By: @Ryan_Humphries | LineStar Chat: @N1TRO

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It’s been a rocky road but we have made it into week seven. Our now weekly scheduling headache involves a little switch-up between the Bucs/Raiders and Seahawks/Cardinals. Originally, the Bucs/Raiders game was set to be featured as the Sunday Night Football game, but it will now swap time slots with the Seahawks/Cardinals game which was scheduled to play at 4:05 ET. This adjustment just dropped pretty much as I’m writing this so DraftKings, FanDuel, and other DFS sites have not made any adjustments to their main slates yet, but I assume they will do so shortly.

Since this newsletter is always focused on the main slate, I am going to work under the assumption that the Bucs/Raiders will land on the main slate while the Seahawks/Cardinals gets taken off. If you were looking to get exposure to some Seattle and Arizona players, in what is one of the most appealing games of the week from a fantasy perspective, then maybe consider playing the Sunday thru Monday slate instead. Your call! Now, let’s hope every other game stays in place!

Games to Target

Detroit Lions @ Atlanta Falcons (-2) | 56 O/U

DET: 26.5 implied points | ATL: 28.5 implied points

DET: 12th in offensive tempo | ATL: 3rd in offensive tempo

This game sticks out like a sore thumb for DFS purposes. Atlanta has obviously been a defense we’ve been looking to attack all season and Detroit’s defense has not been much better. The Falcons rank 25th in defense DVOA, the Lions follow shortly after, ranking 23rd. Both offenses move the ball at a high tempo, with Atlanta ranking only behind the Cowboys and Jets in seconds/play. Combine all of that with the fact that this match-up takes place in a dome, where scoring tends to be about 10% higher than non-indoor stadiums, and you’ve got a recipe for a high-scoring affair with plenty of plays and possessions.

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Los Angeles Chargers (-7.5) | 49 O/U

JAX: 20.8 implied points | LAC: 28.3 implied points

JAC: 7th in offensive tempo | LAC: 11th in offensive tempo

The other more obvious game stack to suggest would be the Green Bay Packers (-3.5) @ Houston Texans which has the highest current total of the week at 57, but I’m looking at this Jags/Chargers game as a bit more under-the-radar game to stack. First off, I’m enticed by the fact that both of these teams move the ball with a fast tempo, so we’re looking at a boost in plays/possessions. Jacksonville also possesses the worst defense DVOA in the league, though the Chargers are above average, ranking 12th, though they have surrendered 68 points in their last two games. The Jaguars have been the most pass-happy team in the league while passing on 67.7% of plays. Meanwhile, the Chargers have been more run-heavy this season while passing on just 53% of plays (ranks 26th), though that percentage has risen to 59.6% in the last three weeks (ranks 12th). Currently 56% of bets are coming in on the over for this game (per actionnetwork.com) and I’d be on board with placing a wager on that myself. The only thing scaring me off of this game a bit is the 7.5 point spread in favor of the Chargers, but I doubt this game gets away from the Jaguars even though they’ve been struggling considerably over the last month.

Quarterbacks to Consider

Potential quarterback targets at high/mid/low price points.

Josh Allen | DK: $7.7k, FD: $8.8k | @ NYJ | GPP Preferred

This is a full-fledged GPP leverage play. Back-to-back poor performances will drive down ownership on anyone. When those B2B poor performances come in two primetime games, when everybody is watching, then that applies even more. I really doubt Allen will land in more than 6-8% of lineups considering you have to pay a premium for him. Allen still has one of the highest ceilings at the position thanks to his rushing ability. He racked up 57 yards and a TD on the ground against the Jets in week one while also surpassing 300 yards passing with a pair of TDs. The blowout concern is obvious (BUF -13) but even if the Bills get up huge, I wouldn’t be surprised if they continue to run their normal offense in what may be a glorified scrimmage. Coming off of B2B losses, the Bills definitely need to get back in sync with tough games against New England, Seattle, and Arizona coming up. The Jets rank 31st in pass defense DVOA and are allowing a 71.8% completion rate. Perhaps this is another 300+ yard passing week for Allen with 50+ yards on the ground. But again, he’ll be more of a GPP leverage play for me since you typically can pay down at the QB position in cash.

