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- Top NFL DFS Plays Week #7 (Main Slate) | Navigating the Bye Week Blues
Top NFL DFS Plays Week #7 (Main Slate) | Navigating the Bye Week Blues
It's not the sexiest NFL slate on tap this week but there are quite a few games that carry some moderately high intrigue. We'll get a look at some of the top DFS plays to target this Sunday.
By: @Ryan_Humphries
Week 7 NFL PreSnap Podcast šļø
Catch Tyler Wiemann and Shannon Sommerville's run down on this Sunday's NFL DFS main slate!
Also, for anyone looking to roll out some NFL props this week, be sure to check out the info and videos at the end of this article featuring usage of LineStar's new Prop Edge+ for NFL tool. This tool can help make prop bettors some extra cash -- especially on sites like PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!
A free two-pick PrizePicks "Power Play" is posted at the end of this article as well!
Week 7 DFS Main Slate Rundown š
We're missing some premiere fantasy studs with the Bills, Eagles, Vikings, and Rams all on bye this week. No matter! We still have a jam-packed 11-game slate to get our hands on! Let's go crush it!
Main slate match-ups with implied point totals and spreads:
Weather Report
As a reminder, weather plays less of a factor in football than it does in other sports but it is still worth making note of any games that could see wet conditions, high winds, or (when we get into the winter months) frigid, snowy conditions.
The forecasts can always change so, as always, run a final weather check closer to kickoff!
CLE @ BAL (1:00 ET, 45.5 O/U): Chance for rain.
GB @ WAS (1:00 ET, 41.5 O/U): Chance for rain.
NYJ @ DEN (4:05 ET, 38 O/U): 15-20 mph winds.
Quarterbacks to Consider
Potential quarterback targets at high/mid/low price points.
Joe Burrow, CIN | DK: $6.9k, FD: $8.3k | vs. ATL
Joey B has provided a strong floor all season and last week we got a glimpse at a ceiling performance by way of 300 yards passing, three TDs, and an extra TD on the ground plus 25 yards rushing. A notable concern with Burrow is often centered around his pass protection, or lack thereof. Burrow has been sacked 21 times this season (5th most). Fortunately, heāll face a Falcons defense that applies pressure to the quarterback on an NFL-low 12.2% of dropbacks and has just eight sacks on the season (T-2nd fewest).
Dak Prescott, DAL | DK: $6.7k, FD: $7.5k | vs. DET
Prescott is set to return as the Cowboysā starting QB for the first time since injuring his thumb way back in week one. Iām not sure he could jump back into NFL action in a better scenario. The Cowboys are at home facing a Lions defense that ranks 32nd in pass DVOA and allows an offensive score on an NFL-high 47.3% of drives. All Cowboys players receive a notable upgrade this week and Dak has arguably as much upside as any QB on the slateā¦ so long as there isnāt much rust to shake off.
Matt Ryan, IND | DK: $5.4k, FD: $7.3k | @ TEN
Matt Ryan has had a couple of outright dud performances this season but we got a glimpse at a vintage Matty Ice ceiling game last week against the Jags when he threw for 389 yards and three scores. The return of RB Jonathan Taylor may negatively impact Ryanās overall pass attempts but could turn out to be a net positive as far as overall production goes. The Titans' secondary has been highly exploitable this season as well. They are surrendering the 2nd most FPPG to QBs and an NFL-high 7.4 net yards gained per pass attempt. If youāre looking to save some salary at QB this week, Matt Ryan should land on your radar.
Running Backs to Consider
Potential running back targets at high/mid/low price points.
Austin Ekeler, LAC | DK: $8.3k, FD: $9.5k | vs. SEA
After failing to hit paydirt across the first three weeks, Ekeler now has six TDs scored in his last three games. His usage as a receiver remains elite. Ekeler is being fed a whopping 8.2 targets per game which is the sort of volume that some teamās WR1s donāt see. Of course, Ekelerās targets are coming almost exclusively around the line of scrimmage, but all of those receptions help add to his strong floor, especially on DraftKings given the full PPR scoring. The Seahawks are allowing the 6th most FPPG to RBs as well as the 6th most receptions per game to RBs. This game features the highest total of the week and Ekeler should remain a strong spend-up optionā¦ especially if WR Keenan Allen (hamstring/questionable) misses yet another game. Ekelerās floor also receives a bump with Joshua Kelley (knee) hitting the IR.
Saquon Barkley, NYG | DK: $7.9k, FD: $9.3k | @ JAX
Barkley continues to handle elite usage and leads all RBs on the slate with 23.3 touches/gm and 128.5 total YPG. The Jaguars (9th in rush DVOA) may not represent the best match-up, but they are allowing a load of receptions to RBs this season with 7.8 receptions/gm allowed to RBs (2nd most in NFL). So, if itās tough sledding in the run game, Barkley could offset that with some strong production as a pass catcher.
