There is no shortage of value at the RB position this week but should we bite on the chalk or look elsewhere?

By: @Ryan_Humphries

Week 6 NFL PreSnap Podcast 🎙️

Catch Tyler Wiemann and Shannon Sommerville's run down on this Sunday's NFL DFS main slate!

Also, for anyone looking to roll out some NFL props this week, be sure to check out the info and videos at the end of this article on LineStar's new Prop Edge+ for NFL tool and how it can help you make some extra cash -- especially on sites like PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!

A free two-pick PrizePicks "Power Play" is posted at the end of this article as well!

Week 6 DFS Main Slate Rundown 📝

The first bye weeks of the season have arrived so we'll be left with a smaller, but still a loaded, 11-game Sunday main slate! Due to a slew of RB injuries, the masses will flock to many of the cheap, chalky RBs available on the slate, and it's tough to criticize that approach -- especially in cash games. We'll highlight some of those value RBs while also digging into some ways to "get different" at RB and other positions in GPPs this Sunday.

Main slate match-ups with implied point totals and spreads:

Weather Report

As a reminder, weather plays less of a factor in football than it does in other sports but it is still worth making note of any games that could see wet conditions, high winds, or (when we get into the winter months) frigid, snowy conditions.

The forecasts can always change so, as always, run a final weather check closer to kickoff!

MIN @ MIA (1:00 ET, 45.5 O/U): 15-ish mph winds.

NE @ CLE (1:00 ET, 43.5 O/U): 10+ mph winds.

NYJ @ GB (1:00 ET, 45.5 O/U): Cold temps in the mid-40s with winds around 15 mph.

BUF @ KC (4:25 ET, 54 O/U): 10+ mph winds.

Quarterbacks to Consider

Potential quarterback targets at high/mid/low price points.

Josh Allen, BUF | DK: $8.2k, FD: $9.2k | @ KC

What’s not to like about Allen this week? Sure, he is the most expensive QB on the slate, but the value at other positions makes him an exceptionally viable spend-up option. If any game has “shootout” written all over it, it would be this one. These two teams combined for 136 points (68 PPG) in two meetings last season and, in those games, Allen went off for 644 yards and 7 TDs through the air while tacking on 127 yards and another TD on the ground. No advanced stats or further convincing is needed here. Play Josh Allen if you’ve got the salary for him.

Kyler Murray, ARI | DK: $7.3k, FD: $8.3k | @ SEA

If you’re looking to pivot off of the Josh Allen chalk, Kyler Murray may be one guy to turn to as he currently checks in with a 7% pOwn% on DraftKings and 12% pOwn% on FanDuel. For DFS purposes, Murray has been solid throughout the season but we’re still waiting for him to pop off with one of those ceiling games. Perhaps this is the week. Seattle’s defense has allowed an offensive score on a league-high 51.9% of drives and they rank 31st in pass DVOA. Due to injuries to Cardinals RBs James Conner and Darrel Williams, Murray could be a bit more involved as a runner as well.

Geno Smith, SEA | DK: $5.7k, FD: $7.4k | vs. ARI

Geno’s last three games: 913 yards passing (304.3 YPG), 7:1 TD:INT ratio, and he has added 61 yards and an additional score on the ground. The Seahawks have emerged as one of the more surprisingly good offenses in the NFL and Geno Smith has been the driving force in their success. He’ll draw a plus match-up at home against a Cardinals defense that ranks 27th in pass DVOA and has allowed a score on 45.8% of offensive possessions (4th highest). Smith sets up as a good investment in lineups this week if you’re not looking to pay a premium at QB.

Running Backs to Consider

Potential running back targets at high/mid/low price points.

Saquon Barkley, NYG | DK: $7.7k, FD: $8.8k | vs. BAL

In a resurgent season, Barkley continues to see elite snaps and usage. His 84.6% snap% ranks second among NFL RBs, just barely behind Christian McCaffery (85% snap%). The Giants are +5.5 home underdogs in this match-up against the Ravens, but Barkley has proven to be “gamescript-proof” this season -- if the Giants are trailing, it could just mean more targets for Barkley; if they’re ahead on the scoreboard, more rush attempts. Baltimore continues to deal with injuries at every level of their defense and they come into week six ranking 26th in rush DVOA. There is a stable of value RBs on this slate that will eat up a huge chunk of ownership so going with a high-priced option like Barkley may make for a wise pivot in GPPs.