Deshaun Watson | DK: $6.8k, FD: $8k | vs.GB | Cash & GPP

Rodgers & Co. are probably a little pissed about that blowout loss to Brady and the Bucs in week six and we know this Houston defense hasn’t been stopping anybody with a competent offense. Competence is on the rise in Houston with the departure of Bill O’Brien and Watson could be forced into a back-and-forth shootout or a come from behind gamescript against the Packers. Watson has also averaged 331 passing YPG over the last three weeks with a 9:2 TD:INT ratio and he’s rushed for 25 and 26 yards in the last two weeks. We could easily get another 30+ FP game out of Watson this week.

Gardner Minshew II | DK: $5.9k, FD: $7.2k | @ LAC | Cash & GPP

Minshew is simply almost always a good bet for around 20 FP or so, simply through volume alone. As mentioned above, the Jags are passing the ball at the highest rate of any team in the NFL (67.7%) which has led to an average of 40 pass attempts/gm for Minshew. The Chargers defense is also allowing 26.3 DKFP per game to QBs this season and have been susceptible to running QBs as they’re allowing 24.6 rushing yds/gm to quarterbacks. No one is confusing Minshew’s running ability for Lamar Jackson or Kyler Murray, but he can get you around 20 yards/gm on the ground (16.8 yd/gm this season) and he snagged his first rushing TD of the season last week.

Kyle Allen | DK: $5.2k, FD: $6.7k | vs. DAL | GPP Only - DK Preferred

Just throwing out a quick bonus QB play. Anyone following the NFL is aware of the production that Dallas defense is giving up. Allen threw for 280 yards and two TDs last week against the Giants (18.0 DKFP, 17.0 FDFP). I don’t see why Allen can’t have a similar, if not better, game against a Dallas team that also plays at the fastest pace in the league on offense (more possessions for Allen). Clearly he’s more of a play at $5,200 on DK, as he could very reasonably hit 4x value.

Running Backs to Consider

Potential running back targets at high/mid/low price points.

Aaron Jones | DK: $7.2k, FD: $8.5k | @ HOU | Cash & GPP

This is the smashiest of smash spots for Jones and there isn’t much need to over think things here or get too in-depth. The Texans have been getting dismantled on the ground this season, allowing 161.5 YPG to RBs at an absurd 5.94 YPA (though you can blame Derrick Henry for bumping those numbers up pretty substantially last week). Jones may not be the most talented receiving back, but he has seen between four and eight targets in every game this season. He’ll be chalky for sure, but this is what we should consider “good chalk.”

Kareem Hunt | DK: $6.8k, FD: $7.1k | @ CIN | Cash & GPP

Since taking on the lead role following Nick Chubb’s placement on IR after week four, Hunt has faced two very difficult match-ups. The Colts rank 6th in rush DVOA while the Steelers rank 1st. Now, the Browns will face off with a Bengals team that checks in at 23rd in rush DVOA and is allowing 5.2 YPA to RBs. The Browns also possess one of the best O-Lines in the NFL which ranks 2nd in adjusted line yards. Cleveland is also the 2nd most run-heavy team in the league with a 50.13% run play percentage. On top of the main rushing duties, Hunt should see about 3-5 targets, at minimum, in this spot. He is currently listed as questionable with a rib injury but it isn’t something that should keep him out of the game this Sunday.

Ronald Jones II | DK: $6.2k, FD: $6.1k | @ LV | Cash & GPP*

Remember that this is the SNF game that got shifted to 4:05 ET due to the Raiders O-Line currently being in quarantine. As of now, I’m going with the assumption that this game plays and likely gets moved onto the main slate -- though that is no where near a certainty. If that is the case, I think we can fire up RoJo, who has been absolutely crushing the last three weeks. He has had 100+ yards rushing in three straight, amassing 330 yards on 60 carries (5.5 YPA) in that span. He has also been targeted 16 times in those games. A now healthy Leonard Fournette may be looking to get back in the mix and muddle this backfield up again, but I’d be surprised if RoJo doesn’t handle primary back duties. The match-up doesn’t get much better, as the Raiders allow the 2nd most FPPG to RBs.