Josh Jacobs, LV | DK: $6.5k, FD: $8.6k | vs. HOU
Running backs against Houston, running backs against Houston, running backs against Houston. Did you know running backs against Houston have averaged the most FPPG in the NFL? Itās true. Also, Jacobs has gone absolutely nuts in his last two games racking up a combined 298 yards on 49 carries (6.1 YPC) with three TDs. He also caught 10-of-11 targets for another 70 yards in those games. It would be a bit presumptuous to assume Jacobs will post a third consecutive 30+ FP game butā¦ it is the right match-up to do it.
Kenneth Walker III, SEA | DK: $5.8k, FD: $7.3k | @ LAC
Walker put his talent on full display in his first NFL game where he operated as the teamās primary RB. He played 69% of the snaps while accounting for 21 of Seattleās 30 rush attempts. Walker ripped off chunk yardage with long gains of 34, 21, and 17 yards. His touchdown run also came from 11 yards out. The Chargers run defense has been toasted this season and theyāre allowing 5.8 YPC to RBs over their last four games. Walker should continue to thrive and is a 20+ touch candidate in what is expected to be a high-scoring affair.
Kenneth Walker: RB1 š„
ā PFF Fantasy Football (@PFF_Fantasy)
10:30 PM ā¢ Oct 16, 2022
Wide Receivers to Consider
Potential wide receiver targets at high/mid/low price points.
Deebo Samuel, SF | DK: $7.6k, FD: $7.7k | vs. KC
The major news surrounding the 49ers this week is the trade acquisition of superstar RB Christian McCaffrey. CMCās involvement in this weekās game plan is relatively unknown but a lack of significant movement in the spread for this game leads me to believe that McCaffrey will, at most, play a very limited role. So, in a game where theyāll be forced to keep up with a high-powered Chiefs offense, Deebo Samuel could be the ādo-it-allā weapon for the 49ers once again. The Chiefs have allowed a 30+ DKFP performance to their opponentās WR1 in each of the last three games (Wk6 S. Diggs: 33.8 FP, Wk5 D. Adams: 30.4 FP, Wk4 M. Evans: 33.3 FP). Overall, the Chiefs are allowing the 3rd most FPPG to WRs this season. Samuel is more of a GPP play but he does carry some great upside at low projected ownership this Sunday.
CeeDee Lamb, DAL | DK: $6.8k, FD: $7.7k | vs. DET
Lamb gets a significant QB upgrade with Dak Prescott back at the helm, however, his DFS salaries still seem to be priced as if Cooper Rush was still the guy throwing him the ball. As mentioned above with Prescott, this Lions' defense ranks 32nd in pass DVOA and allows an offensive score on a league-high 47.3% of drives. As weāve seen on several occasions this season, Detroit is good enough offensively to the point that they can force opposing teams to keep their foot on the gas. We can expect Lamb to have a great game this Sunday.
Feel free to consider Michael Gallup (DK: $5.1k, FD: $6.1k) as a strong option this week as well.
Allen Lazard, GB | DK: $6.1k, FD: $6.6k | @ WAS
Lazard has been Aaron Rodgersā most reliable target lately and he has led all Packers WRs with a 94% snap% over the last four games. In those four games, Lazard is seeing a team-high 7.8 TGT/gm and a 40.5% share of the Packersā total air yards. The Commanders have been weak against opposing WRs this season, allowing the 6th most FPPG. Theyāre particularly bad on the perimeter which is where Lazard runs most of his routes. With Randall Cobb (ankle) on IR and Christian Watson set to miss another game with a hamstring injury, Lazardās target share looks to be very safe. After losing to the Giants and Jets in the last two weeks, you know Aaron Rodgers and this Green Bay offense will be looking to get it into gear this Sunday.
Brandin Cooks, HOU | DK: $6k, FD: $6.3k | @ LV
Cooks is stuck in a bad QB situation but he is easily the top receiving option on this Texans team. Cooks owns an extremely strong 27.6% TGT%, including a massive 44.4% redzone TGT%. Unfortunately, the Texans arenāt getting into the redzone very much but perhaps theyāll find some success against this mediocre Raiders defense that has allowed an offensive score on 39.2% of drives (11th highest). We saw last season that Cooks can have a great ceiling even with Davis Mills as his QB. Weāre just waiting on Cooks to pull one of those big games out of his pocketā¦ perhaps this is the week.
Alec Pierce, IND | DK: $4.6k, FD: $6.1k | @ TEN
Pierce has emerged as an excellent number two receiving option behind Michael Pittman Jr. He actually leads the Colts with a 33.8% share of the teamās air yards over their last four games. Pierce is averaging an impressive 15.1 yards/reception this season and scored his first career touchdown last week. Heāll draw a dream match-up against a Titans secondary that allows the most FPPG to perimeter WRs (Pierce: 93% perimeter%).
Alec Pierce is HIM š„ (via @NFL)
ā NFL Rookie Watch (@NFLRookieWatxh)
8:07 PM ā¢ Oct 16, 2022
Tight Ends to Consider
Tight end targets at high/mid/low price points.
