth keeping Hardman in mind regardless… at least as part of Mahomes double stacks. Washington has allowed the 5th most FPPG to opposing WRs so there is room for Hardman to succeed even if Tyreek suits up.

Tight Ends to Consider

Tight end targets at high/mid/low price points.

Mark Andrews, BAL | DK: $5.2k, FD: $6.3k | vs. LAC

A bit point chase-y? Perhaps a touch. But Andrews is yet another player who would have been priced up noticeably higher had his absolutely massive week five performance (11/147/2) been factored into his salaries for this week. Andrews’ target volume was creeping up even before his Monday Night Football boon and the Chargers are allowing an average of 6.0 receptions for 81.2 yards and nearly a touchdown per game to opposing TEs.

Dalton Schultz, DAL | DK: 4.9k, FD: $6.5k | @ NE

Schultz has received at least six targets from Dak Prescott in four-of-five games this season which has translated to a 19% TGT%. Given the inconsistent nature of the tight end position, that level of involvement is nothing to sneeze at. Schultz has proven to be a highly reliable target and his excellent 83.9% catch percentage should continue to lead towards quality looks. It’s a fairly tough match-up against a Patriots defense that has allowed the 5th fewest FPPG to TEs. However, the list of TE1s that they have faced hasn’t exactly featured any heavily involved pass catchers: Jordan Akins, Cameron Brate, Adam Trautman, Tyler Kroft, and Mike Gesicki.

Ricky Seals-Jones, WFT | DK: $3k, FD: $5k | vs. KC

With Logan Thomas out for the foreseeable future, RSJ was a value TE target from last week as well. While his five catches (on eight targets) for 41 yards wasn’t anything to bust out the champagne over, it’s certainly encouraging. Most importantly, he’s drawing looks in the red zone while playing essentially every offensive snap. Washington can use all the help they can get from the few healthy pass catchers they have available, so it feels like another strong spot to go after RSJ if you’re paying down at the position.

Defenses to Consider

D/ST is a very volatile “position” and shouldn’t take up too much time in your DFS research. However, here are two D/STs I’m on board with this week.

Safer but more expensive option:

Dallas Cowboys | DK: $3.2k, FD: $4.1k | @ NE

The Dallas D/ST is really not all that expensive, especially for a defense that has posted a floor of 7.0 FP this season. The Patriots have been allowing their rookie QB to pass a ton and, as long as Trevon Diggs is on the field, there is some significant turnover potential to be had here.

Riskier but more affordable option:

Detroit Lions | DK: $2.1k, FD: $3.7k | vs. CIN

Less appealing on FD but very viable as a D/ST punt on DK. Joe Burrow is the 4th most sacked QB in the league and Detroit has held their last three opponents to 20.6 PPG. Despite all the unfortunate losses, this team is playing hard. Anything in the vicinity of 5 to 7 FP and I’d be happy with this punt.

Touchdown Call 🏈

Darrell Henderson Jr., LAR | DK: $6k, FD: $7.3k | @ NYG

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