Joe Mixon, CIN | DK: $6.9k, FD: $7.8k | @ NO

This is essentially a GPP-only play since the “safer” RBs come with considerably lower DFS salaries than Mixon. I expect Mixon to go very low-owned on this slate with almost certain single-digit ownership. However, he ranks 3rd among NFL RBs with a 77.7% snap% and this could be a game script that plays in his favor. Tee Higgins could continue to play with a bum ankle and opposing secondaries are just choosing to double-cover Ja’Marr Chase seemingly almost every play. If things continue to play out that way, it could mean additional touches for Mixon, who already leads all RBs on this slate with 23.2 touches/gm. New Orleans is allowing 4.5 YPC this season which ranks them smack dab in the middle at 16th in the NFL. The Bengals are also -3 road favorites here, which bodes well for another potential Mixon-heavy game flow.

Rhamondre Stevenson, NE | DK: $6k, FD: $7.5k | @ CLE

We arrive at “chalk RB #1.” Damien Harris (hamstring) heads into week six on the wrong side of ‘questionable’ and, assuming he sits, Stevenson would presumably have a huge workload handed to him. After Harris went down with the injury after just six plays last week, Stevenson went on to handle 90% of snaps and a massive 27-touch count which represented a 48.2% touch% (3rd among RBs on the week). RBs are averaging 5.9 YPC against this Browns defense this season so you can imagine why Stevenson projects so well if he’s in line for another 20+ touch game.

Kenneth Walker III, SEA | DK: $5.4k, FD: $6.5k | vs. ARI

Allow me to introduce “Chalk RB #2” to the stage. Rashaad Penny (ankle/fibula) is done for the year which opens up an enormous opportunity for the highly-regarded rookie Kenneth Walker III, who the Seahawks took with the No. 41 overall pick in this year’s draft. I know everyone doesn’t keep up with college football, but Walker was a man among boys in his 2021 junior season at Michigan State where he rumbled for 1,636 yards (6.2 YPC) and 18 TDs. He has elite metrics across the board and he put those skills on display when he broke loose for a 69-yard touchdown run against New Orleans last week. The Cardinals have been fairly stout against the run this season but Walker has the tools that project him as a top NFL RB in the future. He’ll get his first big opportunity to show why this week.

Deon Jackson, IND | DK; $5.2k, FD: $5.6k | vs. JAX

Both Jonathan Taylor (ankle) and Nyheim Hines (concussion) will be unavailable for this game. While Philip Lindsay should mix in some backfield work, Jackson was the guy that the Colts turned to when they were trying to ice the game late in that week five Thursday night shootout against the Broncos. Jackson ultimately out-snapped Lindsay 46 to 30 and he was efficient, taking 13 carries for 62 yards (4.8 YPC) while catching 4-of-4 targets for 29 yards. He’ll stand out as a cheap pivot off of the higher-owned value RBs this week.

Darrell Henderson Jr., LAR | DK: $5.1k, FD: $5.7k | vs. CAR

For reasons unbeknownst to the public, RB Cam Akers will not play against Carolina this week and there is some buzz about his future with the Rams being in jeopardy. Regardless, that means a featured role could be there for Henderson. With the Rams being a hefty -10 home favorite over a hapless Panthers team, the game script should set up fairly well for Henderson. He also won’t be as highly owned as some of the other highlighted “chalk RBs.”

Eno Benjamin, ARI | DK: $4.6k, FD: $6.3k | @ SEA

And, finally, to wrap up the “week of the cheap chalk RBs,” we get to Eno Benjamin. With James Conner (ribs) and Darrel Willaims (knee) already ruled out for week six, Benjamin is the last RB standing on the three-deep depth chart. Of course, the Cardinals will have one or two more RBs active for this game and sixth-round rookie Keaontay Ingram should see some touches in his debut. But Benjamin is going to get the heaviest dosage of work here. He carries 15-20 touch upside against a bad Seahawks defense that ranks 24th in rush DVOA.