Mark Andrews, BAL | DK: $7.4k, FD: $8.5k | vs. CLE
Spending up at tight end is always one way to be contrarian. If weāre comparing Andrews to similarly priced WRs, heās priced the same as Michael Pittman Jr. on DraftKings and shares the same salary as JaāMarr Chase on FanDuel. WRs are typically going to have more upside than even the best tight ends, but if you compared overall production. Andrews has been the better DFS play more often than either of those two WRs. Also, a bit of an interesting fact I saw: Andrews has not had to block on a single QB dropback this season, which is highly unusual for any tight end. He also owns a monster 39.3% redzone TGT%. Andrews is on the injury report with a knee issue and is officially questionable for this game. However, all signs point towards him trending in the right direction.
Hayden Hurst, CIN | DK: $3.5k, FD: $4.9k | vs. ATL
Hurst may be the third or fourth option when it comes to the Bengals' passing attack but he has turned in a respectable season. Fortunately, the Bengals are a pass-heavy team (62.3% pass play%, ranks 10th) and Hurst has seen at least seven targets in 3-of-6 games this season. Tight ends against the Falcons have averaged the second-most targets per game this season. Over their last four games, Atlanta is allowing an average of 8.0 receptions and 80.5 yards to opposing TEs.
Foster Moreau, LV | DK: $2.8k, FD: $4.6k | vs. HOU
Darren Waller (hamstring) has been ruled out this week so we can look for Foster Moreau to step in as the primary receiving tight end. Moreau has been a little banged up with a knee injury and has missed the last two games, but he comes out of the Raidersā bye week without an injury designation. In weeks two and three, Moreau caught a combined 6-of-8 targets for 74 yards and that was while Waller was healthy and on the field. If Moreau sees a snap rate bump to around 80%, he could come away as one of the best values at the position. Las Vegas should have no major issues moving the ball against this Houston defense.
Defenses to Consider
D/ST is a very volatile āpositionā and shouldnāt take up too much time in your DFS research. However, here are some D/STs Iām on board with this week.
Stud D/ST: Tampa Bay Buccaneers | DK: $3.9k, FD: $5k | @ CAR
Mid-Range D/ST: Green Bay Packers | DK: $3.4k, FD: $4.5k | @ WAS
Value D/ST: New York Jets | DK: $2.6k, FD: $4.3k | @ DEN
Stacks & Bring Backs š„
Below are a few team/game stack ideas to consider for this slate. In some examples, I will include a ābring backā option which will feature a normal "QB + Receiver" stack along with a player from the opposing team in the same game that could also benefit should the primary "QB + Receiver" stack go off.
QB + WR/TE + Opp Receiver
Lamar Jackson, Mark Andrews, Amari Cooper
QB + WR/TE + Opp Receiver
Justin Herbert, Mike Williams, DK Metcalf
QB + Two Pass Catchers (aka āDouble Stackā)
Joe Burrow, JaāMarr Chase, Hayden Hurst
QB + Two Pass Catchers (aka āDouble Stackā)
Matt Ryan, Michael Pittman Jr., Alec Pierce
Full Team Stack - QB/WR/RB
Derek Carr, Davante Adams, Josh Jacobs
Value Team Stack
Geno Smith, Tyler Lockett, Kenneth Walker III
āUgly Duckling Game Stackā | QB + WR + Opp WR
Taylor Heinicke, Terry McLaurin, Allen Lazard
Touchdown Call š
Kenneth Walker III, SEA | DK: $5.8k, FD: $7.3k | @ LAC
Reminder: Follow @LineStarApp on Twitter and retweet the weekly Touchdown Calls tweet! Three retweeters are randomly selected and assigned a player from the TD calls between myself, @FlatTyler83, and @ShannonOnSports. If your player scores a touchdown, youāll win your choice of cash (via PayPal) or a one-month subscription to LineStar!
š„Touchdown Callsš„
Retweet for a chance to win $25 (via PayPal) or 1 month of LineStar Premium!
@flattyler83- Davante Adams
@ShannonOnSports- Michael Gallup
@Ryan_Humphries- Kenneth Walker3 people will be picked randomly. If your player gets in the endzone, you win!
#TDā ššš”šš¦š§šš„ ššš¦ & š£š„š¢š£š¦ (@LineStarApp)
6:05 PM ā¢ Oct 21, 2022
PrizePicks Sunday NFL Power Play ā”
This is a two-pick NFL "Power Play" I have over on PrizePicks. Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but these props did stand out so I'll be rolling it out with confidence! If it hits, it will return a 3x payout!
Alec Pierce MORE than 45.5 Receiving Yards
CeeDee Lamb MORE than 15.5 Fantasy Score
š Props Edge+ š
In LineStarās ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props Edge+ for NFL ā available for LineStar Premium users! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!
Speaking of props, put the Props Edge+ tool to use by signing up for PrizePicks (Promo code: BETFULLY)or Underdog (Promo code: LINESTAR). 100% match on deposits up to $100 PLUS a free two-month subscription to LineStar Premium. Many people may not realize that you can legally place prop bets in most states using UnderDog (or PrizePicks) ā itās called Pick'Em, and itās incredibly easy.
Once again, if you have any questions DM me on Twitter or hit me up in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck this week!
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