Clyde Edwards-Helaire | DK: $6.1k, FD: $7k | GPP Preferred

Does anyone else think CEH was motivated to run hard on Monday night following last week’s acquisition of Le’Veon Bell? This will, of course, be Bell’s first game in which he is eligible to suit up for the Chiefs, but CEH toted the rock 26 times for 161 yards (6.2 YPA) and brought in all four of his targets. This is all speculation, but we probably shouldn’t expect Bell to come in right away and take the lead RB role from CEH, or even cause much of a 50/50 split in his first week in a Chiefs uniform. The Broncos are a tough run defense (5th in DVOA) and the touchdowns haven’t really been coming for Edwards-Helaire. But he’ll make for a great GPP pivot as people look for more “sure things” at the RB position towards the top of DFS pricing this week.

Todd Gurley II | DK: $6k, FD: $6.6k | vs. DET | Cash & GPP

Gurley is getting some solid volume this season with 15+ touches in every game to date. The offense should be more capable and efficient with Dan Quinn off the scene, evidenced by the 40 points they dropped on the Vikings last week. Given, most of that was through the air and Gurley could only muster 47 yards rushing on 20 carries, but the sledding may be easier this Sunday. Detroit allows 5.2 YPA to RBs and surrenders the 6th most FPPG to the position. We should get a solid floor out of Gurley and he is a great bet to find the endzone for the sixth time this season.

Justin Jackson | DK: $4.9k, FD: $6.1k | vs. JAX | GPP Preferred

Like myself and many others assumed, Jackson appears to have taken on the full role that Austin Ekeler left behind prior to going to IR with a serious hamstring injury. When the Chargers played the Saints in week five, ahead of their bye, Jackson out-snapped Joshua Kelley 42 to 25 (59% snap rate to 35%). He appeared to be the drastically more effective running option and was more involved in the passing game as well, catching 5-of-6 targets for 23 yards. Of course, we can only trust a one week sample size so much, so for now Jackson will probably be a GPP value option for me. But if he does get upwards of 20 touches, he may crush in this spot against a Jags defense that surrenders the 5th most FPPG to RBs. It could be a positive gamescript as well with the Chargers favored by just over a touchdown.

Wide Receivers to Consider

Potential wide receiver targets at high/mid/low price points.

I couldn’t settle on one particular expensive WR to highlight near the top of pricing (all are viable GPP targets) so I’ll pretty much be focusing on WRs priced in the mid-range and below.

Tyreek Hill | DK: $6.4k, FD: $8k | @ DEN | Cash & GPP

Hill is priced appropriately on FD, but what is up with this $6,400 price tag on DK? I get Hill hasn’t quite broken open slates this season like he has the capability of doing, but he scored a TD in each of the first five games and has had just the one dud that came last week (but I believe DFS pricing was already released by that point). Especially with Sammy Watkins likely sidelined again, you can fire up Hill in all formats on DK and he’s still an obvious GPP candidate on FanDuel.

Keenan Allen | DK: $6.2k, FD: $7k | vs. JAX | GPP Preferred

Allen had to exit the Chargers last game in week five during the first quarter due to back spasms, however he should be a go this Sunday. In the three games with Herbert in at starter and Allen has been healthy, he has seen 10, 19, and 12 targets. Now he’ll go up against a Jags defense that allows the highest pass completion rate in the NFL at 73.44%.

Robby Anderson | DK: $6k, FD: $6.4k | @ NO | Cash & GPP

Anderson just faced the Bears, who possess the 2nd best pass defense DVOA, and he still came away with four receptions for 77 yards. If that is going to be his floor, then continue to sign me up at these salaries. He commands a very strong 26.17% target share in the Panthers passing attack. He should see a positive gamescript as Carolina travels to the Superdome as 7.5 point underdogs.