Wide Receivers to Consider

Potential wide receiver targets at high/mid/low price points.

Stefon Diggs, BUF | DK: $8.4k, FD: $8.9k | @ KC

Odd things can happen in the NFL which means this game could flip the script and not end up being a shootout at all. However, if we’re playing the odds, this game between two elite offenses should be high-scoring. With all of the value available at RB this week, it makes getting exposure to elite playmakers in this game extremely viable. Diggs owns an excellent 26.4% TGT% on the season and when the Bills have ventured into the redzone, as they so often do, Diggs’ target share rises to an incredible 37.9% RZ TGT%. The Chiefs have surrendered the 7th most FPPG to WRs this season and the Bills will align Diggs all over the formation in order to set him up with advantageous coverages. The huge week five game from Gabe Davis (3-171-2) will help alleviate full-on double/bracket coverage on Diggs as well.

Marquise Brown, ARI | DK: $7.2k, FD: $8.2k | @ SEA

With the return of DeAndre Hopkins (suspension) looming, this is the final week where Brown will be the unquestionable WR1 of this Cardinals offense. Brown has been excellent this season, averaging 11.0 TGT/gm, 7.6 rec/gm, 83.4 YPG, with three TDs. If we’re expecting a potential ceiling game from Kyler Murray, then Hollywood Brown should be in line for a huge game as well.

Mike Evans, TB | DK: $7k, FD: $7.7k | @ PIT

No Bucs player has been highlighted up to this point, but it’s a great week to gain some exposure to some Tampa Bay playmakers. The Bucs rank 2nd on the slate with a 27.8 implied point total. Tom Brady & Co. should face little resistance as they look to move the ball up and down the field against Pittsburgh. The Steelers have surrendered THE most FPPG to opposing WRs, including the 2nd most FPPG to perimeter WRs, where Mike Evans has run 71% of his routes. I believe he goes overlooked on this slate, yet he provides as much 30+ FP upside as just about any other WR on the slate.

Tyler Lockett, SEA | DK: $5.6k, FD: $7.5k | vs. ARI

No idea why Lockett continues to remain this affordable, specifically on DraftKings at just $5,600. In his last four games, Lockett is averaging 9.0 TGT/gm, 7.3 rec/gm, and 94.5 YPG with a pair of TDs. In a game that holds a 50+ total and close spread, Lockett has an excellent chance to keep his recent production rolling.

Romeo Doubs, GB | DK: $4.8k, FD: $5.5k | vs. NYJ

The Green Bay offense as a whole will go overlooked this week despite carrying a high 26.5 implied point total (3rd highest on the slate). QB Aaron Rodgers has been critical of his receiving corps this season, and some of that criticism has fallen on rookie Romeo Doubs. However, Doubs has seemingly earned his veteran QB’s trust in recent weeks. After reeling in 75.9% of his targets, Doubs can now safely be expected to play 80+% of snaps moving forward. He has primarily been utilized out of the slot (81% slot%) and the Jets have allowed the 12th most FPPG to slot WRs this season.

Alec Pierce, IND | DK: $4.3k, FD: $5.9k | vs. JAX

Pierce has seen 20 targets over the Colts’ last three games, including a season-high nine targets in week five. He has caught 15 of those targets (75% catch%) for 222 yards (14.8 YPR). Michael Pittman Jr. is still the top option in a relatively unexciting Colts passing attack, but Pierce has made quite the statement in recent weeks and should continue to see his snap share rise as a rookie. An extra emphasis may fall on Indy’s passing game with the absences of Jonathan Taylor and Nyheim Hines.

Tight Ends to Consider

Tight end targets at high/mid/low price points.

Mark Andrews, BAL | DK: $7k, FD: $7.8k | @ NYG

With WR Rashod Bateman (foot) sidelined for another week, Andrews’ target share will remain elite, especially for tight end usage. He already leads all NFL TEs with a 32.9% TGT% and when the Ravens get into the redzone, that bumps up to a 38.1% RZ TGT% -- and Andrews has caught 87.5% of his redzone targets to boot. While Travis Kelce (DK: $7.8k, FD: $8.3k) is tempting as well (if you’re looking to spend up on TE this week) but the Bills have really put the clamps on opposing TEs this season (including against talented TEs like Mark Andrews, Pat Freiermuth, and Tyler Higbee). Andrews gets the edge over Kelce since he’ll face a more advantageous match-up against the Giants defense.

Zach Ertz, ARI | DK: $4.9k, FD: $6k | @ SEA

The Seahawks have allowed the most FPPG to opposing TEs, and it’s not particularly close. Over the last four weeks, TEs are averaging a 4.5-92.8-1.0 receiving line and 30.8 DKFP/gm against the Seahawks. That will put the reliable Zach Ertz firmly in the DFS crosshairs this week. Across his last four games, Ertz has garnered 9.3 TGT/gm, 6.5 rec/gm, and 53.8 YPG. On top of that, he owns an astronomical 42.3% redzone TGT% and, with the injuries to two of the top three Cardinals RBs, Ertz may be utilized as an extension of the run game on short-to-intermediate passes.

Zach Gentry, PIT | DK: $2.6k, FD: $4.6k | vs. TB

It’s not the safest route to take but I always try to throw out one TE punt play, specifically for DraftKings players where the tight end position has a much lower floor salary. The Steelers will be without starting TE Pat Freiermuth (concussion) this Sunday. That leaves Gentry as the primary pass-catching Steelers TE. Freiermuth played 37 snaps (49% snap%) last week before exiting the game. Gentry went on to play 48 snaps (64% snap%) and caught 5-of-6 targets for 43 yards. Now, we can’t count on rookie QB Kenny Pickett attempting 52 passes again, as he did against Buffalo last week. But the Steelers (+10) are likely to be playing from behind for most (or all) of this game against the Bucs so Gentry may see a decent number of targets head his way once again. The Bucs have also been ‘sneaky bad’ against TEs this season, allowing the 6th most FPPG to the position.

Defenses to Consider

D/ST is a very volatile “position” and shouldn’t take up too much time in your DFS research. However, here are some D/STs I’m on board with this week.

Stud D/ST: San Francisco 49ers | DK: $3.7k, FD: $4.7k | @ ATL

Mid-Range: Jacksonville Jaguars | DK: $3k, FD: $4.3k | @ IND

DraftKings Value: Carolina Panthers | DK: $2.4k, FD: $3.7k | @ LAR

Stacks & Bring Backs 🥞

Below are a few team/game stack ideas to consider for this slate. In some examples, I will include a “bring back” option which will feature a normal "QB + Receiver" stack along with a player from the opposing team in the same game that could also benefit should the primary "QB + Receiver" stack go off.

QB + WR + Opp Receiver

Kyler Murray, Marquise Brown, Tyler Lockett

QB + WR + Opp Receiver

Geno Smith, DK Metcalf, Zach Ertz

QB + Two Pass Catchers (aka “Double Stack”)

Tom Brady, Mike Evans, Chris Godwin

QB + Two Pass Catchers (aka “Double Stack”)

Josh Allen, Stefon Diggs, Gabe Davis

Full Team Stack - QB/WR/RB

Kirk Cousins, Justin Jefferson, Dalvin Cook

Value Team Stack

Geno Smith, Tyler Lockett, Kenneth Walker III

“Ugly Duckling Stack” | QB + WR + Opp RB

Jacoby Brissett, Amari Cooper, Rhamondre Stevenson

Touchdown Call 🏈

Mark Andrews, BAL | DK: $7k, FD: $7.8k | @ NYG

Reminder: Follow @LineStarApp on Twitter and retweet the weekly Touchdown Calls tweet! Three retweeters are randomly selected and assigned a player from the TD calls between myself, @FlatTyler83, and @ShannonOnSports. If your player scores a touchdown, you’ll win your choice of cash (via PayPal) or a one-month subscription to LineStar!

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This is a two-pick NFL "Power Play" I have over on PrizePicks. Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but these props did stand out so I'll be rolling it out with confidence! If it hits, it will return a 3x payout!

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Once again, if you have any questions DM me on Twitter or hit me up in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck this week!

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