Jamison Crowder | DK: $5.9k, FD: $6.3k | vs. BUF | Cash & GPP

The Jets stink. Nobody is going to argue that. But the one fantasy relevant part of this Jets offense is Crowder, who is being force-fed targets by default. He leads the slate with 11.0 targets/gm and has an elite 31.8% target share. Yeah, those are targets coming from Joe Flacco but volume is king in DFS and not many players are getting the sort of opportunities that Crowder is being given. Buffalo is a solid match-up, as they rank 28th in pass defense DVOA and are allowing a 70.3% completion rate. Crowder gets an obvious bump in full PPR formats.

Terry McLaurin | DK: $5.8k, FD: $7.1k | vs. DAL | Cash & GPP

Yeah, I’m living in this mid-range and ya can’t stop me because there are just so many targets going to guys around this price point. McLaurin actually leads the entire NFL, owning 49% of his teams total air yards and he’s garnering nearly ten targets a game. Give me that upside all day against a terrible Dallas secondary that has allowed 46.8 DKFP per game to opposing WRs.

AJ Green | DK: $4.3k, FD: $5.6k | vs. CLE | GPP Preferred

Man, it’s so odd seeing these kind of salaries next to AJ Green’s name but he obviously hasn’t been a super relevant fantasy asset in a while. He is coming off of an eight catch (on 11 targets) game for 98 yards. If we remember back to weeks one and two, Joe Burrow also sent 22 total targets his way as well but Green only came away with eight catches for 80 yards. Needless to say, it has taken a while for the rookie QB and oft-injured veteran WR to consistently connect but perhaps last week is the start of a trend.

Diontae Johnson | DK: $4.2k, FD: $5.8k | @ TEN | GPP Preferred

Johnson looked like he was on the verge of a breakout season after the first couple of weeks but injuries quickly sent that hype train off the rails. Since then, rookie WR Chase Claypool is the guy generating all of the buzz following a monstrous week five performance. Johnson has been practicing in full this week so we should expect him back in action against a Titans team that gives up the 4th most FPPG to WRs. Johnson will be a high upside GPP flier in this match-up.

Tight Ends to Consider

Tight end targets at high/mid/low price points.

TJ Hockenson | DK: $5k, FD: $5.9k | @ ATL | Cash & GPP

I’m tempted to pay up for Travis Kelce (DK: $6.3k, FD: $7.9k) this week considering he has put up WR1-like numbers the last couple games, but Hockenson draws what is clearly a terrific match-up. The Falcons allow the 3rd most FPPG to TEs and Hockenson has either caught a TD or surpassed 53 receiving yard in every game this season. In the wasteland that is the tight end position, that’s near-elite production.

Hunter Henry | DK: $4.5k, FD: $5.8k | vs. JAX | Cash & GPP

Henry has seen either seven or eight targets head his way in 4-of-5 games this season. Unfortunately, he has only caught a little over half of his targets. But hearkening back to the match-up with the Jags, they allow the highest completion rate in the NFL as well as the 9th most FPPG to TEs. Henry should be another viable option if you can’t pay top dollar for a Kelce/Kittle/Waller.

Austin Hooper | DK: $4k, FD: $5.4k | @ CIN | GPP Preferred

Hooper has brought in five receptions in each of the Browns last three games off of 7, 10, and 6 targets, respectively. It has taken some time for the Browns to incorporate Hooper into their 2020 passing attack, but things seem to be clicking lately. Not a bad option if you’re paying down at TE. The Bengals have also allowed the 6th most FPPG to TEs.

Defenses to Consider

D/ST is a very volatile “position” and shouldn’t take up too much time in your DFS research. However, here are two D/STs I’m on board with this week.

Safer but more expensive option:

Kansas City Chiefs | DK: $4.3k, FD: $4.6k | @ DEN

The Bills (DK: $4.7k, FD: $5k) obviously draw the primo Jets match-up, but honestly that defense has not been impressive at all this year. So I’m fine saving a few hundred bucks and going down to the Chiefs, who also draw a great match-up and can actually get some sacks & turnovers on the board.

Riskier but more affordable option:

Washington Football Team | DK: $2.5k, FD: $3.8k | vs. DAL

Honestly, not that risky with Andy Dalton at the helm. The Cardinals DST racked up four turnovers and three sacks against the ‘Boys last week and came away with 15.0 FP. Washington’s defense is super affordable and I’ll happily take 6-8 FP from ‘em in this spot.

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